美国政府"停摆"创史上最长纪录 中新社华盛顿11月5日电 (记者 陈孟统)美国联邦政府"停摆"的历史最长纪录在11月5日被打破，达36天。 由于国会两党仍毫无妥协之意，这项纪录还将不断被刷新。 相比七年前两党因修建边境墙分歧造成的"停摆"，此次美国政府"停摆"的内因更加复杂，不仅涉及医疗 保险补贴政策，而且在拨款数额、外援削减以及政策附加条款等议题上均陷入谈判僵局。尽管共和党人 同时掌控着国会参众两院，但53比47的议席格局，不足以达到推进大部分立法所需的60票门槛。 "停摆"带来的外溢负面效应，也在倒逼美国两党尽快达成妥协。美国有线电视新闻网(CNN)报道指出， 11月是美国民众的医保续保季，也是感恩节出行季。价格飙升的保单，大面积延误的假日航班，都有可 能成为推动两党坐到谈判桌前的"X因素"。(完) 来源：中国新闻网 《华盛顿邮报》评论指出，这场史上最长的"停摆"最直接的导火索是民主党要求国会延长医保补贴拨 款，而分歧的背后是两党对未来政策方向上的互不相让。"过去还有妥协的可能，但如今这种妥协心理 在双方支持者的心中已经消失了。" 8月以来，美国就业市场出现疲软迹象。美国商会在日前发布的一份报告中估算，" ...

Group 1 - The core reason for the government shutdown is the dispute over extending healthcare subsidy policies, with Democrats advocating for the extension of the Affordable Care Act's enhanced tax credits and Republicans opposing the bundling of these issues with temporary funding [1][8][41] - The market anticipates the government shutdown could last over 15 days, with a 67% probability for such a duration based on trading predictions [1][9][41] Group 2 - During the government shutdown, non-essential government activities cease, while essential services related to life, property, and national security continue to operate [2][12][42] - Federal statistical data releases may be suspended, affecting key economic indicators such as retail sales, employment rates, and CPI [2][14][42] Group 3 - Historically, the U.S. government has experienced 11 shutdowns since 1980, averaging 8.6 days in duration, with the longest being 34 days [3][16][43] - Shutdowns are typically triggered by two types of disputes: fiscal policy disagreements and political maneuvering, often involving healthcare and immigration policies [3][21][22][43] Group 4 - The impact of a government shutdown on GDP is relatively minor, with a one-month shutdown estimated to reduce GDP by only 0.02% [4][24][44] - The primary channels through which shutdowns affect the economy include federal employee income and policy uncertainty, with wage back-pay mitigating long-term impacts [4][24][44] Group 5 - Government shutdowns generally have minimal effects on non-farm employment, although they may temporarily raise the unemployment rate, which typically reverts after the government reopens [5][29][30][45] - For instance, the 2019 shutdown led to a temporary increase in the unemployment rate by 0.1 percentage points, which later decreased by 0.2 points upon reopening [5][30][45] Group 6 - The long-term effects of government shutdowns on major asset classes are limited, with the S&P 500 index showing an average increase of 2.91% during shutdown periods [6][35][46] - U.S. Treasury yields tend to decline during shutdowns, with the 10-year yield averaging a drop of 2.25 basis points [6][36][46] - The U.S. dollar typically weakens slightly, averaging a decline of 0.30%, while gold prices may rise modestly [6][36][46]

Group 1: Government Shutdown Reasons and Duration - The primary reason for the government shutdown is the dispute over extending healthcare subsidies, particularly the tax credits under the Affordable Care Act, with Democrats advocating for extension and Republicans opposing it[2]. - The market predicts the shutdown could last over 15 days, with a 67% probability for this duration as of October 6[3]. - Historically, the U.S. government has experienced 11 shutdowns since 1980, averaging 8.6 days in duration, with October being a peak month for such events[5][19]. Group 2: Economic Impact - A government shutdown lasting one month is estimated to impact GDP by only 0.02%, based on past data from a 34-day shutdown in 2019, which resulted in a permanent GDP loss of approximately $30 billion[6][26]. - Employment effects are minimal, with temporary unemployment potentially rising by 0.1 percentage points during a shutdown, but typically returning to normal levels shortly after[7][31]. Group 3: Market Reactions - During past shutdowns, the S&P 500 index has shown an average increase of 2.91% with a 75% success rate of positive returns[8][34]. - U.S. Treasury yields tend to decline during shutdowns, with 10-year bonds averaging a drop of 2.25 basis points and 2-year bonds dropping by 8 basis points[8][34]. - The U.S. dollar generally weakens slightly during shutdowns, averaging a decline of 0.30%[8][34].

Group 1: Government Shutdown Reasons and Duration - The primary reason for the government shutdown is the dispute over extending healthcare subsidies, with Democrats advocating for the extension of the Affordable Care Act's tax credits and Republicans opposing this linkage[1][12]. - Market predictions indicate a shutdown duration of over 15 days has a 67% probability, with the House passing a temporary funding bill but the Senate failing to reach the required 60 votes[2][13]. Group 2: Impact on Government Operations and Economic Indicators - During the shutdown, non-essential government activities cease, affecting the release of key statistical data such as retail sales and employment figures, while essential services like military and social security continue[3][16]. - Historically, the U.S. government has experienced 11 shutdowns since 1980, averaging 8.6 days, with the longest lasting 34 days[4][20]. Group 3: Economic Impact of Shutdown - A one-month shutdown is estimated to impact GDP by only 0.02%, with the 2019 shutdown resulting in a permanent GDP loss of approximately $30 billion, also around 0.02% of that year's GDP[5][28]. - The unemployment rate may see a temporary increase of 0.1 percentage points during a shutdown, but typically returns to normal levels shortly after[6][34]. Group 4: Market Reactions to Shutdown - Historical data shows that the S&P 500 index has an average increase of 2.91% during shutdowns, with a 75% success rate of positive returns[7][38]. - U.S. Treasury yields tend to decline during shutdowns, with 10-year bonds averaging a drop of 2.25 basis points and 2-year bonds dropping 8 basis points[7][38].