Core Viewpoint - Cleveland Fed President Harmack maintains a cautious stance on interest rate cuts as long as inflation remains a threat, emphasizing the need for moderate tightening to bring inflation back to target levels [1] Group 1: Inflation Concerns - Harmack stated that inflation has been above target for four consecutive years and must be controlled [1] - She expressed concerns about prematurely shifting to a loose monetary policy, which could reignite inflation pressures [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - This viewpoint contrasts sharply with market sentiment, as Fed Chair Powell indicated that current conditions "may require" policy easing, leading to a significant market bet on a rate cut in September [1] - According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders estimate a nearly 90% probability of a rate cut by the FOMC in September [1] Group 3: Neutral Interest Rate - Harmack revealed her assessment of the so-called "neutral interest rate" is higher than that of most Fed officials [1] - As a former Goldman Sachs executive, she will not have voting rights on the FOMC until 2026 [1] Group 4: Other Hawkish Voices - Kansas City Fed President Schmid also expressed skepticism about rate cuts in a recent interview [1] - Schmid is a voting member of the FOMC this year but will not have voting rights again until 2028 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in Shenzhen is showing signs of recovery, with an increase in second-hand housing transactions, but industry professionals are calling for more policy support to boost market sentiment [1][3][6]. Market Performance - Despite July and August being traditionally slow months for the real estate market, Shenzhen's second-hand housing market has seen a positive start in August, with a recorded transaction volume of 1,216 units from August 4 to August 10, reflecting a 2.7% week-on-week increase [3]. - The transaction rate for second-hand residential viewings in Shenzhen increased to 4.22% as of August 11, up by 0.26 percentage points from July, indicating a growing interest among buyers [3]. - Daily average signing volume in early August rose by 6.4% compared to July and increased by 32.5% year-on-year [3]. Market Sentiment - Industry professionals express mixed feelings about the market, noting that while some segments, such as popular new properties and affordable homes, are performing well, many other listings are still facing challenges [3][5]. - The sentiment among real estate agents suggests that the previous policy relaxation effects are fading, and most buyers are still waiting for new supportive measures [3][5]. Future Expectations - As the traditional peak season for real estate, "Golden September and Silver October," approaches, there are heightened expectations for market activity [7]. - Analysts believe that recent policy changes in Beijing could positively influence market expectations and stimulate housing demand, although the focus remains on domestic demand rather than opening up to external buyers [7]. - The overall trend indicates that while some new properties may perform well, the new housing market is likely to face greater downward pressure compared to the second-hand market [5][7].

当全球大多数央行选择观望特朗普关税的影响时，瑞士、瑞典和挪威在24小时内接连降息。 本周全球18国央行管理着超过40%的全球经济体量，但大多数都选择了按兵不动。美联储、日本央行、 英国央行，那么巴基斯坦、土耳其和智利央行都维持了利率不变。 在这种普遍看法的背景下，欧洲三国的同步化宽松幅度更加凸显。瑞士央行周四宣布降息25个基点，而 就在今年3月，该行官员还暗示宽松的政策可能已经结束。瑞典央行同样在一天前实施了类似的降息。 最令市场意外的是挪威央行的转向。 彭博社调查的经济学家无一预测挪威将在周四降息25个基点，这 是该国疫情后首次降息。 随着7月9日美国可能重新实施惩罚性贸易关税的最后期限，加上俄乌的持续不确定性和美国对伊朗的潜 在打击的威胁，全球政策制定者正面临着边境的复杂局面。欧洲三国的提前行动，或许是对这种不确定 性的最直接回应。 通胀消退 瑞士的通胀压力几乎消失。5月份消费者物价同比下跌0.1%，瑞士央行最新预测显示今年通胀率飙升 0.2%。这主要归因于避险资金推动瑞郎走强，自特朗普上任以来，瑞郎美元兑美元均大幅升值。 瑞典的情况从年初的通胀飙升开始，同时这个北欧最大经济体开始复苏。瑞典央行行长Eri ...

智通财经6月19日电，英国央行称以"逐步且谨慎"的办法放松政策是适当的。 ...