铜月报（2026 年2月） 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 2026-2-27 中航期货 目录 02 行情回顾 01 后市研判 03 宏观面 04 基本面 | 1 0 | | --- | | 判 T | | R 研 A | | 市 P | | 后 | 3月铜价建议回调偏多对待 2月铜价跟随贵金属高位回落进入修整阶段，不过价格韧性极强，沪铜10万元上方，LME铜13000美元附近震荡反复，春节期间铜价维持高位。 宏观面：海外风险聚焦于"政策路径分歧"与"地缘政治扰动"。1月非农就业人口增加13万人，大幅高于市场预期，创2025年4月以来最大增幅；失 业率小幅意外降至4.3%，数据强化劳动力市场温和降温预期，中东地缘风险犹存，关注美伊后续进展；国内方面，内需主导，国内深入实施提振消费 专项行动，中国将进入"两会时间"。 基本面来看，全球铜矿品位下降、新项目投产缓慢、资本开支不足等问题难以在短期内解决 全球铜矿品位下降、新项目投产缓慢、资本开支不足等问题难以在短期内解决，铜精矿现货 TC/RC 精矿现货 TC/RC 持 TC/RC 持续处于深度负值区间，冶炼端利 润承压，国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The sudden 5% drop in gold prices, marking the largest single-day decline of the year, reflects a collision between market expectations and reality, ending a three-month bullish trend [1] Group 1: Market Expectations - The dovish signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in August ignited expectations for a rate cut in September, leading to a surge in gold prices from $3,200 to $4,400, a rise of over 37% [2] - The realization of the rate cut led the market to reassess gold's valuation, as the fulfillment of rate cut expectations limited further stimulus potential, causing a shift from expectation-driven to reality-validated momentum [2] Group 2: Data Vacuum - The U.S. government shutdown in November resulted in a "data vacuum," delaying the release of key economic indicators such as non-farm payrolls and CPI, which are crucial for assessing economic fundamentals [3] - The absence of data hindered investors' ability to evaluate inflation pressures or employment market changes, leading to a lack of sustained risk aversion [4] Group 3: Technical Factors - Technically, gold entered an overbought territory around $4,400, with the RSI indicator showing extreme optimism, making it susceptible to negative signals that could trigger technical sell-offs [5] - On November 20, profit-taking by institutional investors initiated a rapid decline in gold prices, resulting in a domino effect of stop-loss triggers and automated sell-offs, shifting the market from buying to panic selling [5] Group 4: Policy Divergence - Despite the rate cut in September, divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding future policy became apparent, with some officials suggesting a pause in rate cuts, indicating a potential shift towards a neutral monetary policy [6] - This divergence contrasted with previous expectations of continued easing, diminishing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [7] - The uncertainty surrounding fiscal policy during the government shutdown heightened concerns about "stagflation" risks, challenging gold's value preservation attributes [7] Group 5: Future Outlook - The recent decline in gold prices is viewed as a necessary correction, reflecting a transition from market exuberance to a more sober assessment of reality, as previous gains had already priced in the benefits of rate cuts [7] - Future gold price movements will depend on the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory, the timing of economic data releases, and changes in geopolitical risks, while its safe-haven properties remain intact despite complex price fluctuations [7]