张尧浠：降息前景乐观情绪缓解、金价多头受限看涨前景不变 上交易日周一(8月25日)：国际黄金震荡收跌，随着市场对降息前景的乐观情绪有所平息，市场焦点转向即将公布的美国PCE数据，以寻找美联储政策路径 的线索，再加上美元反弹收复上周五大部分跌幅，抑制了金价涨幅，使其未能进一步反弹走强，但也仍运行在60日及中轨上方，多头仍具看涨前景，下方 中轨线及100日均线支撑，仍是继续看涨反弹的机会。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于3371.93美元/盎司，日内整体处于震荡走盘模式，于早盘10点时段录得日内低点3359.65美元，又于美盘23点时段录得日内高 点3375.94美元，之后则遇阻维持回撤，最终收于3365.52美元，日振幅16.29美元，收跌6.71美元，跌幅0.2%。 展望今日周二(8月26日)：国际黄金开盘延续隔夜尾盘回落趋势先行表现走弱，以及美元指数开盘先行走强，也对其产生利空压力，不过金价由于下方也 有众多均线支撑，故此，如触及日内短线支撑位置，也是可先行看涨反弹。 美元指数日图走势再度重回看涨趋势上方以及短期均线之上，多头动力增强，周图走势也反弹走强，虽运行在中轨下方，但布林带的缩口，加上附图指标 维持明显 ...

Core Viewpoint - The speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has significantly influenced the gold market, leading to a notable price increase following his remarks on potential interest rate adjustments [1]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Gold experienced a rebound after hitting a low of $3321, surging to $3378 post-Powell's speech, and closing at $3371, forming a strong bullish candlestick [1]. - The market is closely monitoring Powell's comments for further insights, as any new perspectives on the Federal Reserve's policy could impact market sentiment on Monday [1]. Group 2: Future Outlook - If the market interprets Powell's remarks as dovish or if significant risk events occur over the weekend, gold prices could break above $3380, with targets set around $3400 [2]. - Conversely, if Powell's comments are seen as hawkish or geopolitical risks diminish, a drop below $3360 could lead to short positions, targeting $3340-$3330 [2]. - The gold market is currently at a critical technical juncture, and the upcoming week may set the tone for the fourth-quarter trends [2].

黄金股普遍走软，截至发稿，灵宝黄金(03330)跌4%，报11.03港元；赤峰黄金(06693)跌2.82%，报24.1 港元；山东黄金(01787)跌2.79%，报26.46港元；中国黄金国际(02099)跌2.52%，报79.25港元；紫金矿业 (02899)跌2.13%，报22.98港元。 消息面上，市场等待美联储主席鲍威尔本周晚些时候的公开讲话，同时关注东欧地缘冲突缓和的可能， 美元指数小幅上涨令金价承压，国际金价周一小幅下跌。中信期货指出，展望后市，黄金走势将主要取 决于美联储政策路径与地缘政治进展。若美联储释放更强烈的降息信号，或地缘冲突风险升温，金价有 望延续反弹；反之，若经济数据强劲压制降息预期，或地缘局势缓和，黄金可能承压回落。投资者需重 点关注本周FOMC会议纪要与鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔的讲话。 ...

消息面上，市场等待美联储主席鲍威尔本周晚些时候的公开讲话，同时关注东欧地缘冲突缓和的可能， 美元指数小幅上涨令金价承压，国际金价周一小幅下跌。中信期货指出，展望后市，黄金走势将主要取 决于美联储政策路径与地缘政治进展。若美联储释放更强烈的降息信号，或地缘冲突风险升温，金价有 望延续反弹；反之，若经济数据强劲压制降息预期，或地缘局势缓和，黄金可能承压回落。投资者需重 点关注本周FOMC会议纪要与鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔的讲话。 智通财经APP获悉，黄金股普遍走软，截至发稿，灵宝黄金(03330)跌4%，报11.03港元；赤峰黄金 (06693)跌2.82%，报24.1港元；山东黄金(01787)跌2.79%，报26.46港元；中国黄金国际(02099)跌 2.52%，报79.25港元；紫金矿业(02899)跌2.13%，报22.98港元。 ...

相关分析指出，7月CPI数据的温和表现为市场注入了短暂的乐观情绪，但整体通胀同比增速低于预 期，叠加7月非农就业数据的疲软表现，巩固了9月降息预期，但数据质量问题和核心CPI的上行压力提 示投资者需保持谨慎。市场短期波动可能加剧，但长期趋势仍取决于美联储的政策路径和全球宏观环境 的演变。 8月12日，受CPI数据低于预期影响，市场对美联储降息预期升温，数据公布后，金价跌幅收窄，截至 收盘，COMEX黄金期货跌0.15%报3399.60美元/盎司，截至亚市收盘，黄金ETF华夏(518850)跌0.39%， 黄金股ETF(159562)跌0.06%。 消息面上，美国7月CPI同比持平于2.7%，低于预期的2.8%，环比则上涨0.2%符合市场预期。7月核心 CPI同比上涨3.1%，高于预期的3%，创2月份以来新高。数据公布后，交易员上调对美联储9月降息的押 注，市场目前预计美联储在9月会议上降息的概率高达95%。 ...

2025 年 08 月 07 日 铅：LME 库存减少，支撑价格 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 16855 | 0.48% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 1975.5 | 0.61% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 48645 | 8512 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 6919 | -97 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 65019 | -7064 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 150024 | 584 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | -40 | 10 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -41.92 | -3.42 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | PB00-PB01（元/吨） | -60 | 0 | 进口升贴水 ...

Group 1: Employment Data Insights - The U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs in June, with the unemployment rate stable at 4.1% and a moderate wage growth recovery [1] - The education sector contributed 40,000 jobs, while healthcare added 39,000 positions; however, the federal government cut 7,000 jobs, and key sectors like manufacturing and retail showed no significant growth [1] - ADP's small business employment data unexpectedly declined by 33,000 jobs, marking the first negative growth since March 2023, with the service sector experiencing its largest drop since the pandemic [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Investment Challenges - The divergence between official employment data and private sector performance has created uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's policy direction, leading to significant fluctuations in gold futures prices [1] - Historical data indicates that weaker-than-expected employment figures can lead to an average gold price increase of $7.83, while stronger figures typically result in a decrease of $5.07 [2] Group 3: Trading Solutions by Jinseng Precious Metals - Jinseng Precious Metals, a member of the Hong Kong Gold Exchange, offers a three-dimensional system combining regulatory backing, technological innovation, and intelligent risk control to provide a secure trading environment [2][7] - The company boasts millisecond-level trading response times, significantly reducing order execution delays and ensuring quick transactions even during extreme market conditions [2][3] - An intelligent risk control system utilizes AI algorithms to identify key support and resistance levels, providing proactive management of trading positions [3] Group 4: Cost Efficiency and Transparency - Jinseng Precious Metals offers a competitive spread of $0.15 per ounce for London gold, saving over 30% compared to the industry average, which can lead to substantial savings for high-frequency traders [5] - The platform implements a "zero commission" policy and an instant rebate mechanism, allowing traders to quickly adjust positions during volatile market conditions [5] Group 5: Strategic Services and Market Analysis - The company provides scenario-based services, including pre-release reports on non-farm data, combining technical and fundamental analysis to offer trading strategy recommendations [6] - An integrated smart alert system allows investors to set custom price thresholds, automatically triggering profit-taking or stop-loss orders during significant price movements [6]

Group 1 - The international gold price experienced a slight decline due to investors remaining cautious ahead of the U.S. employment data release, with daily fluctuations under $20 [1] - The U.S. dollar regained buying interest, reversing its previous decline caused by concerns over U.S. tariffs and Trump's "big and beautiful plan," which limited the upward potential for gold prices [1] - Market focus is shifting towards the upcoming U.S. ADP private sector employment data and the June non-farm payroll data, which will provide more insights into labor market conditions [3] Group 2 - The current trend for gold remains stable, with limited downside movement, and the market is still leaning towards a bullish outlook despite smaller fluctuations compared to the previous day [5] - A support level is identified around 3325, with a target range set between 3350-3355 for potential upward movement [7]

Geopolitical and Economic Context - The U.S. launched an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, leading to retaliatory actions from Iran, escalating geopolitical tensions. However, market fatigue regarding geopolitical risks has led investors to focus more on Federal Reserve policy and economic data, resulting in gold prices not significantly rising despite the conflict escalation. The uncertainty in geopolitical situations still provides some safe-haven support for gold [2] - Recent U.S. economic data shows signs of weakness, with May retail sales dropping 0.9%, significantly worse than the expected -0.1%, and industrial production unexpectedly declining by 0.2%. This indicates weakening consumer demand and manufacturing momentum, potentially heightening concerns about the difficulty of a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy, indirectly supporting gold's safe-haven attributes [2] - Hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve pushed the U.S. dollar index to a high of 99.03 on June 19, fluctuating around 98.64 on June 23. A stronger dollar directly suppresses gold priced in dollars, with New York gold futures facing pressure around $3,380. Additionally, the two-year Treasury yield dropped 5 basis points to 3.88%, while the ten-year yield remained above 4.2%. Rising real interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, leading to short-term pressure on gold prices [2] Technical Analysis of Gold - The spot gold price opened at $3,389.87 per ounce, experiencing significant fluctuations throughout the day, closing at $3,369.04 with a small bearish candle. The daily closing price is near the moving average, indicating potential oscillation around this level, with a downward bias in price structure [5] - Hourly price movements are entangled with moving averages, showing no clear direction. Currently near the previous day's low, it is advisable to wait for the market to choose a direction before taking action. The 15-minute chart indicates a strong downward movement at the previous day's close, suggesting the likelihood of new lows, with a recommendation to sell on rallies [6] Technical Analysis of Silver - Silver opened at $35.9665, showing intraday fluctuations with a slight upward bias, closing at $36.080 with a small doji candle. The closing price is above the 20-day moving average, with multiple retests indicating stabilization, suggesting a bullish outlook and opportunities for long positions [8] - The hourly chart indicates that the pullback is nearly complete, beginning a bottoming oscillation phase, with a mixed directional outlook. It is recommended to wait for the market to establish a clear direction before taking action. The 15-minute chart shows a significant drop at the previous day's close, finding support at the bottom, and currently showing signs of a rebound, likely within a range-bound movement [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trends of various futures contracts on June 16, 2025, including股指期货,国债 futures, precious metals futures, base metals futures, energy futures, and agricultural product futures. Geopolitical conflicts and economic data are important factors affecting the market, and short - term events may provide investment opportunities [2]. - Financial总量 continues to grow reasonably, and policies are coordinated to promote economic recovery. In the stock market, short - term events may cause declines, but the long - term value of A - shares and Hong Kong stocks is recognized, with a preference for the pan - technology direction [9][26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Forecast 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - On June 13, 2025, major stock index futures contracts such as IF2506, IH2506, IC2506, and IM2506 showed a downward trend, with increased short - term downward pressure. On June 16, they are expected to oscillate and consolidate, with specific resistance and support levels provided. In June 2025, they are expected to be mostly in a strong - oscillation state [22][30]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures - On June 13, 2025, the ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures showed a slight upward trend. On June 16, the ten - year treasury bond futures are expected to oscillate and consolidate, while the thirty - year treasury bond futures are expected to be in a strong - oscillation state [49][54]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals Futures - On June 13, 2025, gold futures showed an upward trend, and silver futures showed a slight downward trend. On June 16, both are expected to be in a strong - oscillation state. In June 2025, gold is expected to have a strong wide - range oscillation, and silver is expected to be in a strong - oscillation state and may set a new high [57][65]. 3.1.4 Base Metals Futures - On June 13, 2025, the trends of base metals futures varied. Copper, zinc, and nickel showed downward trends, while aluminum, lead, and tin showed upward trends. On June 16, most are expected to be in a strong - oscillation state, except for alumina and zinc which are expected to oscillate weakly or consolidate. In June 2025, their trends also vary [68][83][96]. 3.1.5 Energy Futures - On June 13, 2025, crude oil and fuel oil futures showed significant upward trends. On June 16, crude oil is expected to be in a strong - oscillation state, and fuel oil is expected to have a strong wide - range oscillation. The conflict between Iran and Israel has a significant impact on the energy market [116][124]. 3.1.6 Agricultural Product Futures - On June 13, 2025, the trends of agricultural product futures varied. PTA and methanol showed upward trends, while PVC and soybean meal showed slight downward trends. On June 16, their trends are predicted to be different, with some expected to oscillate strongly, some to oscillate widely, and some to oscillate and consolidate [125][131]. 3.2 Macro - economic Information - President Xi Jinping will attend the Second China - Central Asia Summit. The article by General Secretary Xi Jinping will be published in Qiushi. The State Council has carried out relevant work, and the central bank has released financial data, showing that the financial support for the real economy is stable. The central bank will conduct a 400 billion yuan repurchase operation, and the RMB swap agreement with Turkey has been renewed [8][9][11]. - The conflict between Iran and Israel has intensified, affecting global markets. The US stock market, European stock market, and Middle Eastern stock market have all declined, while the prices of crude oil and precious metals have risen. The market is concerned about the impact of this conflict on the global economy and the supply of crude oil [14][29]. - The eurozone's industrial and trade sectors were significantly impacted in April, with a decline in industrial output and a sharp drop in the trade surplus. The global "super central bank week" is approaching, and the market is awaiting the interest rate decisions of central banks such as the Federal Reserve [19]. 3.3 Commodity Futures - related Information - The CSRC has announced the "Regulations on the Administration of Programmed Trading in the Futures Market (Trial)", which will be implemented on October 9, 2025. International precious metals and oil futures showed an upward trend on June 13, 2025, mainly due to geopolitical tensions. The global physical gold ETF had a net outflow in May 2025 [19][20].