美元方面，近期上涨动能同样受到制约。 市场对美联储主席鲍威尔可能出现鸽派继任者的预期，令美元多头不敢激进押注。交易者正密切关注两方面信号：一是联邦公开市场委员会核心成员的讲 话，二是周四将发布的美国消费者通胀数据。 这两类信息将共同塑造市场对美联储未来政策路径的判断，进而决定短期美元需求，为纽元/美元带来新的波动动能。 周三亚洲交易时段，纽元/美元未能延续反弹，出现小幅走低。 现货价格在0.5775至0.5780区间波动，日内跌幅约0.20%。短期走势偏弱，但多重基本面因素交织抑制了看空情绪，市场整体呈现谨慎震荡。 周一公布的中国宏观经济数据压制纽元表现。作为新西兰重要贸易伙伴，中国经济数据引发担忧，直接影响市场对风险货币的偏好。纽元作为典型的风险关 联货币，因此承受上行阻力。全球股市整体疲软，进一步强化避险情绪，推动资金从风险资产转向避险资产，这一趋势也对纽元/美元形成压制。 新西兰央行的政策立场为纽元提供关键支撑。行长安•布雷曼本周明确表示，若经济形势符合预期，官方现金利率将在较长时期内维持于当前2.25%的水平。 这一鹰派信号与市场对美联储的政策预期形成对比——目前市场普遍预测美联储在2026年可能实施 ...

周二(12月16日)亚洲交易时段尾盘，现货黄金突然遭遇抛售，目前金价跌至4274美元/盎司附近，日内重挫逾30美元。FXStreet分析师Haresh Menghani撰文，对金价技术走势进行分析。 美国零售销售数据素有"恐怖数据"之称，因其通常对金融市场有较大的影响，因此很可能对美元、黄金等资产走势产生影响。 黄金技术分析 Menghani指出，隔夜金价在4350美元/盎司附近受阻，在小时图上形成看跌双顶形态。此外，若维持在4300美元/盎司下方，则预示着金价可能进一 步下跌。然而，4小时图上震荡指标的混合走势提醒激进的空头交易者需谨慎。这反过来表明，金价更有可能在4260-4255美元/盎司的水平附近找 到较强支撑。 Menghani写道，周二亚洲交易时段，黄金吸引一些卖家，金价延续隔夜自4350美元/盎司区域(上周触及的10月21日以来最高水平附近)以来的回落 势头。日内下跌的原因是市场对俄乌和平协议的乐观情绪，这被认为会削弱对这种传统避险商品的需求。美国总统特朗普周一表示，结束这场持续 四年战争的协议比以往任何时候都更接近达成。 Menghani补充道，此外，部分投资者在周二晚些时候公布的美国10月份 ...

日图来看，纸白银昨日收回上周五部分跌幅，目前价格小幅下跌，表明近期价格处于高位盘整阶段，或 有回调压力，DMI显示目前走势有下行趋势，等待多头动能复苏，纸白银走势下方关注13.50-14.20支 撑；上方关注14.50-15.00阻力。 他强调，从政策制定者的角度来看，无论这些数据结果如何，他们都会采取比平时更为审慎的态度进行 评估。市场的关键任务是通过这些数据厘清美国劳动力市场的真实趋势，避免被短期波动误导。 由于本次数据发布的复杂性，这份报告有潜力引发过度市场波动。强劲的经济很可能孕育强劲的劳动力 市场，因此，如果经济正在重新加速，11月就业数据将强于预期，12月预计进一步增长。 今日周二(12月16日)亚盘时段，纸白银目前交投于14.500一线下方，今日开盘于14.446元/克，截至发 稿，纸白银暂报14.439元/克，下跌0.09%，最高触及14.527元/克，最低下探14.242元/克，目前来看，纸 白银盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 【最新纸白银行情解析】 【要闻速递】 交易员们目前正密切等待定于周二公布的美国非农就业报告和零售数据，这些数据将为美联储的政策路 径提供更多线索。 根据CME FedWatc ...

随着一系列关键经济数据即将发布，美国国债市场围绕美联储未来降息幅度的激烈争论正趋于白热化。 本周，美国政府停摆期间延误发布的月度非农就业及通胀数据将集中出炉，明年 1 月初还会公布更多核 心就业数据。这将极大填补此前的数据空白，并助力市场解答 2026 年的核心问题：在连续三次降息 后，美联储的宽松周期是否已接近尾声，还是需要采取更激进的降息举措。 债券交易员正押注美联储明年将降息两次，以支撑就业市场与经济增长前景，尽管当前通胀仍居高不 下。这一预期降息次数较美联储的暗示多出一次。若市场预期成真，美国国债有望迎来又一轮强劲上涨 行情，而当前美债正朝着 2020 年以来的最佳年度表现迈进。 "明年最为关键的一项经济数据，或许就是周二公布的非农就业报告。" 德盛安联资产管理美洲区固定 收益主管乔治・卡特兰博内表示，"这是我当前唯一关注的指标，利率走势完全取决于劳动力市场的表 现。" 即将发布的经济数据涵盖 11 月完整数据及 10 月部分数据，这进一步加剧了市场对数据的关注。彭博社 调查的经济学家预期中值显示，美国 11 月非农就业人数或新增 5 万人。上月延迟发布的数据显示，9 月非农就业人数新增 11.9 万 ...

北京时间周五(12月5日)亚盘时段，白银期货继续走低，截至发稿，沪银主力合约暂报13475.00元/千 克，下跌1.11%，获利了结与利率敏感型情绪将继续压制白银走势，短期展望偏空，目前来看，白银期 货盘内短线偏空。 【最新白银期货情解析】 本周白银抛售潮源于价格抛物线式上涨至纪录高位后，交易员纷纷锁定收益。当杠杆头寸平仓时，此类 行为通常会加速——算法交易与止损订单进一步放大卖盘，加剧价格压力。回调速度表明投机性持仓可 能正在减少，这往往是市场进入盘整阶段的前兆。 日图来看，白银期货目前处于趋势线阻力下方震荡调整，多头动力减弱，但仍处于众多均线支撑上方， 看涨前景良好，虽有继续调整和回落风险，但也可视为再度的入场看涨机会，因而，下方关注各均线支 撑，进行低多看涨，白银走势下方关注13000-13200支撑；上方关注14000-14500阻力。 周四晚间，美元指数小幅回升。消息面上，市场关注焦点仍集中于美联储政策路径。美联储官员哈塞特 表示"下次会议可能降息25BP"，与近期疲软的就业数据形成呼应：美国11月挑战者企业裁员人数大幅 下降，但初请失业金人数仍低于预期，同时Revelio Labs预计11月非农就 ...

格隆汇12月4日｜在伦敦和约翰内斯堡上市的金矿股在前市交易中下跌，因金价下滑。投资者正在展望 美联储的政策路径。他们将从本周晚些时候公布的美国周度失业数据和个人消费支出价格指数(PCE)中 寻找线索。纽约黄金期货下跌0.3%，报每盎司4,218.30美元。在伦敦，Endeavour Mining和Fresnillo均下 跌约2.6%，Hochschild Mining下跌1.2%。在约翰内斯堡，Sibanye-Stillwater下跌4%，Harmony Gold下跌 近3%。 ...

值得注意的是，ADP与斯坦福数字经济实验室合作发布的薪资数据基于覆盖逾2600万美国私营部门雇员 的工资单信息，具有较强代表性。 数据背离凸显经济复杂性 与此同时，美国供应管理协会（ISM）公布的11月服务业PMI升至52.6，创九个月新高，显示服务业活 动继续扩张。ADP就业数据与ISM服务业PMI之间的背离，反映出当前美国经济的多维复杂性：一方 面，大型企业与核心服务业维持扩张；另一方面，中小企业、制造业及信息产业持续承压。 小企业裁员潮与大企业扩张形成鲜明对比 数据显示，11月就业下滑主要由小型企业驱动。员工人数少于50人的小企业合计裁员12万个，其中规模 在20至49人之间的企业减少7.4万个岗位，创2020年5月以来最大单月降幅。相比之下，拥有50名及以上 员工的大型企业净增9万个岗位，反映出不同规模企业在当前经济环境下的抗压能力存在明显差异。 从行业维度看，就业市场呈现高度分化。教育和医疗服务业新增3.3万个岗位，休闲和酒店业增加1.3万 个，成为少数亮点。但专业和商业服务业裁员2.6万人，信息服务业减少2万人，制造业减少1.8万人，金 融活动与建筑业各减少9000人，广泛领域的岗位流失拖累整体表 ...

Core Viewpoint - A significant sell-off has swept through the U.S. financial markets, affecting nearly all asset classes, driven by concerns over the sustainability of the AI boom and economic outlook [1][2]. Market Performance - Major stock indices, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, closed below their 50-day moving averages for the first time in 138 trading days, breaking the longest consecutive rise since May [2][3]. - The Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced its worst three-day performance since April, closing down 1.2% or 557 points [3]. - The S&P 500 index fell below the critical level of 6725 points, raising concerns of a potential 10% market correction [13][16]. Sector Analysis - Technology stocks were heavily impacted, with most of the "Big Tech" companies, including Nvidia and Meta, seeing declines. Despite Berkshire Hathaway increasing its stake in Alphabet, it did not uplift the overall sector sentiment [12]. - The "most shorted stocks" index has dropped to a two-month low, indicating waning confidence in previously popular stocks [15]. Credit Market Concerns - The widening credit spreads for investment-grade and high-yield corporate bonds reflect increasing investor concerns over default risks [19]. - Amazon's $15 billion bond issuance faced higher risk premiums despite strong demand, signaling caution in the credit market [21]. - Credit default swap spreads for AI-related companies, including Oracle and CoreWeave, have widened, indicating rising credit concerns [22][24]. Cryptocurrency and Gold Market - Bitcoin's price fell below $92,000, erasing its gains for the year and forming a "death cross" technical pattern [8][26]. - Gold prices dropped to around $4,000 per ounce, losing its status as a safe-haven asset, with silver also declining below $50 [6][27]. Macroeconomic Environment - The current market pessimism is rooted in high uncertainty regarding macroeconomic conditions and monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve's path remaining unclear [31][32]. - Concerns over the private credit market have emerged, with warnings about potential "junk loans" reminiscent of the pre-2008 financial crisis [35].

Core Insights - The recent inflation data has been described as a "timely rain" that alleviates market anxiety and supports the prevailing expectation of moderate inflation [1][2] - The current issues in the job market explain the Federal Reserve's commitment to its existing policy path [1][2] - Market expectations for two additional interest rate cuts this year have risen to 88%, which has led to a nearly 0.7% increase in S&P 500 futures [1][2] - Overall, this data has injected new momentum into the market's upward trend, although a significant deviation from expectations could trigger sell-offs [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The sudden 5% drop in gold prices, marking the largest single-day decline of the year, reflects a collision between market expectations and reality, ending a three-month bullish trend [1] Group 1: Market Expectations - The dovish signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in August ignited expectations for a rate cut in September, leading to a surge in gold prices from $3,200 to $4,400, a rise of over 37% [2] - The realization of the rate cut led the market to reassess gold's valuation, as the fulfillment of rate cut expectations limited further stimulus potential, causing a shift from expectation-driven to reality-validated momentum [2] Group 2: Data Vacuum - The U.S. government shutdown in November resulted in a "data vacuum," delaying the release of key economic indicators such as non-farm payrolls and CPI, which are crucial for assessing economic fundamentals [3] - The absence of data hindered investors' ability to evaluate inflation pressures or employment market changes, leading to a lack of sustained risk aversion [4] Group 3: Technical Factors - Technically, gold entered an overbought territory around $4,400, with the RSI indicator showing extreme optimism, making it susceptible to negative signals that could trigger technical sell-offs [5] - On November 20, profit-taking by institutional investors initiated a rapid decline in gold prices, resulting in a domino effect of stop-loss triggers and automated sell-offs, shifting the market from buying to panic selling [5] Group 4: Policy Divergence - Despite the rate cut in September, divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding future policy became apparent, with some officials suggesting a pause in rate cuts, indicating a potential shift towards a neutral monetary policy [6] - This divergence contrasted with previous expectations of continued easing, diminishing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [7] - The uncertainty surrounding fiscal policy during the government shutdown heightened concerns about "stagflation" risks, challenging gold's value preservation attributes [7] Group 5: Future Outlook - The recent decline in gold prices is viewed as a necessary correction, reflecting a transition from market exuberance to a more sober assessment of reality, as previous gains had already priced in the benefits of rate cuts [7] - Future gold price movements will depend on the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory, the timing of economic data releases, and changes in geopolitical risks, while its safe-haven properties remain intact despite complex price fluctuations [7]