Group 1 - Recent reduction in large long positions on U.S. Treasuries by futures traders following unexpectedly strong non-farm payroll data, leading to upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.410%, marking five consecutive days of increases [1] - Significant liquidation of long positions in futures contracts linked to 5-year and 10-year Treasuries, with approximately $70 billion worth of 10-year Treasuries effectively sold [1] Group 2 - Asset management firms have significantly increased their long positions in 5-year and 10-year Treasury futures, reaching record highs [2] - Upcoming auctions of $39 billion in 10-year Treasuries and $22 billion in 30-year Treasuries may exacerbate passive deleveraging pressure if demand is weak [2] - The current interest rate market is characterized by uncertainty and diverging views, with institutions engaging in long-short hedging strategies [2] Group 3 - Increased focus on put options for September and December reflects growing concerns about maintaining high interest rates [3] - The skew in Treasury options has shifted towards bearish, with traders paying premiums to hedge against rising interest rate risks [3] - Asset management firms significantly increased long positions in 10-year Treasury futures before the non-farm data release, indicating a rush to position ahead of a potential shift in market sentiment [3]

Group 1: Employment Data Insights - The U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs in June, with the unemployment rate stable at 4.1% and a moderate wage growth recovery [1] - The education sector contributed 40,000 jobs, while healthcare added 39,000 positions; however, the federal government cut 7,000 jobs, and key sectors like manufacturing and retail showed no significant growth [1] - ADP's small business employment data unexpectedly declined by 33,000 jobs, marking the first negative growth since March 2023, with the service sector experiencing its largest drop since the pandemic [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Investment Challenges - The divergence between official employment data and private sector performance has created uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's policy direction, leading to significant fluctuations in gold futures prices [1] - Historical data indicates that weaker-than-expected employment figures can lead to an average gold price increase of $7.83, while stronger figures typically result in a decrease of $5.07 [2] Group 3: Trading Solutions by Jinseng Precious Metals - Jinseng Precious Metals, a member of the Hong Kong Gold Exchange, offers a three-dimensional system combining regulatory backing, technological innovation, and intelligent risk control to provide a secure trading environment [2][7] - The company boasts millisecond-level trading response times, significantly reducing order execution delays and ensuring quick transactions even during extreme market conditions [2][3] - An intelligent risk control system utilizes AI algorithms to identify key support and resistance levels, providing proactive management of trading positions [3] Group 4: Cost Efficiency and Transparency - Jinseng Precious Metals offers a competitive spread of $0.15 per ounce for London gold, saving over 30% compared to the industry average, which can lead to substantial savings for high-frequency traders [5] - The platform implements a "zero commission" policy and an instant rebate mechanism, allowing traders to quickly adjust positions during volatile market conditions [5] Group 5: Strategic Services and Market Analysis - The company provides scenario-based services, including pre-release reports on non-farm data, combining technical and fundamental analysis to offer trading strategy recommendations [6] - An integrated smart alert system allows investors to set custom price thresholds, automatically triggering profit-taking or stop-loss orders during significant price movements [6]

由于投资者在美国就业数据公布前保持观望，未敢大举押注，周三国际黄金价格小幅下跌，日内波动幅度 不到20美元，该就业数据预计将进一步揭示美联储未来的政策路径。美元重新获得买盘，扭转隔夜因对美 国关税和特朗普"大而美法案"引发的担忧而导致的跌势，从而限制金价的上行空间。 晚间风险数据预警！ 20.15分：市场目前的关注焦点转向今天稍晚将发布的美国ADP私营部门就业数据，以及周四公布的6月非 农就业数据，这些数据将为劳动力市场状况提供更多线索。鉴于贸易不确定性、地缘政治紧张局势加剧、 美元走软以及央行购买量不断增加，黄金仍处于高位。 对于晚间黄金走势的看法！ 黄金今天回撤的空间并不大，也并没有给到我们今天白盘想进场多单的机会，而目前来说，晚间还有ADP 的数据影响，但当前趋势来看的话黄金涨势还是依旧保持稳定，波动虽说对比昨天较小，但触及上方之前 的压力位也并没有大幅度的下跌，那么今天晚间的思路还是看涨！ 而对于今晚的趋势上来说，兴言还是保持低多看涨的趋势不变，而下方的支撑可先关注3325附近的支撑即 可，回撤到位继续跟进多单，上方目标看向3350-55一线！同时若趋势有新的变动兴言也会在实盘中实时给 出！ 所谓一个 ...

Geopolitical and Economic Context - The U.S. launched an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, leading to retaliatory actions from Iran, escalating geopolitical tensions. However, market fatigue regarding geopolitical risks has led investors to focus more on Federal Reserve policy and economic data, resulting in gold prices not significantly rising despite the conflict escalation. The uncertainty in geopolitical situations still provides some safe-haven support for gold [2] - Recent U.S. economic data shows signs of weakness, with May retail sales dropping 0.9%, significantly worse than the expected -0.1%, and industrial production unexpectedly declining by 0.2%. This indicates weakening consumer demand and manufacturing momentum, potentially heightening concerns about the difficulty of a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy, indirectly supporting gold's safe-haven attributes [2] - Hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve pushed the U.S. dollar index to a high of 99.03 on June 19, fluctuating around 98.64 on June 23. A stronger dollar directly suppresses gold priced in dollars, with New York gold futures facing pressure around $3,380. Additionally, the two-year Treasury yield dropped 5 basis points to 3.88%, while the ten-year yield remained above 4.2%. Rising real interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, leading to short-term pressure on gold prices [2] Technical Analysis of Gold - The spot gold price opened at $3,389.87 per ounce, experiencing significant fluctuations throughout the day, closing at $3,369.04 with a small bearish candle. The daily closing price is near the moving average, indicating potential oscillation around this level, with a downward bias in price structure [5] - Hourly price movements are entangled with moving averages, showing no clear direction. Currently near the previous day's low, it is advisable to wait for the market to choose a direction before taking action. The 15-minute chart indicates a strong downward movement at the previous day's close, suggesting the likelihood of new lows, with a recommendation to sell on rallies [6] Technical Analysis of Silver - Silver opened at $35.9665, showing intraday fluctuations with a slight upward bias, closing at $36.080 with a small doji candle. The closing price is above the 20-day moving average, with multiple retests indicating stabilization, suggesting a bullish outlook and opportunities for long positions [8] - The hourly chart indicates that the pullback is nearly complete, beginning a bottoming oscillation phase, with a mixed directional outlook. It is recommended to wait for the market to establish a clear direction before taking action. The 15-minute chart shows a significant drop at the previous day's close, finding support at the bottom, and currently showing signs of a rebound, likely within a range-bound movement [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasizes the importance of focusing on short-term predictions regarding the Fed's policy path, while acknowledging the challenges associated with long-term forecasts [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Federal Reserve Policy** - Powell suggests that short-term predictions are more reliable and should be prioritized when assessing the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory [1] - **Long-term Forecasting Challenges** - The Chairman notes that making accurate long-term predictions is considerably more difficult, indicating uncertainty in future economic conditions and policy responses [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trends of various futures contracts on June 16, 2025, including股指期货,国债 futures, precious metals futures, base metals futures, energy futures, and agricultural product futures. Geopolitical conflicts and economic data are important factors affecting the market, and short - term events may provide investment opportunities [2]. - Financial总量 continues to grow reasonably, and policies are coordinated to promote economic recovery. In the stock market, short - term events may cause declines, but the long - term value of A - shares and Hong Kong stocks is recognized, with a preference for the pan - technology direction [9][26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Forecast 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - On June 13, 2025, major stock index futures contracts such as IF2506, IH2506, IC2506, and IM2506 showed a downward trend, with increased short - term downward pressure. On June 16, they are expected to oscillate and consolidate, with specific resistance and support levels provided. In June 2025, they are expected to be mostly in a strong - oscillation state [22][30]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures - On June 13, 2025, the ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures showed a slight upward trend. On June 16, the ten - year treasury bond futures are expected to oscillate and consolidate, while the thirty - year treasury bond futures are expected to be in a strong - oscillation state [49][54]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals Futures - On June 13, 2025, gold futures showed an upward trend, and silver futures showed a slight downward trend. On June 16, both are expected to be in a strong - oscillation state. In June 2025, gold is expected to have a strong wide - range oscillation, and silver is expected to be in a strong - oscillation state and may set a new high [57][65]. 3.1.4 Base Metals Futures - On June 13, 2025, the trends of base metals futures varied. Copper, zinc, and nickel showed downward trends, while aluminum, lead, and tin showed upward trends. On June 16, most are expected to be in a strong - oscillation state, except for alumina and zinc which are expected to oscillate weakly or consolidate. In June 2025, their trends also vary [68][83][96]. 3.1.5 Energy Futures - On June 13, 2025, crude oil and fuel oil futures showed significant upward trends. On June 16, crude oil is expected to be in a strong - oscillation state, and fuel oil is expected to have a strong wide - range oscillation. The conflict between Iran and Israel has a significant impact on the energy market [116][124]. 3.1.6 Agricultural Product Futures - On June 13, 2025, the trends of agricultural product futures varied. PTA and methanol showed upward trends, while PVC and soybean meal showed slight downward trends. On June 16, their trends are predicted to be different, with some expected to oscillate strongly, some to oscillate widely, and some to oscillate and consolidate [125][131]. 3.2 Macro - economic Information - President Xi Jinping will attend the Second China - Central Asia Summit. The article by General Secretary Xi Jinping will be published in Qiushi. The State Council has carried out relevant work, and the central bank has released financial data, showing that the financial support for the real economy is stable. The central bank will conduct a 400 billion yuan repurchase operation, and the RMB swap agreement with Turkey has been renewed [8][9][11]. - The conflict between Iran and Israel has intensified, affecting global markets. The US stock market, European stock market, and Middle Eastern stock market have all declined, while the prices of crude oil and precious metals have risen. The market is concerned about the impact of this conflict on the global economy and the supply of crude oil [14][29]. - The eurozone's industrial and trade sectors were significantly impacted in April, with a decline in industrial output and a sharp drop in the trade surplus. The global "super central bank week" is approaching, and the market is awaiting the interest rate decisions of central banks such as the Federal Reserve [19]. 3.3 Commodity Futures - related Information - The CSRC has announced the "Regulations on the Administration of Programmed Trading in the Futures Market (Trial)", which will be implemented on October 9, 2025. International precious metals and oil futures showed an upward trend on June 13, 2025, mainly due to geopolitical tensions. The global physical gold ETF had a net outflow in May 2025 [19][20].

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Group 1 - US stock market experienced a third consecutive day of gains, with the S&P 500 index reaching a new high not seen in at least three months, driven by optimism surrounding international trade negotiations [1] - Tesla led the technology sector's rise, with its stock increasing by over 5%, while Intel saw its largest single-day gain since April 9, rising nearly 8% [1] - The World Bank downgraded its global economic growth forecast for 2025 by 0.4 percentage points to 2.3%, citing higher tariffs and policy uncertainties as significant obstacles to the global economy [5] Group 2 - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index saw mixed performance, with NIO rising over 5% and iQIYI and New Oriental both increasing by more than 2%, while Tencent Music fell by nearly 1% [2] - Circle, a stablecoin company, experienced a drop of over 8%, reversing some of its recent gains after a cumulative increase of over 270% in the previous three trading days [3] - McDonald's faced its seventh consecutive day of decline, marking the longest losing streak since 2013, while 10 out of 11 sectors in the S&P 500 index saw gains, with the energy sector performing the best [4]

Core Insights - The May non-farm payroll report from the U.S. Department of Labor indicates a resilient labor market, with 139,000 new jobs added, surpassing the market expectation of 126,000 [2] - However, significant downward revisions to previous months' data, with a total adjustment of 95,000 jobs, suggest that the actual momentum in the labor market may not be as strong as it appears [2] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, reflecting labor market stability [2] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-over-month and 3.9% year-over-year, indicating an improvement in consumers' purchasing power [2] Industry Performance - The healthcare, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance sectors were the main contributors to job growth, adding 126,000 new positions [2] - Conversely, manufacturing, retail, and federal government employment experienced declines, with federal government jobs decreasing by 22,000 [2] - The downturn in manufacturing and retail may be linked to uncertainties surrounding trade policies [2] Market Reaction - Following the non-farm data release, U.S. stock markets reacted positively, with the S&P 500 rising by 1.5% and the Nasdaq increasing by 2.2%, reaching a new high for the year [3] - The dollar index initially rose but recorded a decline over the week due to previous weak ADP data [3] - Interest rate expectations shifted, with the market now anticipating a 25 basis point cut in both November and December, rather than a larger cut [3] Economic Outlook - The non-farm data presents mixed signals, with strong job additions and wage growth supporting consumer spending, while the downward revisions and manufacturing decline raise concerns about investment and expansion [4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious stance, likely holding rates steady in September while awaiting further data [4] - Future focus will be on inflation data and the Federal Reserve's policy direction, particularly the upcoming CPI report on June 11 and the interest rate decision on June 19 [5][6]

美国劳动力市场正显现降温迹象。5月非农就业预计新增13万人，虽高于象征健康劳动力市场的10万人门槛，但较4月17.7万人的增速显著放缓。周四公布的 初请失业金人数连续第二周上升，印证堪萨斯城联储主席施密德对关税政策可能推升通胀的担忧。这种矛盾的数据组合令市场对美联储政策路径产生分歧： 一方面，特朗普持续施压要求降息以应对经济放缓；另一方面，鲍威尔领衔的FOMC委员选择按兵不动，坚持"数据依赖"策略。 技术面暗藏方向选择信号。周四金价冲高后回落，以阴线收盘并跌破5日均线，显示多头动能有所衰竭。当前需密切关注10日均线3333美元/盎司支撑位—— 该位置既是周二盘中低点，也是多空重要心理关口。若有效跌破该支撑，可能引发技术性卖盘，目标直指3300美元整数关口；反之，若非农数据不及预期推 动金价重返5日均线，则有望挑战3400美元前期高点。 周五（6月6日）亚市盘中，现货黄金延续反弹态势，截至发稿报3370.50美元/盎司，涨幅0.53%。市场正屏息以待今晚20:30公布的美国5月非农就业报告，这 份数据可能成为打破黄金近期震荡格局的关键变量。当前交易逻辑呈现多重博弈特征：经济数据走弱与美联储政策预期交织，技术面破 ...