Group 1: US-China Relations - The recent US-China meeting is considered a success, with both sides achieving their objectives and reducing risks, leading to a consensus of "fighting without breaking" [2] - Market behavior showed a "buy the expectation" before the meeting and a "sell the fact" afterward, indicating that risk premiums have decreased but the trading direction was already established [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Stance - The FOMC meeting revealed a rare hawkish shift from Powell, indicating that the Fed is more concerned about the labor market than inflation, which is no longer the primary focus [3][8] - Internal disagreements within the Fed regarding interest rate cuts were highlighted, with some members advocating for a 50 basis point cut while others opposed it [8][10] - The short-term interest rates are rebounding, contributing to a rise in the dollar index from around 95 to nearly 100, confirming previous expectations [5][8] Group 3: Market Reactions and Earnings Season - The current earnings season for US stocks is characterized as "not bad, but not impressive," with EPS exceeding expectations by only 2%, down from the historical average of 4% [13] - Investor reactions to positive news have become muted, as seen in Meta's earnings report, where increased capital expenditures did not excite the market due to concerns over demand uncertainty [18] Group 4: UK Economic Outlook - The UK is facing a potential early interest rate cut due to inflation rates falling below expectations, with the market currently pricing in a 25% probability of a cut, which is considered low [20][22] - The UK budget deficit is approximately £30 billion, and if the government opts for tax increases to cover this gap, it could suppress growth in the short term [22] Group 5: Commodity Markets - Gold prices are currently stabilizing around the $4000 mark, driven primarily by retail investor sentiment rather than institutional funds [23][24] - Oil prices are showing signs of recovery after a previous decline, with attention on the upcoming OPEC+ meeting and potential actions regarding Venezuela that could impact supply [26][27]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve faces unprecedented challenges in formulating monetary policy due to a "data vacuum" caused by the U.S. government shutdown, which has halted the release of critical economic data [1][3][11]. Economic Data Impact - The government shutdown has led to a complete halt in data collection and publication by key departments, including the Labor Statistics Bureau and the Commerce Department, affecting important metrics like non-farm employment and retail sales [1][3]. - Goldman Sachs highlights that prolonged shutdowns can damage data quality, as seen in the 2013 shutdown when only 75% of regular price samples for CPI were collected [3]. Inflation and Employment Signals - Recent economic indicators show a consistent signal of policy direction, with the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 3% year-on-year, below the expected 3.1%, and core CPI also underperforming expectations [4][5]. - The ADP employment report indicates a surprising decrease of 32,000 jobs in September, significantly below the expected increase of 51,000, marking the largest decline since March 2023 [5]. Federal Reserve's Policy Balancing - Fed Chair Powell emphasizes the difficulty of balancing the need to combat inflation while addressing employment market risks, especially in the context of missing key economic data [7][9]. - Powell signals a potential end to the balance sheet reduction policy, which has seen the Fed's assets decrease from approximately $9 trillion to $6.6 trillion since mid-2022 [7]. Divergence in Policy Perspectives - There is a growing divide within the Federal Reserve regarding the pace and extent of potential rate cuts, with some officials advocating for aggressive cuts due to employment market concerns, while others caution against inflation risks [9][10]. - The internal disagreement is exacerbated by the lack of recent official economic data, leading officials to rely on their interpretations of limited information [10]. Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The market has priced in strong expectations for rate cuts, with a 99.9% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October, reflecting concerns over economic growth and inflation dynamics [11][12]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has dropped below 4% for the first time since last September, indicating market apprehension about economic slowdown and the anticipated rate cuts [12][14]. - The dollar index remains under pressure due to rate cut expectations, while geopolitical risks and global economic uncertainties provide some support, leading to a mixed outlook for the dollar [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - In October 2025, the global financial market is facing a monetary policy decision in a data "vacuum." The market has priced in a 97.3% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed at the upcoming meeting. Amid government shutdown, inflation stickiness, weak employment signals, and political pressure, the meeting is a complex game. Fed's rate - cut expectations will support precious metals through interest rates and the dollar, but actual price performance depends on the strength of policy path signals after the rate cut [2][5]. - After the end of the data "vacuum period," potential expectation revisions may occur. Once the government shutdown ends, significant deviations between delayed economic data and market expectations may force investors to re - evaluate the rate - cut prospects, potentially causing sharp cross - asset class fluctuations. Investors should focus on the Fed's internal policy consensus, the actual performance of the first batch of economic data after the shutdown ends, and the persistence and consistency of policy signals [3][24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data "Vacuum" under Policy Dilemma: Shutdown Impact and Decision - Making Challenges - The Fed's October 2025 meeting faces a "data blind - spot" dilemma due to a 28 - day government shutdown starting from October 1st, the second - longest in US history. Key economic data collection and release by government departments have stalled, challenging the Fed's policy - making [6]. - Data quality is severely affected. Long - term shutdown may directly disrupt data collection and introduce structural biases. Although private - sector alternative data fills some gaps, its information is limited [7]. 3.2 Economic Signal Analysis: Double Confirmation of Stable Inflation and Weak Employment - The September CPI data shows that US consumer price inflation was lower than expected, with core CPI growth at a three - month low, indicating a structural slowdown in inflation [8]. - The employment market shows obvious weakness. The ADP employment report for September shows a decrease of 32,000 private - sector jobs, far below expectations. Previous employment data also shows poor performance, and there are signs of structural deterioration in the job market [9]. - These economic signals provide a basis for the Fed's rate - cut decision, with the Fed leaning towards focusing on employment risks [11]. 3.3 Powell's Balancing Act: Policy Shift and Risk Management - Fed Chair Powell faces a dilemma in policy - making. He also signals that the three - year - long quantitative tightening may end soon, and emphasizes a cautious approach to maintain financial market stability [15][17]. - Powell defends the Fed's policy independence and warns against the potential risks of Congress canceling the Fed's ability to pay interest on bank reserves [17]. 3.4 Internal Disagreements and Policy Games: Path Disputes under Rate - Cut Consensus - There is a basic consensus within the Fed on a rate cut in October, but deep differences exist in the future policy path, mainly in the rhythm, amplitude, and subsequent path of rate cuts [19]. - The dovish camp, represented by Stephen Milan and William Williams, advocates more aggressive rate cuts due to employment concerns. The cautious camp, represented by Barr and Jeffrey Schmid, warns about inflation risks [19]. 3.5 Market Outlook and Asset Impact: Confrontation between Expectations and Reality - As the Fed meeting approaches, the market is at a critical juncture from expectation trading to reality verification. The strong rate - cut expectations have been fully priced in, affecting major asset performances [23]. - The 10 - year US Treasury yield has fallen below 4% in October 2025, but its further decline depends on the consistency between actual rate - cut paths and market expectations [23]. - The US dollar index is in a multi - empty tug - of - war, with rate - cut expectations pressuring it while geopolitical risks providing support [23]. - The precious metals market is relatively strong under rate - cut expectations but is affected by multiple factors and is expected to enter a high - level oscillation phase in the short term [24].

Group 1 - The US dollar has shown a strong start in the foreign exchange market, supported by risk aversion due to the government shutdown and heightened attention on the upcoming September CPI data [1][2] - The government shutdown has led to a "data vacuum," increasing the appeal of the US dollar as a traditional global safe-haven asset, resulting in sustained buying support [2][6] - The September CPI data, set to be released soon, is crucial as it is one of the first significant data points post-shutdown and provides insight into the true inflation situation [4] Group 2 - Economists predict a year-on-year increase of 3.1% in the September CPI, which would be the highest level since May 2024, potentially impacting the Federal Reserve's policy path in 2026 [4][6] - There is an asymmetry in the market's response to the CPI data; if the data meets or falls below expectations, the dollar may only see minor fluctuations, but a higher-than-expected figure could drive the dollar significantly higher [6][8] - Recent Canadian inflation data exceeding expectations has raised caution among traders, suggesting that US inflation may also remain resilient [6] Group 3 - Despite a cumulative decline of about 7% in the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index for 2025, most of the losses occurred in the first half of the year, with the dollar showing resilience in the latter half [7] - The options market indicates optimism, with traders favoring the purchase of bullish dollar options, reflecting a belief that the dollar will continue to strengthen in the next three months [7] - There is a growing perspective that the market may be underestimating the dollar's rebound potential, as the relative strength of the US economy could limit the Fed's rate-cutting capacity [8]

Core Viewpoint - The sudden 5% drop in gold prices, marking the largest single-day decline of the year, reflects a collision between market expectations and reality, ending a three-month bullish trend [1] Group 1: Market Expectations - The dovish signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in August ignited expectations for a rate cut in September, leading to a surge in gold prices from $3,200 to $4,400, a rise of over 37% [2] - The realization of the rate cut led the market to reassess gold's valuation, as the fulfillment of rate cut expectations limited further stimulus potential, causing a shift from expectation-driven to reality-validated momentum [2] Group 2: Data Vacuum - The U.S. government shutdown in November resulted in a "data vacuum," delaying the release of key economic indicators such as non-farm payrolls and CPI, which are crucial for assessing economic fundamentals [3] - The absence of data hindered investors' ability to evaluate inflation pressures or employment market changes, leading to a lack of sustained risk aversion [4] Group 3: Technical Factors - Technically, gold entered an overbought territory around $4,400, with the RSI indicator showing extreme optimism, making it susceptible to negative signals that could trigger technical sell-offs [5] - On November 20, profit-taking by institutional investors initiated a rapid decline in gold prices, resulting in a domino effect of stop-loss triggers and automated sell-offs, shifting the market from buying to panic selling [5] Group 4: Policy Divergence - Despite the rate cut in September, divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding future policy became apparent, with some officials suggesting a pause in rate cuts, indicating a potential shift towards a neutral monetary policy [6] - This divergence contrasted with previous expectations of continued easing, diminishing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [7] - The uncertainty surrounding fiscal policy during the government shutdown heightened concerns about "stagflation" risks, challenging gold's value preservation attributes [7] Group 5: Future Outlook - The recent decline in gold prices is viewed as a necessary correction, reflecting a transition from market exuberance to a more sober assessment of reality, as previous gains had already priced in the benefits of rate cuts [7] - Future gold price movements will depend on the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory, the timing of economic data releases, and changes in geopolitical risks, while its safe-haven properties remain intact despite complex price fluctuations [7]

Group 1 - The international commodity market showed strong performance during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, with precious metals being the most notable, as COMEX gold prices reached $4000 per ounce and COMEX silver approached $49 per ounce, while spot gold hit a historical high [1] - Analysts predict a structural differentiation in the domestic commodity market post-holiday due to multiple variables, including political turmoil in some foreign economies and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which has created a "data vacuum" affecting market sentiment [2][3] - The strong performance of precious metals is driven by heightened expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and increased safe-haven demand due to concerns over U.S. fiscal policy sustainability amid the government shutdown [3] Group 2 - The copper market also showed strength, with LME copper prices surpassing $10,000 per ton, driven by expectations of looser macro liquidity, ongoing supply disruptions, and structural demand from the renewable energy sector [3] - In contrast, the energy and chemical sectors experienced weakness due to significant declines in international oil prices, which reduced cost support for domestic energy and chemical markets [3] - Analysts suggest that the strong performance of certain commodities (like precious and non-ferrous metals) may positively influence related domestic products, while those with weaker fundamentals may continue to adjust, leading to a "stronger strong, weaker weak" market characteristic [4]

Core Points - The U.S. federal government has entered a shutdown for the first time in nearly seven years, affecting hundreds of thousands of federal employees and public services [1] - The shutdown was triggered by a voting deadlock in the Senate, where a Republican proposal to extend government funding was not passed [3][4] - The core issue lies in the fundamental disagreements between the two parties regarding the content of the temporary funding bill [6][7] Group 1: Government Shutdown Details - The White House has initiated the shutdown process, leading to a "furlough" for hundreds of thousands of federal employees, with some essential workers continuing without pay [9] - The last significant shutdown occurred from late 2018 to early 2019, lasting 35 days due to disputes over funding for a border wall [1][3] - The current deadlock is characterized by a lack of agreement on budget priorities, with Democrats opposing the Republican plan that seeks to extend funding without additional provisions [6][7] Group 2: Economic Impact - The shutdown is expected to have immediate economic repercussions, including potential layoffs and disruptions in public services [9][10] - Historical data suggests that each week of government shutdown could reduce GDP growth by 15 basis points, with a three-week shutdown potentially cutting growth by 45 basis points [13] - The absence of key economic data releases, such as employment and inflation reports, due to the shutdown may complicate Federal Reserve decision-making [11][12] Group 3: Political Dynamics - The Senate's failure to pass the funding extension was marked by a unified Democratic opposition, despite some bipartisan support [4][5] - The political standoff reflects deeper ideological divides, particularly regarding healthcare and public funding priorities [6][7] - The current situation is distinct from past crises, as it does not involve a debt ceiling debate, reducing the risk of a systemic financial crisis [15]