文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人陈瀚学 今年以来，人民币兑美元汇率走势在一波三折中前进：年初在弱美元环境下小幅升值（1-3月），再在 对等关税担忧下呈现"急转直下"的贬值风波（4月初），不确定性逐步缓解后人民币重拾升值动能 （4-5月），6-7月人民币在区间内窄幅波动，8月下旬再次掀起一轮升值行情。 从特征看，此轮行情人民币中间价、在岸价、离岸价"三价合一"，共同呈现向7.0水平靠拢的态势，行 情的背后既有基本面基础，也有事件催化。 人民币汇率的三大支柱——中美利差、政策风险溢价、购买力平价均在朝着有利于升值的 方向变化，央行中间价指引和外资FOMO情绪是额外的催化剂。 近三个月，中美国债利率整体上相向而动。 特别是7月以来，A股走牛引发股债跷跷板效应，10年中债 到期收益率站上1.8%，较6月底已上升逾20bp，中国的无风险回报率正在温和上升。与此同时10年美 债收益率呈波动下行态势，从一个月前4.5%的高点回落至4.2%一线。一升一降，直接导致两国名义 利差在短期内显著收窄了近50个基点。 考虑通胀因素后，中美实际利差进一步收窄。 中国在7月和8月继续保持极低的通胀水平，7月份CPI同 比走平，PPI同比低至- ...

Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB/USD exchange rate has shown a fluctuating upward trend since the beginning of the year, with a slight appreciation in early 2023 due to a weaker dollar, followed by a rapid depreciation in April due to tariff concerns, and a return to appreciation from May onwards[2] - As of late August, the RMB has entered a strong appreciation phase, with the onshore and offshore rates converging towards the 7.0 level, indicating support from both fundamental and policy factors[2][5] Key Drivers of RMB Appreciation - The narrowing of the China-US 10-year Treasury yield spread by nearly 50 basis points over the past three months has provided a basis for recent RMB appreciation, driven by a mild increase in China's risk-free interest rates and a decline in US Treasury yields[7] - Changes in policy risk premiums have favored the RMB, as rising uncertainty in US fiscal and monetary policies contrasts with China's efforts to reduce sovereign risk premiums through reforms[6][14] - The long-standing undervaluation of the RMB is changing, with IMF data indicating that 1 USD has a purchasing power equivalent to 3.4 RMB, suggesting the current exchange rate is undervalued by over 50%[17][20] Catalysts for Recent Appreciation - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has released strong appreciation expectations through its midpoint rate, influenced by geopolitical negotiations and domestic stability considerations[3][31] - The bullish trend in the A-share market, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 8% and the ChiNext Index over 20% in August, has led to increased foreign investment and demand for RMB[40] Future Outlook - The weak dollar environment is expected to continue supporting RMB appreciation, but factors such as weak export expectations and the need for domestic demand recovery suggest a stable appreciation pace is more beneficial for fundamental recovery[47] - The importance of the RMB against a basket of currencies is anticipated to rise, reflecting the need for a more balanced exchange rate strategy[49]