2026，我们在挑战中寻找一些确定性。全球经济增长前景如何？中国经济有哪些新动向？美联储是否会激进降息？中国货币政策如何继续适度宽松？财政 政策怎样促进居民增收？黄金是否会续创新高？人民币会继续升值吗？房地产市场风险能否出清？美股AI泡沫会被戳破吗？A股能否站稳4000点？科技股 能否持续带动市场？ 第一财经：2026年全球经济增长前景如何，中国经济有哪些新动向？ 导语 带着这些问题，第一财经携手十位"年度机构首席经济学家"，为你预测2026。 第一财经携手十位"年度机构首席经济学家"，为你预测2026。 2025，全球经济在波动中寻求新的平衡。 全球 彭文生：地缘竞争日益成为影响全球经济和市场的关注点，这既涉及传统的经贸，更包括人工智能等创新领域的博弈。资源禀赋、规模经济、交易成本是 国际贸易与全球产业链的三个决定因素。其中，资源禀赋和传统理解的比较优势有关（劳动密集、资本密集、自然资源）；交易成本包括运输成本、关税 和非关税保护主义措施等；对于美国关税的影响，中国的规模经济优势是一个重要因素。 在新的地缘形势下，以内部循环为主体、内外部循环相互促进的双循环呈现一些新的动向。内循环方面，实体经济供给改善、需 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Industrial Securities highlights the potential for significant appreciation of the Renminbi against the US dollar in the next 6 to 12 months, driven by contrasting monetary policies between the US and China [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Monetary Policy Impact** - The US is expected to continue a passive easing monetary policy, while China is actively stabilizing its monetary policy, which supports the trend of Renminbi appreciation [1] - **Valuation Assessment** - Since the beginning of 2023, the Renminbi has been approximately 6% systematically undervalued, indicating a gradual correction in the medium to long term [1]

Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB/USD exchange rate has shown a fluctuating upward trend since the beginning of the year, with a slight appreciation in early 2023 due to a weaker dollar, followed by a rapid depreciation in April due to tariff concerns, and a return to appreciation from May onwards[2] - As of late August, the RMB has entered a strong appreciation phase, with the onshore and offshore rates converging towards the 7.0 level, indicating support from both fundamental and policy factors[2][5] Key Drivers of RMB Appreciation - The narrowing of the China-US 10-year Treasury yield spread by nearly 50 basis points over the past three months has provided a basis for recent RMB appreciation, driven by a mild increase in China's risk-free interest rates and a decline in US Treasury yields[7] - Changes in policy risk premiums have favored the RMB, as rising uncertainty in US fiscal and monetary policies contrasts with China's efforts to reduce sovereign risk premiums through reforms[6][14] - The long-standing undervaluation of the RMB is changing, with IMF data indicating that 1 USD has a purchasing power equivalent to 3.4 RMB, suggesting the current exchange rate is undervalued by over 50%[17][20] Catalysts for Recent Appreciation - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has released strong appreciation expectations through its midpoint rate, influenced by geopolitical negotiations and domestic stability considerations[3][31] - The bullish trend in the A-share market, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 8% and the ChiNext Index over 20% in August, has led to increased foreign investment and demand for RMB[40] Future Outlook - The weak dollar environment is expected to continue supporting RMB appreciation, but factors such as weak export expectations and the need for domestic demand recovery suggest a stable appreciation pace is more beneficial for fundamental recovery[47] - The importance of the RMB against a basket of currencies is anticipated to rise, reflecting the need for a more balanced exchange rate strategy[49]