Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing significant price declines, with some properties seeing drops of over 40% in value, indicating a rapid downturn in the housing sector [1][3][5]. Price Trends - Many neighborhoods are witnessing drastic price fluctuations, with some properties selling at prices that are significantly lower than previous years. For instance, a 87㎡ unit in Rongze Jiayuan sold for 3.15 million in August 2025, down 48% from 6 million in September 2021 [1][3]. - The 62㎡ unit in Wanquanzhuang sold for 4.3 million in August 2025, reflecting a 45% decrease from its price of 7.8 million in March 2021 [5]. - A 49㎡ unit in Kangqiao Shuijun sold for 5.86 million in August 2025, down 40% from 9.75 million in July 2021 [7]. Market Activity - The number of transactions in the market remains relatively stable, with 1,609 transactions recorded in the week of August 11-17, showing a slight increase from the previous week [12]. - The average daily transaction volume for second-hand residential properties is around 379 units, with an estimated total of 12,000 to 13,000 transactions expected for August [12]. Broader Economic Indicators - Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a decline in housing prices across major cities, with Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experiencing month-on-month decreases of 1.1%, 0.9%, 1.0%, and 0.9% respectively [14]. - Financial data reveals a significant drop in loans, with a negative growth of 500 billion in RMB loans in July, indicating a lack of borrowing from both residents and businesses [14]. Government Response - There is increasing pressure on local governments to stabilize the housing market, as recent commentary emphasizes the need for effective measures to support the real estate sector [16]. - The upcoming months, particularly September, are anticipated to be critical for potential market recovery, with expectations of interest rate cuts that could stimulate housing demand [17].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market has entered an unprecedented adjustment period since the end of 2021, with significant price declines and increasing inventory levels, prompting various government policies aimed at stabilizing the market and ensuring economic stability [1][3][10]. Market Conditions - By March 2023, average housing prices had dropped by 30% from historical highs, with some areas experiencing declines of up to 60% [1]. - The total unsold residential property area reached 6.7 trillion square meters by the end of 2023, projected to rise to 7.5 trillion by the end of 2024 and 7.8 trillion by March 2025, indicating severe inventory pressure [3]. Government Policies - Various measures have been implemented to stimulate the market, including lifting purchase restrictions in most cities, increasing public housing loan limits, and reducing mortgage interest rates from over 5% to around 3% [3]. - Tax reductions on deed tax and value-added tax were also introduced to alleviate the burden on homebuyers [3]. Economic Implications - The real estate sector is a pillar of the economy, influencing over 50 related industries, including construction materials and furniture, and its stagnation could severely impact local GDP growth [7]. - The real estate industry employs over 13 million people directly, with millions more in related sectors, highlighting the potential employment crisis if the market does not recover [7][8]. Fiscal Dependency - Land transfer fees have become a crucial part of local government finances, accounting for 50% of local fiscal revenue in 2024, with real estate-related taxes making up 35% [10]. - A significant portion of public service funding relies on these revenues, and a continued downturn in the real estate market could lead to reduced public services and increased financial strain on local governments [10]. Long-term Goals - The overarching aim of the government’s intervention in the real estate market is not just to influence short-term price fluctuations but to ensure social stability and facilitate a transition towards a more sustainable economic model focused on high-end manufacturing and technology [10][11].

Group 1 - The domestic housing market has entered a long-term adjustment trend since 2022, with average housing prices expected to drop by 30% by March 2025, affecting both second and first-tier cities [1] - The real estate market is experiencing sluggish sales, with a total unsold residential area reaching 7.5 trillion square meters, indicating significant inventory pressure across various regions [1] Group 2 - Since 2024, the government has implemented several policies to stimulate the housing market, including lifting purchase restrictions in most cities, increasing public housing loan limits, and reducing mortgage rates from over 4% to below 3% [3] - Tax incentives have also been introduced, such as reductions in deed tax and value-added tax, to encourage home purchases [3] Group 3 - The necessity to rescue the housing market stems from its impact on 56 related industries, including construction and furniture, which are crucial for local GDP growth [5] - The real estate sector provides significant employment, with over 13 million employees in real estate companies and millions more in related industries, highlighting the potential job market pressures if the sector fails [5] Group 4 - The real estate market is vital for local government finances, with land transfer fees accounting for 50% of local fiscal revenue and real estate-related taxes making up 35% [7] - A prolonged downturn in the housing market could severely reduce these revenues, affecting government operations, including civil servant salaries and infrastructure projects [7] Group 5 - The fiscal burden on the government includes approximately 80 million people reliant on public funds, with a projected annual salary expenditure of 8 trillion yuan, of which 5 trillion yuan is linked to the real estate sector [9] - Failure to stabilize the housing market could lead to significant salary payment gaps for these public sector employees, emphasizing the urgency of market intervention [9] Group 6 - The ultimate goal of the housing market rescue is not merely to influence price fluctuations but to stabilize prices in the short term, allowing for a transition towards a more diversified economy focused on high-end manufacturing and technology [12] - As part of the recovery efforts, local governments are expected to gradually introduce property taxes to create new revenue streams amid declining land transfer fees [12]