公司发布25Q 2业绩： 25Q2：营收71.02 亿（-7.97%），归母净利润30.70 亿（-11.10%），扣非归母净利润30.55 亿 （-11.24%）。 25H1：营收164.54 亿（-2.67%），归母净利润76.63 亿（-4.54%），扣非归母净利润76.50 亿 （-4.30%）。 25Q2 公司毛利率同比-0.95pct 至87.9%，预计主因产品结构拖累，其中25H1 中高档酒毛利率-1.2pct。 25Q2 公司税金及附加/销售/管理费率各同比+3.7/-1.2/-0.3pct，税金及附加率上升预计主因生产销售节奏 错位，公司费率管控得当主因数字化营销改革持续深化。综上，公司25Q2 净利率同比-1.5pct 至 43.2%。 报表质量：渠道合作意愿较强 25Q2 公司销售收现同比-15.1%，公司"营收+Δ合同负债"同比+0.6%，国窖1573 价盘稳健下，渠道合作 意愿较强。销售收现较弱，但应收款项融资25Q2 环比增加2.1 亿元，预计25Q2 经销商更多使用票据打 款。 投资建议：维持"买入" 我们的观点： 25Q2 符合市场预期。 收入：理性增长，报表出清 分品类：25 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company reported its Q2 2025 performance, with a gross margin decrease of 0.95 percentage points year-on-year to 87.9%, primarily due to product mix issues. The net profit margin also declined by 1.5 percentage points to 43.2% [9][12] - Despite a 15.1% year-on-year decrease in cash sales, the company showed strong channel cooperation willingness, with a slight increase in "revenue + Δ contract liabilities" by 0.6% year-on-year [10] - Looking ahead to the second half of 2025, the company is expected to enhance channel penetration and adapt to younger and lower-alcohol consumption trends, with new products likely to drive growth [11] Financial Performance Summary - For Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 7.102 billion (down 7.97%) and a net profit of 3.070 billion (down 11.10%) [12] - For the first half of 2025, revenue was 16.454 billion (down 2.67%) and net profit was 7.663 billion (down 4.54%) [12] - The company anticipates achieving total revenues of 29.474 billion, 30.203 billion, and 33.375 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 12.472 billion, 12.947 billion, and 14.457 billion [13][15] Financial Metrics - The company’s projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 16, 15.44, and 13.83 respectively [13][15] - The gross margin is expected to be 85.2% in 2025, improving to 86.3% by 2027 [15] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to decline from 28.4% in 2024 to 20.8% in 2025, stabilizing at 19.3% from 2026 onwards [15]