泸州老窖 20250710 摘要 泸州老窖正经历数字化改革，从生产到销售端提升运营效率，旨在适应 未来市场发展，并发布报告以供市场参考，尤其是在禁酒令影响下。 当前泸州老窖市盈率接近历史低位，与 2013 年初白酒行业深度调整期 相似，但预测 2025 年股息率约为 5.4%，对估值形成支撑，下跌空间 有限。 三季度白酒量价指标预计平稳，二季度受扰动因素影响较大，但最差阶 段已过，环比改善迹象明显，各场景修复带来增量，年底或有积极政策 导向。 泸州老窖组织和渠道力突出，具有强市场化管理能力及战略前瞻性，同 时加大供应链数字化投入，布局低度和多规格产品，注重年轻化营销。 高度国窖提前调整，数字化渠道管理后库存合理、价格稳定，在川渝等 优势市场与竞品价格差收缩，厂商关系修复，经销商回款信心足。 短期内，泸州老窖估值有望从当前 13 倍修复至 15 倍，对标山西汾酒有 更高空间，报告详细探讨了公司折价原因、组织渠道优势及数字化增长 潜力。 公司通过导入五码合一的渠道价值链管控和实施挖井计划等改革举措， 旨在应对市场变化，实现更长远的发展和布局，符合白酒行业未来的调 整方向。 Q&A 为什么选择在当前时间点发布泸州老 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the deep analysis of Luzhou Laojiao (000568.SZ), emphasizing a consumer-centric approach and digital empowerment of the supply chain to enhance competitive barriers [9][10] - The company is expected to face a 21% underperformance compared to the liquor sector from H2 2023 to H1 2025, with a projected PE decline of 45% due to internal and external cyclical pressures [9][11] - Luzhou Laojiao is actively reducing channel burdens and advancing digital transformation, which is seen as a strategic advantage in a weak industry environment [9][10] Group 2 - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a significant demand increase driven by AI applications, with TI expanding production to meet future needs and storage prices continuing to rise [19][21] - The global semiconductor sales in May 2025 reached $58.98 billion, marking a 19.8% year-on-year growth, with China's semiconductor sales at $17.08 billion, up 13% [21][22] - The report recommends focusing on semiconductor manufacturing companies and AI-related enterprises, highlighting the importance of domestic AI development in the semiconductor supply chain [21][27] Group 3 - The medical and biological sector is witnessing a strong performance, with a focus on innovative drug development, particularly in radioactive ligand therapy, which is expected to grow rapidly [29][30] - The report identifies XTR005 and XTR008 as key products in the pipeline, with XTR005 being the first PET diagnostic radioactive ligand approved in China [30][31] - The overall medical sector is projected to continue its upward trend, with a notable increase in clinical data competitiveness for domestic innovative drugs [31]

投资建议：短期压力不改长期增长动能，维持"优于大市"评级。考虑到短期行业需求压力，公司仍以去 库存、促动销为主，下修此前盈利预测，预计2025-2027 年公司营业总收入305.9/308.4/333.3 亿元， 同 比-2.0%/+0.8%/+8.1% （ 前值+1.7%/+5.2%/+6.4% ） ； 预计归母净利润130.3/132.0/145.4 亿元， 同 比-3.3%/+1.2%/+10.1% （ 前值+0.5%/+4.5%/+7.1%），对应2025/2026 年12.9/12.7 倍P/E。考虑到公司早 于行业主动调整，多价位产品布局，以数字化工具培育消费者，看好经营久期；同时分红指引积极，预 测2025 年股息率5.4%，支撑估值；给予合理估值152.4-166.4 元，中值对应现价40%上行空间，维持"优 于大市"评级。 风险提示：经济及需求复苏不及预期；产业政策调整影响消费场景及需求；全国化推进较慢；食品安全 问题等。 数字化思辩：科技增密供应链，以消费者为中心提升竞争壁垒。近两年白酒行业渠道加速转型，C 端话 语权提升，从线上渠道GMV 高速增长到即时零售高势能切入，倒逼酒企多元化、扁 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月09日 泸州老窖（000568.SZ） 优于大市 以消费者为中心，数字化赋能供应链，提升竞争壁垒 市场表现：增速预期下修，估值出现折价。2023H2-2025H1 公司股价跑输白 酒板块 21%，预测 PE 下跌 45%，主因内外部周期叠加，公司收入及业绩增速 边际放缓：行业需求承压影响大单品国窖的量价表现，同时公司自身发展进 入阶段性调整。我们认为市场基于短期增速的定价有失偏颇，当前行业弱景 气度背景下公司积极去化渠道包袱，以消费者为中心推进数字化转型，进行 前瞻性产品布局，管理层面的相对优势仍是共识；当前 PE 接近 2013 年初水 平，于经营、于投资层面均有布局机会。 竞争壁垒：管理禀赋为核，全价位产品布局。公司在行业中为管理驱动类， 组织、渠道为核心优势，历史两轮调整通过深度改革实现破局。公司组织机 制市场化、激励充足，庞大且专业化的销售队伍开拓市场；组织力支撑精细 化的渠道管理模式得以落地跑通，因地制宜、强化管控。产品层面"浓香鼻 祖"名酒基因根植，双品牌多品系布局，全价位带均有可贡献增长的大单品。 数字化思辩：科技增密供应链，以消费者为中心提升竞争壁垒。近两年白 ...

上 市 公 司 食品饮料 2025 年 06 月 25 日 泸州老窖 (000568) ——目标稳健，经营务实 报告原因：有信息公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 06 月 25 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 113.70 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 164.67/98.92 | | 市净率 | 3.3 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 5.94 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 167,065 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,455.97/10,393.72 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 03 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 34.08 | | 资产负债率% | 24.67 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 1,472/1,469 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 06-25 07-25 08-25 09-25 10-25 11-25 12-25 01-25 02-25 03-25 ...

Core Viewpoint - The articles emphasize the importance of protecting and revitalizing minority cultures in China, highlighting the need for creative transformation and innovative development to ensure these cultures thrive in modern society [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Cultural Protection - Minority cultural heritage is a testament to ethnic history and a carrier of national spirit, necessitating systematic protection and research to preserve diversity and uniqueness [2]. - Modern technology, such as virtual reality and artificial intelligence, can enhance the experience and transmission of minority cultures, making them more accessible and engaging [2]. Group 2: Creative Transformation - The transmission of minority cultures should not be limited to preservation; it must find a balance between tradition and modernity, transforming cultural elements into contemporary products [3]. - Digital technologies allow traditional forms, like the Dong people's choral music, to be integrated into modern music, broadening their reach and appeal [3]. Group 3: Innovative Development - Innovation is essential for cultural vitality, requiring technological empowerment, industry support, and an open perspective to connect traditional cultures with modern markets [4]. - The integration of minority cultures with tourism and commercial sectors can create competitive cultural products, enriching consumer experiences and fostering a complete industrial chain [4].

Company Overview - The company operates in internet marketing based on data research, focusing on e-commerce sales services, product development, and digital marketing services, with a deep layout in industries such as liquor, beverages, daily chemicals, and maternal and infant products [1] - The company has established a significant presence in live e-commerce and short video e-commerce, with nearly 4,000 square meters of live broadcast bases and 45 live broadcast rooms in key e-commerce cities like Hangzhou and Beijing [1] Partnerships - The company collaborates with major liquor brands including Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Wuliangye, and Qingdao Beer, among others, and has established deep strategic partnerships with major domestic e-commerce platforms such as JD.com, Tmall, Douyin, Kuaishou, and Pinduoduo [2] Business Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a GMV of 8.2 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 7% - The operating revenue reached 3.676 billion CNY, reflecting a growth of 30.18% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 260 million CNY, up by 29.61% [3] Product Strategy - The company has launched strategic flagship products, including "Six-Year-Old Rare Product" and various gift boxes, achieving nearly 100 million CNY in GMV since their launch [4] - The company is expanding its product matrix and enhancing online penetration through strategic cooperation with core partners [4] Financial Management - The company has not distributed dividends for 12 years due to negative retained earnings, with a surplus reserve of 132.82 million CNY and a capital reserve of 1.298 billion CNY as of December 31, 2024 [5] - The company emphasizes investor returns through improved information disclosure, share buybacks, and employee stock ownership plans, having repurchased 22.34 million shares for a total of 101 million CNY [5] Market Expansion - The company is actively exploring overseas markets and emerging platforms, leveraging platforms like TikTok, Lazada, Tokopedia, and Shopee to provide comprehensive e-commerce services [6] - The company aims to develop new product lines and enhance its market presence in various sectors, including liquor and daily chemicals [6]

Group 1: Company Overview and Financial Performance - Xinhua Du completed the restructuring of its wholly-owned subsidiary Jiuai Zhihe in 2016, and by 2022, the strategic flagship product "Six-Year Cellar Treasure Head Qu" achieved a GMV of nearly 100 million yuan since its launch until the end of Q1 2024 [1] - In 2024, the company reached a record GMV of 8.2 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 7%; revenue was 3.676 billion yuan, up 30.18% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 260 million yuan [1] - The company completed the divestiture of its retail business, shifting its main operations to internet marketing [1] Group 2: Market Expansion and E-commerce Strategy - In 2024, the company officially entered the Indonesian market, leveraging its mature domestic e-commerce operations to establish a solid foundation [2] - Collaborated with leading brands like Kimberly-Clark and L'Oréal to provide comprehensive e-commerce services on platforms such as Tiktok, Lazada, Tokopedia, and Shopee [2] Group 3: AI Marketing Initiatives - The company is actively developing AI marketing solutions, integrating systems like "Zhi Zhu Xia," "Jiuai Zhi Xing," and "Jiuai Zhi Ku" for commercial applications in the fast-moving consumer goods sector [2][3] - Most business processes, including sales management, have implemented RPA to reduce costs and enhance profitability [3] - The company has localized the DeepSeekR1 model for applications in marketing, advertising, supply chain, and customer service [4] Group 4: Risk and Disclosure - The activity does not involve any undisclosed significant information and future plans or development goals do not constitute profit forecasts or substantial commitments to investors [4] - Investors are advised to be aware of investment risks due to the complex and variable macroeconomic environment and market conditions [4]

2025 年 05 月 07 日 Q1 略超预期，期待渠道改革成效 买入(维持) 事件 | 分析师：孙山山 | S1050521110005 | | --- | --- | | sunss@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：肖燕南 | S1050123060024 | | xiaoyn@cfsc.com.cn | | | 基本数据 | 2025-05-06 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 129.49 | | 总市值（亿元） | 5026 | | 总股本（百万股） | 3882 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 3881 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 107.69-164.05 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 2933.66 | 市场表现 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 (%) 五粮液 沪深300 相关研究 1、《五粮液（000858）：营销执行 提升年，稳定压倒一切》2024-12- 19 2、《五粮液（000858）：浓香龙头 迎复兴，酒业大王向前看》2024- 12-06 3、《五粮液（000858）：发布中期 利 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1][8] Core Views - The company's Q1 performance slightly exceeded expectations, with strong sales collection [5] - The company is focusing on channel reform to enhance its market position [1][5] - The main brand is developing multiple product lines while creating flagship products in other liquor categories [6] - The company is expected to maintain its pricing strategy and restore channel confidence, leading to a recovery in brand value [8] Financial Performance - In 2024, total revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders were 891.75 billion and 318.53 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 7% and 5% [5] - Q1 2025 revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders were 369.40 billion and 148.60 billion yuan, both showing a year-on-year increase of 6% [5] - The gross margin for 2024 was 77%, with a slight year-on-year increase, while the net margin was 37%, showing a slight decline [5] - The company reported a significant increase in operating cash flow in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 2970% [5] Product Development - In 2024, liquor revenue reached 831.27 billion yuan, with the main product line contributing 678.75 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.07% increase [6] - The company launched new products in the 45-degree and 68-degree categories, expanding its product matrix [6] - The average price of the main products increased slightly, contributing to overall revenue growth [6] Regional Performance - Revenue from the Eastern, Southern, and Northern regions in 2024 was 312.90 billion, 393.36 billion, and 125.01 billion yuan, respectively, with the Eastern and Southern regions showing stable growth [7] - The number of distributors for the main brand and its sub-brands increased significantly, indicating a successful expansion strategy [7] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to have EPS of 8.67, 9.26, and 10.00 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 15, 14, and 13 times [8][10]