证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 17 日 星期三 【A 股市场大势研判】 三大指数跌超 1% 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3824.81 | -1.11% | -43.11 | | | 深证成指 | 12914.67 | -1.51% | -197.42 | | | 沪深 300 | 4497.55 | -1.20% | -54.51 | | | 创业板 | 3071.76 | -2.10% | -66.04 | | | 科创 50 | 1293.38 | -1.94% | -25.52 | | | 北证 50 | 1439.65 | 0.54% | 7.70 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万行业表现前五 | | | 申万行业表现后五 | 概念板块表现前五 ◼ | | 概念板块表现后五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 商贸零售 | 1.32% | ...

Group 1 - The market experienced a broad increase, with the ChiNext Index and micro-cap stocks performing the best, while the STAR 50, dividend, and CSI 300 indices lagged behind [3][12] - The steel, real estate, and non-bank financial sectors saw the highest gains, while banks, automobiles, and coal performed the weakest [15][36] - The relative PE of the ChiNext Index to the CSI 300 increased, indicating a rising valuation premium for growth stocks [19][36] Group 2 - The overall valuation of broad market indices increased, with the ChiNext Index showing a PE of 33.1, which is above the 50% historical percentile [27][36] - The financial and real estate sectors are valued above the 50% historical percentile, while materials, equipment manufacturing, industrial services, transportation, consumption, and technology are at or below the 50% level [28][36] - The valuation of industries such as food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and public utilities is currently considered relatively cheap [40][44] Group 3 - The overall profit expectations across industries showed slight changes, with the agriculture, forestry, and animal husbandry sector seeing the largest upward adjustment, while the computer sector experienced the largest downward adjustment [51]