[Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 12 月 29 日 星期一 市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】 上周五 A 股三大指数集体收涨，截止收盘，沪指收涨 0.1%，深成指 收涨 0.54%，创业板指收涨 0.14%。沪深两市成交额 21600.31 亿元。 申万行业方面，有色金属、电力设备、钢铁领涨，电子、轻工制造、 通信领跌；概念板块方面，海南自贸区、金属锌、金属铅领涨，科创 次新股、光刻胶、同花顺果指数领跌。港股因圣诞假期休市；海外方 面，美国三大指数集体收跌，道指收跌 0.04%，标普 500 收跌 0.03%， 纳指收跌 0.09%。 【重要新闻】 【全国财政工作会议在北京召开】12 月 27 日至 28 日，全国财政工 作会议在北京召开。会议指出，2026 年继续实施更加积极的财政政 策。扩大财政支出盘子，确保必要支出力度。优化政府债券工具组合， 更好发挥债券效益。提高转移支付资金效能，增强地方自主可用财力。 持续优化支出结构，强化重点领域保障。加强财政金融协同，放大政 策效能。会议要求，2026 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 29 日 星期一 【A 股市场大势研判】 沪指八连阳 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3963.68 | 0.10% | 4.06 | | | 深证成指 | 13603.89 | 0.54% | 72.48 | | | 沪深 300 | 4657.24 | 0.32% | 14.70 | | | 创业板 | 3243.88 | 0.14% | 4.53 | | | 科创 50 | 1345.83 | -0.24% | -3.23 | | | 北证 50 | 1463.04 | 0.35% | 5.07 | | 周五三大指数继续震荡上行，沪指收获八连阳。A 股三大指数早盘冲高回落，不过午 后三大指数再度重拾升势，震荡拉升翻红，最终三大指数集体收涨，沪指收获八连阳。盘 面上，市场热点快速轮动，全市场超 3400 只个股下跌。有色金属、电力设备、钢铁、国 防军工和商贸零售等板块涨幅靠前；电子、轻工制造、通信、综合和食品饮料等板块跌幅 靠前。概念 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 17 日 星期三 【A 股市场大势研判】 三大指数跌超 1% 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3824.81 | -1.11% | -43.11 | | | 深证成指 | 12914.67 | -1.51% | -197.42 | | | 沪深 300 | 4497.55 | -1.20% | -54.51 | | | 创业板 | 3071.76 | -2.10% | -66.04 | | | 科创 50 | 1293.38 | -1.94% | -25.52 | | | 北证 50 | 1439.65 | 0.54% | 7.70 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万行业表现前五 | | | 申万行业表现后五 | 概念板块表现前五 ◼ | | 概念板块表现后五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 商贸零售 | 1.32% | ...

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market saw collective gains last Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.41%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.84%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.97%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 20,920.64 billion yuan [1][7] - In terms of industry performance, non-ferrous metals, electronics, and power equipment led the gains, while retail, comprehensive, and building materials sectors lagged behind. Concept sectors such as smart grids, the Internet of Things, and mobile payments showed significant increases, whereas horse racing, newly listed tech stocks, and duty-free shop concepts experienced declines [1][7] Important News - The Ministry of Commerce, the People's Bank of China, and the Financial Regulatory Bureau issued a notice to strengthen the collaboration between commerce and finance to boost consumption. The notice includes 11 specific measures aimed at enhancing financial support in key consumption areas, promoting personal consumption loans, and encouraging the issuance of consumption vouchers by merchants and platforms [2][8] Research Highlights - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 11, 2025, analyzed the current economic situation and systematically deployed economic work for 2026. The policy focuses on both demand and supply, acknowledging the coexistence of favorable and unfavorable external factors. The emphasis is on continuously expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply, with expectations for a gradual adjustment in key industry capacities [9][10] - Fiscal policy is expected to remain proactive, with a fiscal deficit rate likely to stay around 4%. The focus will be on optimizing the structure of fiscal expenditures and addressing local government financial difficulties [10][11] - Monetary policy will be adjusted flexibly in response to economic changes, aiming to support stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery. Structural tools are expected to be enhanced, with a focus on supporting small and medium-sized financial institutions [11][12] - The role of domestic demand is set to strengthen, with more policies anticipated to promote the construction of a large domestic market. This includes plans to increase urban and rural residents' income, which will help boost consumer confidence and sustainable consumption growth [11][12]

证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 12 日 星期五 【A 股市场大势研判】 大盘震荡调整，三大指数集体收跌 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3873.32 | -0.70% | -27.18 | | | 深证成指 | 13147.39 | -1.27% | -169.04 | | | 沪深 300 | 4552.18 | -0.86% | -39.64 | | | 创业板 | 3163.67 | -1.41% | -45.33 | | | 科创 50 | 1325.83 | -1.55% | -20.87 | | | 北证 50 | 1443.17 | 3.84% | 53.37 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万行业表现前五 | | | 申万行业表现后五 | 概 | 念板块表现前五 | 概念板块表现后五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 银行 | 0.1 ...

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market saw all three major indices rise on Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.7%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 1.08%, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.36%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1,725.659 billion yuan [1][6] - In terms of industry performance, non-bank financials, metals, and machinery equipment led the gains, while banking, public utilities, and transportation sectors lagged behind [1][6] - The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong rose by 0.58%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 0.84%. In overseas markets, the three major US indices also saw collective gains, with the Dow Jones up by 0.22%, the S&P 500 up by 0.19%, and the Nasdaq up by 0.31% [1][6] Important News - As of the end of November, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at 33,464 billion USD, an increase of 30 billion USD from the end of October, marking a rise of 0.09%. This figure has remained above 3.3 trillion USD for four consecutive months and is the highest since December 2015. Additionally, the central bank's gold reserves reported at 7,412 million ounces, with an increase of 30,000 ounces month-on-month, marking the 13th consecutive month of gold accumulation since last November [2][7] - A draft of the "Guidelines for Performance Evaluation Management of Fund Management Companies" has been issued, which strengthens performance assessments and links various indicators to profitability. The regulations require that the proportion of investments by executives and fund managers be increased, with at least 30% of their annual performance compensation tied to purchasing their own company's funds. Fund managers' performance compensation will be closely linked to fund performance, with significant reductions in compensation for those whose products underperform benchmarks by over ten percentage points in the past three years [2][7] Industry Insights - In December, TV panel prices are expected to stabilize, with a warming demand anticipated next year. According to data from Lottu Technology, the prices of LCD TV panels from major manufacturers saw an increase in November, with small sizes rising by 0.5-1 USD and medium to large sizes by 2-3 USD. Although the settlement price is expected to decline, the rate of decline is anticipated to narrow [8][9] - The upcoming sports events in 2026, such as the Winter Olympics and the World Cup, are expected to boost demand for panels, leading downstream manufacturers to stock up in advance, which will provide support for LCD TV panel prices. The demand for large-sized displays continues to grow, with a projected 6% year-on-year increase in global display panel area demand in 2026 [9][10] - The operating rates of LCD panel manufacturers remain high, and the depreciation pressure on production lines is expected to ease, improving operational pressures. In October 2025, the global shipment of large-sized LCD TV panels reached 20.6 million units, an 8% year-on-year increase, despite a 4.8% month-on-month decline [10][11]

Strong Individual Stocks - As of November 27, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.29% to 3875.26 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.25% to 12875.19 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.44% to 3031.3 points [1] - A total of 63 stocks in the A-share market hit the daily limit up, with the top three strong stocks being Guosheng Technology (603778), Maoye Commercial (600828), and Yue Wanniang (301111) [1] - The top 10 strong stocks with specific data include: - Guosheng Technology: 14 days with 9 limit ups, turnover rate of 9.46%, and a closing price of 6.34 [1] - Maoye Commercial: 3 consecutive limit ups, turnover rate of 0.42%, and a closing price of 4086 [1] - Yue Wanniang: 2 consecutive limit ups, turnover rate of 23.97%, and a closing price of 8.92 [1] Strong Concept Sectors - The top three concept sectors based on A-share performance are Organic Silicon Concept, Sci-Tech Innovation Newly Listed Stocks, and Silicon Energy [2] - The top 10 concept sectors with their respective performance data include: - Organic Silicon Concept: increased by 3.29% [3] - Sci-Tech Innovation Newly Listed Stocks: increased by 2.12% [3] - Silicon Energy: increased by 1.99% [3]

- The report introduces a "Total Heat Index" as a quantitative factor, which aggregates the browsing, watchlist, and click counts of individual stocks, normalized as a percentage of the total market on the same day, and then multiplied by 10,000. The value range of this index is [0, 10,000][7] - The "Total Heat Index" is used as a proxy variable for "sentiment heat" at the broader levels of broad-based indices, industries, and concepts. It is calculated by summing up the total heat indices of constituent stocks within each group[7] - A "Broad-Based Index Rotation Strategy" is constructed based on the weekly heat change rate (MA2) of broad-based indices. The strategy involves buying the broad-based index with the highest heat change rate at the end of each week. If the "Other" group has the highest change rate, the strategy remains in cash. The annualized return of this strategy since 2017 is 8.74%, with a maximum drawdown of 23.5%, and a return of 38.52% in 2025[13][16] - For industry-level heat, the same methodology is applied to calculate the weekly heat change rate (MA2) for Shenwan Level 1 and Level 2 industries. The report highlights that the Shenwan Level 1 industry with the highest positive heat change rate (MA2) this week is "Oil & Petrochemical," which increased by 48.6% compared to the previous week. The industry with the largest negative heat change rate is "Nonferrous Metals," which decreased by -14.2%[20][27] - At the concept level, the report constructs two simple portfolios: a "Heat TOP Portfolio" and a "Heat BOTTOM Portfolio." The "Heat TOP Portfolio" selects the top 10 stocks with the highest total heat within the top 5 concepts with the largest heat change rates. The "Heat BOTTOM Portfolio" selects the bottom 10 stocks with the lowest total heat within the same concepts. The "BOTTOM Portfolio" has historically achieved an annualized return of 15.71%, with a maximum drawdown of 28.89%, and a return of 42% in 2025[31][33]

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market experienced a decline last Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.25% to 3997.56 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.36%, and the ChiNext Index decreasing by 0.51% [2][8] - The total trading volume in the A-share market reached 2.02 trillion RMB, with over 3000 stocks declining. The basic chemical, comprehensive, and oil and petrochemical sectors led the gains, while the computer and electronics sectors lagged [2][8] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index dropped by 0.92%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 1.80%. The US stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones up by 0.16%, the S&P 500 up by 0.13%, and the Nasdaq down by 0.21% [2][8] Industry Overview - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector reported a total revenue of 952.415 billion RMB in the first three quarters of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.59%, ranking 10th among the Shenwan primary industries. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 36.747 billion RMB, up by 11.81%, ranking 11th [10] - The return on equity (ROE) for the sector was 6.62%, an increase of 0.45 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross profit margin and net profit margin were 11.13% and 3.96%, respectively, reflecting increases of 0.41 and 0.33 percentage points [10] - The planting industry achieved a revenue of 70.967 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 4.74%, with a net profit of 1.395 billion RMB, up by 4.06%. The sector's profit growth has turned positive, indicating improving performance [11] - The feed industry reported a revenue of 215.297 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 12.04%, with a net profit of 6.058 billion RMB, up by 22.24%. Most companies in this sector saw revenue growth, and the net profit margin improved due to reduced industry costs [11] - The agricultural product processing sector generated a revenue of 259.411 billion RMB, a slight decline of 0.31%, but the net profit surged by 52.36% to 5.188 billion RMB, indicating a strong profit performance despite a slight revenue drop [12] - The breeding industry recorded a revenue of 366.406 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 6.97%, with a net profit of 23.296 billion RMB, up by 4.52%. However, the growth rate of revenue and net profit showed a decline compared to the second quarter [13] Investment Recommendations - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector's performance in the first three quarters of 2025 showed steady revenue and profit growth, despite a slowdown compared to the first half of the year. The feed, agricultural product processing, and animal health sectors exhibited significant profit growth, while the breeding industry's revenue growth has slowed [10][13] - The pet food industry currently has a low concentration, with domestic companies gradually emerging, indicating substantial growth potential. It is recommended to focus on stable operations of leading pig breeding companies and high-quality domestic pet food brands [13]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with all major indices retreating after initial gains, closing with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.25% at 3997.56 points, the Shenzhen Component down 0.36% at 13404.06 points, and the ChiNext down 0.51% at 3208.21 points [1][3]. Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Basic Chemicals (+2.39%), Comprehensive (+1.45%), Oil & Petrochemicals (+1.38%), Building Materials (+1.22%), and Electric Equipment (+1.01%) [2]. - Conversely, the worst-performing sectors were Computer (-1.83%), Electronics (-1.34%), Household Appliances (-1.17%), Automotive (-1.16%), and Media (-0.87%) [2]. Concept Index Performance - Among concept indices, the Organic Silicon concept led with a gain of 4.65%, followed by Fluorochemical (+3.92%), Silicon Energy (+3.67%), Phosphate Chemical (+3.47%), and Titanium Dioxide (+3.37%) [2]. - The lagging concept indices included Sci-Tech New Shares (-2.27%), Sora Concept (Wensheng Video) (-1.87%), MLOps Concept (-1.82%), Reducer (-1.76%), and Registration System New Shares (-1.70%) [2]. Economic Indicators - In the first ten months of 2025, China's total goods trade value reached 37.31 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.6%. Exports amounted to 22.12 trillion yuan, up 6.2%, while imports were 15.19 trillion yuan, remaining stable compared to the previous year [4]. Trading Volume and Market Sentiment - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2 trillion yuan, a decrease of 562 billion yuan from the previous trading day [5]. - The report indicates that the Chinese economy is in a critical phase of momentum transition, with expectations for gradual improvement in the economic fundamentals in the fourth quarter, supported by policy measures [5]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests a balanced allocation strategy, focusing on sectors such as New Energy, Technology Growth, Dividend Stocks, and Non-ferrous Metals [5].