以下文章来源于i黑马 ，作者i黑马 i黑马 . 让创业者不再孤独@i黑马 常斌，启承资本创始人&管理合伙人，黑马加速导师 曾负责京东集团的战略投资，于2016年创办启承资本，专注消费投资，助力新一代消费冠军。已经投资 了京东物流、万物新生、十月稻田、锅圈食汇、德尔玛、源氏木语、植护、零食很忙、钱大妈、薛记炒 货、海马体、M Stand等知名品牌。 创业黑马和 常斌总，刚发布了一个重磅计划， 文末扫码即可咨询。 大家觉得今天的日子难过，怎么破局？ 我们把目光拉长，看看邻居日本，怎么熬过"失落的三十年"。 日本失落的三十年里，大众二十多年没涨过工资，且老龄化严重。 日子过成这样，但依然涌现出一批优秀的消费冠军： 优衣库，宜得利，711，唐吉诃德，萨莉亚，明治食品…… 从日本我们可以得到两个启示： 一是刚需在不断升级，包括产品和业态两方面。 今天我们都在谈论"下沉市场"。 日本食品的丰富度之高、性价比之高让人印象深刻，在便利店吃一顿饭只用10-20块人民币。 同时，商业业态发生了很大变化，便利店、折扣店替代超市、百货成为主流业态，可以做到既 便宜又方便且有体验感。 二是平替的大量出现。 日本三十年前是全球最大的奢侈 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the structural opportunities in China's consumer market, particularly focusing on the 900 million people in lower-tier cities as the main consumer base for future growth [5][12]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The consumer landscape in China has shifted, with the previous focus on high-end brands in first-tier cities evolving to include a broader range of products catering to lower-tier markets [5][6]. - The connection between high-tier and low-tier markets has been established, allowing for a more integrated consumer experience across different city levels [7][9]. - The emergence of new business models based on modern infrastructure and production relationships is crucial for capitalizing on these market changes [11][12]. Group 2: Consumer Segmentation - The consumer market can be visualized as a cake, with the affluent class at the top, the middle class facing economic pressures in the middle, and the 900 million people in lower-tier cities forming the base [9]. - The article identifies two structural opportunities in the consumer market: the rise of new national brands and the development of new nationwide chains [13]. Group 3: Consumption Trends - The "启承消费时钟" (Qicheng Consumption Clock) categorizes consumer behavior into four phases: essential needs, optional purchases, alternatives, and upgrades, reflecting the changing economic conditions [12][13]. - The pandemic has shifted consumer preferences, with essential goods gaining prominence while optional items have become less prioritized [12][13]. - The rise of discount brands and alternative products is noted, with examples like "鸣鸣很忙" in the snack sector, indicating a trend towards value-oriented consumption [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the structural opportunities in China's consumer market, particularly focusing on the 900 million people in lower-tier cities as the main consumer base for future growth [5][12]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The consumer landscape in China has shifted, with the previous focus on high-end brands in first-tier cities evolving to include a broader range of products catering to lower-tier markets [5][6]. - The connection between high-tier and low-tier markets has been established, allowing for a more integrated consumer experience [7]. - The article highlights the emergence of new business models based on China's new infrastructure and production relationships, which enhance efficiency in information flow and supply chains [11][12]. Group 2: Consumer Segmentation - The consumer market is segmented into three layers: the affluent class, the middle class under economic pressure, and the 900 million people in lower-tier cities who represent the main market [9]. - The affluent class consumes globally, while the middle class faces challenges due to economic adjustments, and the lower-tier market shows potential for growth as purchasing power is released [9][12]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The article identifies two structural opportunities in the consumer market: the rise of new national brands and the development of new nationwide chains [13]. - The "启承消费时钟" (Qicheng Consumption Clock) is introduced, categorizing consumer goods into four phases: essential needs, optional purchases, alternatives, and upgrades, reflecting the changing economic conditions [12][13]. - The growth of discount brands and alternative products is noted, with examples such as "鸣鸣很忙" in the snack sector, indicating a shift towards more affordable options [13].