Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of learning from Japan's experience during its "lost thirty years" to identify structural opportunities in China's consumer market, focusing on the emergence of new national brands and nationwide chains [7][28]. Group 1: Insights from Japan - Japan experienced stagnant wages and severe aging during its lost thirty years, yet it produced successful consumer champions like Uniqlo and 7-Eleven, highlighting the importance of upgrading essential needs and changing business formats [8][9]. - The rise of affordable alternatives in Japan, such as Uniqlo, shifted consumer focus from luxury to practicality, indicating a trend that could be mirrored in China [10][11]. - Key lessons for Chinese companies include the need for extreme cost-performance ratios, unique offline retail experiences, and high execution efficiency [12][13]. Group 2: Opportunities in China's Consumer Market - The article identifies the "downstream market" as the most mainstream and core market for the next two to three decades in China, emphasizing the need to discover new national brands and chains [14][28]. - The author reflects on the early days of JD.com, noting its growth from 1 billion in revenue to becoming China's first trillion-yuan retail enterprise, showcasing the potential for rapid growth in the consumer sector [15][18]. - The investment firm, Qicheng Capital, has focused on supporting new consumer champions, with over 20 companies in its portfolio, including several that have achieved significant revenue milestones [24][25]. Group 3: Structural Opportunities in the Consumer Market - The article posits two structural opportunities in the Chinese consumer market: the emergence of new national brands and the development of new nationwide chains [28]. - The success of companies like Delmar and Qicheng during the pandemic illustrates the potential for growth in the food sector, which has seen significant opportunities arise from market changes [26][27]. - The upcoming "Black Horse Consumption Rise" course aims to provide insights into how Chinese and Japanese consumer companies can thrive in the current market environment [29][30].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of a new generation of national brands in mature industries, highlighting their rapid growth and innovative approaches to product and channel development [4][5][7]. Group 1: New Generation National Brands - New generation national brands are identified as those that leverage existing categories to create impactful new brands through innovative products and models [4]. - Three companies backed by Qicheng Capital have achieved annual sales of over 5 billion, exemplifying this trend: October Rice Field, Zhihui, and Genji Wood Language [5]. - These brands can quickly establish significant market positions in mature industries, continuously refining their product models to create new products with a scale of 1 billion [7]. Group 2: Online and Offline Integration - The new generation of national brands excels in becoming omnichannel champions by effectively utilizing online platforms like JD.com, Tmall, and Douyin to achieve rapid growth [8]. - By leveraging online success, these brands can transition into offline channels, aiming for sales scales between 5 billion and 10 billion [8]. Group 3: Case Studies of Successful Brands - October Rice Field has become the leading online brand in the rice category, achieving nearly 5 billion in sales last year and listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [9]. - The brand's success is attributed to its high-quality sourcing, efficient supply chain management, and strong market share [10][11]. - Genji Wood Language has focused on health-conscious materials and aesthetic appeal, achieving significant sales growth by starting online and expanding to offline stores [12][14]. - The brand has capitalized on local supply chain advantages and competitive pricing to attract consumers [13][14]. - Zhihui has disrupted the paper towel market by offering affordable products directly to consumers, gaining a large user base in lower-tier cities [17][18]. - The brand's innovative packaging and marketing strategies have led to explosive sales growth, particularly through platforms like Douyin [20][21].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of a new generation of national brands that leverage innovative products and business models to gain significant market share in mature industries [4][5]. Group 1: New Generation National Brands - New generation national brands are defined as those that identify opportunities within existing large categories to create impactful new brands through innovative products and models [4]. - Three companies, October Rice Field, Yuan Shi Mu Yu, and Zhi Hu, have achieved annual sales of over 5 billion, exemplifying the success of new generation national brands [5]. - These brands can rapidly grow in mature industries, establishing effective industry positions while continuously refining their product models to create new products with a scale of 1 billion [7]. Group 2: Omnichannel Strategy - New generation national brands excel as omnichannel champions, effectively combining online and offline strategies to achieve rapid growth [8]. - By utilizing online platforms like JD.com, Tmall, and Douyin, these brands can reach a scale of 1 billion within 2-5 years and then leverage that momentum to enter offline channels, aiming for a scale of 5 billion to 10 billion [8][9]. Group 3: Case Studies October Rice Field - October Rice Field is the leading online brand in the rice category, achieving nearly 5 billion in sales last year and listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [10]. - The brand's success is attributed to three advantages: high-quality sourcing from Northeast China, efficient supply chain management, and strong market share [11]. - The case of October Rice Field illustrates how traditional industries can be upgraded through product, channel, and brand innovation [12]. Yuan Shi Mu Yu - Yuan Shi Mu Yu has built its brand by addressing key issues in the furniture industry, such as health concerns and aesthetic appeal [13]. - The company capitalizes on local processing capabilities and supply chain management, offering a wide range of products at competitive prices [14]. - Yuan Shi Mu Yu achieved 1 billion in sales by starting online and expanding to offline stores, with plans to increase its store count from 900 to over 1200 [14]. Zhi Hu - Zhi Hu has rapidly grown in the tissue paper category by offering affordable products directly to consumers, targeting lower-tier cities [15]. - The brand innovated its product packaging and marketing strategies, leading to significant sales growth on platforms like Douyin [16]. - Zhi Hu's approach demonstrates the importance of consumer-centric innovation and emotional value in driving product premiumization [17].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the structural opportunities in China's consumer market, particularly focusing on the 900 million people in lower-tier cities as the main consumer base for future growth [5][12]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The consumer landscape in China has shifted, with the previous focus on high-end brands in first-tier cities evolving to include a broader range of products catering to lower-tier markets [5][6]. - The connection between high-tier and low-tier markets has been established, allowing for a more integrated consumer experience across different city levels [7][9]. - The emergence of new business models based on modern infrastructure and production relationships is crucial for capitalizing on these market changes [11][12]. Group 2: Consumer Segmentation - The consumer market can be visualized as a cake, with the affluent class at the top, the middle class facing economic pressures in the middle, and the 900 million people in lower-tier cities forming the base [9]. - The article identifies two structural opportunities in the consumer market: the rise of new national brands and the development of new nationwide chains [13]. Group 3: Consumption Trends - The "启承消费时钟" (Qicheng Consumption Clock) categorizes consumer behavior into four phases: essential needs, optional purchases, alternatives, and upgrades, reflecting the changing economic conditions [12][13]. - The pandemic has shifted consumer preferences, with essential goods gaining prominence while optional items have become less prioritized [12][13]. - The rise of discount brands and alternative products is noted, with examples like "鸣鸣很忙" in the snack sector, indicating a trend towards value-oriented consumption [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the structural opportunities in China's consumer market, particularly focusing on the 900 million people in lower-tier cities as the main consumer base for future growth [5][12]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The consumer landscape in China has shifted, with the previous focus on high-end brands in first-tier cities evolving to include a broader range of products catering to lower-tier markets [5][6]. - The connection between high-tier and low-tier markets has been established, allowing for a more integrated consumer experience [7]. - The article highlights the emergence of new business models based on China's new infrastructure and production relationships, which enhance efficiency in information flow and supply chains [11][12]. Group 2: Consumer Segmentation - The consumer market is segmented into three layers: the affluent class, the middle class under economic pressure, and the 900 million people in lower-tier cities who represent the main market [9]. - The affluent class consumes globally, while the middle class faces challenges due to economic adjustments, and the lower-tier market shows potential for growth as purchasing power is released [9][12]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The article identifies two structural opportunities in the consumer market: the rise of new national brands and the development of new nationwide chains [13]. - The "启承消费时钟" (Qicheng Consumption Clock) is introduced, categorizing consumer goods into four phases: essential needs, optional purchases, alternatives, and upgrades, reflecting the changing economic conditions [12][13]. - The growth of discount brands and alternative products is noted, with examples such as "鸣鸣很忙" in the snack sector, indicating a shift towards more affordable options [13].