以下文章来源于i黑马 ，作者i黑马 i黑马 . 让创业者不再孤独@i黑马 常斌，启承资本创始人&管理合伙人，黑马加速导师 曾负责京东集团的战略投资，于2016年创办启承资本，专注消费投资，助力新一代消费冠军。已经投资 了京东物流、万物新生、十月稻田、锅圈食汇、德尔玛、源氏木语、植护、零食很忙、钱大妈、薛记炒 货、海马体、M Stand等知名品牌。 创业黑马和 常斌总，刚发布了一个重磅计划， 文末扫码即可咨询。 大家觉得今天的日子难过，怎么破局？ 我们把目光拉长，看看邻居日本，怎么熬过"失落的三十年"。 日本失落的三十年里，大众二十多年没涨过工资，且老龄化严重。 日子过成这样，但依然涌现出一批优秀的消费冠军： 优衣库，宜得利，711，唐吉诃德，萨莉亚，明治食品…… 从日本我们可以得到两个启示： 一是刚需在不断升级，包括产品和业态两方面。 今天我们都在谈论"下沉市场"。 日本食品的丰富度之高、性价比之高让人印象深刻，在便利店吃一顿饭只用10-20块人民币。 同时，商业业态发生了很大变化，便利店、折扣店替代超市、百货成为主流业态，可以做到既 便宜又方便且有体验感。 二是平替的大量出现。 日本三十年前是全球最大的奢侈 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of a new generation of national brands in mature industries, highlighting their rapid growth and innovative approaches to product and channel development [4][5][7]. Group 1: New Generation National Brands - New generation national brands are identified as those that leverage existing categories to create impactful new brands through innovative products and models [4]. - Three companies backed by Qicheng Capital have achieved annual sales of over 5 billion, exemplifying this trend: October Rice Field, Zhihui, and Genji Wood Language [5]. - These brands can quickly establish significant market positions in mature industries, continuously refining their product models to create new products with a scale of 1 billion [7]. Group 2: Online and Offline Integration - The new generation of national brands excels in becoming omnichannel champions by effectively utilizing online platforms like JD.com, Tmall, and Douyin to achieve rapid growth [8]. - By leveraging online success, these brands can transition into offline channels, aiming for sales scales between 5 billion and 10 billion [8]. Group 3: Case Studies of Successful Brands - October Rice Field has become the leading online brand in the rice category, achieving nearly 5 billion in sales last year and listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [9]. - The brand's success is attributed to its high-quality sourcing, efficient supply chain management, and strong market share [10][11]. - Genji Wood Language has focused on health-conscious materials and aesthetic appeal, achieving significant sales growth by starting online and expanding to offline stores [12][14]. - The brand has capitalized on local supply chain advantages and competitive pricing to attract consumers [13][14]. - Zhihui has disrupted the paper towel market by offering affordable products directly to consumers, gaining a large user base in lower-tier cities [17][18]. - The brand's innovative packaging and marketing strategies have led to explosive sales growth, particularly through platforms like Douyin [20][21].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of a new generation of national brands that leverage innovative products and business models to gain significant market share in mature industries [4][5]. Group 1: New Generation National Brands - New generation national brands are defined as those that identify opportunities within existing large categories to create impactful new brands through innovative products and models [4]. - Three companies, October Rice Field, Yuan Shi Mu Yu, and Zhi Hu, have achieved annual sales of over 5 billion, exemplifying the success of new generation national brands [5]. - These brands can rapidly grow in mature industries, establishing effective industry positions while continuously refining their product models to create new products with a scale of 1 billion [7]. Group 2: Omnichannel Strategy - New generation national brands excel as omnichannel champions, effectively combining online and offline strategies to achieve rapid growth [8]. - By utilizing online platforms like JD.com, Tmall, and Douyin, these brands can reach a scale of 1 billion within 2-5 years and then leverage that momentum to enter offline channels, aiming for a scale of 5 billion to 10 billion [8][9]. Group 3: Case Studies October Rice Field - October Rice Field is the leading online brand in the rice category, achieving nearly 5 billion in sales last year and listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [10]. - The brand's success is attributed to three advantages: high-quality sourcing from Northeast China, efficient supply chain management, and strong market share [11]. - The case of October Rice Field illustrates how traditional industries can be upgraded through product, channel, and brand innovation [12]. Yuan Shi Mu Yu - Yuan Shi Mu Yu has built its brand by addressing key issues in the furniture industry, such as health concerns and aesthetic appeal [13]. - The company capitalizes on local processing capabilities and supply chain management, offering a wide range of products at competitive prices [14]. - Yuan Shi Mu Yu achieved 1 billion in sales by starting online and expanding to offline stores, with plans to increase its store count from 900 to over 1200 [14]. Zhi Hu - Zhi Hu has rapidly grown in the tissue paper category by offering affordable products directly to consumers, targeting lower-tier cities [15]. - The brand innovated its product packaging and marketing strategies, leading to significant sales growth on platforms like Douyin [16]. - Zhi Hu's approach demonstrates the importance of consumer-centric innovation and emotional value in driving product premiumization [17].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the structural opportunities in China's consumer market, particularly focusing on the 900 million people in lower-tier cities as the main consumer base for future growth [5][12]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The consumer landscape in China has shifted, with the previous focus on high-end brands in first-tier cities evolving to include a broader range of products catering to lower-tier markets [5][6]. - The connection between high-tier and low-tier markets has been established, allowing for a more integrated consumer experience across different city levels [7][9]. - The emergence of new business models based on modern infrastructure and production relationships is crucial for capitalizing on these market changes [11][12]. Group 2: Consumer Segmentation - The consumer market can be visualized as a cake, with the affluent class at the top, the middle class facing economic pressures in the middle, and the 900 million people in lower-tier cities forming the base [9]. - The article identifies two structural opportunities in the consumer market: the rise of new national brands and the development of new nationwide chains [13]. Group 3: Consumption Trends - The "启承消费时钟" (Qicheng Consumption Clock) categorizes consumer behavior into four phases: essential needs, optional purchases, alternatives, and upgrades, reflecting the changing economic conditions [12][13]. - The pandemic has shifted consumer preferences, with essential goods gaining prominence while optional items have become less prioritized [12][13]. - The rise of discount brands and alternative products is noted, with examples like "鸣鸣很忙" in the snack sector, indicating a trend towards value-oriented consumption [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the structural opportunities in China's consumer market, particularly focusing on the 900 million people in lower-tier cities as the main consumer base for future growth [5][12]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The consumer landscape in China has shifted, with the previous focus on high-end brands in first-tier cities evolving to include a broader range of products catering to lower-tier markets [5][6]. - The connection between high-tier and low-tier markets has been established, allowing for a more integrated consumer experience [7]. - The article highlights the emergence of new business models based on China's new infrastructure and production relationships, which enhance efficiency in information flow and supply chains [11][12]. Group 2: Consumer Segmentation - The consumer market is segmented into three layers: the affluent class, the middle class under economic pressure, and the 900 million people in lower-tier cities who represent the main market [9]. - The affluent class consumes globally, while the middle class faces challenges due to economic adjustments, and the lower-tier market shows potential for growth as purchasing power is released [9][12]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The article identifies two structural opportunities in the consumer market: the rise of new national brands and the development of new nationwide chains [13]. - The "启承消费时钟" (Qicheng Consumption Clock) is introduced, categorizing consumer goods into four phases: essential needs, optional purchases, alternatives, and upgrades, reflecting the changing economic conditions [12][13]. - The growth of discount brands and alternative products is noted, with examples such as "鸣鸣很忙" in the snack sector, indicating a shift towards more affordable options [13].