Core Insights - The article discusses the phenomenon of "de-dollarization" in the context of a weakening US dollar and highlights the importance of understanding the international monetary system through a recommended reading list of 20 classic works [3][24]. Group 1: Hot Topics - The rumor of "firing" Powell has led to significant market reactions, including declines in stocks, bonds, and currencies [2][3]. - The article explores the potential implications of Trump's ability to dismiss Powell and whether Powell might resign early [3][10]. - A focus on how overseas countries are addressing issues of overcapacity and competition, with examples from Japan and Germany, is presented as a reference for China's future policy [6][20]. Group 2: Export Trends - Following an unexpected rise in June exports, there is speculation on whether July exports will also exceed expectations, with traditional indicators showing a downward bias [10][11]. - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring "hidden" indicators that could provide insights into export performance [10]. Group 3: Domestic and International Tracking - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has reached a new high for the year, indicating a recovery in industrial production and construction activity [15][16]. - The US may increase tariffs on European goods following weaker-than-expected core CPI data for June [18][19]. Group 4: Policy Insights - The Central Urban Work Conference held in Beijing outlines a shift in urbanization from rapid growth to stable development, emphasizing the need for a people-centered approach and improved urban governance [21][20]. - Key strategies include optimizing urban systems, fostering innovation, and enhancing livability while addressing environmental concerns [21]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The article raises questions about where the new "three trillion" investments will be directed, particularly in the context of GDP per capita transitioning from $10,000 to $30,000, which typically shifts demand towards the service sector [24][23].

Core Insights - The article discusses the potential for a new "3 trillion" investment, focusing on the transition of demand towards the service sector as GDP per capita reaches between $10,000 and $30,000, while highlighting the current supply constraints in services and the investment gap that exists [4]. Group 1: Deep Dive Topics - The article emphasizes the need for investment in human capital to bridge the existing gaps in service supply and to facilitate the transition towards a service-oriented economy [4]. Group 2: Hot Topics - The article explores the contrasting expectations and realities of inflation in the U.S. post-tariff implementation, questioning whether inflation will resurge in the latter half of the year [8]. - It also discusses the significance of the "15th Five-Year Plan" as a critical period leading up to the 2035 vision, outlining potential focus areas for development [10]. - The article addresses geopolitical risks, specifically regarding Iran's decision to block the Strait of Hormuz, and evaluates the credibility of such threats and their potential market impacts [13]. Group 3: High-Frequency Tracking - Domestic shipping prices have been on the rise, indicating a recovery in port freight volumes despite overall weak infrastructure construction activity [15]. - In the U.S., recent bond auctions have performed better than expected, while retail sales data for May fell short of projections, indicating mixed economic signals [20].

Group 1: Investment Opportunities in the Service Sector - The current service industry investment gap is approximately 3 trillion yuan, indicating significant potential for growth[1] - In 2024, the per capita service consumption gap compared to historical trends is estimated at 2,093 yuan, translating to a national potential service consumption gap of nearly 3 trillion yuan[1] - The potential investment gap in the service sector, aligned with value-added growth, is estimated at 1.5 trillion yuan[1] Group 2: Demographic Trends and Consumption Patterns - As GDP per capita reaches 20,000 USD, service industry investment could see an additional increment of around 3.7 trillion yuan, driven by aging population dynamics[3] - The aging population correlates with increased service consumption, with a 1% rise in aging rate leading to a 1.3% increase in service consumption share[2] - The shift towards smaller household sizes is expected to further stimulate demand for services such as home care and entertainment[2] Group 3: Global Comparisons and Lessons - Historical data from Japan shows that as it entered an aging society, service industry investment significantly increased, with service investment share rising to 11.6% when GDP per capita reached 20,000 USD[4] - The U.S. and Japan demonstrate a positive feedback loop where increased service demand drives supply and investment growth, highlighting the importance of consumer preferences shifting from goods to services[2] - The service sector's contribution to GDP in China is currently at 54.6%, which is lower than that of South Korea, indicating room for growth in lifestyle services[5]