摘要 美国总统特朗普提名凯文·沃什为下一任美联储主席后，市场高度关注这是否会带来货币政策显著转 向。沃什在2011年因不满当时的多轮量化宽松操作从美联储理事会辞职，此后长期批评美联储的政策与 实践。沃什在2025年5月在胡佛研究所有一个深度访谈[2]，系统阐述了其政策理念，包括：1）通胀是 政策选择，央行可以通过控制货币供应来控制通胀，符合通胀是货币现象的货币主义观；2）沃什认为 美联储自2008年金融危机后资产负债表过度膨胀，扭曲了市场，主张通过缩减资产负债表（缩表）控制 通胀，为降低利率创造空间；3）收缩美联储职能：沃什批评美联储角色涉足气候、包容性等非核心议 题，主张回归物价稳定和金融稳定核心法定职责；4）改革央行与政府关系：呼吁重新明确央行与财政 部的职权划分，部分资产负债表的控制权可移交给财政部。 这些主张使得沃什被视为货币政策"鹰派"，但他近期支持特朗普加快降息的要求，导致市场聚焦其提出 的降息和缩表的政策组合，降息是宽松的含义，而缩表有紧缩的效果，两者似乎矛盾。从金融市场的反 应看，美股下挫、贵金属价格和比特币价格下跌、美元汇率和美债利率反弹，显示投资者更担心紧缩的 影响。降息与缩表的组合似乎是 ...

点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 美国总统特朗普提名凯文·沃什为下一任美联储主席后，市场高度关注这是否会带来货币政策显著转向。沃什在2011年因不满当时的多轮量化宽松操作从 美联储理事会辞职，此后长期批评美联储的政策与实践。沃什在2025年5月在胡佛研究所有一个深度访谈[2]，系统阐述了其政策理念，包括：1）通胀是 政策选择，央行可以通过控制货币供应来控制通胀，符合通胀是货币现象的货币主义观；2）沃什认为美联储自2008年金融危机后资产负债表过度膨胀， 扭曲了市场，主张通过缩减资产负债表（缩表）控制通胀，为降低利率创造空间；3）收缩美联储职能：沃什批评美联储角色涉足气候、包容性等非核心 议题，主张回归物价稳定和金融稳定核心法定职责；4）改革央行与政府关系：呼吁重新明确央行与财政部的职权划分，部分资产负债表的控制权可移交 给财政部。 T正文ext 一、内生货币 vs 外生货币 我们可以从货币的角色谈起，在访谈中沃什对美联储的一个批评是其只重视利率、不重视货币数量的作用。实际上，美联储的观点只是反映了金融自由化 时代主流经济学的理念。如何理解这个问题？降息的政策操作标的是利率，缩表的操作标的是货币数 ...

Core Viewpoint - The speech emphasizes the need for coordination between fiscal and monetary policies to address medium-term economic fluctuations and ensure sustainable growth [3][4][7]. Group 1: Economic Theories and Adjustments - The traditional New Keynesian theory suggests that the economy can achieve macro balance in the medium to long term, but short-term frictions can lead to welfare losses, necessitating counter-cyclical monetary policy [3]. - There is a call for reflection and adjustment of this framework, particularly emphasizing the importance of medium-term fluctuations and the need for cross-cycle adjustments, which may require greater intensity than counter-cyclical adjustments [4]. Group 2: Medium-term Influencing Factors - Financial cycles are identified as a medium-term force, with the current phase being a downward trend, leading to a relative demand shortage compared to supply [5]. - Economies of scale are highlighted as another medium-term influencing factor, with the green industry and AI being significant contributors. The green industry benefits from economies of scale, while fossil energy typically does not [5][6]. - AI's impact on economic growth is debated, with estimates suggesting it could contribute an additional 0.8-1.3 percentage points to annual growth over the next decade, while other analyses predict a more modest increase of 0.07 percentage points [6]. Group 3: Geoeconomic Issues - The shift in China's trade partners towards the "Belt and Road" initiative and the increasing share of direct investment in these countries are noted as significant geoeconomic trends [7]. - Both economies of scale and geoeconomic factors contribute to the relative demand shortage, necessitating coordinated fiscal and monetary policies to boost domestic demand and ensure sustainable medium-term growth [7].