Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][10] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 met expectations, with a sequential decline in cash receipts, but overall profitability remained stable. The introduction of new products, new models, and new marketing strategies is expected to drive growth in the second half of the year as the contribution from new products combined with a lower base is anticipated to improve growth rates [2][10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 7,030 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 20.1%. However, revenue is expected to decline by 27.8% in 2025, followed by a recovery in subsequent years with growth rates of 4.5% and 5.1% in 2026 and 2027 respectively [4][11]. - Adjusted net profit for 2023 is estimated at 1,623 million RMB, reflecting a significant increase of 35.5% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit is expected to decline by 27.5% in 2025, with a gradual recovery in the following years [4][11]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to be 25.11 in 2025, indicating a higher valuation compared to previous years [4][11]. Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 40%. The adjusted net profit was 610 million RMB, also down 40% year-on-year, aligning with prior announcements regarding performance [10]. - The overall gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 59.0%, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.2 percentage points. The sales expense ratio was 22.2%, up 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [10]. Brand Performance - Revenue from the brand "Zhenjiu" in the first half of 2025 was 1.49 billion RMB, down 45% year-on-year. The "Lidu" brand generated 610 million RMB, a decline of 9% year-on-year, while "Xiangjiao" and "Kaikouxiao" saw declines of 39% and 64% respectively [10]. - The high-end and next-high-end liquor segments experienced significant revenue declines of 47% and 42% respectively, attributed to weak demand and ongoing impacts from drinking policies [10]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has been cautious in its shipping pace to alleviate channel inventory pressure amid significant industry downturns since the second half of 2024. New product launches and innovative business models are being implemented to enhance market presence and drive sales [10].

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that while Moutai's new product maintains its reputation and consumer interest, it serves more as a supplementary boost rather than a significant turnaround for the company [1][7]. Financial Performance - Moutai's total revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 91.094 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 45.403 billion yuan, averaging 250 million yuan per day [1]. - In the second quarter, revenue was 38.788 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of only 7.28%, while net profit grew by just 5.25%, indicating a slowdown compared to the first quarter and falling short of most broker expectations [2][3]. - The revenue and net profit growth rates have dropped to single digits, marking the lowest in nearly a decade and the first time since 2015 that mid-year revenue growth has fallen below 10% [1][2]. Market Dynamics - The decline in contract liabilities, which reflects the willingness of distributors to make payments, has significantly decreased, with a reported drop of 42.59% compared to the end of the previous year, totaling only 5.507 billion yuan by the end of June [2][3]. - The competitive landscape in the high-end liquor market is intensifying, with other brands emerging and diverting consumer interest away from Moutai [3]. New Product Launch - The newly launched "Moutai Five-Star 70th Anniversary Commemorative Wine," priced at 7,000 yuan per bottle, sold out within minutes, generating approximately 180 million yuan in sales [5][7]. - Despite the initial hype, industry experts believe that the long-term impact of this product on Moutai's overall performance will be limited, as the price point exceeds the affordability of most Chinese consumers [5][7]. Strategic Initiatives - Moutai is actively pursuing international expansion, with overseas revenue surpassing 2.893 billion yuan in the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 31.29% [9][10]. - The company is also focusing on product innovation, introducing new packaging and product lines to diversify its offerings and strengthen its market position [11]. - A significant share buyback of 5.301 billion yuan, representing 0.2748% of the total share capital, has been executed, marking the first large-scale repurchase since its listing in 2001 [12].