Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue at 310.28 billion yuan, down 5.48% year-on-year, and net profit at 122.69 billion yuan, down 6.63% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025, the industry reported revenue of 76.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.4%, and net profit of 28.21 billion yuan, down 22.0% year-on-year [1] - The report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) indicates a shift in consumer preferences towards high quality, functional, and health-oriented products, with leading companies focusing on stable operations and high-quality development [1] Industry Overview - The liquor industry's revenue and profit growth rates are categorized as national famous liquor > real estate liquor > sub-high-end liquor [1] - The demand for liquor remains weak, compounded by new regulations affecting both supply and demand, leading to significant adjustments in the market [1] - The report anticipates a continuation of weak recovery and strong differentiation in the industry, with growth increasingly reliant on product innovation, fragmented channel strategies, and expanding consumer demographics [1] Future Outlook - CICC forecasts that the liquor industry will see improvements in 2026, with demand expected to recover gradually as policy impacts diminish and consumption scenarios stabilize [2] - The report suggests that leading liquor companies with strong brand power and innovative products will benefit the most from the anticipated recovery [2] - Guangfa Securities notes that the performance disparity among liquor companies has increased, with strong brands showing resilience amid ongoing pressure [2] Company Specifics - Zhenjiu Lidu (06979) launched its new flagship product "Dazhen," which has already generated 370 million yuan in returns and signed over 2,800 alliance merchants nationwide [3] - The introduction of "Dazhen" is expected to enhance Zhenjiu Lidu's growth trajectory by positioning it alongside its existing product lines, Zhen 15 and Zhen 30, focusing on high quality and price competitiveness [3]

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue at 310.28 billion yuan, down 5.48% year-on-year, and net profit at 122.69 billion yuan, down 6.63% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025, the industry reported revenue of 76.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.4%, and net profit of 28.21 billion yuan, down 22.0% year-on-year [1] - The industry is characterized by a trend of weak recovery and strong differentiation, with growth increasingly dependent on product innovation and channel expansion [1][2] Industry Overview - The consumption environment remains weak, with a focus on high quality-price ratios, functionality, health, and emotional consumption trends [1] - Major leading companies are concentrating on stable operations and high-quality development, improving shareholder returns and operational quality [1] - The demand for liquor continues to show weak performance, compounded by new regulations affecting both supply and demand [1] Future Outlook - According to research, the liquor industry is expected to see a gradual improvement in 2026, with demand likely to recover as policy impacts diminish [2] - The first half of 2026 may witness a sequential recovery, particularly benefiting leading liquor companies with strong fundamentals [2] - The differentiation among liquor companies is increasing, with strong brand power allowing leading firms to demonstrate resilience [2] Company Specifics - Zhenjiu Lidu (06979) launched its new flagship product "Dazhen," which has already generated 370 million yuan in returns and signed over 2,800 alliance merchants [3] - The new product aims to position itself alongside existing series, potentially creating a third growth curve for the company [3]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The overall sales in the industry are expected to decline by over 20%, with a gradual improvement month-on-month and a narrowing decline in the festive season of Mid-Autumn and National Day, estimated at around 20% [1] - Business banquets are performing weakly, while mass consumption and wedding banquets are relatively resilient, with a smaller decline in Q3; high-end gifting shows improvement before the holidays [1] - Major liquor companies are adopting a more pragmatic approach, accelerating adjustments to reduce channel pressure, cutting investment, and enhancing operational efficiency [1] Group 2: Company Performance - Leading liquor companies like Moutai and Wuliangye have achieved over 80% collection progress, while regional companies are generally around 70%, with pressure on mid-tier liquor companies [1] - Wuliangye has held dealer meetings in multiple locations, emphasizing strict checks on market price disruptions and announcing increased subsidy policies for different-sized dealers [1] - The report from Citic Securities indicates that the bottom of the industry fundamentals is expected to appear in Q3 2025, with Q3 of this year being the most challenging period for sales, prices, and market confidence [2] Group 3: Market Trends - Huachuang Securities highlights the importance of bottom catalysts in the liquor sector, with traditional consumption entering a bottom accumulation phase, and seasonal catalysts expected to drive valuation recovery [3] - The launch of the new flagship product "Dazhen" by Zhenjiu Lidu has achieved a collection of 370 million yuan, with over 2,800 alliance merchants signed [4] - In the beer sector, the acquisition of 53% of Xianpi Fulu's shares by Mixue Ice City marks its expansion into the alcoholic beverage market, with the financial performance to be consolidated into the group’s reports [5]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The overall sales in the industry are expected to decline by over 20% due to external demand shocks, with a gradual improvement month-on-month and a narrowing decline in the festive periods of Mid-Autumn and National Day, estimated at around 20% [1] - Business banquets are performing weakly, while mass consumption and wedding banquets are relatively resilient, with a smaller decline in Q3; high-end gifting shows improvement before the holidays [1] - Major liquor companies are adopting a more pragmatic approach, accelerating adjustments to reduce channel pressure, cutting investment, and enhancing operational efficiency [1] Group 2: Company Performance - Leading liquor companies such as Moutai, Wuliangye, and Fenjiu have achieved over 80% collection progress, while regional companies are generally around 70%, with pressure on mid-range liquor companies [1] - Wuliangye has held dealer meetings in multiple locations, emphasizing strict checks on market price disruptions and announcing increased subsidy policies for different-sized dealers [1] - The report from Citic Securities indicates that the third quarter of this year is expected to be the most challenging period for the industry's sales, prices, and market confidence, with a recovery trend anticipated in the latter half of the year [2] Group 3: Market Trends - Huachuang Securities highlights the importance of bottom catalysts in the liquor sector, with traditional consumption entering a bottom accumulation phase, and upcoming peak seasons likely to drive valuation recovery [3] - The launch of the new flagship product "Dazhen" by Zhenjiu Lidu has achieved a collection of 370 million yuan, with over 2,800 national alliance merchants signed [4] - The beer sector is facing increased competition and pressure from alcohol restrictions, with companies like China Resources Beer and Qingdao Beer maintaining stable pre-holiday stocking rhythms [5]

重视内需：消费各行业 Q3 绩优方向及 26 年高确定性方向 梳理 20251015 摘要 三季度业绩良好的公司，尤其在新消费领域，年底和明年估值优势显著。 食品饮料板块中，盐津铺子、卫龙、天润、新乳业、妙可蓝多、百合股 份、汾酒和茅台值得关注。 家电板块中，美的和海尔业绩预期良好，股息率高，值得配置。海信视 像和 TCL 电子受益于 Mini LED 渗透率上升。冰融环境、新帅尔等零部 件公司因核心竞争力强且估值低具备投资价值。 零售行业投资主线包括双十一促销季及三季报高增长标的。推荐网易严 选、水象等低基数高增长公司，关注毛戈平、上美股份和若羽臣等持续 高增长标的。 白酒行业面临压力，但汾酒、茅台仍具配置价值。珍酒的大珍产品及酒 鬼酒在特定渠道表现突出。酒店行业短期承压，但华住集团和亚朵等龙 头公司仍具优势。 AI 技术显著提升企业业绩，如水漾和上海家化通过 AI 优化产品生命周期 管理。上海家化通过新产品和价格带策略开启品牌新周期，保障持续增 长。 Q&A 近期市场波动较大，消费板块的表现如何？ 近期市场波动较大，从高位的科技板块向低位的消费板块进行高低切换的趋势 明显。尤其是一些业绩趋势较好的消费方向 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Zhenjiu Lidu (06979) has increased by over 5%, currently trading at HKD 9.33 with a transaction volume of HKD 41.78 million, following the announcement of a leadership change within the company [1] Group 1: Leadership Changes - Former CEO Yan Tao has stepped down and will now serve as Executive Director and Vice Chairman of the Board, assisting Group Chairman Wu Xiangdong and Xiangjiao Liquor Industry [1] - The new CEO is Tang Xiangyang, who has been with the group since 1989 and has over 30 years of experience in the Chinese liquor industry [1] Group 2: Product Launch and Performance - Zhenjiu Lidu's latest flagship product "Dazhen" has been officially launched, with a reported revenue of HKD 370 million and over 2,800 national alliance merchants signed [1] - Huaxin Securities noted that the introduction of "Dazhen" is expected to create a third growth curve for Zhenjiu, positioning it alongside the Zhen 15 and Zhen 30 series due to its high quality and cost-effectiveness [1]

消息面上，珍酒李渡发布公告，原CEO颜涛卸任，转任执行董事兼董事会副主席，未来将协助集团主席 吴向东及湘窖酒业运营。新任CEO由集团副总裁汤向阳担任，全面负责珍酒、李渡等核心品牌业务。公 开资料显示，现年57岁的汤向阳自1989年加入集团，历任江西李渡酒业有限公司总经理、集团副总裁等 职务，在中国酒业领域拥有逾30年从业经验。 值得注意的是，珍酒李渡旗下最新超级单品"大珍"此前正式上市，在发布会上，珍酒李渡集团董事长吴 向东透露，大珍回款已经达到了3.7亿元，全国签约联盟商数量达2800多家。华鑫证券此前指出，上半 年公司推出全新旗舰产品"大珍"，定位协同珍15、珍30系列，高质价比有望构筑珍酒第三增长曲线。 智通财经APP获悉，珍酒李渡(06979)再涨超5%，截至发稿，涨5.3%，报9.33港元，成交额4178.22万港 元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Zhenjiu Lidu (06979) has seen a decline of nearly 5%, currently trading at 8.62 HKD, with a trading volume of 93.05 million HKD. The overall market sentiment reflects concerns about the liquor industry's performance during the upcoming holiday season and potential price pressures in the near term [1]. Industry Summary - The liquor sales have shown a marginal acceleration about a week before the holiday, but are expected to decline by approximately 20%, aligning with pre-holiday expectations [1]. - Factors such as upcoming sales tasks, year-end seasonal cash flow pressures, and e-commerce subsidies during the Double Eleven shopping festival are anticipated to exert downward pressure on prices from October to November [1]. - According to Guotai Junan, further adjustments to the sector's financial reports are expected by the third quarter of 2025 [1]. Company Summary - Zhenjiu Lidu has recently launched its new flagship product "Dazhen," which has already generated a revenue of 370 million CNY and has signed over 2,800 alliance merchants nationwide [1]. - Huaxin Securities previously indicated that the introduction of "Dazhen" is positioned to complement the Zhen 15 and Zhen 30 series, with a high quality-to-price ratio expected to create a third growth curve for Zhenjiu [1].

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Zhenjiu Lidu (06979) has experienced a decline of nearly 5%, currently trading at 8.62 HKD, with a transaction volume of 93.05 million HKD, indicating market concerns regarding the liquor industry performance and company-specific developments [1] Industry Summary - The liquor sales have shown a marginal acceleration about a week before the holiday, but are expected to decline by approximately 20%, aligning with pre-holiday expectations [1] - Factors such as upcoming task volumes, year-end off-season financial pressures, and e-commerce subsidies during the Double Eleven shopping festival are anticipated to exert downward pressure on prices from October to November [1] - Guotai Junan predicts that the sector's financial reports may undergo further adjustments by the third quarter of 2025 [1] Company Summary - Zhenjiu Lidu has launched its new flagship product "Dazhen," which has reportedly achieved a revenue of 370 million CNY, with over 2,800 national alliance merchants signed [1] - Huaxin Securities previously noted that the introduction of "Dazhen" is positioned to complement the Zhen 15 and Zhen 30 series, with a high quality-to-price ratio expected to create a third growth curve for Zhenjiu [1]

Core Viewpoint - The overall white liquor industry is still in an adjustment period, leading to a downward revision of the profit forecast for Zhenjiu Lidu (06979) for 2025-2027 [1] Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.497 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 39.6%, and a net profit of 575 million yuan, down 23.5% [1][2] - The expected revenue for 2025-2027 is revised to 5.978 billion, 6.590 billion, and 7.141 billion yuan, down from previous estimates of 7.328 billion, 8.100 billion, and 8.786 billion yuan [1][5] - The expected net profit for the same period is adjusted to 1.073 billion, 1.294 billion, and 1.700 billion yuan, compared to previous forecasts of 1.525 billion, 1.820 billion, and 2.305 billion yuan [1][5] Sales and Volume Analysis - The company's liquor business revenue for H1 2025 was 2.497 billion yuan, with a volume decrease of 35.58% to 9,125 tons and an average price drop of 6.20% to 273,700 yuan per ton [2] - Revenue by brand showed Zhenjiu, Lidu, Xiangjiao, and Kaikouxiao at 1.492 billion, 611 million, 277 million, and 81 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year declines of 44.80%, 9.40%, 38.73%, and 63.91% [2] Margin and Cost Analysis - The gross margin for H1 2025 improved by 0.28 percentage points to 59.04%, while the net profit margin increased by 4.83 percentage points to 23.02% [4] - The improvement in gross margin is attributed to a higher proportion of Lidu, which has a better margin, and the release of self-owned production capacity, reducing unit costs [4] Strategic Outlook - The company is focusing on mid-to-high-end products and expanding banquet scene channels to drive stable growth in 2025 [5] - The company maintains a "buy" rating despite the overall adjustment in the white liquor industry [1][5]