"如果今天不是好日子，明天一定是。" 8月22日，珍酒李渡发布2025半年报，把过去半年白酒行业的焦虑与希望，一并推上岸。数据显示，上半年珍酒李渡实现营业收入24.97亿元，经调整净利 润6.13亿元。 相较于这些最容易看到的数据，很多人忽略的是：在最卷、最冷、最考验定力的2025，珍酒李渡正开展一系列积极调整，以"弯道超车"作为船锚，一头扎 进行业与消费调整深海，一头系住自己，点亮自己和行业的未来。 一场"慢刹车"里的加速 上半年的数据显示，珍酒李渡既没有"踩油门"，又没有"把脚放在刹车上"。 在行业调整的压力下，珍酒李渡展现出了较强的韧性，实现营业收入 24.97 亿元，经调整净利润 6.13 亿元。相较于部分酒企业绩从 2024 年开始调整，珍 酒李渡调整时间相对延后，这反映出其市场基本盘的稳固。 既"慢"（主动调整），又"快"（良性增长），这种稳定显然是与行业主流名酒企业一致的：近期，茅台等企业密集发布半年报，数据显示企业都从高增长 转向高质量增长新阶段、新趋势。 随着酿酒产能释放、人效比提升、销售费用优化，珍酒李渡上半年毛利率同比提升 0.2 个百分点至 59%，连续 3 年保持增长；经调整净利率与 ...

因时而变：新产品、新模式 珍酒李渡(6979) 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.08.23 [Table_Industry] 食品饮料 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | | [当前价格 Table_CurPrice] (港元)： | 9.86 | 珍酒李渡（6979.HK）2025 年半年报点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 訾猛(分析师) | 021-38676442 | zimeng@gtht.com | S0880513120002 | | | | 颜慧菁(分析师) | 021-23183952 | yanhuijing@gtht.com | S0880525040022 | [当前价格 Table_CurPrice] (港元)： | 9.86 | | 李美仪(分析师) | 021-38038667 | limeiyi@gtht.com | S088052408 ...

报表出清，大珍寻机 消费品/食品饮料 公司发布 25 年半年报，25H1 公司收入/净利润/经调整净利润分别为 25.0 亿元 /5.7 亿元/6.1 亿元，同比-39.6%/-23.5%/-39.8%。25H1 公司报表侧开始出清， 珍酒严控销售节奏维护渠道健康，李渡依托婚宴、升学宴等消费场景逆周期对 冲，毛利率保持稳定，费用短期刚性但后续有望削减，利润率侧预计继续保持。 展望 25H2，大珍新品推出与联盟体形式有望贡献重要增量，后续重点关注公司 价格管理能力，若整体得当，大珍有望成为填补珍 15、珍 30 价格带的重要利 器。考虑到公司面临外部压力，我们下调 25-27 年经调整净利润至 14.1 亿元、 15.4 亿元、18.8 亿元，对应 25 年 21.8 倍 PE，维持"强烈推荐"评级。 强烈推荐（维持） 目标估值：NA 当前股价：9.86 港元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 3389 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 3389 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 33.4 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 33.4 | | 每股净资产（MRQ） | 4.1 | | R ...

业绩简评 2025 年 8 月 22 日公司披露 25 年中期业绩，期内实现营收 24.97 亿元，同比-39.6%；归母净利 5.75 亿元，同比-23.5%；经调整净 利 6.13 亿元，同比-39.8%。 经营分析 分价位来看：25H1 高端/次高端/中端及以下分别实现营收 5.8/9.8/9.4 亿元，同比 -47%/-42%/-31% ，毛利率分别 -2.2/+2.3/+2.7pct；高端价位毛利率回落主要源于内部结构调 整，次高端及以下价位毛利率提升主要源于自产基酒逐步替代+包 材等成本优化+低毛利产品销量下滑致使内部结构优化。 从报表质量看：1）25H1 整体毛利率同比+0.3pct 至 59.0%，销售 及经销开支占比同比+0.4pct 至 22.2%（绝对值同比-38.5%），行 政开支占比同比+3.1pct 至 9.8%（绝对值同比-11.3%）；经调整净 利率-0.1pct 至 24.6%；2）25H1 末应计返利/预收客户款项余额分 别 4.9/14.3 亿元，较 24 年末-1.9/-3.3 亿元。 盈利预测、估值与评级 我们预计公司 25-27 年收入分别-20.4%/+11.7% ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the stock of Zhenjiu Lidu (06979) has increased by over 5%, currently trading at 9.6 HKD with a transaction volume of 172 million HKD, following the announcement from the State Council's ninth plenary session to stimulate consumer potential and remove restrictive measures in the consumption sector [1] Group 2 - The liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, with expectations for Zhenjiu Lidu's revenue in the first half of 2025 to decline by 38.3% to 41.9%, and adjusted net profit to decrease by 39% to 40% [1] - New products such as "Dazhen" and "Niushi Beer" are anticipated to contribute incremental growth and improve marginal growth rates for the company [1] - Zhenjiu Lidu is recognized as a leading sauce-flavored liquor brand on an upward trend, with the new flagship product "Dazhen" expected to significantly enhance performance due to innovative business and marketing strategies [1]

Group 1 - The stock of Zhenjiu Lidu (06979) increased by over 5%, reaching 9.6 HKD with a trading volume of 172 million HKD [1] - The State Council's ninth plenary session emphasized the need to continuously stimulate consumer potential and systematically remove restrictive measures in the consumption sector [1] - Haitong Securities forecasts a significant decline in the white liquor industry, with expected revenue for 25H1 decreasing by 38.3%-41.9% and adjusted net profit dropping by 39%-40% [1] Group 2 - ZheShang Securities views Zhenjiu Lidu as a leading brand in the sauce-flavored liquor sector, with the new product "Dazhen" expected to contribute significantly to performance due to innovative marketing and business models [1] - The new product "Dazhen" is anticipated to become a "phenomenal blockbuster" and drive marginal improvements in growth [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The food and beverage index increased by 0.5% from August 11 to August 15, ranking 18th among 28 sectors, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 1.9 percentage points. The sub-sectors of seasoning and fermented products (+2.2%), baked goods (+1.5%), and health products (+1.3%) performed relatively well [10][12] - The report highlights that the liquor industry remains a core component of the food and beverage sector, with varying performances among companies. Kweichow Moutai showed stable mid-year results, maintaining its strong brand and market position. Other companies like Zhenjiu Lidu experienced a decline but are focusing on product innovation and channel optimization for future recovery [10][11] - The overall liquor industry is in an adjustment phase, with expectations for a fundamental low point to appear in the second half of the year. Some quality liquor companies are seen to have a high safety margin from a valuation perspective, suggesting opportunities for low-position investments in the second half [10][11] - The beer sector is facing pressure due to intensified market competition and product downgrading, although companies like Zhujiang Beer and Yanjing U8 are performing well in their respective regions. China Resources Beer, as a leading player, is expected to benefit from industry recovery in the long term [11] - The snack food sector is showing strong growth potential, with new consumption-related companies likely to become market leaders again in the second half of the year. Recommended companies for investment include Salted Fish Pulp, Ximai Food, Dongpeng Beverage, and Wancheng Group, with notable beneficiaries being Weilong Delicious [10][11] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The food and beverage index increased by 0.5%, ranking 18th out of 28 sectors, and underperformed the CSI 300 by about 1.9 percentage points. The leading sub-sectors were seasoning and fermented products (+2.2%), baked goods (+1.5%), and health products (+1.3%) [10][12] Upstream Data - On August 5, the GDT auction price for whole milk powder was $4,012 per ton, a year-on-year increase of 23.1%. However, domestic fresh milk prices were 3.0 yuan per kilogram, down 5.9% year-on-year [14][16] Liquor Industry News - Kweichow Moutai announced an investment of approximately 774 million yuan for infrastructure improvements. Additionally, Shede Liquor is set to launch a new low-alcohol product, "Shede Zizai," on August 30, focusing on high flavor and low alcohol content [37][38] Recommended Companies - Recommended companies for investment include Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Ximai Food, Wancheng Group, and Bai Run Co. [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights optimism for the liquor sector, particularly for premium brands like Moutai and Wuliangye, and suggests focusing on three main lines: leading brands, high-certainty regional wines, and elastic stocks benefiting from recovery [1][2]. - In the beverage segment, companies like Master Kong and Angel Yeast are noted for their strong profit growth, while Chongqing Beer shows stable volume but slight price declines [3][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of innovative product strategies and market positioning for companies to capture emerging market opportunities [2][3]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - Moutai's H1 2025 revenue reached 91.094 billion yuan, up 9.16% year-on-year, with a net profit of 45.403 billion yuan, up 8.89% [2]. - The introduction of new products, such as the competitively priced "Dazhen" by Zhenjiu Li Du, is expected to drive sales growth and improve the company's fundamentals [2]. Beer and Beverage Sector - Chongqing Beer reported H1 2025 revenue of 4.48 billion yuan, down 1.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of 390 million yuan, down 12.7% [3]. - Master Kong's H1 2025 revenue was 40.09 billion yuan, down 2.7%, but net profit increased by 20.5% [3][8]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong growth potential and those benefiting from policy improvements or recovery [1][3]. Growth Opportunities - The report identifies high-growth companies such as Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer as key players to watch in the beer segment [3]. - In the snack sector, companies like Wei Long and Sanhua are highlighted for their impressive revenue growth, with Wei Long's H1 2025 revenue increasing by 18.5% to 3.48 billion yuan [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company is expected to experience a reversal in its performance, with the new product "Dazhen" potentially becoming a significant growth driver, leading to a mid-term revenue target of 6 billion [2][4] - The company anticipates a 39%-40% decline in adjusted net profit for the first half of 2025, which is viewed as the low point of the current adjustment period, with expectations for performance improvement in 2026 [5][10] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is positioned as a leading producer of sauce-flavored liquor, with a focus on innovative marketing and product strategies to drive growth [1] Product Innovation - "Dazhen" is designed to compete with top-tier products like Feitian Moutai, featuring minimalist packaging and strong brand recognition [2][3] Marketing Strategy - The marketing approach includes scenario-based marketing, short video promotions, and leveraging cultural heritage through celebrity endorsements [3][4] Financial Projections - Revenue for 2025 is projected to decline by 28.94%, with a recovery expected in 2026 at a growth rate of 29.51% [11] - The company forecasts a net profit decline of 21.35% in 2025, followed by a rebound of 43.03% in 2026 [11] Market Position - The company aims to establish "Dazhen" as a new consumption product in the liquor market, with significant growth potential and a unique distribution model [2][4]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Zhenjiu Lidu, has seen its stock price increase by over 4% despite a significant decline in its expected revenue and profit for the first half of the year [1]. Financial Performance - Zhenjiu Lidu forecasts revenue between 2.4 billion to 2.55 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 38.3% to 41.9% [1]. - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decrease by 23% to 24% year-on-year [1]. - Adjusted net profit is anticipated to decline by 39% to 40% year-on-year [1]. Market Response - The stock price of Zhenjiu Lidu rose by 4.34%, reaching 7.46 HKD, with a trading volume of 52.5693 million HKD [1]. - CICC noted that the company's earnings forecast is slightly below expectations, primarily due to further sales pressure on products in the second quarter [1]. Product Strategy - Zhenjiu Lidu launched a strategic new product called "Dazhen" in June, which has seen successful recruitment of distributors [1]. - The success of "Dazhen" is attributed to its small distributor quotas, low capital requirements, substantial channel profits, and aggressive marketing efforts, attracting both industry and non-industry clients [1]. - The company is implementing multiple strategies to adapt to industry changes, with expectations of improvement in the second half of the year driven by new product contributions [1].