1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Neutral [9] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [9] - Aluminum alloy: Neutral [9] - Arbitrage: Neutral [9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapid rise in aluminum prices may suppress consumption and create a short - term negative feedback loop. Although the short - term fundamentals show limited positive signs, macro - factors will drive long - term price increases [6]. - The spot price of alumina is slightly declining, with weakening market sentiment. The cost support is weakening, the supply is in surplus, and there is no strong support for price increases [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Important Data Aluminum Spot - On January 15, 2026, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 24,190 yuan/ton, a change of - 480 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount was - 130 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - The price of Central Plains A00 aluminum was 24,030 yuan/ton, with the spot premium/discount changing - 50 yuan/ton to - 290 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 24,220 yuan/ton, a change of - 470 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The aluminum spot premium/discount changed - 40 yuan/ton to - 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. Aluminum Futures - On January 15, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 24,610 yuan/ton, closed at 24,375 yuan/ton, a change of - 370 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 24,780 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 24,065 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 766,880 lots, and the holding volume was 346,831 lots [2]. Inventory - As of January 15, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 736,000 tons, a change of 6,000 tons from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 138,083 tons, a change of 4,518 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 490,000 tons, a change of - 2,000 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On January 15, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,625 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,575 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,655 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,735 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,775 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 310 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On January 15, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,804 yuan/ton, closed at 2,789 yuan/ton, a change of - 6 yuan/ton or - 0.21% from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price was 2,817 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 2,761 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 618,962 lots, and the holding volume was 508,785 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On January 15, 2026, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 17,600 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 17,900 yuan/ton, with a price change of - 400 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation for ADC12 was 23,600 yuan/ton, with a price change of - 200 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 69,300 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 60,200 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 23,119 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 481 yuan/ton [5] Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - The price of Shanghai aluminum is fluctuating at a high level, suppressing consumption and potentially creating a short - term negative feedback. The current stockpiling speed is fast due to the late Spring Festival this year, and it is difficult for prices to decline in the short term. However, macro - factors are the main drivers for long - term price increases [6]. Alumina - The spot market price is slightly declining, the market sentiment is weakening, and the basis is narrowing. The cost support is weakening, and the supply is in surplus, with the possibility of inventory over - capacity in the future [7][8] Strategy - Unilateral trading: Aluminum - neutral; Alumina - cautiously bearish; Aluminum alloy - neutral [9] - Arbitrage: Neutral [9]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Unilateral: Aluminum: Neutral; Alumina: Cautiously bearish; Aluminum alloy: Neutral. Arbitrage: Neutral [9] Group 2: Core Views - The high-level fluctuations of Shanghai aluminum prices have increased, starting to suppress consumption. Although it is the off-season for consumption, the current inventory accumulation speed is fast, and it is difficult to transmit prices downward in the short term. However, the macro situation remains the long - term driving force for price increases, while short - term large fluctuations due to capital disturbances need to be watched out for [6] - The procurement price of alumina in the spot market is still slightly declining. The cost of bauxite is under pressure, the supply is in excess, the social inventory is increasing, and there is little support for the absolute price to rise [7][8] Group 3: Key Data Summary Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 24,670 yuan/ton, up 370 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium is - 80 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Central China A00 aluminum price is 24,510 yuan/ton, and the spot premium is - 240 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Foshan A00 aluminum price is 24,690 yuan/ton, up 380 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the aluminum spot premium is - 60 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] Aluminum Futures - On January 14, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 24,500 yuan/ton, closed at 24,595 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a maximum price of 25,005 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 24,465 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 777,707 lots, and the open interest was 368,960 lots [2] Inventory - As of January 14, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 730,000 tons, up 16,000 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory was 133,565 tons, up 32,803 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 492,000 tons, down 2,000 tons from the previous trading day [2] Alumina Spot Price - On January 14, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,625 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,575 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,655 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,735 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,775 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 310 US dollars/ton [2] Alumina Futures - On January 14, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,780 yuan/ton, closed at 2,800 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a change of - 0.28%, with a maximum price of 2,827 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 2,770 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 691,294 lots, and the open interest was 518,021 lots [2] Aluminum Alloy Price - On January 14, 2026, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 18,000 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 18,300 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation for ADC12 was 23,700 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [3] Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 68,200 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 64,500 tons [4] Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 22,988 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 312 yuan/ton [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminium: Neutral [9] - Alumina: Cautiously Bearish [9] - Aluminium Alloy: Neutral [9] - Arbitrage: Neutral [9] 2. Core Viewpoints - The high - level volatility of Shanghai aluminium prices has increased, suppressing consumption. Although it's the off - season, the rapid inventory accumulation due to the late Spring Festival makes short - term price downward transmission difficult. Macro factors are the long - term driving force for price increase, but short - term large fluctuations caused by capital need to be watched out [6]. - In the alumina market, the electrolytic aluminium procurement price in the spot market is still falling slightly, the cost of bauxite is under pressure, the supply is in surplus, and the social inventory is increasing. Although there is a large amount of capital inflow, there is no support for the absolute price increase [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Aluminium Price and Inventory - **Spot Aluminium**: On January 13, 2026, the price of East China A00 aluminium was 24,300 yuan/ton, with a change of - 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount of East China aluminium was - 60 yuan/ton, with a change of 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. Similar price and premium/discount data were also provided for Central China and Foshan [1]. - **Futures Aluminium**: On January 13, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminium opened at 24,750 yuan/ton, closed at 24,375 yuan/ton, with a change of - 210 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 825,553 lots, and the position was 370,981 lots [2]. - **Inventory**: As of January 13, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminium ingots was 730,000 tons, with a change of 16,000 tons compared to the previous period. The warrant inventory was 100,762 tons, with a change of 3,349 tons compared to the previous trading day. The LME aluminium inventory was 494,000 tons, with a change of - 1,825 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]. 3.2 Alumina Price and Inventory - **Spot Alumina**: On January 13, 2026, the SMM alumina prices in Shanxi, Shandong, Henan, Guangxi, Guizhou were 2,630 yuan/ton, 2,580 yuan/ton, 2,660 yuan/ton, 2,735 yuan/ton, 2,775 yuan/ton respectively. The Australian alumina FOB price was 310 US dollars/ton [2]. - **Futures Alumina**: On January 13, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,869 yuan/ton, closed at 2,780 yuan/ton, with a change of - 59 yuan/ton (- 2.08%) compared to the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 964,869 lots, and the position was 553,364 lots [2]. 3.3 Aluminium Alloy Price, Inventory, Cost and Profit - **Price**: On January 13, 2026, the procurement prices of Baotai civil raw aluminium and mechanical raw aluminium were 18,000 yuan/ton and 18,300 yuan/ton respectively, with no change compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 23,500 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day [3]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminium alloy was 68,200 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 64,500 tons [4]. - **Cost and Profit**: The theoretical total cost was 22,988 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 312 yuan/ton [5].