Key Points - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the current state of aluminum and alumina prices, market trends, and inventory levels, indicating a bearish sentiment in the short term for aluminum and alumina markets [7][17]. Group 1: Aluminum Market Data - As of January 15, 2026, the A00 aluminum price in East China is reported at 24,190 CNY/ton, a decrease of 480 CNY/ton from the previous trading day [2][12]. - The main aluminum futures contract opened at 24,610 CNY/ton and closed at 24,375 CNY/ton, with a trading volume of 766,880 contracts [2][12]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory stands at 736,000 tons, with a slight increase of 600 tons from the previous period [2][12]. Group 2: Alumina Market Data - On January 15, 2026, alumina prices in various regions are as follows: Shanxi at 2,625 CNY/ton, Shandong at 2,575 CNY/ton, and Guangxi at 2,735 CNY/ton [3][13]. - The main alumina futures contract opened at 2,804 CNY/ton and closed at 2,789 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 6 CNY/ton [3][13]. Group 3: Aluminum Alloy Market Data - The procurement price for civilian aluminum is 17,600 CNY/ton, while the mechanical aluminum price is 17,900 CNY/ton, both showing a decrease of 400 CNY/ton from the previous day [4][14]. - The total theoretical cost for aluminum alloy production is 23,119 CNY/ton, with a theoretical profit of 481 CNY/ton [6][16]. Group 4: Market Analysis - The aluminum market is experiencing high volatility, which is beginning to suppress consumption, leading to potential short-term negative feedback on prices [7][17]. - The alumina market is seeing a slight decline in prices, with an oversupply situation persisting, indicating limited upward price support in the near term [7][17]. Group 5: Strategy - The current market strategy is neutral for aluminum, cautiously bearish for alumina, and neutral for aluminum alloys [8][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminium: Neutral [9] - Alumina: Cautiously Bearish [9] - Aluminium Alloy: Neutral [9] - Arbitrage: Neutral [9] 2. Core Viewpoints - The high - level volatility of Shanghai aluminium prices has increased, suppressing consumption. Although it's the off - season, the rapid inventory accumulation due to the late Spring Festival makes short - term price downward transmission difficult. Macro factors are the long - term driving force for price increase, but short - term large fluctuations caused by capital need to be watched out [6]. - In the alumina market, the electrolytic aluminium procurement price in the spot market is still falling slightly, the cost of bauxite is under pressure, the supply is in surplus, and the social inventory is increasing. Although there is a large amount of capital inflow, there is no support for the absolute price increase [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Aluminium Price and Inventory - **Spot Aluminium**: On January 13, 2026, the price of East China A00 aluminium was 24,300 yuan/ton, with a change of - 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount of East China aluminium was - 60 yuan/ton, with a change of 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. Similar price and premium/discount data were also provided for Central China and Foshan [1]. - **Futures Aluminium**: On January 13, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminium opened at 24,750 yuan/ton, closed at 24,375 yuan/ton, with a change of - 210 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 825,553 lots, and the position was 370,981 lots [2]. - **Inventory**: As of January 13, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminium ingots was 730,000 tons, with a change of 16,000 tons compared to the previous period. The warrant inventory was 100,762 tons, with a change of 3,349 tons compared to the previous trading day. The LME aluminium inventory was 494,000 tons, with a change of - 1,825 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]. 3.2 Alumina Price and Inventory - **Spot Alumina**: On January 13, 2026, the SMM alumina prices in Shanxi, Shandong, Henan, Guangxi, Guizhou were 2,630 yuan/ton, 2,580 yuan/ton, 2,660 yuan/ton, 2,735 yuan/ton, 2,775 yuan/ton respectively. The Australian alumina FOB price was 310 US dollars/ton [2]. - **Futures Alumina**: On January 13, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,869 yuan/ton, closed at 2,780 yuan/ton, with a change of - 59 yuan/ton (- 2.08%) compared to the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 964,869 lots, and the position was 553,364 lots [2]. 3.3 Aluminium Alloy Price, Inventory, Cost and Profit - **Price**: On January 13, 2026, the procurement prices of Baotai civil raw aluminium and mechanical raw aluminium were 18,000 yuan/ton and 18,300 yuan/ton respectively, with no change compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 23,500 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day [3]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminium alloy was 68,200 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 64,500 tons [4]. - **Cost and Profit**: The theoretical total cost was 22,988 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 312 yuan/ton [5].