Macroeconomic Insights - The US GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 increased significantly to 3% due to a rebound in personal consumption income and expenditure, with disposable income rising by 4.3% year-on-year and expenditure by 4.75%[8] - The core PCE price index showed a year-on-year increase of 2.79% in June, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[8] - The US non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs in July, with significant downward revisions to previous months' data, raising concerns about the labor market's strength[23] Market Trends - Major global stock indices experienced declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.9%, Nikkei 225 down 1.6%, S&P 500 down 2.4%, and Hang Seng Index down 3.5%[7] - Commodity prices showed mixed results, with IPE Brent crude oil futures up 1.7% and COMEX copper down 20.2% due to policy impacts[7] - The dollar index rose by 1% over the week, reflecting a recovery after a rapid decline[7] Investment Strategies - The report emphasizes a focus on long-term investment opportunities in low-inflation environments, particularly in bond assets and high-dividend equities[20] - The ongoing transformation of the Chinese economy is expected to create new investment opportunities, especially in technology and new consumption sectors[42] - The report suggests that the decline in risk-free rates, with long-term government bond yields falling below 2%, will further enhance the attractiveness of equities over fixed-income products[44]

Group 1: Macro Framework Changes - Since 2018, global macro factors have been changing, leading to a restructuring of the global economic system and a trend towards decoupling due to declining trust among nations[14][15]. - The monetary system is also undergoing reconstruction, with a shift in the pricing framework for assets like gold, the US dollar, and US Treasuries due to changes in trust and credit[17][21]. - The global economic system's integration has been challenged, as countries prioritize supply chain security over purely economic factors, leading to a gradual decline in direct economic links between major trading nations[16][20]. Group 2: Domestic Macro Framework Shifts - China's macro policy has shifted towards emphasizing high-quality growth and new development concepts, moving away from aggressive stimulus measures seen in the past[25][27]. - The real estate market in China has faced downward pressure since 2018, impacting the economy, financial systems, and asset pricing significantly[28][30]. - The change in the real estate cycle has led to a decline in interest rates, marking the beginning of a long-term bull market for bonds in China[28][31]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - In a low-inflation environment, long-term attention should be given to bond assets and high-dividend equity assets[31]. - Opportunities in export and overseas competition sectors remain promising, particularly for companies with stable demand and strong supply capabilities developed over decades[31]. - New consumption trends, such as value-for-money and emotional value consumption, present long-term investment opportunities[31].