这个大会召开前，政策已经"沉默"了很久，偶尔的政策出台，也多是修修补补，不痛不痒，对托起市场 行情作用不大。很多人在等下半年的第一大会，期待值拉得很高。 但结果并不如预期，大家等的终究是没等来，短期内大概率也不会来！ 政策底线表现的清清楚楚，明明白白，不可能再大起，也不接受大落，老老实实的待着，做好自己的事 情。 传言的棚改2.0没来，也不会再来了； 小作文炒作的现房销售也没来，全面铺开的影响太大了，谁也不敢出这个头，地方上谁愿意怎么推，就 怎么推，愿意怎么试，就怎么试； 无论是棚改2.0，还是现房销售，传言的目的本质上无异，都是外部在搞预期，通过空穴来风的内容来 扰乱咱们的预期，把预期值先拉上去，谣言起的那一刻，股市先动一动。等会议结束，如果出来的内容 跟提前被拉起来的预期不符，股市又得震一震，老套路，老把戏，不听不看不管，也罢。 LPR在5月下调后，连续2个月按兵不动，还要看市场反馈和大老美的动作； 限制性的政策，比如限售、限购，偶尔放一放，并不会激起太多水花，地方上还是保持谨慎…… 政策已经前置发力，上半年成绩不错 3月两会《政府工作报告》上已经提到"出台实施政策要能早则早、宁早勿晚，与各种不确定性抢时 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market has been experiencing accelerated adjustments since April 2023, a trend expected to continue into 2024, with average second-hand housing prices in 100 cities dropping for 22 consecutive months [1] - Five major transformations are anticipated in the Chinese real estate market in 2024, significantly impacting its structure and dynamics [8] Group 1: Major Transformations - Transformation Five: A new wave of demolition targeting urban villages and prefabricated houses is expected in 2024, driven by safety concerns due to aging structures [1] - Transformation Four: The construction of affordable housing is set to accelerate, with a government plan to build 6 million units over the next five years, shifting focus from the commodity housing market to providing housing security for low-income groups [3] - Transformation Three: The trend of selling properties as completed units is expected to rise, as calls to abolish the pre-sale system grow due to debt defaults and unfinished projects by major developers [3] Group 2: Market Trends - Transformation Two: Housing prices in first-tier cities are likely to continue declining, with significant drops observed in core areas, such as a 30-40% decrease in central Shanghai prices compared to 2021 peaks [5] - Transformation One: Government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market are expected to intensify, including potential further relaxations of purchase restrictions and reductions in mortgage rates below 4% [7]