房地产行业 | 策 | 投 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 略 | 资 | | | | | | 报 | 策 | | | | | | 告 | 略 | | | | | | 房地产行业 | | | | | | | 房地产（标配，维持） | 中央城市工作会议召开，行业或迎来发展新格局 | 行 | 行 | | | | 业 | 业 | | | | | | 房地产行业专题报告 | 研 | 研 | | | | | 究 | | | | | | | 2025 | 年 | 08 | 月 | 25 | 日 | | 究 | | | | | | | 投资要点： | | | | | | | 时隔十年再次召开会议 | 意义及影响深远。2025年中央城市工作会议 | 推荐 |  | 指明方向后，未来房地产行业发展将"以推进城市更新为重要抓手"， | | | 分析师：何敏仪 | 以"加快构建房地产发展新模式"作为核心任务。后续城市更新、 | SAC | 执业证书编号： | | | | 老旧小区改造等将加速推进，同时房地产企业改变发展模式，行业 | S0340513040001 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant shift in the housing market towards a model where 60% of families in major cities may no longer rely on commercial housing, driven by new rental regulations and a focus on affordable housing [1][2][8] Group 2 - The newly implemented Housing Rental Regulations prioritize tenant rights, mandating measures such as the establishment of regulated rental fund accounts and restrictions on arbitrary rent increases, thereby enhancing tenant protection [2] - Local governments are responding with supportive policies, such as relaxing restrictions on second-hand housing sales and prioritizing families with limited living space for affordable housing [2][8] Group 3 - The housing market faces significant challenges, including high property prices that make homeownership unattainable for many families, with examples like Shanghai's average new home price reaching 72,000 yuan per square meter [3] - A slowdown in urbanization is evident, with the urbanization rate projected at 67% in 2024, marking the lowest growth in a decade, which directly impacts housing demand [6] - An oversupply of housing is apparent, with a national inventory turnover period of 18 months for commercial housing, leading to government interventions such as converting unsold properties into affordable housing [7] Group 4 - The housing system in China is evolving towards a dual-track model similar to Singapore's, where high-income groups purchase commercial housing while low-income groups rely on affordable housing, aiming for 60% of families to be included in this non-commercial housing system [8] - Various cities are implementing long-term strategies to ensure that a significant portion of the population benefits from affordable housing, with projections indicating that by 2026, affordable housing will cover 18% of the urban population [8] Group 5 - Different strategies are recommended for various groups in response to the changing market dynamics, such as multi-property owners adjusting their portfolios and first-time buyers considering affordable housing options [10] - The article emphasizes the need for market participants to recognize the implications of these trends, as the commercial housing market may become a niche for a minority, raising questions about the value of existing property ownership [10]

Core Insights - Despite multiple rounds of market rescue policies in 2024, including relaxed purchase restrictions and lower interest rates, the effectiveness of these policies has shown significant divergence across different cities [1][3] - In first-tier cities like Shenzhen and Guangzhou, the market response has been tepid, while third and fourth-tier cities continue to struggle with severe inventory issues, making it difficult for policies to reverse the downturn [1][3] - The real estate market is transitioning from "incremental expansion" to "stock optimization," indicating a need for systemic reforms rather than singular stimulus measures [7] Market Conditions - As of May 2025, the national second-hand housing listing volume reached 7.53 million units, with prices declining by 0.71% month-on-month and 7.24% year-on-year, surpassing the decline in new housing prices [4] - The average rental yield has decreased to 2.0% nationally, with some cities reporting yields below 1.5%, leading to a significant reduction in investment purchases [6] - The supply of affordable housing in Shenzhen is set to reach 50,000 units in 2025, priced at 30-60% of market rates, which is expected to divert demand from middle-income buyers [3] Developer Challenges - The top 100 real estate companies experienced an 11.8% year-on-year decline in sales in the first half of 2025, with private enterprises' land acquisition share plummeting from 62% to 6%, indicating a shift towards state-owned enterprises [3] - Developers are facing ongoing liquidity issues, with major firms like Emperor International and New World Development defaulting on debts, leading to project delays and a loss of consumer trust [1][3] Policy Recommendations - Optimize supply structure by accelerating the implementation of quality housing standards and promoting the sale of existing homes and green buildings [8] - Address developer risks by expanding financing coordination mechanisms to support debt restructuring and project revitalization [8] - Activate demand through targeted measures for first-time buyers in core cities, such as tax incentives and increased public housing fund limits [8] - Implement differentiated regional policies to enhance land supply and infrastructure investment in inflow cities while addressing inventory in outflow cities through industrial integration and urban renewal [8]

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market has been experiencing accelerated adjustments since April 2023, a trend expected to continue into 2024, with average second-hand housing prices in 100 cities dropping for 22 consecutive months [1] - Five major transformations are anticipated in the Chinese real estate market in 2024, significantly impacting its structure and dynamics [8] Group 1: Major Transformations - Transformation Five: A new wave of demolition targeting urban villages and prefabricated houses is expected in 2024, driven by safety concerns due to aging structures [1] - Transformation Four: The construction of affordable housing is set to accelerate, with a government plan to build 6 million units over the next five years, shifting focus from the commodity housing market to providing housing security for low-income groups [3] - Transformation Three: The trend of selling properties as completed units is expected to rise, as calls to abolish the pre-sale system grow due to debt defaults and unfinished projects by major developers [3] Group 2: Market Trends - Transformation Two: Housing prices in first-tier cities are likely to continue declining, with significant drops observed in core areas, such as a 30-40% decrease in central Shanghai prices compared to 2021 peaks [5] - Transformation One: Government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market are expected to intensify, including potential further relaxations of purchase restrictions and reductions in mortgage rates below 4% [7]

Core Insights - The article discusses the current state and future trends of the real estate market in China, highlighting the significant number of buildings and the implications for housing demand and investment opportunities [2][4][6]. Group 1: Current Market Overview - There are approximately 6 billion buildings in China, with a population density of about 2.3 people per building, which is a rare phenomenon globally [2]. - The total number of buildings includes various types such as residential, commercial, and public structures, indicating a diverse real estate landscape [2]. - Despite the large number of buildings, there is a concentration in less populated areas, leading to tight housing conditions in first-tier cities [6]. Group 2: Future Trends - Economic predictions suggest that only 20% of cities, developers, and properties will be worth investing in, while the rest will primarily serve residential purposes [8]. - Population and price differentiation in cities is expected to continue, with cities like Tokyo and Seoul experiencing rising prices due to sustained population influx [8][10]. - In the short term, there will be downward pressure on housing prices in third and fourth-tier cities, leading to reduced new project developments and increased population outflow [12]. Group 3: Recommendations for Different Stakeholders - For first-time homebuyers, it is advised to focus on personal needs and financial capabilities rather than market trends, prioritizing properties in core areas with better amenities [14]. - Investors are encouraged to change strategies, moving away from speculation and focusing on the rental market, as younger generations may prefer renting over buying [15]. - Home sellers should monitor policy changes and market conditions, considering renting out properties in prime locations instead of selling impulsively [16]. Group 4: Conclusion - The future of real estate is expected to shift towards a focus on residential attributes, moving away from speculative investments, and emphasizing the importance of making informed decisions based on personal needs and financial situations [18].

Group 1 - The overall trend of the real estate market is expected to stabilize by 2025, with a focus on "stopping the decline and stabilizing" rather than allowing significant price increases [3][4] - Short-term fluctuations in the market are normal and do not alter the main trajectory of the real estate sector [1][3] - The government is likely to continue implementing policies aimed at stabilizing the market, with expectations that over 95% of cities will lift or significantly relax restrictive purchasing policies by the end of 2025 [6][8] Group 2 - The real estate market is showing signs of improvement, with May data indicating positive year-on-year changes, although month-on-month fluctuations remain [4][6] - The competition among real estate companies is intensifying, leading to increased industry concentration, while some companies are expected to recover their credit ratings due to supportive financial policies [8] - There is a growing enthusiasm among developers to acquire land, with major cities launching quality residential land parcels to stimulate market activity [8][10]

Core Insights - The recent draft policy on affordable housing in Shenzhen has caused significant concern among property owners, as it prohibits the conversion of certain types of affordable housing into commercial properties, marking a shift from previous regulations [1][4][5] Group 1: Housing Market Dynamics - The new policy categorizes affordable housing into three types: public rental housing for low-income individuals, guaranteed rental housing for young workers, and shared ownership housing for those with general needs. The key change is that shared ownership housing cannot be converted into commercial properties [1] - The current housing market is experiencing a significant decline in prices, with examples such as properties near subway stations in Zhengzhou dropping to around 2000 yuan per square meter, while the price of shared ownership housing remains around 6000 yuan per square meter [7][9] - There is a notable mismatch between the supply of affordable housing and market demand, with a reported shortfall of 14.07 million units against a total affordable housing stock of only 5% of the total housing supply in 2022 [7] Group 2: Rising Costs of Homeownership - Homeownership costs are increasing due to three main factors: rising property management fees, escalating housing pension costs, and the potential introduction of property taxes [11][14][16] - Property management fees in first- and second-tier cities are projected to reach 2.5-3 yuan per square meter by 2025, reflecting a 250%-300% increase since 2000 [11][12] - The housing pension scheme, which combines personal and public accounts, is expected to add significant costs for homeowners, with examples showing annual contributions of around 1200 yuan for an 80 square meter apartment [14] - The anticipated property tax could further increase the cost of homeownership, with estimates suggesting that homeowners may face annual taxes equivalent to a significant portion of their income [16] Group 3: Future Market Considerations - The trend indicates that a significant portion of the population may face a situation where they can afford to buy homes but cannot afford to maintain them, leading to a "buying but not living" scenario [5][9] - Homebuyers are advised to avoid older properties without advantageous locations or amenities, as these may continue to depreciate in value [18] - It is recommended that potential homeowners consider the long-term costs associated with property ownership, including management fees, pensions, and taxes, to avoid financial strain [19][21]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in discussions around affordable housing is attributed to the ongoing downturn in the real estate market, leading to heightened sensitivity among stakeholders regarding any negative news [1][3]. Group 1: Affordable Housing Policies - Shenzhen's new affordable housing policy has caused significant concern among property owners, reminiscent of the initial reactions to the housing pension policy [3]. - The supply of affordable housing is expected to increase, with Shenzhen planning to add 48,500 rental units in 2024, which will likely divert demand from the home-buying market due to lower rental prices [4]. - The current affordable housing stock in China is only 5% of the total housing supply, while the demand gap is estimated at 14.07 million units [3][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Price Trends - In Zhengzhou, property prices have plummeted to 2,000-3,000 yuan per square meter for older homes, while the price of newly allocated affordable housing remains significantly higher [4]. - The phenomenon of older properties being priced out by affordable housing is evident, with some properties seeing price drops from 800,000 yuan to 350,000 yuan without any buyers [4]. - The average rental price for affordable housing in Shenzhen is projected to be 36.18 yuan per square meter, compared to over 60 yuan for surrounding market-rate properties, indicating a significant price disparity [9]. Group 3: Cost Challenges in Real Estate - The rising costs associated with property ownership, including maintenance fees, are becoming a critical issue, with property management fees expected to reach 2.5-3 yuan per square meter by 2025, a 250%-300% increase since 2000 [5][6]. - The housing pension system, which includes contributions from homeowners, adds an additional financial burden, with an example showing a potential total cost of 36,000 yuan over 30 years for an 80 square meter unit [8]. - The introduction of property taxes, which will replace some land finance, is expected to increase the overall cost of homeownership, with potential annual taxes on second homes reaching 40,000 yuan for properties valued at 5 million yuan [9]. Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - Investors are advised to avoid older properties, particularly those over 20 years old without school district advantages, as they may face similar declines as seen in Zhengzhou [10]. - Monitoring affordable housing policies is crucial, as qualifying for such housing can significantly reduce living costs, though potential ownership and transaction restrictions should be considered [10]. - Setting aside a maintenance fund equivalent to 1% of property value annually is recommended to mitigate the risk of "buying but not being able to afford to live" [10].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry has entered a critical phase of inventory reduction, with a pressing need to activate existing land resources as the market stabilizes in 2025. The central government has emphasized accelerating the collection of idle land through special bonds, granting local governments autonomy in pricing and usage [3][8]. Group 1: Inventory Status - The industry is in a deep inventory reduction phase, with the broad inventory scale in typical cities reaching 3.2 times that of the narrow inventory, and the broad digestion cycle generally exceeding 5 years [3][4]. - The narrow inventory has decreased by approximately 9% since its peak in September 2024, but the broad inventory remains high, with a slight increase of 0.7% due to the sale of quality land [9][10]. - The total area of proposed land for collection has reached 6,565 hectares, which could lead to a 54% increase in new home sales in the first four months of 2025 [4][35]. Group 2: City-Level Inventory Disparities - Significant disparities exist in potential inventory across cities, with Chongqing, Zhengzhou, and Shenyang facing urgent challenges in land collection, as their potential inventory exceeds 1,000 hectares [4][20]. - High inventory cities like Chongqing and Zhengzhou have over 70% of undeveloped land, necessitating accelerated collection efforts and exploration of converting ongoing projects into affordable housing [4][23]. - Cities with lower inventory pressures, such as Beijing and Hefei, have a potential digestion cycle of only 1 year, indicating a healthier supply-demand relationship [20][37]. Group 3: Collection Strategies and Challenges - The collection of idle land is primarily focused on third- and fourth-tier cities, with 84% of the proposed collection area concentrated in these regions [5][39]. - The collection plans are expected to significantly reduce the broad inventory digestion cycle in cities like Zhengzhou and Kunming by over 1 year [6][39]. - The implementation of special bonds for land collection needs to accelerate, with a focus on transparency and precise identification of inventory pressure in different city sectors to enhance targeted policies [6][37]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The real estate industry is at a pivotal point for inventory management, with the rapid implementation of special bond collection policies and deepening supply-demand reforms contributing to market stabilization [36][44]. - The core challenge remains the high level of broad inventory, with the special bond collection serving as a key tool to address this issue [37][38]. - Continuous efforts are required to expand the scope of land collection in high-inventory cities, while also focusing on high-traffic areas to restore market health [39][40].

Economic Performance - The overall performance of the domestic economy is good, with GDP reaching 50.28 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.3% at constant prices [1] - The per capita disposable income of residents in the first quarter was 12,179 yuan, showing a nominal growth of 5.5% year-on-year, and a real growth of 5.6% after adjusting for price factors [1] Trends in Banking and Savings - Deposit interest rates are decreasing, with the three-year deposit rate dropping from over 3% to below 2% since 2023, indicating a trend of lower savings for depositors [3] - It is recommended that depositors choose joint-stock banks for higher interest rates compared to state-owned banks, while ensuring better safety than village and commercial banks [3] Real Estate Market - The pace of affordable housing entering the market is accelerating to meet the needs of low-income families, with a plan to launch 6 million affordable housing units over five years, averaging 1.2 million units per year [7] - The introduction of affordable housing is expected to divert demand from the commodity housing market, potentially accelerating the decline in housing prices [7] Marriage Trends - The marriage rate has been declining, with 1.81 million couples registering in the first quarter of 2025, a decrease of 159,000 compared to the same period last year [9] - New regulations simplifying the marriage registration process are expected to lead to a rebound in marriage rates in the second half of the year [10] Artificial Intelligence Integration - AI is increasingly becoming part of daily life, with applications in various sectors such as autonomous delivery and customer service [13] - The integration of AI in industries is anticipated to replace many traditional jobs, while also creating new management positions, highlighting the need for workforce adaptation to AI technologies [13]