新能源产业内卷
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川财证券陈雳:“十五五”科技仍是推动新能源产业发展的核心动力
Zhong Guo Jing Ying Bao· 2025-11-19 12:20
Core Insights - The development of the new energy industry is undergoing a cyclical change, transitioning from explosive growth to high-quality development, with "involution" being a necessary phase in this maturation process [1][2] - The current internal adjustments in the new energy sector are driven by deep market factors rather than just supply-side structural reforms, necessitating improved cost control and technological innovation among companies [1] - The global trade environment for new energy has significantly changed, requiring companies to rethink their international strategies and ensure compliance with market-specific environmental standards while maintaining technological leadership [1][2] Industry Analysis - The new energy industry is experiencing a shift from quantity to quality, indicating a maturation phase characterized by overcapacity and price competition [1] - Continuous technological innovation, such as advancements in lithium batteries, solid-state batteries, and thorium molten salt reactors, is essential for the vitality of the new energy sector [1][2] - Companies are advised to focus on their strengths, avoid overcrowded markets, and integrate digital and AI elements into their new energy products before pursuing international expansion [2] Future Outlook - The core driving force for the new energy industry will remain technology, with emerging growth points in thorium molten salt reactors, solid-state battery technology, and decreasing hydrogen energy costs [2] - The future competitiveness of new energy companies will depend on breakthroughs in technology, the expansion of downstream application scenarios, and the formulation of development plans tailored to their unique characteristics [2] - There is a need for more scientific planning in the new energy sector to avoid redundant construction and resource waste, particularly in regions lacking a solid foundation for new energy development [2]
常州新能源产值临近万亿,产业如何反内卷跃迁?
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-09-15 09:44
Core Insights - The latest data from Changzhou's statistics bureau indicates that from January to July this year, the output value of the power and energy storage battery, new electric power equipment, and new energy vehicle manufacturing industries grew by 14.9%, 7.2%, and 4.8% respectively [1] - Overall, the output value of Changzhou's large-scale enterprises in the new energy sector reached 507.7 billion yuan from January to July 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.3% [1] - Changzhou is close to achieving the goal set by Jiangsu's policy to exceed 1 trillion yuan in output value for the new energy sector by 2025 [1] Industry Overview - In recent years, the new energy industry has faced "involution" competition, raising questions about how Changzhou can achieve a leap in output value [2] - Historically, Changzhou was an "industrial star city" but fell behind in the 1990s due to slow development in export-oriented economic growth [2] - Since entering the new energy sector in 2009, Changzhou's output value in this area has surpassed 850 billion yuan by 2024, driven by the rapid development of the photovoltaic and battery industries [2] Market Dynamics - The average sales prices for new energy manufacturers, particularly in wind and solar power, have been declining, with solar prices now at about 15% of what they were a decade ago [3] - This price decline has negatively impacted profit levels, with many solar companies expected to operate at a loss in 2024, while wind turbine companies are still profitable but experiencing declining profit margins [3] - The export of solar batteries from China has shown a "volume increase, price drop" trend, with a 53.8% increase in export volume but a 23.4% decrease in export value from January to July 2025 [3] Strategic Initiatives - Changzhou has established a comprehensive "generation-storage-transmission-application" chain in the new energy sector, focusing on solar power, energy storage, and new electric power equipment [2] - The city is promoting technological differentiation as a strategy to maintain market competitiveness amid increasing homogeneity in the industry [5] - Changzhou is also fostering near-zero carbon parks and factories, aiming to create a new intelligent microgrid industry cluster worth hundreds of billions [6] Future Outlook - The new energy sector's future is expected to be characterized by the deep integration of watt economy and bit economy, with artificial intelligence being a key driver for high-quality industrial development [6] - Changzhou's recent action plan aims to accelerate the construction of a new energy system from 2025 to 2027, enhancing the influence of key application scenarios and promoting the integration of new energy with industrial parks and transportation infrastructure [6]