智通财经APP获悉，12月19日，乘联分会秘书长崔东树发文分析2025年11月全国商用车国内保险特征。根据国家金融局交强险数据，国内商用车交强险数 据的2025年商用车强势增长。由于新能源车强势增长和政策促进车辆更新，2025年新能源商用车整体呈现快速拉升的良好局面。3-11月持续高位，新能源 增长较强。11月商用车国内销量实现26万台，同比增4%，环比增4%。2025年1-11月商用车国内销量实现281万台，同比增长9%。2025年1-11月新能源商 用车累计达到77万台，同比增长54%。在2024年末政策翘尾后，2025年1月新能源表现相对较弱，2-9月同比暴增， 11月份新能源商用车达到9.2万台，同 比增长45%，环比增15%。 从2019-2021年，整个新能源商用车的渗透率在3%左右水平，2022年达到9%，2023年达到11%，2024年全年达到20%，2025年1-11月达到27%，同比增长7 个点，强于乘用车的增长，体现了新能源商用车强势增长良好态势。2025年11月商用车新能源渗透率36%， 较同期增长11个点，其中的卡车新能源渗透 率27%，客车新能源渗透率74%，较同期均有大幅提升。新 ...

Core Insights - The domestic commercial vehicle market is experiencing a strong growth trend, particularly in the new energy vehicle (NEV) segment, driven by policy support and increasing demand for vehicle upgrades [1][2][10] - In August, domestic commercial vehicle sales reached 246,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 14%, while the cumulative sales from January to August 2025 reached 2.01 million units, up 8% compared to the previous year [7][10] - The penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles is expected to reach 30% by August 2025, significantly higher than the 23% recorded in the same month of the previous year [13][15] Commercial Vehicle Market Analysis - The commercial vehicle market is showing a recovery after a period of decline, with 2025 projected to see a total of 2.85 million units sold, nearly flat compared to 2024 [6][10] - The sales of new energy commercial vehicles are projected to reach 579,000 units in 2024, representing an 84% year-on-year increase [11][12] - The market is characterized by a strong performance in the truck segment, particularly in heavy and light trucks, while the bus segment is also seeing growth due to electrification [15][19] New Energy Vehicle Insights - The penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles has increased from approximately 3% in 2019-2021 to 25% in the first eight months of 2025 [2][13] - The sales of new energy commercial vehicles from January to August 2025 reached 500,000 units, marking a 55% year-on-year increase [11][12] - The demand for new energy vehicles is particularly strong in the truck and bus segments, with truck penetration at 23% and bus penetration at 63% as of August 2025 [15][19] Competitive Landscape - Major players in the commercial vehicle market include Beiqi Foton, SAIC-GM-Wuling, and Dongfeng Motor, with Beiqi Foton leading in light truck sales [16][19] - The market is witnessing a shift towards new energy vehicles, with companies like Geely and Chery making significant strides in the light truck segment [22][24] - The competitive structure is evolving, with traditional fuel vehicles requiring effective policy support to maintain market share amidst the growing dominance of new energy vehicles [2][15]

Group 1: Overview of the Automotive Market - From July 1 to 20, 2025, the national retail sales of passenger cars reached 978,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 11%, but a month-on-month decrease of 12% [1] - Cumulative retail sales for the year reached 11.88 million units, also reflecting an 11% year-on-year growth [1] - For the same period, wholesale sales of passenger cars were 960,000 units, up 22% year-on-year but down 12% month-on-month [1] Group 2: New Energy Vehicle (NEV) Market - Retail sales of new energy passenger cars from July 1 to 20 reached 537,000 units, a 23% year-on-year increase, with a penetration rate of 54.9% [1] - Cumulative retail sales of NEVs for the year reached 6.006 million units, showing a 32% year-on-year growth [1] - Wholesale sales of NEVs during the same period were 514,000 units, up 25% year-on-year, with a penetration rate of 53.6% [1] Group 3: Market Trends and Predictions - The automotive market is expected to stabilize with a strong performance in July 2025, supported by favorable economic conditions and improved exports [4] - The market is entering a consolidation phase, with traditional fuel vehicle inventories being reduced due to market pressures [4] - The "trade-in" policy is anticipated to have a stronger impact in the second half of the year, with government policies aimed at stabilizing the market [4][5] Group 4: Wholesale Sales Analysis - Daily average wholesale sales for the first three weeks of July were 39,000, 46,000, and 58,000 units respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 39%, 31%, and 8% [6] - Cumulative wholesale sales for the year reached 14.24 million units, reflecting a 13% year-on-year increase [6] - The automotive industry is increasingly driven by both domestic and international demand, with a notable improvement in industry order [6] Group 5: Commercial Vehicle Market - In June 2025, domestic commercial vehicle sales reached 260,000 units, a 17% year-on-year increase [7] - The first half of 2025 saw commercial vehicle sales of 1.52 million units, a 6% year-on-year growth [7] - The penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles reached 24% in the first half of 2025, indicating strong growth [7] Group 6: Registration and Ownership Data - By June 2025, the total number of vehicles in China reached 359 million, with new energy vehicles accounting for 10.27% of this total [8] - The first half of 2025 saw 5.622 million new energy vehicles registered, a 27.86% year-on-year increase [8] - The rapid growth in vehicle scrappage rates indicates a dynamic market environment, with a net increase of 6.5 million vehicles expected this year [8] Group 7: International Market Insights - In Russia, the automotive market saw a significant increase in Chinese brand market share, reaching 57% in June 2025 [9] - The total automotive sales in Russia for the first half of 2025 were 600,000 units, a 29% year-on-year decline [9] - Chinese exports to Russia have shown strong growth, with significant increases in market penetration for Chinese brands [9]