智通财经APP获悉，1月29日，乘联分会秘书长崔东树发文介绍2025年12月全国商用车国内保险特征。根据国家金融局交强险数据，国内商用车交强险数 据的2025年商用车强势增长。由于新能源车强势增长和政策促进车辆更新，2025年新能源商用车整体呈现快速拉升的良好局面。3-12月持续高位，新能源 增长较强。今年商用车年末增长较强，12月商用车国内销量实现30万台，同比增5%，环比增15%。2025年1-12月商用车国内销量实现310万台，同比增长 9%，相对于2022年以来的商用车平稳期，今年创出近几年新高的良好水平。 在2024年末政策翘尾后，2025年1月新能源销量表现相对较弱，随后同比暴增，2025年12月份新能源商用车达到14万台，同比增长71%，环比增49%；1-12 月新能源商用车累计达到91万台，同比增长57%。 从2019-2021年，整个新能源商用车的渗透率在3%左右水平，2022年达到9%，2023年达到11%，2024年全年达到20%，2025年12月份新能源渗透率达到 46%，相对于去年12月的29%，提升17个百分点，表现相对较强。 2025年12月的卡车新能源渗透率38%，客车新能源渗 ...

Core Insights - The commercial vehicle market in China is experiencing significant growth, particularly in the new energy vehicle (NEV) segment, driven by policy support and increasing demand for vehicle upgrades [1][2][12] - In November 2025, the domestic sales of commercial vehicles reached 260,000 units, marking a 4% year-on-year and month-on-month increase, while total sales from January to November 2025 reached 2.81 million units, a 9% increase compared to the previous year [1][6] - The penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles has risen sharply, reaching 36% in November 2025, up 11 percentage points from the same month last year [2][12] Commercial Vehicle Market Analysis - The commercial vehicle market has shown a strong upward trend from February to November 2025, with sales driven by the growth of new energy vehicles [4][10] - The sales data indicates a recovery from previous years' lows, with 2025 expected to see stable performance compared to 2024, which had a total of 2.85 million units sold [5][6] - The market dynamics are shifting, with traditional fuel vehicles requiring effective policy support to compete with the rapidly growing new energy segment [2][12] New Energy Vehicle Performance - The cumulative sales of new energy commercial vehicles from January to November 2025 reached 770,000 units, reflecting a 54% year-on-year increase [1][8] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the commercial sector has increased significantly, from 3% in 2019-2021 to 27% in the first eleven months of 2025 [2][12] - In November 2025, new energy commercial vehicle sales reached 92,000 units, a 45% increase year-on-year and a 15% increase month-on-month [1][8] Market Structure and Competition - The market for commercial vehicles is characterized by stable structures in truck and bus segments, with significant growth in the new energy penetration rates for both [14][21] - Key players in the light truck market include Beiqi Foton, SAIC-GM-Wuling, and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, with Foton and Wuling leading in sales [15][21] - The heavy-duty truck segment is dominated by companies like FAW Jiefang and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, which have shown strong performance in the new energy sector [17][18] Regional Market Dynamics - The eastern and southern regions of China, particularly the Huabei and Huadong areas, show strong demand for light and heavy commercial vehicles, with increasing penetration of new energy vehicles [18][22] - The market for light commercial vehicles is particularly robust in economically developed regions, with significant sales growth in the southern and eastern parts of the country [19][23]

Core Insights - The domestic commercial vehicle market is experiencing a strong growth trend, particularly in the new energy vehicle (NEV) segment, driven by policy support and increasing demand for vehicle upgrades [1][2][10] - In August, domestic commercial vehicle sales reached 246,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 14%, while the cumulative sales from January to August 2025 reached 2.01 million units, up 8% compared to the previous year [7][10] - The penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles is expected to reach 30% by August 2025, significantly higher than the 23% recorded in the same month of the previous year [13][15] Commercial Vehicle Market Analysis - The commercial vehicle market is showing a recovery after a period of decline, with 2025 projected to see a total of 2.85 million units sold, nearly flat compared to 2024 [6][10] - The sales of new energy commercial vehicles are projected to reach 579,000 units in 2024, representing an 84% year-on-year increase [11][12] - The market is characterized by a strong performance in the truck segment, particularly in heavy and light trucks, while the bus segment is also seeing growth due to electrification [15][19] New Energy Vehicle Insights - The penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles has increased from approximately 3% in 2019-2021 to 25% in the first eight months of 2025 [2][13] - The sales of new energy commercial vehicles from January to August 2025 reached 500,000 units, marking a 55% year-on-year increase [11][12] - The demand for new energy vehicles is particularly strong in the truck and bus segments, with truck penetration at 23% and bus penetration at 63% as of August 2025 [15][19] Competitive Landscape - Major players in the commercial vehicle market include Beiqi Foton, SAIC-GM-Wuling, and Dongfeng Motor, with Beiqi Foton leading in light truck sales [16][19] - The market is witnessing a shift towards new energy vehicles, with companies like Geely and Chery making significant strides in the light truck segment [22][24] - The competitive structure is evolving, with traditional fuel vehicles requiring effective policy support to maintain market share amidst the growing dominance of new energy vehicles [2][15]

Group 1: Overview of the Automotive Market - From July 1 to 20, 2025, the national retail sales of passenger cars reached 978,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 11%, but a month-on-month decrease of 12% [1] - Cumulative retail sales for the year reached 11.88 million units, also reflecting an 11% year-on-year growth [1] - For the same period, wholesale sales of passenger cars were 960,000 units, up 22% year-on-year but down 12% month-on-month [1] Group 2: New Energy Vehicle (NEV) Market - Retail sales of new energy passenger cars from July 1 to 20 reached 537,000 units, a 23% year-on-year increase, with a penetration rate of 54.9% [1] - Cumulative retail sales of NEVs for the year reached 6.006 million units, showing a 32% year-on-year growth [1] - Wholesale sales of NEVs during the same period were 514,000 units, up 25% year-on-year, with a penetration rate of 53.6% [1] Group 3: Market Trends and Predictions - The automotive market is expected to stabilize with a strong performance in July 2025, supported by favorable economic conditions and improved exports [4] - The market is entering a consolidation phase, with traditional fuel vehicle inventories being reduced due to market pressures [4] - The "trade-in" policy is anticipated to have a stronger impact in the second half of the year, with government policies aimed at stabilizing the market [4][5] Group 4: Wholesale Sales Analysis - Daily average wholesale sales for the first three weeks of July were 39,000, 46,000, and 58,000 units respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 39%, 31%, and 8% [6] - Cumulative wholesale sales for the year reached 14.24 million units, reflecting a 13% year-on-year increase [6] - The automotive industry is increasingly driven by both domestic and international demand, with a notable improvement in industry order [6] Group 5: Commercial Vehicle Market - In June 2025, domestic commercial vehicle sales reached 260,000 units, a 17% year-on-year increase [7] - The first half of 2025 saw commercial vehicle sales of 1.52 million units, a 6% year-on-year growth [7] - The penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles reached 24% in the first half of 2025, indicating strong growth [7] Group 6: Registration and Ownership Data - By June 2025, the total number of vehicles in China reached 359 million, with new energy vehicles accounting for 10.27% of this total [8] - The first half of 2025 saw 5.622 million new energy vehicles registered, a 27.86% year-on-year increase [8] - The rapid growth in vehicle scrappage rates indicates a dynamic market environment, with a net increase of 6.5 million vehicles expected this year [8] Group 7: International Market Insights - In Russia, the automotive market saw a significant increase in Chinese brand market share, reaching 57% in June 2025 [9] - The total automotive sales in Russia for the first half of 2025 were 600,000 units, a 29% year-on-year decline [9] - Chinese exports to Russia have shown strong growth, with significant increases in market penetration for Chinese brands [9]