虚拟电厂和电力交易能成为新能源"救命稻草"吗？ 作者： 潘俊田 封图： 经观智创 "今年的SNEC展会，没人关注光伏组件和储能，都跑去看虚拟电厂了。"上海梦象科技有限公司总 经理助理张弋告诉经济观察报。6月11日，第十八届（2025）国际太阳能光伏和智慧能源&储能 及电池技术与装备（大会）暨展览会（SNEC）召开，这是光伏行业每年最大规模的展会。 在本届SNEC展会上，虚拟电厂和电力交易成为各家厂商推介的重点产品。张弋在展会前夕参加了 远景能源的虚拟电厂和电力交易推介会，天合光能也发布了虚拟电厂和电力交易产品。国能日新、 中曜达等电力相关企业以及正泰集团、阳光电源等光储相关企业，均在展会现场为虚拟电厂和电力 交易业务专门设置了展台。 每家厂商的PPT前几页基本一样，均认为："136号文"（《关于深化新能源上网电价市场化改革促 进新能源高质量发展的通知》）中规定的"2025年5月31日"时间节点之后，光伏电站发电将"全 面入市"，原有的固定电价收益模式会转变为市场化电价收益。在这一转变下，虚拟电厂和电力交 易业务能够更有效地提升客户收益。 这些业务的核心客户是"531新政"后尚处于迷茫状态的电站持有者们。 张弋 ...

Core Insights - The SNEC exhibition highlighted a shift in focus from photovoltaic components and energy storage to virtual power plants and electricity trading, indicating a significant trend in the renewable energy sector [2][3] - The implementation of the "Document No. 136" is expected to transform the revenue model for photovoltaic power stations from fixed pricing to market-based pricing, enhancing the profitability of virtual power plants and electricity trading services [2][4] Industry Trends - Virtual power plants and electricity trading have become key offerings at the SNEC exhibition, with major companies like Envision Energy and Trina Solar promoting these services [2][3] - The market for electricity trading services is viewed as a "blue ocean" opportunity, despite the current lack of comprehensive supporting regulations following the "Document No. 136" [4] Market Dynamics - Developers of photovoltaic power stations are expressing anxiety about transitioning to the electricity market, with concerns about profitability and market conditions [3] - The average price for photovoltaic electricity in Xinjiang has decreased by 0.56% year-on-year, raising concerns about potential losses for power station operators [3] Policy Impact - The "Document No. 136" mandates that renewable energy sources must fully enter the market by May 31, 2025, which is expected to increase competition and market dynamics [7] - Various provinces are implementing regulations that require a portion of electricity to enter the market, with some regions mandating up to 20% of electricity to be traded [7][8] Financial Opportunities - The potential market for electricity trading is substantial, with estimates suggesting that if all renewable energy installations enter the market, the annual tradable electricity could reach approximately 4 trillion kWh, creating a market space of around 600 billion yuan [8] - Companies are increasingly interested in virtual power plants as a means to enhance the asset yield of their photovoltaic projects, with some reporting significant increases in revenue through these services [12][13] Technological Advancements - The development of virtual power plants requires significant technological capabilities, including the ability to aggregate and control diverse photovoltaic installations [14][15] - Companies are focusing on improving their algorithms and data capabilities to enhance their competitiveness in electricity trading [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight increase in revenue for Q1 2025, but a decline in net profit, attributed to falling electricity prices and increased depreciation costs [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue reached 3.558 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.93% - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.021 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.44% - The decline in profit is linked to lower electricity prices and increased depreciation due to new projects [1][2]. Power Generation and Capacity - The company generated 9.905 billion kWh of electricity in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.26% - Wind power generation was 8.921 billion kWh, up 8.57% year-on-year, while solar power generation was 984 million kWh, up 15.98% year-on-year - As of the end of 2024, the installed capacity for wind and solar power was 14.4818 million kW and 4.3645 million kW, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 11.56% and 79.06% [1][2]. Market Conditions - The average wind speed at 10 meters nationwide in April 2025 was 0.98% higher than the same period over the past decade, contributing to a 16.68% increase in wind power generation for the month [2]. - The decline in revenue growth compared to power generation growth is attributed to lower electricity prices following the marketization of renewable energy [2]. Accounts Receivable and Valuation - Accounts receivable amounted to 23 billion yuan, approximately 1.54 times the company's current market value of 16.1 billion HKD - The receivables primarily consist of renewable energy subsidy payments, which have been a constraint on capital expenditure and dividends [3]. - The company has improved its dividend payout, with a total dividend of 0.09 yuan per share in 2024, representing 52% of the distributable profit [3]. Long-term Outlook - The company is viewed positively in the context of the wind power sector, which is expected to have higher investment value compared to solar power due to better operational efficiency and lower costs [3]. - The recent policy (Document No. 136) is seen as beneficial for existing assets, enhancing the long-term value of established wind power operators [3]. Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.32 billion, 2.46 billion, and 2.52 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 6.5, 6.1, and 5.9 [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the long-term value of wind power operators despite short-term performance drag due to market entry challenges [5][7] - The company has shown a revenue increase of 0.93% year-on-year in Q1 2025, but net profit decreased by 4.44% due to falling electricity prices and increased depreciation [7] - The report highlights the company's strong growth in power generation, with a 9.26% increase in total generation in Q1 2025, driven by new installations and favorable wind conditions [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 12,802 million RMB - 2024: 12,576 million RMB - 2025E: 13,987 million RMB (11.2% growth) - 2026E: 14,770 million RMB (5.6% growth) - 2027E: 15,480 million RMB (4.8% growth) [6][8] - Net profit projections are as follows: - 2023: 2,240 million RMB - 2024: 1,925 million RMB - 2025E: 2,317 million RMB (20.4% growth) - 2026E: 2,457 million RMB (6.1% growth) - 2027E: 2,522 million RMB (2.6% growth) [6][8] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.32 RMB in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 6.5 [6][8] Market Position and Outlook - The company has a total market capitalization of 16,147.62 million HKD and a circulating market capitalization of 5,552.38 million HKD [3] - The report indicates that the company’s receivables are approximately 1.54 times its current market value, reflecting strong recognition from state-owned insurance capital [7] - The report expresses optimism regarding the long-term value of wind power operators, citing advantages over solar power in terms of output and operational cycles [7]