大摩闭门会：新能源、锂电、交运行业更新 20251203_ 原文 2025 年 12 月 03 日 12:36 发言人 00:00 好，各位上午好。今天是 12 月 3 号，欢迎来到摩根士丹利每周三的周期论剑的在线直播。我是张磊 Rachel，基础材料行业的分析师。 发言人 00:09 今天的话我们讨论几个主题，一个是我们供应行业，公用事业和新能源行业的首席伊娃侯，会跟我们聊一 下最近他们对新能源行业近期的一些观点的更新，以及他们前段时间做了一个储能的调研，聊一下这一块 然后接着的话，我们能源化工和电子行业的分析师 jack 吕，会聊一下他们最近对宁德时代的最近的一些观 点，以及整个锂电池产业链的一些市场反馈。然后最后我们交运行业的首席范倩蕾和他们组的泰尼森会聊 一下最近他们对整个交运行业、航空行业最近的一些观点的一个更新。 发言人 00:44 开始之前，我先要帮我和同事们拉一下票，excel 也就是原来的 I 本周五就要结束了，我们非常重视这个投 票，您的支持对我们非常重要。所以麻烦大家在技术材料行业、石油化工、交运公用事业都帮忙支持一下 我们各位同事。另外开始例行，我需要读个 dic 请注意，本次会议仅面 ...

Core Insights - The meeting focused on the development of electricity and renewable energy during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, emphasizing the production rhythm of thermal power, nuclear power, and wind-solar energy over the next five years. The renewable energy and energy storage sectors still present medium to long-term investment opportunities driven by policy support and market demand [1][2][3] Group 1: Electricity Development Direction - The electricity system will strengthen the construction of base-load energy, particularly thermal and nuclear power, before reaching carbon peak by 2030. A batch of approved thermal power projects is expected to be put into operation in the early years of the 14th Five-Year Plan [2][14] - Nuclear power is projected to enter a peak production period around 2027-2028, with approximately 10-12 nuclear units approved for construction each year since 2022 [2][14] - The pace of new energy (solar and wind) investment by state-owned enterprises and the five major power generation groups may slow compared to the previous five-year plan, with expected new installations in 2023 between 150 GW and 200 GW, a significant decline from previous years [2][15] Group 2: Wind and Solar Energy Insights - Wind energy is expected to maintain an annual installation rate of approximately 100-120 GW during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with offshore wind energy showing significant potential. The government is developing a three-year action plan for deep-sea wind development, which could positively impact offshore wind energy growth post-2027 [3][15] - The demand for solar and wind energy is anticipated to recover gradually from the second quarter of next year after a seasonal decline in demand during the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year [3][16] Group 3: Energy Storage and Investment Outlook - The enthusiasm for independent energy storage investments is high among local private enterprises, driven by the increasing share of renewable energy generation and the need for energy storage to smooth out peak and valley loads [4][17] - The independent energy storage market is expected to see a demand of approximately 150 GWh this year, with growth rates for next year projected between 50% and 100% [5][19] - The investment outlook for the electricity grid during the 14th Five-Year Plan is optimistic, with significant growth in grid investment expected to continue, potentially outpacing electricity demand growth [4][16] Group 4: Battery and Energy Chemical Sector - The energy storage sector is entering a commercial phase, with improved economic viability driven by favorable policies and market arrangements. The market sentiment has shifted positively, indicating a good year ahead for energy storage [7][20] - The long-term growth rate for the energy storage market is estimated at around 25% CAGR, with global energy storage demand expected to grow by at least 30% next year [8][21] - The demand for raw materials such as aluminum, copper, and lithium is expected to increase significantly due to the rapid growth of energy storage and battery needs [11][25] Group 5: Transportation Sector Insights - The aviation sector is experiencing a reduction in flight schedules, particularly on routes to Japan, with a decrease of approximately 17%-25% in overall flights, primarily affecting Chinese airlines [12][26]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the "Big Beautiful Act" on energy storage projects, highlighting the urgency for project delivery and the implications for subsidies based on local manufacturing and technology licensing strategies. Group 1: Impact of the Big Beautiful Act - The Big Beautiful Act leads to a rush in project deliveries due to tariff relief periods, causing previously agreed projects to start shipping [1] - Two ways to avoid the Act's impact and continue receiving ITC subsidies are having local factories in North America or adopting a technology licensing model [1][2] Group 2: Trade and Subsidy Challenges - Direct exports from China or through Southeast Asia will incur tariffs and will not qualify for subsidies, complicating the situation for companies like Yiwei [3] - The Act directly affects PFE factors, with companies like Yuanjing facing challenges due to their significant battery production capacity in the U.S. [4] Group 3: Strategies for Addressing SCOE Issues - Yuanjing is pursuing two strategies: collaborating with controlled partners to acquire factory shares and working closely with clients needing U.S. production to secure future orders [5] Group 4: Market Capacity and Pricing - The U.S. battery production capacity is insufficient, leading to reliance on Chinese investments, which may increase overall system prices due to tariffs and long construction cycles [8] - The expected storage installation capacity in the U.S. for this year is projected to exceed 39 GWh, nearing 50 GWh, but is expected to decline next year due to higher tariffs and the Act's requirements [10][11] Group 5: European and Middle Eastern Market Insights - The European market is expected to grow from 8-9 GWh last year to approximately 15-16 GWh this year, with lower prices in Central Europe [13] - The Middle East market's growth is slower than anticipated, with project delays affecting installation volumes, but certain projects remain strong growth points [14] Group 6: Domestic Market Dynamics - The domestic electrochemical energy storage market is thriving, driven by policy support and increasing demand for storage solutions [21] - The investment logic for domestic storage projects includes self-built storage or partnerships to smooth power curves, with revenue sources from price differences, auxiliary services, and capacity subsidies [22][29] Group 7: Future Outlook and Investment Considerations - The domestic storage market is expected to continue growing, with significant increases in battery shipment volumes anticipated this year [23] - Investment returns in storage projects are influenced by policy changes, market competition, and the evolving electricity market, necessitating careful evaluation [30]

Group 1: Financial Performance - As of the end of August, the company received a total of 2.319 billion CNY in renewable energy subsidies, with 2.252 billion CNY coming from national subsidies, marking a year-on-year increase of 258.60% [2][3] - The subsidies received by the company accounted for 182.64% of the total national renewable energy subsidies received in 2024 [3] Group 2: Policy and Market Response - Multiple provinces have released formal plans or drafts in response to Document No. 136, establishing specific mechanisms for electricity pricing based on local renewable energy development [3][4] - The company plans to restructure its photovoltaic project calculation models in response to the implementation of Document No. 136, focusing on cost control and enhancing electricity trading capabilities [4] Group 3: Project Development and Investment - By the end of 2025, the company aims to have a total installed capacity of over 13.6 GW, including operational, under construction, and planned projects [5] - The company expects to add approximately 1.52 GW of new installed capacity in 2025 compared to 2024, with total investment in photovoltaic power stations estimated at around 6 billion CNY, assuming a cost of 4 CNY per watt [6]

Group 1: Coal Procurement and Pricing - The company's coal procurement primarily relies on long-term contracts, accounting for approximately 85% of total procurement, with market coal used as a supplement [2] - Fuel costs constitute 60-70% of the total generation and heating costs, influenced by market supply and demand dynamics, as well as changes in electricity prices [2] Group 2: New Energy Market Developments - Following the issuance of Document 136, there was a surge in new energy installations in Shanxi before May 31, with the market now awaiting further regulatory details [2] - The company currently has 300,000 kW of new energy capacity under construction, with future development contingent on the implementation of relevant provincial policies [3] Group 3: Power Generation Capacity and Goals - Shanxi Province has approved several clean and efficient coal-fired power projects, totaling approximately 8.64 million kW of installed capacity, with potential plans bringing the total close to 10 million kW [3] - The approved projects are expected to significantly enhance power supply and delivery capabilities in the short term, while long-term strategies will focus on technological upgrades and the integration of coal and new energy [3] Group 4: Financing Costs - The company's current comprehensive financing cost stands at 3.4% (excluding equity), a decrease of 20 basis points since the beginning of the year, with expectations to reduce it further to 3.15% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the "Document 136" is accelerating the marketization of electricity prices, fundamentally restructuring the revenue model for photovoltaic (PV) power generation, leading to increased uncertainty in both electricity prices and quantities, particularly affecting new projects more than existing ones [3][4][5]. Group 1: Impact of "Document 136" - The "Document 136" has prompted various provinces to issue supporting policies, with Inner Mongolia being the first to release a formal implementation plan [1][3]. - The revenue model for PV power generation will change, with income now derived from mechanism electricity prices and market transactions, rather than guaranteed purchases [3][4]. - The uncertainty in electricity prices and quantities for new PV projects is expected to increase, raising concerns about their viability in the market [3][8]. Group 2: Mechanism Electricity Prices for Existing Projects - Existing projects will have their revenue continuity emphasized, with mechanism electricity prices aligning with local coal benchmark prices, providing a relatively stable income [4]. - For example, the mechanism electricity price in Inner Mongolia is set at 0.3035 yuan/kWh, while in Shandong, it is 0.3949 yuan/kWh, both adhering to the requirements of "Document 136" [4]. - Despite the stability in mechanism electricity prices, the market transaction component remains highly uncertain due to the rapid increase in PV installations, leading to lower actual utilization rates [4][5]. Group 3: Challenges for Incremental Projects - Incremental projects face significant uncertainties regarding both mechanism electricity prices and quantities, with no guarantees for their revenue [5][6]. - The mechanism electricity price for incremental projects is expected to be lower than that for existing projects, potentially leading to price competition [7]. - The execution period for mechanism electricity prices and quantities for incremental projects is also likely to be significantly shorter than that for existing projects, further increasing uncertainty [7][8]. Group 4: Distributed PV Generation Costs - Future distributed PV projects will be required to pay for various costs, including government funds and system reserve fees, which will reduce their profitability [9][10]. - The costs associated with distributed PV generation, such as cross-subsidies and system reserve fees, are expected to be substantial, potentially exceeding 0.2 yuan/kWh [9][10]. - There are ongoing debates regarding the specific fees that distributed PV projects will need to pay, particularly concerning self-consumed electricity [10]. Group 5: Policy and Market Dynamics - The current policy environment aims to stabilize electricity prices while managing the rising costs associated with PV generation, which is influenced by the need for backup power and grid infrastructure [11][15]. - The balance between stabilizing electricity prices and the increasing costs of PV systems presents a challenge for the future of the industry [15][16]. - The overall expectation is that while PV generation will eventually enter the market, the process will be fraught with challenges, leading to a "narrow door" for new entrants [16].

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of Document No. 136 and the adjustment of electricity pricing policies in various provinces have led to increased uncertainty in the domestic commercial energy storage market, marking a critical point for the restructuring of business models in the energy storage industry [1][3]. Policy Uncertainty - Economic factors are the primary drivers for commercial energy storage, with the previous business model relying on "peak-valley arbitrage" to profit from price differences [3]. - Despite the national-level direction provided by Document No. 136, local implementation details are lagging, with only Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang issuing provincial-level documents, while other regions are still developing their guidelines [3][4]. - Some regions with significant fluctuations in renewable energy output still maintain mandatory energy storage requirements, complicating the transition to new business models [3][4]. Investment Decision Challenges - The current policy vacuum creates uncertainty for energy storage companies in project decision-making, as investment returns are heavily dependent on future revenue expectations [4]. - Companies are encouraged to explore new profit opportunities through "internal" and "external" circulation models to maximize returns despite reduced price differentials [4]. Industry Transition - The energy storage industry is transitioning from rapid expansion to a focus on high-quality development, with a notable decline in installed capacity for electrochemical energy storage in the first quarter of this year [5]. - The market is shifting from a focus on scale to efficiency and effectiveness, leading to more cautious and rational investment decisions [5]. Market Dynamics - The energy storage sector is experiencing a shakeout, with low-quality capacity expected to be eliminated as the industry matures [6][7]. - The competitive landscape is characterized by chaotic growth, with many companies entering the market with short-term profit motives, leading to unsustainable practices [7]. - The introduction of Document No. 136 has exposed the unsustainable nature of previous low-price competition, accelerating the exit of low-quality players from the market [7]. Future Outlook - The energy storage market is projected to see significant growth, with new installed capacity expected to reach 70 million kilowatts by 2024, representing a 130% increase from the end of 2023 [6]. - The industry is expected to evolve towards a model that emphasizes software and service capabilities, with companies needing to excel in both hardware and software to remain competitive [8][9]. - The demand for energy storage is currently heavily reliant on mandatory storage policies, and the impact of Document No. 136 is anticipated to disrupt market demand, particularly for large-scale storage systems [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant advancements and collaborations in the energy storage industry showcased at the recent "2025 Global User-side Energy Storage Industry Value Summit and Application Demonstration Exhibition," emphasizing the shift towards energy storage solutions and the introduction of innovative products and partnerships among leading companies in the sector [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Trends and Developments - The exhibition transformed from a photovoltaic focus to a dedicated energy storage event, with a notable increase in the number of storage companies and products presented [1]. - Several companies signed major cooperation agreements and secured GWh-level procurement orders during the event, indicating a robust market demand for energy storage solutions [1][2]. - The introduction of products responding to the 136 policy and market value transformation reflects the industry's adaptation to regulatory changes and market needs [1]. Group 2: Key Product Launches - Companies like采日能源 showcased advanced storage systems, including the Serlattice G3 10MWh intelligent storage system, which aims to reduce costs and expand application scenarios [5]. - 中车株洲所 presented its构网型储能系统 and the "云枢" storage inverter, emphasizing high power density and safety features [6][8]. - 华为数字能源 launched the FusionSolar9.0, a smart string-based energy storage solution that integrates various energy management capabilities [10][12]. Group 3: Notable Collaborations and Agreements - 采日能源 and other companies formed strategic partnerships to enhance their energy storage ecosystems, focusing on comprehensive energy solutions [3][18]. - 南都电源 signed a strategic cooperation agreement with 太蓝新能源 to explore solid-state battery applications in ultra-safe energy storage [23]. - 蜂巢能源 established significant strategic agreements with various industry leaders to enhance its market presence and technological capabilities [87]. Group 4: Company-Specific Innovations - 比亚迪储能 introduced several new products, including the MC Cube-T Pro BESS with a capacity of 6.4MWh, featuring advanced safety and operational efficiency [15]. - 亿纬锂能 launched the 836kWh modular cabinet, designed for flexibility and efficiency in commercial energy storage applications [24][27]. - 国轩高科 unveiled its 20MWh energy storage battery system, which received substantial orders and is designed for long-term reliability and safety [31][32]. Group 5: Emerging Technologies and Solutions - 海博思创 presented its "储能+X" full-scene solutions, integrating various storage technologies for diverse applications [16][18]. - 智光电气 showcased its liquid-cooled commercial storage unit, emphasizing high efficiency and safety in demanding environments [60][62]. - 永泰数能's Aurora 5015 system demonstrated high energy density and cost efficiency, marking a significant advancement in the industry [97]. Group 6: Market Outlook - The article indicates a strong growth trajectory for the energy storage market, driven by technological advancements, regulatory support, and increasing demand for sustainable energy solutions [1][2]. - The collaborations and innovations presented at the exhibition suggest a competitive landscape where companies are actively seeking to enhance their offerings and market positions [1][2].

Group 1: Impact of Policy and Market Strategy - The implementation of Document No. 136 is crucial for the future development of the renewable energy industry, with specific guidelines yet to be published in most provinces [2][3] - The company will closely monitor the rollout of electricity trading policies across provinces to adapt its investment and operational strategies accordingly [2][3] Group 2: Technology and Product Utilization - The company primarily uses N-type TOPCon technology for its current power stations, with plans to consider IBC and HJT technologies as costs decrease [3] - The focus is on optimizing power marketing strategies to enhance project investment efficiency and drive high-quality development [3] Group 3: Business Expansion and New Initiatives - The company aims to improve trading capabilities through personnel training, system construction, and data management, while also advancing its electricity sales business [3] - Plans include expanding commercial energy storage and exploring the feasibility of virtual power plant operations to create new economic growth points [3] Group 4: Future Capacity Planning - By the end of 2025, the company targets a total operational, under-construction, and planned capacity exceeding 13.6 GW, including signed pre-purchase agreements [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company aims to expand its solar power capacity significantly while navigating regulatory changes and enhancing its project portfolio both domestically and internationally [2][5]. Group 1: Company Operations and Strategy - By the end of 2025, the company targets a total operational, under construction, and planned solar power capacity exceeding 13.6 GW [2]. - As of the end of 2024, the company operates approximately 6.076 GW of solar power stations, with about 2.081 GW under construction and a project reserve of around 17 GW [3]. - The company is actively exploring various types of energy storage projects, including commercial storage and independent storage, while also researching advanced storage technologies [4]. Group 2: Regulatory and Market Environment - The implementation of the 136 document and its guidelines is a critical focus for the renewable energy sector, influencing future development strategies [2]. - The company is closely monitoring the rollout of electricity trading policies across different provinces to adapt its operational strategies accordingly [2]. Group 3: International Expansion - The company has established an overseas business department and is in discussions with relevant authorities in Sri Lanka, Indonesia, and Uzbekistan, with a signed MOU with the Kyrgyzstan National Investment Agency [5]. - The focus for the next two years will be on accelerating investments in solar power projects along the Belt and Road Initiative [5]. Group 4: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a main revenue of 1.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8%, and a net profit of 289 million yuan, down 17.62% year-on-year [8]. - The company has a debt ratio of 52.22% and financial expenses amounting to 141 million yuan, with a gross profit margin of 44.79% [8].