证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·机械设备 机械设备行业跟踪周报 看好 AI 设备高景气带来的设备投资机会；看 好出海持续超预期的油服设备 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [1.Table_Summary] 推荐组合：北方华创、三一重工、中微公司、恒立液压、中集集团、拓荆科技、海天 国际、柏楚电子、晶盛机电、杰瑞股份、浙江鼎力、杭叉集团、先导智能、长川科技、 华测检测、安徽合力、精测电子、纽威股份、芯源微、绿的谐波、海天精工、杭可科 技、伊之密、新莱应材、高测股份、纽威数控、华中数控。 2.投资要点： 【AI 设备】摩尔线程上市&美国解除 H200 出口限制，看好 AI 算力基础设施 建设 近期摩尔线程成功登陆科创板，截至 2025 年 12 月 12 日市值已达 3830 亿元。 另外 12 月 9 日美国解除 H200 芯片出口限制，但需缴纳 25%销售额上交美国 政府。摩尔线程上市成功，有望推动国产算力 GPU 技术持续迭代，国产建设 有望加速。英伟达 H200 解除出口限制，一方面有望推动国内云厂商采购芯片 建设算力集群，另一方面 H200 进入中国市场竞争，将助推国产 GPU 不断升 级迭代，国产算 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the overall fund inflow into stock ETFs shows a reverse correlation with the market trend, indicating a lag in retail investor sentiment and behavior during market uptrends [2][24][25] - It notes that since the beginning of the year, net inflows have been particularly strong in technology growth, non-bank financials, and certain core assets [2][24] - The report suggests that while high levels of ETF fund inflows do not correlate with significant stock price increases, the pricing power of ETFs has been increasing from May to September, indicating a shift towards more informed investment behavior [2][24][26] Group 2 - The fixed income section discusses the current state of the bond market, indicating that without a strong configuration of buyers, the market remains in a state of fluctuation, particularly for long-term bonds [3][32] - It emphasizes that the lack of demand from banks and insurance companies for long-term bonds is a persistent issue, compounded by increased supply pressures [3][32][34] - The report projects that the yield on 10-year government bonds may face resistance in the range of 1.80%-1.90%, while the 30-year bonds do not show signs of reaching a peak yet [3][34] Group 3 - The report on the chemical industry indicates that the revenue and net profit of listed companies in the basic chemical sector showed slight year-on-year growth in the first half of 2025, with total revenue reaching 1.12 trillion yuan, up 3.1% [8] - It highlights that the second quarter of 2025 saw a slight increase in revenue but a decrease in profit margins, indicating a challenging environment for profitability [8] - The report notes a significant decline in the growth rate of construction projects, suggesting a potential bottoming out of profitability in the sector [8] Group 4 - The report on Tonghe Technology indicates that the company is positioned to be a leader in the charging module sector, with expectations of significant growth driven by the data center HVDC power module market [7][22] - It forecasts revenue growth from 13.3 billion yuan in 2025 to 21.9 billion yuan by 2027, with net profit expected to increase significantly during the same period [7][22] - The report assigns a price-to-earnings ratio of 43x for 2026, suggesting a target price of 43.7 yuan per share, reflecting a positive outlook for the company's future performance [7][22] Group 5 - The report on electric power companies indicates that the investment in the power grid is expected to exceed 825 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a significant increase in infrastructure spending [20] - It highlights the establishment of settlement companies to address renewable energy subsidy gaps, indicating a proactive approach to financing renewable energy projects [20] - The report suggests that investors should focus on companies involved in renewable energy operations and those transitioning from coal to renewable sources [20]