以下文章来源于孤独大脑 ，作者老喻的 孤独大脑 . 一个专注于"元认知"的跨学科思想平台。由得到App《人生算法》课程主理人、中信出版社年度作者老 喻原创，100万深度思考者订阅的决策指南。融合科学、哲学、与概率论，系统性拆解AI、投资与复杂 决策问题，与你一起探索理性边界，实现丰盛人生。 来源 | 孤独大脑 作者 | 老喻 预计阅读时间：5分钟 现在各种成功学方法论里，也强调各种杠杆的作用。 那么，杠杆这把"放大器"，是捷径还是陷阱？ 01 杠杆的"魔咒" 为何不是点金石？ 杠杆本身不创造价值，更非"低风险高收益"的套利手段。 1.数学迷思：每日复利的"波动损耗" 杠杆ETF通过每日重设仓位机制，确保当日回报维持预设杠杆倍数。这导致了"波动损耗"（Volatility Drag）或"复利衰减" 。 若标的先涨10%再跌10%，初始100元变为99元； 而3倍ETF则变为91元 。 简单计算如下： （1+30%）✖（1-30%）=0.91 此现象源于几何平均回报低于算术平均回报，且杠杆会不成比例地放大此效应。 也就是说，即使市场随机波动，盈亏之间是不对称的。 而加上杠杆，放大了这种不对称性——进一步扩大了对几 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential risks and pitfalls of using leveraged ETFs, particularly those that aim to provide three times the daily return of the semiconductor index [1][2][3] - Leveraged ETFs do not create value and are not a low-risk, high-reward arbitrage tool, as they amplify both gains and losses [2][30] - The concept of "volatility drag" is introduced, explaining how daily resetting of positions can lead to significant losses over time, especially in volatile markets [3][6][24] Group 2 - A mathematical example illustrates that a 10% gain followed by a 10% loss results in a net loss for both the underlying asset and the leveraged ETF, highlighting the asymmetrical nature of returns [4][5] - The article emphasizes that leveraged ETFs have a "path dependency," meaning their final returns are highly influenced by the specific daily price movements [7][19] - The extreme risk of leveraged ETFs is underscored by the fact that a single-day drop of over 33.33% in the underlying index could theoretically render the ETF worthless [8][9] Group 3 - Historical performance data shows that while a specific three-times leveraged semiconductor ETF has had impressive annualized returns over various time frames, these returns are not guaranteed to continue [19][20][35] - The article warns that the high volatility and potential for significant drawdowns, as seen in 2022, make these products unsuitable for long-term holding [22][36] - It is suggested that such leveraged products are more appropriate for short-term trading or very small allocations due to their heightened risk compared to broad market indices [25][34] Group 4 - The article draws parallels between physics and finance, stating that relying solely on leverage for excess profits is akin to believing in a perpetual motion machine [13][15] - The high management fees associated with leveraged ETFs, such as a 0.75% fee for SOXL compared to 0.03%-0.2% for regular ETFs, further erode potential returns [17] - Regulatory warnings indicate that leveraged ETFs are not suitable for long-term investment strategies [18][34]