以下文章来源于孤独大脑 ，作者老喻的 孤独大脑 . 一个专注于"元认知"的跨学科思想平台。由得到App《人生算法》课程主理人、中信出版社年度作者老 喻原创，100万深度思考者订阅的决策指南。融合科学、哲学、与概率论，系统性拆解AI、投资与复杂 决策问题，与你一起探索理性边界，实现丰盛人生。 来源 | 孤独大脑 作者 | 老喻 预计阅读时间：5分钟 现在各种成功学方法论里，也强调各种杠杆的作用。 那么，杠杆这把"放大器"，是捷径还是陷阱？ 01 杠杆的"魔咒" 为何不是点金石？ 杠杆本身不创造价值，更非"低风险高收益"的套利手段。 1.数学迷思：每日复利的"波动损耗" 杠杆ETF通过每日重设仓位机制，确保当日回报维持预设杠杆倍数。这导致了"波动损耗"（Volatility Drag）或"复利衰减" 。 若标的先涨10%再跌10%，初始100元变为99元； 而3倍ETF则变为91元 。 简单计算如下： （1+30%）✖（1-30%）=0.91 此现象源于几何平均回报低于算术平均回报，且杠杆会不成比例地放大此效应。 也就是说，即使市场随机波动，盈亏之间是不对称的。 而加上杠杆，放大了这种不对称性——进一步扩大了对几 ...

Group 1 - Leveraged ETFs are generally viewed as poor investment vehicles due to high expenses and volatility, often launched after investment narratives have already occurred [1] - The investment strategy discussed involves a balanced portfolio of low-cost funds and single stocks, with a focus on long-term holding and understanding market dynamics beyond just numerical analysis [2] - The analyst expresses a bullish outlook on specific stocks including AMD, PLTR, TSLA, and Bitcoin, indicating a positive sentiment towards these investments [2] Group 2 - Leveraged products like SOXL are associated with high risks, including potential for amplified losses and high expense ratios, suggesting caution for investors [4] - The article emphasizes the importance of conducting personal research and aligning investments with individual financial objectives and risk tolerance [4]