Core Viewpoint - Cobalt prices are experiencing significant volatility, with a recent drop of 6,000 yuan to 250,000 yuan per ton, influenced by extended export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and high inventory pressures [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The DRC, which accounts for 76% of global cobalt production, has extended its export ban, leading to short-term supply constraints and price fluctuations in the cobalt market [3][4]. - The global cobalt market is expected to shift from a surplus of 50,000 tons in 2025 to a shortage of 78,000 tons due to the DRC's export restrictions [4]. - Cobalt is primarily a byproduct of copper mining, and the DRC's policies may prompt a reevaluation of its business environment, potentially increasing Indonesia's market share [3][4]. Group 2: Production and Supply Chain - According to USGS data, global cobalt production is projected to reach 290,000 tons in 2024, with the DRC producing 220,000 tons, a 25% increase year-on-year [4]. - Chinese imports of cobalt intermediate products from the DRC have slightly decreased, but supply risks are anticipated to rise in the latter half of the year due to the DRC's export limitations [6]. - The current price of cobalt has reached the cost line for domestic cobalt salt manufacturers, and a drop below 240,000 yuan per ton could trigger production cuts among high-cost mining companies [6][7]. Group 3: Industry Performance - The profitability within the cobalt supply chain is showing divergence, with upstream producers holding back on sales while downstream sectors remain cautious [5][7]. - Battery manufacturers are increasingly reluctant to absorb rising costs, leading to stable prices in the lithium cobalt oxide market despite stronger cost support [7]. - Companies like Huaneng Cobalt and Tianyuan Cobalt have reported fluctuating profits, with Huaneng Cobalt's net profit in Q1 2025 increasing by 194% year-on-year, while Tianyuan Cobalt's profit has shown a decline in previous years [7][8].

曾经掀动锂电行业风云的电池级原材料——钴，近日再度牵动从业人士神经。 2月24日，全球最大钴供应国刚果（金）宣布暂停钴出口四个月，以应对国际市场供应过剩导致的钴价持续低迷。 该政策自2月22日生效，计划三个月后评估效果并决定是否调整。该政策发布后，引发钴全系产品价格的大幅上涨。 其中，受钴原料事件的 持续发酵，硫酸钴价格已连续7日上涨，累计涨幅达已达35%。 数据显示，3月5日硫酸钴现货价格持续大幅上行。硫酸钴3.5-3.7万元/吨，均价3.6万元/吨，环比上一工作日上涨3000元/吨。 多数盐厂捂货惜售情绪极为浓厚，开始调整报价对下游承接力度进行试探。部分企业因担忧原料价格持续上行，已陆续出现批量备库情况。 多家企业宣布调整报价 3月6日，有消息显示，赣锋锂电将对所有新订单重新定价，引起了广泛关注。 一则赣锋锂电发布的客户告知函显示：受刚果（金）局势影响，锂电池行业正面临成本上升和供应链中断的挑战。为保障供货稳定，自即日 起，所有新订单均需重新确认价格，具体价格请和我司销售人员对接沟通。 目前，赣锋锂电并未对此消息做出回应。 除了赣锋外，还有广东一厂家在通告中表示，因刚果(金)政府于2025年2月24日宣布 ...