Workflow
日元国际化
icon
Search documents
败局已定说日元
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-13 14:24
第二次世界大战后,日本经济持续复苏。从1955年至1973年间,日本经济持续保持两位数的高速增长, 至20世纪60年代末已一跃成为仅次于美国的世界第二大经济体。 大约在同一时期,日本开始推动日元国际化进程。1964年,日本开始履行《国际货币基金组织协定》第 八条款的义务,实现日元经常项目自由兑换。20世纪70年代,日元国际化开始起步。1980年12月,日本 颁布新《外汇法》,基本实现日元在资本项目的自由可兑换。20世纪80年代,日本推出推动日元国际化 的一揽子方案,包括鼓励国际企业在日本使用日元,以加大日元在国际金融市场的使用力度;扩大日元 清算及其在国际金融市场的存贷款业务;加强日元汇率监管和改进日元汇率机制以确保日元汇率稳定; 等等。此后,日本又在东京开设离岸市场,实现利率市场化。一系列举措在一定时期内和一定程度上推 进了日元的国际化进程。日元在进口贸易结算中的占比从1970年的0.3%、1980年的2%上升到1990年的 14.5%,在出口贸易结算中的占比从1970年的0.9%、1980年的29%上升到1990年的37.5%。 但此后,日元国际化举步维艰。比对本世纪第一个十年日、美、英、德四国国际贸易本 ...
国际金融格局重塑与人民币新机遇
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-30 19:54
Core Viewpoint - The book "New Monetary Landscape" discusses the evolution of the international monetary system, the inherent contradictions of the current system, and the progress and lessons of RMB internationalization, proposing strategies to advance it [3][4]. Group 1: Historical Context and Lessons - The authors provide a detailed analysis of the rise of the US dollar and the decline of the British pound, emphasizing the historical significance of the Marshall and Dodge Plans in saving the Bretton Woods system and reinforcing the dollar's international status [3]. - The book highlights two critical steps in the dollar's internationalization: the entry of major US banks into foreign markets and the Federal Reserve's support for dollar-denominated commercial paper, leading to over 50% of US trade being settled in dollars by the 1920s [4]. Group 2: RMB Internationalization Strategies - The book argues that RMB internationalization must be grounded in China's domestic economy, maintaining monetary policy independence and macroeconomic stability [5]. - It suggests that cultivating and developing the RMB's pricing function is crucial, with practical paths including promoting RMB pricing through economic aid to African countries, addressing trade deficits with neighboring countries, and facilitating RMB transactions in commodity trading [5][6]. Group 3: Comparative Analysis and Challenges - The authors analyze Japan's failed yen internationalization efforts, attributing the failure to the inability to maintain a stable yen exchange rate, which diminished its international value [5]. - The book posits that the current international monetary system's sustainability hinges on whether peripheral countries will continue to purchase US debt, which is influenced by the US's growing external debt and trade deficits [6][8]. Group 4: Financial Cooperation and Regional Currency - The book advocates for regional monetary cooperation to promote domestic financial reform and open up, aiming to establish the RMB as a regional international currency in Asia [6]. - It emphasizes the dangers of financial liberalization combined with rigid exchange rates, suggesting that the interaction between RMB internationalization and capital account liberalization requires more detailed discussion [7]. Group 5: Global Reserve Asset Diversification - The authors note that diversification of reserve assets among US allies cannot effectively mitigate systemic risks, as demonstrated by the sanctions against Russia following the Ukraine conflict [8]. - They argue for a strategic shift towards a new development pattern that prioritizes domestic circulation while reducing asymmetries in dollar assets and liabilities [8].
没有轴心的世界(4)人民币不走日元老路
日经中文网· 2025-06-03 07:03
Core Points - The article discusses China's efforts to internationalize the Renminbi (RMB) and reduce reliance on the US dollar, particularly through the expansion of the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) and the promotion of the "Digital Silk Road" [1][2][4] - It highlights the historical context of Japan's failed yen internationalization in the 20th century and contrasts it with China's current strategies to avoid similar pitfalls [3][4] Group 1 - The meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet confirmed the expansion of RMB payment options in Cambodia and the integration of Cambodian banks into the CIPS [1] - CIPS, initiated by China in 2015, has seen a 30% increase in participating banks over the past three years, totaling 1,667 banks [2] - The global share of RMB as a payment currency has reached 4%, ranking second after the US dollar, with a 7% share in trade payments [2] Group 2 - The article emphasizes that Japan's reliance on the US dollar during its yen internationalization was a key reason for its failure, a lesson that China aims to learn from [4] - The Chinese government is actively promoting its payment systems abroad, with WeChat Pay now available in over 40 countries, including Kazakhstan [2] - The article suggests that China is taking a more assertive stance in its economic policies, potentially reducing its holdings of US Treasury bonds and dollar assets [4]