专题：新引擎新图景丨金融新启航 在即将开启的"十五五"时期，中国金融体系正站上新的历史关口。"加快建设金融强国"写入规划纲要， 大力发展金融"五篇大文章"，为新质生产力提供支撑、推动实体经济跃升。金融体系的发展重心正向更 高质量、更强韧性迈进。 在此背景下，新浪财经推出《金融新启航·新引擎新图景》专题系列，邀请金融业界专家和学者，围 绕"十五五"新周期下的金融变革展开前瞻性研讨。本期《金融新启航·新引擎新图景》对话中国（上 海）自贸区研究院（浦东改革与发展研究院）金融研究室主任刘斌。他指出，过去十年，全球90%以上 的央行都在探索央行数字货币，虽然各国节奏不一，但中国明显走在前面。在跨境支付领域，我们需要 一套能够自主可控、为我所用的体系，来支撑人民币国际化和国家战略。 刘斌表示，从"十四五"来看，人民币国际化的推进相对温和，但进入"十五五"，无论是外部环境还是内 部条件，都会带来更明显更利好的变化。 从外部环境看，弱美元可能会成为一个阶段性的趋势。在这一背景下，全球资金开始从美元资产向包括 人民币在内的其他资产分散配置，这客观上会带动对相关货币的需求。但更重要的是人民币资产本身吸 引力的提升，这两年无论是在 ...

产业观察 [table_Header]2025.12.26 【跨境支付跟踪】数字人民币驱动跨境支付升 产业研究中心 级，人民币国际化结构优化 摘要：数字人民币通过多轨支付与监管协同，提升跨境支付效率与可控性，推 动人民币国际化。 多轨支付体系构建由跨境监管、基础设施与区域合作协同演进。通过可 控匿名设计、名单制管理和交易追踪溯源，数字人民币实现了资金跨境流 向的实时监测与异常交易识别，并可在风险事件发生时快速定位资金路 径，这使其在保障高效结算的同时保持监管可控性，相较加密资产避免了 "效率与监管能力不可兼得"的困境。自主清算网络与多边试点合作有效 降低了对单一支付体系的依赖，提升了人民币在区域贸易和投资结算中 的抗风险能力。同时，多轨并行布局，包括传统银行体系、CIPS、数字人 民币及 CBDC Bridge 协同运行，使跨境交易网络更加灵活、高效，为人 民币国际化提供技术与制度双重保障。 风险提示：跨境监管与法律框架风险、基础设施与地缘风险。 | [Table_Authors] | 伍巍(分析师) | | --- | --- | | | 021-38031029 | | | wuwei6@gtht.com ...

Group 1 - The ongoing competition between the US and China resembles a boxing match, with both sides taking aggressive actions against each other, particularly in the high-tech sector [1] - The US has implemented policies to surround Chinese high-tech companies, prompting reactions from countries like the Netherlands, which attempted to acquire companies with significant operations in China [1] - China's countermeasures include strict controls on rare earth elements and lithium batteries, which are crucial for global high-tech industries [1] Group 2 - The US is facing internal challenges, with officials vocally discussing the potential expulsion of China from the SWIFT system, a move that could severely disrupt international banking and trade [2] - If China were to be excluded from SWIFT, it would likely lead to increased use of CIPS (China's Cross-Border Interbank Payment System) for international trade, although CIPS is not as widely adopted as SWIFT [2] - China's GDP is projected to exceed $1 trillion in 2024, and its manufacturing sector holds a critical position globally, which could influence trade dynamics if SWIFT is used against it [2] Group 3 - The increasing use of the Chinese yuan for international transactions, such as in Australian iron ore trades, could undermine the dollar's dominance if it extends to oil, grain, and other commodities [4] - A shift towards yuan-based transactions could lead to decreased demand for US Treasury bonds, negatively impacting the US economy [4] - The current instability of the dollar raises concerns about the potential consequences of extreme measures taken by the US against China [4] Group 4 - The ongoing US-China rivalry is characterized by a mutual reluctance to fully decouple, as both sides recognize the potential for significant losses [5] - China's resources, including rare earths, lithium batteries, and payment systems, provide it with leverage in this geopolitical struggle [5] - The extreme measures taken by the US could inadvertently accelerate China's self-reliance and economic independence [5]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is enhancing the cross-border payment system to facilitate international trade and investment, ensuring a robust payment infrastructure and strict regulation in the payment industry [1][4][7] Group 1: Cross-Border Payment System Development - The PBOC has established a multi-channel, widely covered, secure, and efficient cross-border payment clearing network, with the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) processing RMB 175 trillion in 2024, a 43% year-on-year increase [2][3] - As of September 2025, CIPS has connected over 1,700 domestic and foreign participants, reaching more than 5,000 legal banking institutions across 189 countries and regions [2][3][8] Group 2: Internationalization of the Renminbi - The Renminbi has become the largest settlement currency for China's external payments, the second-largest trade financing currency globally, and the third-largest payment currency, with a weight of 12.28% in the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket [7][9] - In the first half of 2025, the total cross-border RMB payment amount reached 35 trillion yuan, a 14% increase year-on-year, with RMB payments in goods trade accounting for 28% of total cross-border payments [7][9] Group 3: Bilateral Currency Swap Agreements - The PBOC has renewed bilateral currency swap agreements with multiple countries, including a 35 billion yuan agreement with Iceland and a 350 billion yuan agreement with the European Central Bank, aimed at enhancing bilateral financial cooperation [5][6][9] - The agreements facilitate liquidity and financial stability, allowing central banks to exchange currencies to support trade and investment [6][9]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Central Asia (Horgos) Commodity Trade Expo was held in Xinjiang, showcasing the importance of cross-border financial services in enhancing international economic and trade cooperation [1][2] Group 1: Event Overview - The expo featured three main thematic exhibition areas: investment cooperation, Chinese goods, and Central Asian goods, covering key sectors such as textiles, agricultural products, machinery, and cross-border logistics [1] - The event attracted numerous enterprises from various countries and regions, focusing on trade and investment cooperation between China and Central Asia [1] Group 2: Financial Services Provided - Industrial Bank's Urumqi branch established a dedicated financial service consultation area at the expo, offering professional financial information support in several key areas [2] - The services included interpretations of cross-border financial policies, market dynamics, and risk assessments specific to the Central Asian region [2] Group 3: Specialized Financial Solutions - The bank promoted diversified cross-border financial solutions tailored to different enterprises' needs, including cross-border settlement, trade financing, currency risk hedging, project financing, and cash management [2] - Additionally, the bank provided guidance on green finance and sustainable development in response to national carbon reduction goals and regional green development needs [2] Group 4: Strategic Importance - The bank's participation in the expo is seen as a significant move to support high-level opening-up, demonstrating its professional value and social responsibility as a mainstream commercial bank [2] - This initiative aims to strengthen financial connections and contribute to the establishment of an open regional economic framework, enhancing trade and financial flows between China and Central Asian countries [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the international status of the euro and the potential for the renminbi (RMB) to increase its international role, particularly in light of recent U.S. tariff policies that have altered the dynamics of global financial markets [2][10][21]. Euro's International Role - The euro's international status has remained stable in recent years, with some progress in areas like "reverse Yankee" bonds due to U.S. tariff policies, which have prompted investors to seek alternative currencies [2][7]. - The "International Role Composite Index" introduced in the Lagarde report measures a currency's role in international bonds, cross-border deposits, global foreign exchange reserves, and international settlements [6]. - The euro's share in official foreign exchange reserves has remained around 20% since 2015, while the RMB's share was 2.2% in 2024, down approximately 0.4 percentage points from 2022 [6][17]. Impact of U.S. Policies - U.S. tariff policies have created opportunities for the euro to enhance its international role by breaking the traditional negative correlation between U.S. stocks and bonds, leading investors to diversify into other currencies [10][11]. - The report emphasizes that for the euro to capitalize on these opportunities, Europe must eliminate internal financial market fragmentation and establish a unified capital market [11] . Challenges from Digital Currencies - The rise of cryptocurrencies poses challenges to the international monetary system, with the U.S. actively developing policies around digital assets that could affect global financial stability [13][14]. - The report calls for Europe to accelerate the development of a digital euro and improve cross-border payment systems to strengthen the euro's international position [14]. Geopolitical Influences - Geopolitical factors are increasingly seen as significant in shaping the international monetary system, with a notable rise in gold's share in foreign exchange reserves attributed to concerns over geopolitical risks [16]. - The report indicates that military power is linked to a currency's international status, suggesting that the euro lags behind the dollar partly due to the latter's geopolitical security backing [17][18]. Recommendations for RMB - The article suggests that China should leverage its economic position to enhance the RMB's international role without compromising financial security, focusing on practical measures rather than a formal internationalization roadmap [20][21]. - It emphasizes the importance of maintaining economic growth to bolster the RMB's international status, as perceptions of slowing growth could diminish its appeal [21].

Summary of the BRICS+ Payments System Conference Call Industry Overview - The document discusses the evolving payments system among BRICS+ countries, focusing on the de-dollarization efforts and the development of independent payment infrastructures separate from US and Western systems [2][4][11]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **De-dollarization Debate**: The debate on the US dollar's reserve currency status is intensifying due to geopolitical fragmentation and the use of financial sanctions by the US and its allies [2][4]. 2. **BRICS+ Payment Sovereignty**: BRICS+ countries are pursuing 'payments sovereignty' by developing independent payment infrastructures, which are at various stages of discussion and implementation [4][11]. 3. **Challenges to Alternative Systems**: Geopolitical factors and divergent national objectives among emerging market countries pose significant challenges to establishing an alternative payments system, rather than technical barriers [4][8]. 4. **Multi-CBDC Platform**: The potential for a multi-Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) platform is highlighted, with several BRICS+ countries advancing their domestic digital payment infrastructures [4][9]. 5. **Role of Multilateral Institutions**: Institutions like the AIIB and NDB are seen as foundational for an alternative international financial system, although they currently lack sufficient liquidity support mechanisms [4][11]. 6. **SWIFT and CHIPS**: The document emphasizes the importance of SWIFT and CHIPS in the current global payments architecture, with the dollar accounting for nearly half of all SWIFT transactions [27][31]. 7. **BRICS+ Leaders Summit**: The upcoming BRICS+ leaders summit in Rio de Janeiro is expected to focus on trade, investment, and finance, but no major announcements regarding de-dollarization are anticipated [11][50]. Additional Important Content 1. **Historical Context**: BRICS countries have long opposed the existing international financial architecture, advocating for greater representation of emerging economies [6][38]. 2. **Geopolitical Dimensions**: The geopolitical landscape, particularly following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, has intensified discussions around reducing reliance on the dollar [40][41]. 3. **Future Initiatives**: Various proposals for de-dollarization are being discussed, including a BRICS common currency and cross-border payment initiatives, though many remain in the proposal stage [51][54]. 4. **Political Will**: The main hurdle to establishing an alternative payments architecture is political will, as diverging objectives within BRICS+ countries complicate consensus [9][40]. 5. **US Response**: The US has expressed concern over BRICS+ de-dollarization efforts, with former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen emphasizing the importance of protecting the dollar [47][48]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the BRICS+ payments system and the ongoing efforts towards de-dollarization, highlighting both the challenges and potential pathways forward.

Group 1 - The article highlights the importance of weekly announcements from Sunday to Thursday regarding significant stock market events, including suspensions, increases or decreases in holdings, investment wins, acquisitions, earnings reports, unlocks, and high transfers, with key announcements marked in red to assist investors in identifying investment hotspots and preventing black swan events [1] - The company is currently laying out products related to solid-state batteries, indicating a strategic focus on this emerging technology [1] - The company provides information services such as CIPS and digital currency bridges to numerous banks, showcasing its involvement in digital currency, military applications, cross-border payments, cloud computing, blockchain, and low-altitude economy [1] - The company plans to restructure and acquire a computing power enterprise, indicating its expansion into cross-border e-commerce, computing power, and AI glasses [1]

Group 1: AI Industry - The AI industry has become a core focus for both China and the US, with accelerated implementation of AI technologies [2] - Domestic models have entered the global first tier, driven by high demand for reasoning models and multi-modal technologies [2] - AI revenue share for industry chain companies is expected to gradually increase due to the rising demand for tokens [2] Group 2: Cross-Border Payment - The cross-border payment industry is expected to experience a comprehensive acceleration due to the combination of supply-side clearing and demand-side warming [3] - New technologies and market scenarios are likely to open up growth opportunities in the payment industry [3] - The development of alternative payment systems like CIPS and currency bridges is anticipated to grow rapidly, benefiting third-party payment and bank IT-related companies [3] Group 3: Autonomous Driving and Domestic Production - Strong policy support for domestic production and intelligent driving is driving the acceleration of these emerging sectors [4] - The opening of road and airspace rights is facilitating the automation and intelligent reconstruction of industries like logistics [4] - The domestic production sector is expected to recover after a slowdown, supported by national policies and the need for supply chain security [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of global currency payments, highlighting the dominance of the US dollar, the challenges faced by the euro, and the recent decline of the renminbi in international payment rankings [3][5][20]. Group 1: US Dollar Dominance - The US dollar maintains a dominant position in global payments, accounting for 49.08% of the total, which is a new high in eight months [8]. - Despite calls for "de-dollarization," many countries continue to increase their dollar reserves, particularly for commodities like oil and grains [10]. - The dollar's stronghold is attributed to historical factors, including its establishment as the world's reserve currency post-World War II [10][12]. Group 2: Euro's Challenges - The euro holds the second position in global payments with a share of 22.24%, but this figure has been declining, indicating underlying economic issues within the Eurozone [14][18]. - Recent data shows a drop in the euro's payment share from 22.29% to 21.93%, raising concerns about its stability [18]. - Internal conflicts within the Eurozone, such as differing fiscal policies among member states, contribute to the euro's precarious position [16]. Group 3: Renminbi's Decline - The renminbi's share of global payments fell from 3.89% to 3.50%, dropping from fourth to fifth place behind the yen [20][30]. - Despite a reported 8% increase in exports, a significant 20% drop in exports to the US has negatively impacted renminbi settlements [22]. - The renminbi's international payment status is still unstable, with its risk-bearing capacity being questioned [22][24]. Group 4: Future of Currency Competition - The article suggests that the future of currency competition may not solely rely on traditional systems like SWIFT, as alternative payment networks and digital currencies are emerging [26][28]. - China's digital renminbi and other national payment systems could potentially bypass traditional frameworks, reshaping the global payment landscape [28]. - The ability to establish a new payment ecosystem will be crucial in determining which currency can dominate future transactions [28].