牌?大概也就是嘴上吓唬一下罢了。如果真的敢采取极 端手段,那么美 国自己首先会遭受损失,全 球的利 益就需要重新进行分配了。 中美之间的这场较量,越发像是一场拳击赛。当下已不再是以往那种慢悠悠你来我往的状态,直接就摆出 王炸与底牌相互对怼。在9月底的时候,美 国使出狠招,去包围中 国的高科技公司。美 方的政策一出台,老 铁荷兰就着急了。安世半导体因为控股关系差点被搞,荷兰便直接去"抢夺"那家公司。 没有人能够预料到这样的结果。这家公司有七成的产能位于中 国。超过一半以上的市场也是由中 国来 承担费用。你看这难道不就是自己找不自在?到了10月9号的时候,中 国不再容忍了。反制的举措一个接 着一个。大到锂电池、稀 土,小到港口费,就连高通的并购也要去查一查。特别是稀 土的管控,含量0.1% 都严格限 制。稀 土和锂电池已经成为联结全 球高科技的关键。你想不光国产手机芯片无法制造出来,就 连美 国的导 弹雷 达都得使用中 国的货品。有时候这样的针锋相对,比口头的争斗更让人心里不安稳。 要是美 方确实伤害了中 国,那么人 民币结算的比例就会不断攀升。澳洲的铁矿已经都在用人 民币来进 行交易。倘若有一天石油、粮食以及大 ...

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is enhancing the cross-border payment system to facilitate international trade and investment, ensuring a robust payment infrastructure and strict regulation in the payment industry [1][4][7] Group 1: Cross-Border Payment System Development - The PBOC has established a multi-channel, widely covered, secure, and efficient cross-border payment clearing network, with the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) processing RMB 175 trillion in 2024, a 43% year-on-year increase [2][3] - As of September 2025, CIPS has connected over 1,700 domestic and foreign participants, reaching more than 5,000 legal banking institutions across 189 countries and regions [2][3][8] Group 2: Internationalization of the Renminbi - The Renminbi has become the largest settlement currency for China's external payments, the second-largest trade financing currency globally, and the third-largest payment currency, with a weight of 12.28% in the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket [7][9] - In the first half of 2025, the total cross-border RMB payment amount reached 35 trillion yuan, a 14% increase year-on-year, with RMB payments in goods trade accounting for 28% of total cross-border payments [7][9] Group 3: Bilateral Currency Swap Agreements - The PBOC has renewed bilateral currency swap agreements with multiple countries, including a 35 billion yuan agreement with Iceland and a 350 billion yuan agreement with the European Central Bank, aimed at enhancing bilateral financial cooperation [5][6][9] - The agreements facilitate liquidity and financial stability, allowing central banks to exchange currencies to support trade and investment [6][9]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Central Asia (Horgos) Commodity Trade Expo was held in Xinjiang, showcasing the importance of cross-border financial services in enhancing international economic and trade cooperation [1][2] Group 1: Event Overview - The expo featured three main thematic exhibition areas: investment cooperation, Chinese goods, and Central Asian goods, covering key sectors such as textiles, agricultural products, machinery, and cross-border logistics [1] - The event attracted numerous enterprises from various countries and regions, focusing on trade and investment cooperation between China and Central Asia [1] Group 2: Financial Services Provided - Industrial Bank's Urumqi branch established a dedicated financial service consultation area at the expo, offering professional financial information support in several key areas [2] - The services included interpretations of cross-border financial policies, market dynamics, and risk assessments specific to the Central Asian region [2] Group 3: Specialized Financial Solutions - The bank promoted diversified cross-border financial solutions tailored to different enterprises' needs, including cross-border settlement, trade financing, currency risk hedging, project financing, and cash management [2] - Additionally, the bank provided guidance on green finance and sustainable development in response to national carbon reduction goals and regional green development needs [2] Group 4: Strategic Importance - The bank's participation in the expo is seen as a significant move to support high-level opening-up, demonstrating its professional value and social responsibility as a mainstream commercial bank [2] - This initiative aims to strengthen financial connections and contribute to the establishment of an open regional economic framework, enhancing trade and financial flows between China and Central Asian countries [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the international status of the euro and the potential for the renminbi (RMB) to increase its international role, particularly in light of recent U.S. tariff policies that have altered the dynamics of global financial markets [2][10][21]. Euro's International Role - The euro's international status has remained stable in recent years, with some progress in areas like "reverse Yankee" bonds due to U.S. tariff policies, which have prompted investors to seek alternative currencies [2][7]. - The "International Role Composite Index" introduced in the Lagarde report measures a currency's role in international bonds, cross-border deposits, global foreign exchange reserves, and international settlements [6]. - The euro's share in official foreign exchange reserves has remained around 20% since 2015, while the RMB's share was 2.2% in 2024, down approximately 0.4 percentage points from 2022 [6][17]. Impact of U.S. Policies - U.S. tariff policies have created opportunities for the euro to enhance its international role by breaking the traditional negative correlation between U.S. stocks and bonds, leading investors to diversify into other currencies [10][11]. - The report emphasizes that for the euro to capitalize on these opportunities, Europe must eliminate internal financial market fragmentation and establish a unified capital market [11] . Challenges from Digital Currencies - The rise of cryptocurrencies poses challenges to the international monetary system, with the U.S. actively developing policies around digital assets that could affect global financial stability [13][14]. - The report calls for Europe to accelerate the development of a digital euro and improve cross-border payment systems to strengthen the euro's international position [14]. Geopolitical Influences - Geopolitical factors are increasingly seen as significant in shaping the international monetary system, with a notable rise in gold's share in foreign exchange reserves attributed to concerns over geopolitical risks [16]. - The report indicates that military power is linked to a currency's international status, suggesting that the euro lags behind the dollar partly due to the latter's geopolitical security backing [17][18]. Recommendations for RMB - The article suggests that China should leverage its economic position to enhance the RMB's international role without compromising financial security, focusing on practical measures rather than a formal internationalization roadmap [20][21]. - It emphasizes the importance of maintaining economic growth to bolster the RMB's international status, as perceptions of slowing growth could diminish its appeal [21].

Summary of the BRICS+ Payments System Conference Call Industry Overview - The document discusses the evolving payments system among BRICS+ countries, focusing on the de-dollarization efforts and the development of independent payment infrastructures separate from US and Western systems [2][4][11]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **De-dollarization Debate**: The debate on the US dollar's reserve currency status is intensifying due to geopolitical fragmentation and the use of financial sanctions by the US and its allies [2][4]. 2. **BRICS+ Payment Sovereignty**: BRICS+ countries are pursuing 'payments sovereignty' by developing independent payment infrastructures, which are at various stages of discussion and implementation [4][11]. 3. **Challenges to Alternative Systems**: Geopolitical factors and divergent national objectives among emerging market countries pose significant challenges to establishing an alternative payments system, rather than technical barriers [4][8]. 4. **Multi-CBDC Platform**: The potential for a multi-Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) platform is highlighted, with several BRICS+ countries advancing their domestic digital payment infrastructures [4][9]. 5. **Role of Multilateral Institutions**: Institutions like the AIIB and NDB are seen as foundational for an alternative international financial system, although they currently lack sufficient liquidity support mechanisms [4][11]. 6. **SWIFT and CHIPS**: The document emphasizes the importance of SWIFT and CHIPS in the current global payments architecture, with the dollar accounting for nearly half of all SWIFT transactions [27][31]. 7. **BRICS+ Leaders Summit**: The upcoming BRICS+ leaders summit in Rio de Janeiro is expected to focus on trade, investment, and finance, but no major announcements regarding de-dollarization are anticipated [11][50]. Additional Important Content 1. **Historical Context**: BRICS countries have long opposed the existing international financial architecture, advocating for greater representation of emerging economies [6][38]. 2. **Geopolitical Dimensions**: The geopolitical landscape, particularly following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, has intensified discussions around reducing reliance on the dollar [40][41]. 3. **Future Initiatives**: Various proposals for de-dollarization are being discussed, including a BRICS common currency and cross-border payment initiatives, though many remain in the proposal stage [51][54]. 4. **Political Will**: The main hurdle to establishing an alternative payments architecture is political will, as diverging objectives within BRICS+ countries complicate consensus [9][40]. 5. **US Response**: The US has expressed concern over BRICS+ de-dollarization efforts, with former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen emphasizing the importance of protecting the dollar [47][48]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the BRICS+ payments system and the ongoing efforts towards de-dollarization, highlighting both the challenges and potential pathways forward.

Group 1 - The article highlights the importance of weekly announcements from Sunday to Thursday regarding significant stock market events, including suspensions, increases or decreases in holdings, investment wins, acquisitions, earnings reports, unlocks, and high transfers, with key announcements marked in red to assist investors in identifying investment hotspots and preventing black swan events [1] - The company is currently laying out products related to solid-state batteries, indicating a strategic focus on this emerging technology [1] - The company provides information services such as CIPS and digital currency bridges to numerous banks, showcasing its involvement in digital currency, military applications, cross-border payments, cloud computing, blockchain, and low-altitude economy [1] - The company plans to restructure and acquire a computing power enterprise, indicating its expansion into cross-border e-commerce, computing power, and AI glasses [1]

Group 1: AI Industry - The AI industry has become a core focus for both China and the US, with accelerated implementation of AI technologies [2] - Domestic models have entered the global first tier, driven by high demand for reasoning models and multi-modal technologies [2] - AI revenue share for industry chain companies is expected to gradually increase due to the rising demand for tokens [2] Group 2: Cross-Border Payment - The cross-border payment industry is expected to experience a comprehensive acceleration due to the combination of supply-side clearing and demand-side warming [3] - New technologies and market scenarios are likely to open up growth opportunities in the payment industry [3] - The development of alternative payment systems like CIPS and currency bridges is anticipated to grow rapidly, benefiting third-party payment and bank IT-related companies [3] Group 3: Autonomous Driving and Domestic Production - Strong policy support for domestic production and intelligent driving is driving the acceleration of these emerging sectors [4] - The opening of road and airspace rights is facilitating the automation and intelligent reconstruction of industries like logistics [4] - The domestic production sector is expected to recover after a slowdown, supported by national policies and the need for supply chain security [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of global currency payments, highlighting the dominance of the US dollar, the challenges faced by the euro, and the recent decline of the renminbi in international payment rankings [3][5][20]. Group 1: US Dollar Dominance - The US dollar maintains a dominant position in global payments, accounting for 49.08% of the total, which is a new high in eight months [8]. - Despite calls for "de-dollarization," many countries continue to increase their dollar reserves, particularly for commodities like oil and grains [10]. - The dollar's stronghold is attributed to historical factors, including its establishment as the world's reserve currency post-World War II [10][12]. Group 2: Euro's Challenges - The euro holds the second position in global payments with a share of 22.24%, but this figure has been declining, indicating underlying economic issues within the Eurozone [14][18]. - Recent data shows a drop in the euro's payment share from 22.29% to 21.93%, raising concerns about its stability [18]. - Internal conflicts within the Eurozone, such as differing fiscal policies among member states, contribute to the euro's precarious position [16]. Group 3: Renminbi's Decline - The renminbi's share of global payments fell from 3.89% to 3.50%, dropping from fourth to fifth place behind the yen [20][30]. - Despite a reported 8% increase in exports, a significant 20% drop in exports to the US has negatively impacted renminbi settlements [22]. - The renminbi's international payment status is still unstable, with its risk-bearing capacity being questioned [22][24]. Group 4: Future of Currency Competition - The article suggests that the future of currency competition may not solely rely on traditional systems like SWIFT, as alternative payment networks and digital currencies are emerging [26][28]. - China's digital renminbi and other national payment systems could potentially bypass traditional frameworks, reshaping the global payment landscape [28]. - The ability to establish a new payment ecosystem will be crucial in determining which currency can dominate future transactions [28].

Core Points - The article discusses China's efforts to internationalize the Renminbi (RMB) and reduce reliance on the US dollar, particularly through the expansion of the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) and the promotion of the "Digital Silk Road" [1][2][4] - It highlights the historical context of Japan's failed yen internationalization in the 20th century and contrasts it with China's current strategies to avoid similar pitfalls [3][4] Group 1 - The meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet confirmed the expansion of RMB payment options in Cambodia and the integration of Cambodian banks into the CIPS [1] - CIPS, initiated by China in 2015, has seen a 30% increase in participating banks over the past three years, totaling 1,667 banks [2] - The global share of RMB as a payment currency has reached 4%, ranking second after the US dollar, with a 7% share in trade payments [2] Group 2 - The article emphasizes that Japan's reliance on the US dollar during its yen internationalization was a key reason for its failure, a lesson that China aims to learn from [4] - The Chinese government is actively promoting its payment systems abroad, with WeChat Pay now available in over 40 countries, including Kazakhstan [2] - The article suggests that China is taking a more assertive stance in its economic policies, potentially reducing its holdings of US Treasury bonds and dollar assets [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the computer industry is "Strongly Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant increase of 43% in CIPS transactions, indicating an acceleration in the internationalization of the Renminbi [1][22]. - The cross-border digital payment industry is experiencing continuous growth, with the market size reaching 7.5 trillion RMB in 2024 [22][24]. - The integration of CIPS and digital RMB is transforming the cross-border payment landscape, with digital RMB trials expanding to 129 countries and regions [22][24]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Cross-Border Payment System - CIPS + Digital RMB - CIPS is a wholesale payment system dedicated to Renminbi cross-border payment and settlement, aimed at enhancing efficiency and security in cross-border transactions [7][9]. - Digital RMB, issued by the People's Bank of China, is a legal digital currency that supports various payment scenarios and is equivalent to physical cash [11]. Section 2: CIPS Growth and Globalization of Renminbi - The cross-border digital payment industry is projected to grow significantly, with CIPS processing 821.69 million transactions worth 175.49 trillion RMB in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 42.60% [22][24]. - The demand for cross-border payments is surging due to the rise of e-commerce platforms and the "Belt and Road" initiative, which enhances payment needs in emerging markets [24][26]. Section 3: Investment Opportunities in Technology and Applications - Investment opportunities are identified in the underlying technologies for digital RMB, including blockchain and smart contracts, which are crucial for its implementation [36]. - The report emphasizes the need for hardware upgrades to support digital RMB transactions, with companies like Guangdian Yuntong and Lakala poised to benefit from this demand [36][39]. - The digital RMB's programmability offers innovative solutions for supply chain finance and cross-border trade, with companies like Yuxin Technology and Changliang Technology expected to take on more customized projects [36][39]. Section 4: Target Identification - The report outlines potential investment targets related to digital RMB and CIPS, focusing on companies that are positioned to benefit from the growth of cross-border payment systems and digital currency applications [48].