[赞]全球支付市场，表面风平浪静，实则暗流汹涌，最新数据显示，美元虽仍是老大，占比46.94%，但 已有松动迹象。 欧元稳中有升，回到25.6%的份额，而人民币却在SWIFT系统中连续4个月跌破3%，8月仅录得2.93%。 一时间，有人担忧人民币国际化是否受阻，也有人质疑数据背后的真相，而实际上，这场货币格局的变 迁远比数字复杂。 美霸权依旧 美元至今仍是全球支付体系中无可争议的第一货币，接近一半的份额让它牢牢掌握着话语权。 然而，近年来这一基础正在受到侵蚀，美国频繁将SWIFT系统武器化，动辄将不顺从的国家踢出系统， 导致诸多经济体开始寻求替代方案。 此外，美元汇率波动加剧，2025年上半年显著贬值，让贸易伙伴们不得不重新考量结算货币的选择。 更关键的是，全球经济格局正从单极向多极演变，新兴市场崛起，区域贸易协定增多，许多国家开始尝 试本币结算或区域货币合作。 美元虽然仍是避险首选，但那种"唯我独尊"的绝对优势，正在被一点点稀释。 欧元滑落 但细看趋势，其地位并非铁板一块。今年8月，美元支付占比为46.94%，相比数月前接近50%的高点已 有回落。尤其在过去五个月，美元份额下降2.74个百分点，虽幅度不大， ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" period marks a significant historical juncture for China's financial system, emphasizing the construction of a financial powerhouse and the development of high-quality financial infrastructure to support the real economy [1][20]. Group 1: Digital Currency and Cross-Border Payment - Over 90% of central banks globally have been exploring Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) in the past decade, with China leading the way since 2014 [6][25]. - The digital yuan pilot has expanded to cover 26 regions across 17 provinces, with cumulative transaction amounts reaching 7.3 trillion yuan by July 2024 and projected to reach 14.2 trillion yuan by September 2025 [6][25]. - The "Digital Currency Bridge" (m-Bridge) is highlighted as a significant platform for cross-border applications of the digital yuan, showcasing China's advancements in this area [6][26]. Group 2: RMB Internationalization - The internationalization of the RMB has been relatively moderate during the "14th Five-Year Plan," but the "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to bring more favorable changes due to external and internal conditions [1][21]. - A weakening US dollar may create a temporary trend that encourages global funds to diversify into assets including the RMB, thereby increasing demand for related currencies [21][33]. - The attractiveness of RMB assets has risen significantly in sectors like technology, new energy, and manufacturing, which is crucial for the internationalization of the RMB [21][33]. Group 3: Financial Infrastructure and Policy Support - China is building its financial infrastructure, such as the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), to support the internationalization of the RMB and national strategies [7][26]. - The country's proactive policies, including bilateral currency swap arrangements with multiple central banks, provide foundational conditions for the overseas use of the RMB [34]. - Expanding the scenarios for RMB pricing and settlement in commodities and energy trade is expected to significantly promote RMB internationalization [34]. Group 4: Challenges and Future Outlook - The digital yuan's classification as M0 and its non-interest-bearing nature may hinder commercial banks' enthusiasm for participation, necessitating adjustments in promotion mechanisms [36]. - The development of a robust domestic ecosystem for the digital yuan is essential for its successful cross-border application, as a lack of investment opportunities may deter foreign entities from using RMB for settlement [36][38]. - The internationalization of the RMB is a complex process that requires a balance between micro-level asset availability and macro-level capital flow management [37].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook on the cross-border payment industry driven by the digital renminbi, suggesting an upgrade in the investment rating for the sector [1]. Core Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is promoting the internationalization of the renminbi in conjunction with the digital renminbi, marking a transition from "scale expansion" to "structural upgrade" in the internationalization process [4][7]. - The digital renminbi enhances cross-border payment efficiency and regulatory control, providing a dual engine for the internationalization of the renminbi [4][7]. - The report emphasizes the establishment of a multi-track payment system that integrates cross-border regulation, infrastructure, and regional cooperation, which is crucial for the evolution of the digital renminbi [2][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Dual-Engine Framework Established - The PBOC has identified the steady development of the renminbi and digital renminbi as a core task for high-level financial openness, emphasizing a "dual-engine" strategy to enhance the international status of the renminbi [7]. - The cross-border payment system is being expanded, with a focus on the CIPS (Cross-Border Interbank Payment System) to better serve international trade and investment [7][9]. - The digital renminbi is positioned as a key driver for cross-border payments, particularly in small and frequent transaction scenarios, offering advantages such as decentralization, real-time settlement, and lower costs [7][9]. 2. Multi-Track Payment System Development - The multi-track payment system is evolving through cross-border regulation, infrastructure, and regional cooperation, which is essential for the digital renminbi's acceptance in international markets [2][19]. - The CIPS has expanded its reach, with 1,757 participants across 124 countries and regions, enhancing the renminbi's usability and stability in international transactions [9][10]. - The digital renminbi's design allows for real-time monitoring of cross-border fund flows, ensuring regulatory compliance while maintaining transaction efficiency [19][22]. 3. Infrastructure as Core Support for Internationalization - The CIPS serves as the backbone of the renminbi's internationalization, with a significant increase in participants since its launch in 2015, creating a robust institutional foundation for cross-border usage [9][10]. - The report highlights the comparative advantages of the CIPS over traditional systems like SWIFT, particularly in terms of transaction speed and cost efficiency [14][15]. - The digital renminbi's point-to-point settlement mechanism allows for near-instantaneous transactions, making it particularly suitable for small, high-frequency payments [15][16].

Group 1 - The ongoing competition between the US and China resembles a boxing match, with both sides taking aggressive actions against each other, particularly in the high-tech sector [1] - The US has implemented policies to surround Chinese high-tech companies, prompting reactions from countries like the Netherlands, which attempted to acquire companies with significant operations in China [1] - China's countermeasures include strict controls on rare earth elements and lithium batteries, which are crucial for global high-tech industries [1] Group 2 - The US is facing internal challenges, with officials vocally discussing the potential expulsion of China from the SWIFT system, a move that could severely disrupt international banking and trade [2] - If China were to be excluded from SWIFT, it would likely lead to increased use of CIPS (China's Cross-Border Interbank Payment System) for international trade, although CIPS is not as widely adopted as SWIFT [2] - China's GDP is projected to exceed $1 trillion in 2024, and its manufacturing sector holds a critical position globally, which could influence trade dynamics if SWIFT is used against it [2] Group 3 - The increasing use of the Chinese yuan for international transactions, such as in Australian iron ore trades, could undermine the dollar's dominance if it extends to oil, grain, and other commodities [4] - A shift towards yuan-based transactions could lead to decreased demand for US Treasury bonds, negatively impacting the US economy [4] - The current instability of the dollar raises concerns about the potential consequences of extreme measures taken by the US against China [4] Group 4 - The ongoing US-China rivalry is characterized by a mutual reluctance to fully decouple, as both sides recognize the potential for significant losses [5] - China's resources, including rare earths, lithium batteries, and payment systems, provide it with leverage in this geopolitical struggle [5] - The extreme measures taken by the US could inadvertently accelerate China's self-reliance and economic independence [5]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is enhancing the cross-border payment system to facilitate international trade and investment, ensuring a robust payment infrastructure and strict regulation in the payment industry [1][4][7] Group 1: Cross-Border Payment System Development - The PBOC has established a multi-channel, widely covered, secure, and efficient cross-border payment clearing network, with the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) processing RMB 175 trillion in 2024, a 43% year-on-year increase [2][3] - As of September 2025, CIPS has connected over 1,700 domestic and foreign participants, reaching more than 5,000 legal banking institutions across 189 countries and regions [2][3][8] Group 2: Internationalization of the Renminbi - The Renminbi has become the largest settlement currency for China's external payments, the second-largest trade financing currency globally, and the third-largest payment currency, with a weight of 12.28% in the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket [7][9] - In the first half of 2025, the total cross-border RMB payment amount reached 35 trillion yuan, a 14% increase year-on-year, with RMB payments in goods trade accounting for 28% of total cross-border payments [7][9] Group 3: Bilateral Currency Swap Agreements - The PBOC has renewed bilateral currency swap agreements with multiple countries, including a 35 billion yuan agreement with Iceland and a 350 billion yuan agreement with the European Central Bank, aimed at enhancing bilateral financial cooperation [5][6][9] - The agreements facilitate liquidity and financial stability, allowing central banks to exchange currencies to support trade and investment [6][9]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Central Asia (Horgos) Commodity Trade Expo was held in Xinjiang, showcasing the importance of cross-border financial services in enhancing international economic and trade cooperation [1][2] Group 1: Event Overview - The expo featured three main thematic exhibition areas: investment cooperation, Chinese goods, and Central Asian goods, covering key sectors such as textiles, agricultural products, machinery, and cross-border logistics [1] - The event attracted numerous enterprises from various countries and regions, focusing on trade and investment cooperation between China and Central Asia [1] Group 2: Financial Services Provided - Industrial Bank's Urumqi branch established a dedicated financial service consultation area at the expo, offering professional financial information support in several key areas [2] - The services included interpretations of cross-border financial policies, market dynamics, and risk assessments specific to the Central Asian region [2] Group 3: Specialized Financial Solutions - The bank promoted diversified cross-border financial solutions tailored to different enterprises' needs, including cross-border settlement, trade financing, currency risk hedging, project financing, and cash management [2] - Additionally, the bank provided guidance on green finance and sustainable development in response to national carbon reduction goals and regional green development needs [2] Group 4: Strategic Importance - The bank's participation in the expo is seen as a significant move to support high-level opening-up, demonstrating its professional value and social responsibility as a mainstream commercial bank [2] - This initiative aims to strengthen financial connections and contribute to the establishment of an open regional economic framework, enhancing trade and financial flows between China and Central Asian countries [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the international status of the euro and the potential for the renminbi (RMB) to increase its international role, particularly in light of recent U.S. tariff policies that have altered the dynamics of global financial markets [2][10][21]. Euro's International Role - The euro's international status has remained stable in recent years, with some progress in areas like "reverse Yankee" bonds due to U.S. tariff policies, which have prompted investors to seek alternative currencies [2][7]. - The "International Role Composite Index" introduced in the Lagarde report measures a currency's role in international bonds, cross-border deposits, global foreign exchange reserves, and international settlements [6]. - The euro's share in official foreign exchange reserves has remained around 20% since 2015, while the RMB's share was 2.2% in 2024, down approximately 0.4 percentage points from 2022 [6][17]. Impact of U.S. Policies - U.S. tariff policies have created opportunities for the euro to enhance its international role by breaking the traditional negative correlation between U.S. stocks and bonds, leading investors to diversify into other currencies [10][11]. - The report emphasizes that for the euro to capitalize on these opportunities, Europe must eliminate internal financial market fragmentation and establish a unified capital market [11] . Challenges from Digital Currencies - The rise of cryptocurrencies poses challenges to the international monetary system, with the U.S. actively developing policies around digital assets that could affect global financial stability [13][14]. - The report calls for Europe to accelerate the development of a digital euro and improve cross-border payment systems to strengthen the euro's international position [14]. Geopolitical Influences - Geopolitical factors are increasingly seen as significant in shaping the international monetary system, with a notable rise in gold's share in foreign exchange reserves attributed to concerns over geopolitical risks [16]. - The report indicates that military power is linked to a currency's international status, suggesting that the euro lags behind the dollar partly due to the latter's geopolitical security backing [17][18]. Recommendations for RMB - The article suggests that China should leverage its economic position to enhance the RMB's international role without compromising financial security, focusing on practical measures rather than a formal internationalization roadmap [20][21]. - It emphasizes the importance of maintaining economic growth to bolster the RMB's international status, as perceptions of slowing growth could diminish its appeal [21].

Summary of the BRICS+ Payments System Conference Call Industry Overview - The document discusses the evolving payments system among BRICS+ countries, focusing on the de-dollarization efforts and the development of independent payment infrastructures separate from US and Western systems [2][4][11]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **De-dollarization Debate**: The debate on the US dollar's reserve currency status is intensifying due to geopolitical fragmentation and the use of financial sanctions by the US and its allies [2][4]. 2. **BRICS+ Payment Sovereignty**: BRICS+ countries are pursuing 'payments sovereignty' by developing independent payment infrastructures, which are at various stages of discussion and implementation [4][11]. 3. **Challenges to Alternative Systems**: Geopolitical factors and divergent national objectives among emerging market countries pose significant challenges to establishing an alternative payments system, rather than technical barriers [4][8]. 4. **Multi-CBDC Platform**: The potential for a multi-Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) platform is highlighted, with several BRICS+ countries advancing their domestic digital payment infrastructures [4][9]. 5. **Role of Multilateral Institutions**: Institutions like the AIIB and NDB are seen as foundational for an alternative international financial system, although they currently lack sufficient liquidity support mechanisms [4][11]. 6. **SWIFT and CHIPS**: The document emphasizes the importance of SWIFT and CHIPS in the current global payments architecture, with the dollar accounting for nearly half of all SWIFT transactions [27][31]. 7. **BRICS+ Leaders Summit**: The upcoming BRICS+ leaders summit in Rio de Janeiro is expected to focus on trade, investment, and finance, but no major announcements regarding de-dollarization are anticipated [11][50]. Additional Important Content 1. **Historical Context**: BRICS countries have long opposed the existing international financial architecture, advocating for greater representation of emerging economies [6][38]. 2. **Geopolitical Dimensions**: The geopolitical landscape, particularly following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, has intensified discussions around reducing reliance on the dollar [40][41]. 3. **Future Initiatives**: Various proposals for de-dollarization are being discussed, including a BRICS common currency and cross-border payment initiatives, though many remain in the proposal stage [51][54]. 4. **Political Will**: The main hurdle to establishing an alternative payments architecture is political will, as diverging objectives within BRICS+ countries complicate consensus [9][40]. 5. **US Response**: The US has expressed concern over BRICS+ de-dollarization efforts, with former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen emphasizing the importance of protecting the dollar [47][48]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the BRICS+ payments system and the ongoing efforts towards de-dollarization, highlighting both the challenges and potential pathways forward.

Group 1 - The article highlights the importance of weekly announcements from Sunday to Thursday regarding significant stock market events, including suspensions, increases or decreases in holdings, investment wins, acquisitions, earnings reports, unlocks, and high transfers, with key announcements marked in red to assist investors in identifying investment hotspots and preventing black swan events [1] - The company is currently laying out products related to solid-state batteries, indicating a strategic focus on this emerging technology [1] - The company provides information services such as CIPS and digital currency bridges to numerous banks, showcasing its involvement in digital currency, military applications, cross-border payments, cloud computing, blockchain, and low-altitude economy [1] - The company plans to restructure and acquire a computing power enterprise, indicating its expansion into cross-border e-commerce, computing power, and AI glasses [1]

Group 1: AI Industry - The AI industry has become a core focus for both China and the US, with accelerated implementation of AI technologies [2] - Domestic models have entered the global first tier, driven by high demand for reasoning models and multi-modal technologies [2] - AI revenue share for industry chain companies is expected to gradually increase due to the rising demand for tokens [2] Group 2: Cross-Border Payment - The cross-border payment industry is expected to experience a comprehensive acceleration due to the combination of supply-side clearing and demand-side warming [3] - New technologies and market scenarios are likely to open up growth opportunities in the payment industry [3] - The development of alternative payment systems like CIPS and currency bridges is anticipated to grow rapidly, benefiting third-party payment and bank IT-related companies [3] Group 3: Autonomous Driving and Domestic Production - Strong policy support for domestic production and intelligent driving is driving the acceleration of these emerging sectors [4] - The opening of road and airspace rights is facilitating the automation and intelligent reconstruction of industries like logistics [4] - The domestic production sector is expected to recover after a slowdown, supported by national policies and the need for supply chain security [4]