注：黄金价格逼近4000美元/盎司 很多人把金价飙升，归因于美国通胀重新抬头。但如果仔细看数据，这个解释并不成立。美国的10年期通胀预期（即TIPS盈亏平衡率）自今年6月以来反而 略有下降，从2.4%降到约2.2%。 真正下降的，是 实际利率 。10年期TIPS收益率从2.2%掉到1.8%，投资者拿着美元债的"真实报酬"，被通胀侵蚀了一 截。按照历史经验，黄金和实际利率之间存在显著负相关： 当实际利率下降时，黄金上涨 。简单来说，当政府债券的利息追不上通胀时，黄金就成了更具 吸引力的"无息资产"。这条逻辑虽然古老，却依然好用【1】。 最近几个月，黄金的表现让人目瞪口呆。价格一度逼近 每盎司4000美元 ，创下有史以来的新高。如果算上过去一年的涨幅，黄金的回报超过了50%。 在过去半个世纪的历史里，只有上世纪七十年代和2008年金融危机时出现过类似的涨势。问题是，这一次并没有战争、也没有通胀失控，股市照样创新 高，经济也没有衰退。那为什么全世界的人，突然又开始抢金条了？ 很多人把黄金称为"避险资产"，但这个词其实挺有意思。所谓"避险"，意味着市场上有可以躲的地方。而当连货币本身都成了风险的一部分时，避险就变 成 ...

钱被按下了暂停键 很多人对"央行在印钱"的焦虑，来自日常感受的错位：商场里标签没怎么变、菜市场的秤还是那副脾气，工资每月按时到账，似乎并没有"钱泛滥"的迹象。 他注意到，在现代货币体系里，新钱常常先卡在金融机构的账面，像水库闸门背后的水，尚未冲进街巷。资产市场对资金最敏感——股票、房子、债券会先 被托起来，肉蛋菜的CPI却不一定马上动，这种传导差异，让"印钱"看起来像悄无声息的暗流。 这背后不是随意摁下印钞按钮的任性，而是有章法的资产交换。现代央行"造钱"的每一步，都有对应的资产做托底，不同渠道带来不同的力度与侧影，像三 条并行的水渠，既能灌田，也能就地蓄水。 三条"有抵押"的造币路 比较这三条渠道，能看清"钱从哪来"。 第一条是外汇进来的钱。假设一家做奶茶的小公司收到10万美元的海外订单，老板去银行换成人民币，按7:1的汇率，账户上多了70万元。商业银行攒下的 美元不是躺着，它会流向银行间市场，央行在那儿当接盘者，买入这笔外汇，变成国家的外汇储备，同时投放等额的基础货币。这一投一收是一体的：央行 的资产端多了外汇储备，负债端多了商业银行的准备金。长期卖出的东西比买得多、外汇净流入时，央行的基础货币也就被动多 ...

"印钱"本质是央行通过特定方式增加货币供应量，网上常说央行"印钱"，有人担心货币贬值，但普通人日常感知不明显。 以"xx奶茶"为例，其接到10万美元海外订单，需将美元兑换为人民币用于国内开支。商业银行收下10万美元，按7:1汇率向其账户发放70万元人民币。商业 银行积累一定外汇后，会在银行间外汇市场交易，央行作为最终买方买入外汇、形成外汇储备，同时向市场投放对应金额的基础货币。 这些新钱究竟如何产生、又流向何处？理解这一过程需拆解现代货币体系逻辑。 不妨做个假设：你穿越到古代成为皇帝，刚上任就遇敌军攻城，召集群臣却被告知"钱不够"。你提出"印钱"，大臣们却满脸困惑——古代货币无法凭空创 造，即便有纸币，也需金银作为背书，这就是"金本位"。 1971年布雷顿森林体系瓦解，美元与黄金彻底脱钩，全球货币陆续放弃金本位，转而依靠国家信用支撑。此后，货币供应量不再受金矿储量限制，央行可通 过外汇、债务等资产发行基础货币，再由商业银行进一步创造货币，形成广义货币（M2）。 央行"无中生有"创造货币，主要有三种核心方式： 从资产负债表看，央行资产端增加"外汇储备10万美元"，负债端增加"基础货币70万元"。这种通过买入外汇 ...

在此之前，英国是世界霸主，英镑是世界货币，在美元Vs英镑的世界货币大战中，英国派出凯恩斯坐镇，美国派 出犹太裔的财政部助理部长哈里.怀特，推出将美元与黄金挂钩，确立多边经济制度，击败了凯恩斯，美元代替英 镑，成了世界货币，从此全世界贸易的每一笔交易都会有一部分利润，通过美元体系流入美国，但美元体系却掌 握在犹太资本手里。 美国之所以取得独立战争胜利，其经济来源主要是由欧洲共济会犹太财团提供的，当年不止华盛顿是共济会员， 签署独立宣言的56人中，有52名为共济会员，美国的政府完全被共济会掌握，他们达成协议，盎撒人主管军政， 犹太财团主管经济和媒体。 1931年，沃伯格家族和罗斯柴尔德家族共同发起创办了私人性质的美联储，作为美国的中央银行，美联储的所有 股东都是犹太家族，美元不属美国，美国政府在美联储也没有股份，政府也没有货币发行权，也没有金融资产和 金融政策的决定权，美国总统只是美联储在金融政策的一个代理执行人。 美国前总统拜登在几十年前曾说，中东如果没有以色列，美国会打造一个以色列。美国全力支持以色列，不光是 为了保障美国在中东的霸权地位，还有以下原因。 从历史发展到今天，美国在政治、资本、媒体舆论等方面被犹 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global central bank reserve structure is undergoing a significant transformation, with gold surpassing U.S. Treasury bonds for the first time since 1996, marking gold's ascendance as a primary reserve asset [1][2]. Group 1: Central Bank Gold Reserves - China's central bank has increased its gold reserves for ten consecutive months, reaching 7.402 million ounces (approximately 2302.28 tons) by the end of August, with a month-on-month increase of 6,000 ounces (about 1.86 tons) [1]. - As of the end of August, China's gold reserve value rose by $9.858 billion to $253.843 billion, with gold reserves accounting for 7.64% of total foreign exchange reserves, a historical high [1]. - A survey by the World Gold Council indicates that over 95% of central banks expect to continue increasing gold reserves in the next 12 months, the highest percentage since the survey began in 2019, up 17 percentage points from the previous year [2]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Central Bank Behavior - Three main factors are reshaping central bank asset allocation: the deepening cracks in the dollar-centric international monetary system, high U.S. debt levels undermining dollar credibility, and the restructuring of global order prompting central banks to accumulate gold to mitigate political risks [2][3]. - The freezing of Russian reserve assets has accelerated gold accumulation among central banks, with Russia leading this trend [3]. - The U.S. federal government debt is projected to reach 124.3% of GDP by the end of 2024, leading to a decline in the ability to service debt, prompting other countries to reduce dollar assets in favor of gold [3]. Group 3: Structural Changes in Reserve Strategies - A structural shift in central bank gold reserve strategies is evident, with 59% of central banks opting to store gold domestically, an increase of 18 percentage points from 2024 [4]. - 73% of central banks anticipate a decline in the share of U.S. dollar reserves over the next five years, while the shares of the euro, renminbi, and gold are expected to rise [4].

Core Insights - The global central bank reserve landscape is undergoing a significant transformation, with gold surpassing U.S. Treasury bonds for the first time since 1996 in terms of reserve composition, marking a milestone for gold as a reserve asset [1] - China's central bank has increased its gold reserves for ten consecutive months, reaching 7.402 million ounces (approximately 2302.28 tons) by the end of August, with a reserve value increase of $9.858 billion to $253.843 billion, representing a historical high of 7.64% of total foreign reserves [1][2] - A recent survey by the World Gold Council indicates that 95% of central banks expect to continue increasing their gold reserves in the next 12 months, the highest level since the survey began in 2019, with 43% planning to add to their gold holdings despite rising gold prices [2] Group 1: Factors Influencing Central Bank Gold Purchases - The deepening cracks in the U.S.-centric international monetary system, highlighted by the freezing of Russian reserve assets, have prompted central banks to accelerate gold accumulation as a direct response [3] - The high level of U.S. government debt, projected to reach 124.3% of GDP by the end of 2024, undermines the credibility of the dollar, leading other countries to reduce dollar assets in favor of gold as a safer, inflation-resistant alternative [3] - The restructuring of the global order and increased political risks have led central banks, especially in emerging markets, to prefer gold over dollar assets to hedge against potential structural risks in the dollar system [4] Group 2: Changes in Central Bank Reserve Strategies - A structural shift in central bank gold reserve strategies is evident, with 59% of central banks opting to store gold domestically, an increase of 18 percentage points from 2024 [4] - 73% of central banks anticipate a decline in the share of dollar reserves over the next five years, while the shares of the euro, renminbi, and gold are expected to rise [4]

Core Viewpoint - The presence of 600 tons of China's official gold reserves in the United States is a complex issue influenced by historical, practical, and strategic considerations rather than mere risk [1][10][16]. Historical Context - The arrangement for China to store gold in the U.S. dates back to the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944, which established the dollar's link to gold, making the dollar the hard currency for international trade [3][10]. - This practice has continued for decades, becoming a norm for countries wishing to engage in global trade [3][10]. Practical Considerations - The choice to keep gold in the U.S. is driven by transaction efficiency, as New York is the largest gold trading center with a mature clearing system, allowing for quick and cost-effective transactions [5][8]. - Storing gold domestically would incur high transportation and insurance costs, and could be affected by geopolitical risks, making the current arrangement more practical [8][10]. Security Aspects - The New York Federal Reserve's underground vault is considered one of the safest storage facilities globally, providing a secure environment for national reserves [8][10]. - Gold serves as a financial stabilizer during currency devaluation or international crises, and the safety and operational efficiency of the New York facility currently surpass domestic options [8][10]. Strategic and Diplomatic Implications - Storing gold in a global financial center signals China's active participation in the international financial order, enhancing its credibility as a trading partner [10][16]. - The gold reserves also support the internationalization of the renminbi, increasing its global recognition and acceptance [10][16]. Risk Management - Concerns about the potential for the U.S. to seize the gold are mitigated by international law protecting central bank assets, as well as the potential repercussions for the U.S. economy if it were to act against these assets [12][14]. - China's significant holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds and investments in American companies create a complex interdependence that discourages aggressive actions against its gold reserves [12][14]. Future Considerations - While the current strategy is well thought out, China remains vigilant to changes in the international financial landscape and may adjust its gold storage strategy if necessary [18]. - The gold reserves are viewed as both wealth and a strategic asset, playing a crucial role in China's position within the global financial system [18].

Group 1 - The article discusses China's significant gold reserves, totaling approximately 2298.55 tons, ranking sixth globally, with about 600 tons stored in the United States [5][7][20] - The storage of gold in the U.S. is attributed to historical, economic, and security factors, facilitating international trade and providing a sense of security [14][26][28] - The U.S. gold storage system is described as highly secure, with extensive physical and procedural safeguards in place [18][20] Group 2 - The article highlights the risks associated with storing gold in the U.S., particularly in light of rising U.S. national debt and past incidents where other countries faced delays in retrieving their gold [22][24] - China's gold stored in the U.S. represents a small percentage of its total reserves, allowing for manageable risk exposure [24][28] - The potential for economic retaliation exists, as China could leverage its holdings of U.S. debt and assets of American companies in China if necessary [26][28]

Group 1: Macro Impact of Stablecoins - Stablecoins are evolving from mere crypto assets to key financial variables with macroeconomic influence, impacting money supply, credit creation, and the U.S. Treasury market[1] - Full reserve requirements are crucial for preventing net expansion of M2; as long as stablecoins maintain a 1:1 full reserve, they represent structural changes within existing M2 rather than an increase in total money supply[1] - The demand for U.S. Treasury securities, particularly short-term bonds, is significantly bolstered by stablecoins, which have reached a reserve scale of hundreds of billions, positioning them as a potential "new cornerstone" for the Treasury market[7] Group 2: Financial Institutions' Adaptation - Financial institutions are shifting from passive defense to proactive positioning in response to stablecoin impacts; commercial banks are issuing on-chain deposits to mitigate deposit outflows and provide reserve custody services[3] - Asset management companies are seizing opportunities by managing reserve assets for stablecoin issuers, particularly U.S. Treasury securities, as stablecoin reserves reach trillion-dollar levels[3] - Payment companies are leveraging their networks to create closed ecosystems by issuing proprietary stablecoins or integrating third-party stablecoins, aiming to reduce payment costs and enhance transaction efficiency[3] Group 3: Regulatory Landscape - Global jurisdictions are rapidly developing regulatory frameworks for stablecoins, with the U.S. establishing clear licensing and reserve requirements through the GENIUS Act, mandating 1:1 reserves and regular disclosures[2] - Hong Kong and Singapore have implemented detailed regulations for stablecoin reserves and redemption, reflecting a growing trend towards regulatory clarity in the stablecoin space[2] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - The potential shift to a fractional reserve system for stablecoins could lead to significant monetary expansion, posing challenges to monetary sovereignty and financial stability, reminiscent of the Nixon shock that ended the gold standard[6] - Stablecoins may become a "fragile fulcrum" in the U.S. Treasury market, with risks of liquidity mismatches and potential market disruptions during extreme conditions, such as large-scale redemptions[7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical fluctuations of the US dollar system, highlighting significant events such as the "Nixon Shock" in 1971 and the "Plaza Accord" in 1985, and suggests that a new "dollar shock" may be approaching due to increased policy volatility during the Trump era [5][6]. Group 1 - Since the mid-20th century, the US dollar has maintained its status as the world's dominant currency, but history shows that no hegemonic position is eternal [6]. - The "Nixon Shock" in August 1971, when President Nixon announced the suspension of the dollar's fixed exchange rate with gold, marked the end of the Bretton Woods system and initiated a shift towards floating exchange rates globally [6]. - The "Nixon Shock" set the stage for subsequent economic challenges, including stagflation and financial turmoil over the following decade [6].