美元占比降至42.8%，欧元升至32.5%，人民币表现如何？ 最近刷财经新闻的朋友，大概率见过"美元霸权松动"的说法，甚至有消息传"美元全球储备占比跌到42.8%，欧元冲到32.5%"。这消息一出来，不少人既好奇 又疑惑：美元真的跌这么快？欧元能接棒吗？咱们天天用的人民币，在这场全球货币"排位赛"里表现咋样？ 其实这些网传数据和官方口径有出入——国际货币基金组织（IMF）2025年二季度最新的COFER数据显示，美元储备占比是56.3%，虽然创了30年新低，但 远没到42.8%；欧元占比稳在20.2%左右，也没突破32.5%。不过"美元走弱、货币格局生变"是真的，今天就用IMF、中国央行的权威数据说话，聊聊美元、 欧元的真实处境，更关键的是看看人民币的底气和进展。 一、先辨真假：美元欧元的真实"排位分" 网传的"美元42.8%、欧元32.5%"可能混淆了"储备货币"和"交易货币"的口径，咱们得用IMF的官方数据算笔明白账。 先说美元：2025年二季度，它在全球外汇储备中的占比是56.3%，这是1994年以来的最低值，比2000年的72%跌了15.7个百分点。跌的原因很实在：一是美 联储2024年连续降息，把基 ...

Core Viewpoint - The evolution of the Renminbi (RMB) from an obscure currency to a globally recognized one reflects China's rise in economic power and influence [1][30]. Historical Context - Decades ago, the RMB had little presence internationally, with China playing a minor role in global trade [4][10]. - In the past, Chinese travelers had to exchange RMB for more widely accepted currencies like USD or HKD, highlighting its limited international usability [6][10]. - The RMB was not recognized as a significant currency due to China's weaker economic status at the time [11][10]. Currency Recognition - The name of a currency signifies international recognition, which the RMB lacked in earlier decades [8][10]. - The RMB's absence from the global financial system meant it could not function as a hard currency in international trade [10][24]. Economic Transformation - With China's economic growth, the RMB's status has significantly improved, becoming more accepted in international transactions [13][24]. - The RMB's international standard name is "CNY," which is recognized globally, while "RMB" is more of a domestic abbreviation [16][18]. Offshore Market - The offshore version of the RMB, known as "CNH," emerged to facilitate international transactions, particularly in markets like Hong Kong [18][20]. - The distinction between CNY and CNH reflects different regulatory environments and trading conditions for the RMB [20]. Global Financial Integration - The RMB's inclusion in the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket marks a significant milestone in its internationalization [24]. - More countries are incorporating RMB into their foreign exchange reserves, indicating its growing acceptance as a store of value [24][26]. Future Prospects - The trend shows an increasing willingness among countries to accept RMB, with more platforms for RMB transactions being established [28]. - The potential for RMB to become a global currency is evident, as it may one day allow Chinese travelers to use it directly abroad without needing to exchange for other currencies [28][30].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the unprecedented surge in stablecoins driven by U.S. political influence, particularly the regulatory framework established during the Trump administration, which has facilitated both domestic and global stablecoin development [1] - Stablecoins are defined as cryptocurrencies pegged to the value of fiat currencies, with USDT being the largest example, where Tether must hold an equivalent dollar or low-risk asset for each USDT issued, enhancing cross-border payment efficiency [1][3] - The emergence of stablecoins is reshaping the international monetary landscape, potentially reinforcing the U.S. dollar's dominance in global payments and investments, aligning with U.S. strategic goals [3] Group 2 - The distinction between the proposed Chinese yuan stablecoin and the already implemented digital yuan is emphasized, with the former being issued by qualified commercial entities and the latter by the People's Bank of China, highlighting different credit foundations [3] - The internationalization of currency relies on market acceptance rather than just technological innovation, necessitating trust in the yuan's value through reforms in foreign exchange controls and financial market openness [5] - The current global stablecoin market is dominated by U.S. dollar stablecoins like USDT and USDC, while other currencies such as the euro and yen are also developing their stablecoins to challenge the dollar's monopoly [5] Group 3 - China is advised to strategically enter the stablecoin market by piloting in offshore markets like Hong Kong, leveraging its financial infrastructure and regulatory experience [7] - Japan has initiated legislative procedures for a yen stablecoin, and the EU is also developing regulatory frameworks, indicating a global competition for establishing monetary rules in the digital age [9] - For China to diversify the international monetary system, it must balance regulation and innovation while addressing the advantages of existing dollar stablecoins and continuing financial market reforms [9]

Core Viewpoint - The development of the offshore RMB market can draw lessons from Japan's successful experience in offshore finance, emphasizing a low-profile and pragmatic approach to enhance financial competitiveness and support the internationalization of the RMB [1][4]. Group 1: Japan's Offshore Financial Success - The internationalization of the yen was driven by the establishment of a robust offshore financial market, which transformed the yen from a trade settlement tool to a freely convertible currency [1]. - The revision of Japan's Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Act in 1998 eliminated residual foreign exchange controls, significantly enhancing the linkage between offshore and onshore markets [1]. - The offshore yen lending rate (Euroyen LIBOR) and Tokyo interbank offered rate (TIBOR) spread narrowed to within 5 basis points, creating a mechanism for "offshore pricing - onshore transmission" [1]. Group 2: Functions of Offshore Financial Markets - Offshore financial markets serve as a key platform for the three core functions of currency internationalization: payment, investment, and reserve [2]. - Japan's economic layout in South America, particularly in Brazil and Argentina, exemplifies the deep synergy between offshore finance and industrial investment [2]. Group 3: Mechanisms in South America - In Brazil, Japan's investment reached $78 billion in 2023, utilizing a profit repatriation mechanism that aligns local regulations with offshore financial markets [2]. - In Argentina, despite capital controls, Japanese companies established efficient funding channels through "offshore node interconnection" [2]. Group 4: Low-Profile Strategy and Benefits - Japan's low-profile approach in offshore finance has led to macro-financial stability, enhanced micro-enterprise competitiveness, and geopolitical adaptability [3]. - The offshore market acted as a buffer against external shocks, stabilizing foreign exchange reserves and mitigating speculative pressures [3]. - The low-profile development provided Japanese companies in South America with operational advantages, including lower financing costs and improved tax efficiency [3]. Group 5: Lessons for China's Offshore RMB Market - China's offshore RMB market should transition from "policy-driven" to "institution-driven" and "market-driven," focusing on quality competition rather than scale [5]. - The establishment of a "offshore RMB entity label" system can ensure that offshore funds are closely tied to real trade and investment [5]. - A cross-border "trade-logistics-fund flow" big data verification platform can be developed to prevent false trade and arbitrage [5]. Group 6: Asset Pooling and Risk Isolation - Creating a "RMB-foreign exchange dual fund pool" in pilot areas can enhance the efficiency of fund utilization [6]. - The establishment of a multi-tiered RMB safe asset system through regular issuance of offshore central bank bills and government bonds can attract global investors [6]. - Implementing an "electronic fence" for risk isolation can prevent external shocks from affecting onshore markets [6]. Group 7: Tax Neutrality and Legal Framework - A tax system that is neutral and transparent, similar to Japan's, can reduce policy arbitrage in offshore RMB business [7]. - Establishing an "offshore RMB international arbitration center" can ensure that arbitration rules align with international practices while maintaining control over adjudication [7]. Group 8: Gradual and Low-Profile Approach - A gradual and low-profile strategy should be adopted to allow for institutional adjustments without rushing to create an "international benchmark" [8]. - The focus should be on improving foundational systems such as offshore account functions and tax policies in pilot free trade zones [9].

Core Points - The Hong Kong "Stablecoin Regulation" will take effect on August 1, establishing a comprehensive regulatory framework for fiat-backed stablecoins, marking a global first in this area [1][4] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) will begin accepting applications for licenses in August, with a deadline for submission by September 30, and the first licenses expected to be issued in early 2026 [1][4] - The regulation aims to provide a legal basis for the development of the stablecoin market in Hong Kong, enhancing investor protection and fostering innovation in the stablecoin ecosystem [4][5] Group 1: Regulatory Framework - The "Stablecoin Regulation" is seen as a model for global stablecoin policy, introducing innovative "value anchoring regulation" principles [4] - The regulation is expected to accelerate the transformation of pilot experiences into actual products, significantly speeding up the establishment of the local stablecoin ecosystem [4][5] Group 2: Market Impact - The regulation is anticipated to reduce traditional financial institutions' concerns about participating in the stablecoin market, attracting more innovative stablecoin entities and exchanges [5] - The development of Hong Kong's stablecoin market is expected to enhance its position and influence in the global stablecoin landscape, providing a competitive advantage [5] Group 3: Cross-Border Payment and Currency Internationalization - The development of HKD stablecoins will enrich Hong Kong's cross-border payment ecosystem and facilitate the use of digital RMB in cross-border transactions [6] - The integration of digital RMB and HKD stablecoins is expected to lower cross-border payment costs and improve efficiency, reducing reliance on systems like SWIFT [6][8] - The internationalization of the RMB can be driven by expanding financial scenarios and technological innovation, enhancing its acceptance in global trade [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) is warning about the risks of over-speculation in stablecoins as the Stablecoin Regulation comes into effect on August 1, indicating a commitment to a balanced development of stablecoins [1][2]. Group 1: Regulatory Framework - The Stablecoin Regulation, passed on May 21, 2025, aims to create a risk-based regulatory environment that aligns with international standards, enhancing the regulatory framework for virtual asset activities while promoting financial innovation and sustainable development [1][2]. - The regulation follows the principle of "same activity, same risk, same regulation," requiring issuers of fiat-backed stablecoins to obtain licenses and adhere to strict asset management and redemption requirements [1][2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Stablecoins serve as a crucial link between traditional finance and decentralized finance (DeFi), enhancing market efficiency and accelerating the adoption of Web3.0 technologies, which could attract international capital and innovation to Hong Kong [3]. - As of now, the global cryptocurrency market is valued at approximately $3.35 trillion, with stablecoin supply around $250 billion and trading volume projected to exceed $20 trillion in 2024, indicating a significant market presence [3]. Group 3: Internationalization of Currency - The internationalization of currencies is a long-term process influenced by the overall strength of an economy and the development of financial markets, with Hong Kong positioned to leverage its financial market advantages to support the internationalization of other fiat currencies [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) is an important development strategy for China, which should be approached with a pragmatic and cautious attitude rather than a pursuit of prestige [1] - Currency internationalization refers to the extent to which a sovereign currency is used as a medium of exchange or reserve asset in global economic activities, with a significant focus on financial transactions rather than just trade [1][4] - Financial transactions are the primary form of global trade, with the volume of foreign exchange trading equating to a year's worth of international trade every five trading days, and the total financial transaction volume being equivalent to global GDP every week [3][4] Group 2 - The internationalization of the RMB can enhance transaction convenience for businesses, eliminating the need to consider multiple currencies for imports and exports, and reducing exposure to foreign exchange risks [4][5] - A less obvious benefit is the potential reduction in borrowing costs, as international investors may be attracted to invest in China, leading to lower financing costs for companies issuing bonds [5][6] - The internationalization of the RMB could also lower personal loan rates, as increased foreign investment in Chinese banks would reduce the cost of attracting deposits [6][8] Group 3 - From a national perspective, currency internationalization can provide significant advantages, such as improving the ability to respond to financial crises and reducing the cost of issuing government bonds [8][10] - However, there are risks associated with currency internationalization, such as the "American disease," which refers to the potential for a country to relax fiscal discipline when its currency becomes an international currency, leading to increased fiscal deficits and inflation [10][11] - The RMB's internationalization must be approached cautiously to avoid negative impacts on the U.S. economy and to prevent the pitfalls associated with excessive currency issuance [13][14]