中国环境与发展国际合作委员会中方首席顾问、国务院发展研究中心原副主任刘世锦在接受21世纪经济 报道记者专访时表示，中国经济有三大优势，一是追赶潜能优势，人均国内生产总值要达到中等发达国 家水平，至少还有2万美元的增长潜能，主要是消费结构升级带动的服务业发展、传统制造业和农业的 转型升级等方面的潜能；二是以数字技术和绿色技术为重点的新技术革命优势；三是超大规模市场经济 优势。在此基础之上，下一步中国需要建设制造强国、消费强国和金融强国。 刘世锦指出，当前，中国经济增长主要由投资和出口驱动转向由创新和消费驱动。与创新和消费相对应 的是，制造强国的重点包括通过市场竞争涌现出一批在全球创新前沿能够起到引领作用的大型科技头部 企业，而消费强国的当务之急是尽快补上消费的结构性偏差缺口，形成全球最大规模的消费市场。实施 金融强国战略，就是要在制造和消费之间架起桥梁，依托现代化金融体系为制造强国和消费强国提供服 务。在这之中，很重要的一点，是需要有强大的资本市场和强大的货币。 21世纪经济报道记者冉黎黎北京报道2025年我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展，展现强大韧性和活力， 主要经济指标符合预期，经济总量有望达到140万亿元左 ...

Group 1 - The core idea of the article revolves around the historical context and evolution of the Euro, highlighting its political and economic implications in Europe post-World War II [1][2] - The establishment of the European Coal and Steel Community in 1952 marked the beginning of economic cooperation among European nations, with France as a key advocate [2] - The Maastricht Treaty of 1992 laid the groundwork for the Euro, requiring member states to align their economic policies and set strict criteria for joining the monetary union [3][4] Group 2 - The first decade after the Euro's introduction (1999-2009) was characterized as a golden period, with significant economic growth in Southern European countries, but also led to imbalances and rising debt levels [6][7] - The Eurozone crisis was triggered by Greece's admission of fiscal misreporting in 2009, leading to a series of financial crises in several Southern European countries [7][8] - The response to the crisis involved substantial financial aid packages, with the European Central Bank and other institutions providing significant support to struggling economies [9] Group 3 - By 2017, many crisis-affected countries showed signs of recovery, with GDP levels approaching pre-crisis figures, although Greece continued to lag behind [10] - The future of the Euro remains uncertain, influenced by internal political dynamics between France and Germany, as well as external pressures from global economic conditions [10]

第二次世界大战后，日本经济持续复苏。从1955年至1973年间，日本经济持续保持两位数的高速增长， 至20世纪60年代末已一跃成为仅次于美国的世界第二大经济体。 大约在同一时期，日本开始推动日元国际化进程。1964年，日本开始履行《国际货币基金组织协定》第 八条款的义务，实现日元经常项目自由兑换。20世纪70年代，日元国际化开始起步。1980年12月，日本 颁布新《外汇法》，基本实现日元在资本项目的自由可兑换。20世纪80年代，日本推出推动日元国际化 的一揽子方案，包括鼓励国际企业在日本使用日元，以加大日元在国际金融市场的使用力度；扩大日元 清算及其在国际金融市场的存贷款业务；加强日元汇率监管和改进日元汇率机制以确保日元汇率稳定； 等等。此后，日本又在东京开设离岸市场，实现利率市场化。一系列举措在一定时期内和一定程度上推 进了日元的国际化进程。日元在进口贸易结算中的占比从1970年的0.3%、1980年的2%上升到1990年的 14.5%，在出口贸易结算中的占比从1970年的0.9%、1980年的29%上升到1990年的37.5%。 但此后，日元国际化举步维艰。比对本世纪第一个十年日、美、英、德四国国际贸易本 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut of 25 basis points is seen as a "risk management" move rather than a direct response to external pressures, with the Fed emphasizing its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment [2][3] - The internal unity of the Federal Reserve is highlighted by the fact that only one member voted against the rate cut, indicating a commitment to established policy paths despite external pressures from political figures [3] - Long-term challenges to the dollar's credibility are identified, including potential conflicts between inflation control and employment maximization, as well as threats to the Fed's independence due to political interference [4][5] Group 2: Global Monetary Order Transformation - The current global monetary order is undergoing significant changes, with the U.S. dollar's status as a reserve currency being questioned due to aggressive trade policies and interventions by the Trump administration [6][7] - The rise in gold prices and increased gold purchases by emerging markets signal a shift towards diversifying reserves away from the dollar, reflecting a broader trend of "de-dollarization" [6][12] - The potential for a collective loss of confidence in the dollar by U.S. allies could mark a critical point in the transformation of the global monetary system [7] Group 3: Investment Opportunities in China - The recent rebound in the A-share market is driven by institutional investors, suggesting a shift in asset allocation from real estate to equities, influenced by policies aimed at improving the capital market environment [20][21] - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" is noted, where lower deposit rates encourage individuals to seek higher returns in the stock market, although this trend is still developing [22][21] - Long-term, equity assets are expected to become a significant component of wealth diversification for Chinese residents, especially as the real estate market adjusts [21][23] Group 4: Gold and Asset Allocation - The increasing interest in gold as a safe-haven asset is noted, with significant price increases observed, although short-term volatility may present challenges [24] - The potential for gold to serve as a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation is emphasized, alongside the need for individuals to balance their asset allocations between equities and gold based on risk tolerance [24][25] - The ongoing transformation of the global economic landscape presents opportunities for foreign investment in Chinese assets, particularly in the context of the country's economic transition and reforms [25]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that for a currency to achieve internationalization, the issuing country must be a global economic, technological, trade, and financial power. It suggests a phased approach for China to accelerate the internationalization of the Renminbi by enhancing economic development, increasing gold reserves, and building a modern financial market system while adhering to market-driven principles [1]. Summary by Sections International Currency Definition - An international currency is widely accepted and used in international economic transactions, characterized by convertibility, relative stability, and broad acceptance. Its internationalization is a natural outcome of historical economic development and a reflection of a country's comprehensive economic, technological, trade, and financial strengths [2]. Historical Review of Major Currencies - The article reviews the internationalization processes of major currencies, highlighting that the U.S. dollar, euro, and British pound have all followed similar paths influenced by economic and geopolitical factors [3]. U.S. Dollar Internationalization - The U.S. dollar became the world's leading international currency starting in 1900, primarily due to: - The Second Industrial Revolution, which established the U.S. as the world's leading economic power [4]. - World Wars I and II, which allowed the U.S. to accumulate substantial gold reserves while remaining largely unaffected by the conflicts [4]. - The "Dollar Diplomacy" policy, which expanded the dollar's influence in Latin America and Europe, particularly through the Marshall Plan post-World War II [5]. - The establishment of the Gold Standard Act, the Federal Reserve System, and the Bretton Woods System, which provided a stable institutional framework for the dollar [7]. Euro Internationalization - The euro emerged as the second-largest international currency within a few decades, driven by: - The establishment of the European Economic and Monetary Union, which laid the groundwork for the euro's creation [8]. - The introduction of the European Currency Unit (ECU), which stabilized member currencies and facilitated trade [8]. - The internationalization of the German mark and French franc, which contributed to the euro's acceptance [9]. - The establishment of the European Central Bank, which ensured monetary stability for the euro [11]. - The strong gold reserves and economic power of eurozone countries, which bolstered the euro's global influence [10]. British Pound Internationalization - The British pound was the first modern international currency, with its internationalization supported by: - The establishment of a modern financial system and the founding of the Bank of England, which provided a stable monetary framework [11]. - The First Industrial Revolution, which positioned the UK as the "world's factory" and increased the pound's use in international trade [11]. - A significant gold reserve, established through colonial expansion and mining, which underpinned the gold standard [12]. - Aggressive foreign investment strategies that enhanced the pound's international standing [12].

Core Insights - The latest SWIFT data shows that the US dollar remains dominant in global payments, holding nearly half of the market share, while the euro's share has declined. The Chinese yuan has risen to fifth place, surpassing the Canadian dollar, indicating a significant shift in the global currency landscape [2][4]. Group 1: Currency Rankings - As of September 2025, the US dollar accounts for 47.79% of global payments, followed by the euro at 22.77%, the British pound at 7.38%, the Japanese yen at 3.69%, and the Chinese yuan at 3.17% [4]. - The decline of the euro's share reflects structural issues within the Eurozone, including uneven economic development and policy disagreements among member states [5]. Group 2: Factors Driving Yuan's Rise - The rise of the yuan is attributed to China's economic strength, strategic initiatives, and increasing global influence, particularly through projects related to the Belt and Road Initiative [7][15]. - The yuan's internationalization is supported by China's robust economic performance in high-end manufacturing, technology innovation, and green energy, positioning it favorably in global supply chains [7]. Group 3: Investment and Market Dynamics - Emerging market countries view the yuan not only as a trade settlement tool but also as an alternative for foreign exchange reserves, reflecting growing confidence in China's economic outlook and financial stability [9]. - The development of China's cross-border payment system, CIPS, and the promotion of digital yuan are enhancing the efficiency and security of yuan transactions, further driving its international acceptance [11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The changing global currency payment rankings signify a broader shift in the world economic landscape, with the yuan increasingly challenging the dominance of the dollar and euro [15][17]. - The future of the yuan's role in the global financial system will depend on China's continued economic innovation, industry upgrades, and gradual financial market opening [15].

Core Viewpoint - The 2008 international financial crisis revealed inherent flaws and potential risks in the US dollar-dominated international monetary system, prompting emerging economies represented by BRICS nations to seek systemic reforms, including currency internationalization, to mitigate various risks. However, due to differences in economic structure, openness, and financial systems, Russia, India, Brazil, and South Africa exhibit varying degrees of enthusiasm and methods for currency internationalization. This article analyzes the processes and characteristics of these countries' currency internationalization to provide insights for advancing the internationalization of the Renminbi [1][3]. Group 1: Russia's Ruble Internationalization - Russia has strategically prioritized the internationalization of the ruble to enhance the global competitiveness of its financial system, especially in the context of the Ukraine conflict, linking it to sanctions mitigation and economic independence [4][6]. - The ruble's internationalization process can be divided into four phases, starting from the post-Soviet era, where Russia aimed to restore the ruble's international status through reforms and establishing a market-based exchange rate system [4][5]. - Following the 2008 financial crisis, Russia actively promoted the ruble's international use through regional and bilateral agreements, with a focus on the Eurasian Economic Union and increasing ruble trade settlements [6][7]. Group 2: India's Rupee Internationalization - India's approach to rupee internationalization has been cautious, evolving through two main phases, with a focus on promoting foreign trade and better integration into international markets [8][9]. - Initially, India adopted a gradual and cautious strategy, emphasizing bilateral invoicing and settlements in rupees, while only fully liberalizing international investments in 2014 [9][10]. - Post-Ukraine conflict, India has become more proactive in promoting rupee internationalization, establishing direct settlement mechanisms and engaging in regional cooperation frameworks to enhance the rupee's global acceptance [10]. Group 3: Brazil's Real Internationalization - Brazil's strategy for the internationalization of the real is characterized by a lack of a defined timeline, focusing instead on enhancing international and regional trade shares [11][12]. - Brazil implemented earlier reforms in exchange rate policy and capital account liberalization, transitioning to a floating exchange rate system in 1999 and promoting capital account openness [11][12]. - The internationalization of the real is facilitated through regional cooperation, particularly within the Southern Common Market, promoting trade settlements in local currencies and exploring the possibility of a unified currency among member states [12]. Group 4: South Africa's Rand Internationalization - South Africa has not set explicit goals or timelines for rand internationalization, but emphasizes the currency's stability and convertibility as crucial for economic support [13][14]. - The rand's internationalization has been primarily focused on regional usage, leveraging South Africa's influence in Africa to expand the currency's reach [13][14]. - Following the end of apartheid, South Africa's economic policies shifted towards market liberalization, enhancing the rand's trading volume and market activity [13]. Group 5: Insights and Implications - The currency internationalization efforts of these countries have shown some success, with increases in global foreign exchange trading shares for the rupee, real, and rand from 2010 to 2022 [15]. - Economic strength and stability are foundational for currency internationalization, with challenges such as inflation and political instability affecting the global acceptance of these currencies [16]. - The process of currency internationalization is also a de-dollarization effort, with a focus on regional expansion as a strategic approach to reduce reliance on the US dollar [18].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that major global economies are taking steps to curb the spread of US dollar-backed stablecoins, with Europe and China actively developing their own digital currencies to enhance financial sovereignty and reduce reliance on the dollar [2][3][6]. - A consortium of nine major European banks has announced plans to launch a euro-backed stablecoin to create an alternative to the US-dominated stablecoin market, aiming for strategic autonomy in payment systems [2][3]. - The European Central Bank has expressed concerns that widespread use of dollar stablecoins in the Eurozone could undermine its control over monetary policy, potentially leading to a situation similar to that of emerging economies heavily reliant on the dollar [3][4]. Group 2 - China has launched the Digital Renminbi International Operation Center in Shanghai, along with cross-border digital payment and blockchain service platforms, marking a proactive move in the global digital finance landscape [6][7]. - The internationalization of the Renminbi has been primarily driven by trade and cooperation along the Belt and Road Initiative, but progress has been slow due to traditional settlement system inertia and capital controls [7][8]. - The dominance of dollar stablecoins in the digital finance space highlights the competitive nature of financial rules, with China's absence potentially leading to a loss of influence in setting these rules [8][11]. Group 3 - The article discusses the historical context of the dollar's dominance, which was established through institutional design and international inertia post-World War II, particularly through the Bretton Woods system and the oil dollar system [10][12]. - The reliance on dollar stablecoins in the crypto space indicates that the dollar continues to play a central role even in emerging digital financial systems, posing risks for countries like China that do not participate [11][12]. - The potential systemic risks of over-reliance on the dollar are highlighted, emphasizing that currency is not just a payment tool but also a reflection of institutional and regulatory frameworks [12][13]. Group 4 - The article outlines the challenges China faces in promoting the internationalization of the Renminbi, including the need for a credible asset backing and the risks associated with private stablecoin issuance [16][17]. - The Digital Renminbi, issued by the central bank, is positioned as a sovereign digital currency that does not rely on external assets, contrasting with privately issued stablecoins [17][18]. - The Digital Renminbi can facilitate faster and cheaper cross-border payments, potentially creating a payment network independent of the SWIFT system, which would enhance financial security [18][19]. Group 5 - Trust and compliance issues are significant hurdles for the global acceptance of the Digital Renminbi, particularly regarding privacy concerns and the need for a widely accepted compliance framework [21][22]. - The integration of the Digital Renminbi into international payment systems requires technological compatibility and regulatory trust among multiple countries [23][24]. - The article emphasizes that the success of the Digital Renminbi as a reserve currency hinges on building a robust asset pool, ensuring liquidity, and establishing a transparent regulatory environment [25][26]. Group 6 - Strategic scenarios for the Digital Renminbi's breakthrough include energy trade settlements and small-scale transactions along the Belt and Road Initiative, which could reduce reliance on the dollar [27][28]. - The article concludes that while the Digital Renminbi may initially serve as a regional settlement currency, it has the potential to gain traction in international reserves over time [28].

Core Viewpoint - The current dollar system is facing a historic turning point as its three pillars—comprehensive national strength, crisis response capability, and institutional advantages—are simultaneously weakening, providing a strategic window for the development of the renminbi [1][9]. Group 1: Evolution of Global Safe Assets - Safe assets are defined as those that maintain stable nominal returns, high liquidity, and low credit risk during market turmoil [2]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) outlines five conditions for safe assets: low credit and market risk, high market liquidity, limited inflation risk, low exchange rate risk, and minimal idiosyncratic risk [2]. - U.S. Treasury bonds are currently viewed as the safest store of value globally, holding a significant share in the safe asset portfolio [2]. Group 2: Historical Support Conditions for Safe Assets - Comprehensive national strength is the fundamental support for a currency to become a global safe asset, as seen in historical examples like Spain, the Netherlands, and the UK [5]. - Crisis response capability is crucial for market trust, demonstrated by historical mechanisms like the Dutch East India Company bond trading and the establishment of the Federal Reserve's global dollar swap network [6]. - Institutional advantages manifest in three areas: rule-making power, control over clearing networks, and liquidity supply dominance, which are essential for maintaining currency hegemony [7]. Group 3: Current Challenges to the Dollar System - The U.S. is experiencing a relative weakening of national strength, with GDP shrinking by 0.3% in Q1 2025 and a manufacturing sector share in GDP dropping to just over 10% [10]. - The frequent use of economic sanctions by the U.S. has damaged institutional credibility, leading to a decline in the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves from 72% in 2000 to below 60% currently [11]. - Technological advancements are disrupting traditional institutional advantages, with over 20% of oil trade now conducted in non-dollar settlements and significant progress in digital currency development [12]. Group 4: Strategic Recommendations for the Renminbi - Strengthening comprehensive national strength through high-quality economic development and enhancing competitiveness in high-end manufacturing and digital technology [14]. - Improving crisis response capabilities and market trust by enhancing the liquidity of renminbi assets and reforming the national bond market [15]. - Building a new institutional advantage by coordinating rule-making, clearing, and liquidity supply systems to support the cross-border use of the renminbi [16].

Core Insights - The narrative of "dollar hegemony weakening" is prevalent, with claims that the dollar's global reserve share has dropped to 42.8% and the euro has risen to 32.5%, but these figures are misleading and do not align with official data from the IMF [1][3] Group 1: Dollar and Euro Positioning - The dollar's reserve share is reported at 56.3% as of Q2 2025, marking a 30-year low but still significantly higher than the euro and yuan combined [3][4] - The dollar's decline is attributed to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and concerns over U.S. debt levels, leading to a reduction in dollar-denominated assets held by other central banks [3][4] - The euro remains stable at around 20.2% of global reserves, supported by the European Central Bank's credibility and the economic size of the Eurozone, but faces challenges such as slow economic growth and policy unification [3][4] Group 2: Renminbi's Progress - The renminbi's global reserve share has increased to 2.12% (approximately $246.3 billion) as of Q1 2025, having doubled over recent years, with expectations of reaching 6% by 2030 according to central bank surveys [4][6] - Cross-border usage of the renminbi is growing, with a 21.1% year-on-year increase in cross-border transactions, and 26.5% of trade settlements now conducted in renminbi [4][5] - The renminbi's international payment system (CIPS) processed 175.49 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 42.6% increase, indicating a broader acceptance of renminbi in global trade [5][6] Group 3: Future Prospects and Challenges for Renminbi - The renminbi's potential for growth is supported by China's solid economic fundamentals, with a projected GDP growth of 5% in 2024, and ongoing internationalization efforts by the People's Bank of China [6][7] - However, significant challenges remain, including a large gap in reserve share compared to the euro and dollar, capital flow restrictions, and insufficient market depth for renminbi-denominated assets [8][9][10] - The global currency landscape is evolving gradually, with the dollar transitioning from an absolute leader to a relative one, while the renminbi is positioned as a promising contender for future growth [10]