Group 1 - The core argument is that the dollar is facing a "anchor" crisis due to the diminishing effectiveness of its traditional backing, such as gold reserves and industrial production capacity, leading to a potential structural adjustment in the international monetary system [1][4][12] - The transition from the gold standard to the gold-exchange standard established a long-lasting credit system for the dollar, which was initially supported by abundant gold reserves [5][7] - The Bretton Woods system expanded the gold-exchange standard globally, with the dollar being pegged to gold, but this system eventually collapsed due to the Triffin dilemma, highlighting the limitations of gold as a backing for the dollar [8][10] Group 2 - The "petrodollar" system was established to create a new anchor for the dollar, linking it to oil trade, which significantly increased the demand for dollars in international transactions [11][12] - The current geopolitical landscape and the rise of alternative currencies, such as the euro and yuan, are challenging the dominance of the dollar, as countries seek to reduce reliance on it for trade [12][14] - The U.S. is attempting to find new anchors for the dollar, such as high-tech products and critical minerals, but faces significant challenges in establishing these as viable alternatives to the "petrodollar" [15][16] Group 3 - The emergence of stablecoins as a potential means to maintain dollar dominance raises questions about their stability and the underlying assets they are tied to, which may not provide a reliable foundation for the dollar's future [18][19] - The volatility of the underlying dollar assets poses risks to stablecoins, as seen during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis, which affected the value of stablecoins like USDC [18][19]

Group 1: Stablecoin Overview - Stablecoins are defined as crypto assets that maintain value stability by being pegged to fiat currencies, primarily used for payments, settlements, and investments. Their rapid rise is attributed to low costs and real-time settlement advantages, especially in cross-border payments, making them a significant alternative to local currencies in high inflation or capital control environments [1] - In 2024, stablecoin transaction volume surpassed the combined total of Visa and Mastercard, reaching $28 trillion, supporting one-third of global crypto transactions [1] Group 2: GENIUS Act Core Content - The GENIUS Act, passed by the U.S. Senate in June 2025, establishes a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins, allowing only approved payment stablecoin issuers, including insured deposit institution subsidiaries and compliant entities, to issue stablecoins. Tech giants are prohibited from issuing stablecoins unless they meet strict financial risk and consumer protection standards [2] - Stablecoin issuers are required to hold 1:1 high liquidity assets, such as cash or short-term U.S. Treasury securities, and must publish audited reserve reports monthly. Issuers with a market cap over $50 billion must submit annual financial audits to ensure asset segregation and risk control [2] Group 3: Impacts of the GENIUS Act - The new stablecoin legislation is expected to create new demand for U.S. Treasury securities, maintaining stability in the U.S. bond market. It mandates that stablecoin reserves be invested in short-term Treasuries and cash, potentially leading to stablecoins holding $1.2 trillion in Treasuries by 2030, surpassing holdings of any single country [3] - The development of stablecoins can further strengthen the international position of the U.S. dollar, as over 95% of stablecoins are dollar-pegged, facilitating international trade and offshore settlements, effectively creating a "shadow dollar network" [3] - There is a potential for systemic risk transmission from dollar stablecoins, which could introduce new risks to the U.S. financial system. A large-scale run on stablecoins could lead to a vicious cycle of Treasury sell-offs and credit collapse [4] - The GENIUS Act reinforces the leading position of dollar stablecoins, while the development of euro stablecoins faces regulatory pressures, potentially paving the way for the introduction of a digital euro [4] - The act may weaken the credit of sovereign currencies in high-inflation countries, as citizens use stablecoins as a hedge, undermining local currency circulation and central bank monetary policy effectiveness [4]