国际货币基金组织最新数据显示，截至2025年二季度末，在全球披露币种构成的外汇储备中，美元占比 由上季度末的57.79%降至56.32%，份额连续11个季度低于60%，创下30年来新低。 另据美国财政部发布的国际资本流动报告，2025年二季度，不含国际组织的官方外资净买入美国证券资 产规模仅为51亿美元，环比下降94.4%，较2023年二季度至2025年一季度季均值大幅回落72.1%。 叠加美国国债总额突破38万亿美元历史新高，单边主义、保护主义、霸凌主义的经贸政策冲击全球贸易 体系，扩大美元信用裂痕等因素，重塑国际货币体系、构建多极化新体系的呼声日渐高涨。 美元是怎样占据国际货币体系主导地位的？未来，其主导地位还能继续保持吗？ 弧光泛起 故事要从20世纪初期说起。 许多经济学家认为，有两个措施在美元国际化进程中发挥了至关重要的作用。第一个是，美国银行业在 金融家弗兰克·范德利普的带领下进入国外市场，在国际交易中接受以美元计价的商业承兑汇票。第二 个是，时任纽约联邦储备银行行长本杰明·斯特朗要求美联储系统各地区分行购买这些承兑汇票。斯特 朗之所以提出这样的要求，是因为当时的美国银行机构尚没有能力建立一个美元承 ...

Core Viewpoint - The book "New Monetary Landscape" discusses the evolution of the international monetary system, the inherent contradictions of the current system, and the progress and lessons of RMB internationalization, proposing strategies to advance it [3][4]. Group 1: Historical Context and Lessons - The authors provide a detailed analysis of the rise of the US dollar and the decline of the British pound, emphasizing the historical significance of the Marshall and Dodge Plans in saving the Bretton Woods system and reinforcing the dollar's international status [3]. - The book highlights two critical steps in the dollar's internationalization: the entry of major US banks into foreign markets and the Federal Reserve's support for dollar-denominated commercial paper, leading to over 50% of US trade being settled in dollars by the 1920s [4]. Group 2: RMB Internationalization Strategies - The book argues that RMB internationalization must be grounded in China's domestic economy, maintaining monetary policy independence and macroeconomic stability [5]. - It suggests that cultivating and developing the RMB's pricing function is crucial, with practical paths including promoting RMB pricing through economic aid to African countries, addressing trade deficits with neighboring countries, and facilitating RMB transactions in commodity trading [5][6]. Group 3: Comparative Analysis and Challenges - The authors analyze Japan's failed yen internationalization efforts, attributing the failure to the inability to maintain a stable yen exchange rate, which diminished its international value [5]. - The book posits that the current international monetary system's sustainability hinges on whether peripheral countries will continue to purchase US debt, which is influenced by the US's growing external debt and trade deficits [6][8]. Group 4: Financial Cooperation and Regional Currency - The book advocates for regional monetary cooperation to promote domestic financial reform and open up, aiming to establish the RMB as a regional international currency in Asia [6]. - It emphasizes the dangers of financial liberalization combined with rigid exchange rates, suggesting that the interaction between RMB internationalization and capital account liberalization requires more detailed discussion [7]. Group 5: Global Reserve Asset Diversification - The authors note that diversification of reserve assets among US allies cannot effectively mitigate systemic risks, as demonstrated by the sanctions against Russia following the Ukraine conflict [8]. - They argue for a strategic shift towards a new development pattern that prioritizes domestic circulation while reducing asymmetries in dollar assets and liabilities [8].

Core Viewpoint - Stablecoins may support the use of the US dollar internationally, according to Federal Reserve official Logan [1] Group 1 - The potential of stablecoins to enhance the global usage of the US dollar is highlighted [1]

Group 1 - The core argument is that the dollar is facing a "anchor" crisis due to the diminishing effectiveness of its traditional backing, such as gold reserves and industrial production capacity, leading to a potential structural adjustment in the international monetary system [1][4][12] - The transition from the gold standard to the gold-exchange standard established a long-lasting credit system for the dollar, which was initially supported by abundant gold reserves [5][7] - The Bretton Woods system expanded the gold-exchange standard globally, with the dollar being pegged to gold, but this system eventually collapsed due to the Triffin dilemma, highlighting the limitations of gold as a backing for the dollar [8][10] Group 2 - The "petrodollar" system was established to create a new anchor for the dollar, linking it to oil trade, which significantly increased the demand for dollars in international transactions [11][12] - The current geopolitical landscape and the rise of alternative currencies, such as the euro and yuan, are challenging the dominance of the dollar, as countries seek to reduce reliance on it for trade [12][14] - The U.S. is attempting to find new anchors for the dollar, such as high-tech products and critical minerals, but faces significant challenges in establishing these as viable alternatives to the "petrodollar" [15][16] Group 3 - The emergence of stablecoins as a potential means to maintain dollar dominance raises questions about their stability and the underlying assets they are tied to, which may not provide a reliable foundation for the dollar's future [18][19] - The volatility of the underlying dollar assets poses risks to stablecoins, as seen during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis, which affected the value of stablecoins like USDC [18][19]

Group 1: Stablecoin Overview - Stablecoins are defined as crypto assets that maintain value stability by being pegged to fiat currencies, primarily used for payments, settlements, and investments. Their rapid rise is attributed to low costs and real-time settlement advantages, especially in cross-border payments, making them a significant alternative to local currencies in high inflation or capital control environments [1] - In 2024, stablecoin transaction volume surpassed the combined total of Visa and Mastercard, reaching $28 trillion, supporting one-third of global crypto transactions [1] Group 2: GENIUS Act Core Content - The GENIUS Act, passed by the U.S. Senate in June 2025, establishes a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins, allowing only approved payment stablecoin issuers, including insured deposit institution subsidiaries and compliant entities, to issue stablecoins. Tech giants are prohibited from issuing stablecoins unless they meet strict financial risk and consumer protection standards [2] - Stablecoin issuers are required to hold 1:1 high liquidity assets, such as cash or short-term U.S. Treasury securities, and must publish audited reserve reports monthly. Issuers with a market cap over $50 billion must submit annual financial audits to ensure asset segregation and risk control [2] Group 3: Impacts of the GENIUS Act - The new stablecoin legislation is expected to create new demand for U.S. Treasury securities, maintaining stability in the U.S. bond market. It mandates that stablecoin reserves be invested in short-term Treasuries and cash, potentially leading to stablecoins holding $1.2 trillion in Treasuries by 2030, surpassing holdings of any single country [3] - The development of stablecoins can further strengthen the international position of the U.S. dollar, as over 95% of stablecoins are dollar-pegged, facilitating international trade and offshore settlements, effectively creating a "shadow dollar network" [3] - There is a potential for systemic risk transmission from dollar stablecoins, which could introduce new risks to the U.S. financial system. A large-scale run on stablecoins could lead to a vicious cycle of Treasury sell-offs and credit collapse [4] - The GENIUS Act reinforces the leading position of dollar stablecoins, while the development of euro stablecoins faces regulatory pressures, potentially paving the way for the introduction of a digital euro [4] - The act may weaken the credit of sovereign currencies in high-inflation countries, as citizens use stablecoins as a hedge, undermining local currency circulation and central bank monetary policy effectiveness [4]