Employment - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased to 199,000, better than the expected 218,000, with the previous value revised from 214,000 to 215,000[6] - Continuing claims fell from 1.913 million to 1.866 million, against an expectation of 1.902 million[6] Economic Activity - The U.S. Weekly Economic Index (WEI) was stable at 2.23% for the week ending December 27, 2025, with a four-week moving average of 2.26%[13] - The German Weekly Activity Index (WAI) rose to 0.14% for the week ending December 21, 2025, compared to 0.1% the previous week[13] Retail and Mortgage Rates - The U.S. Redbook retail sales year-on-year growth increased to 7.6%, with a four-week moving average of 6.7%[17] - The 30-year mortgage rate in the U.S. slightly decreased to 6.15% from 6.18% the previous week[20] Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the U.S. and Eurozone marginally tightened, with the Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index for the U.S. at 0.795, down from 0.807[38] - Offshore dollar liquidity showed a slight easing, with the three-month swap basis for the yen against the dollar improving from -24.125 pips to -21.5 pips[43] Commodity Prices - The RJ/CRB commodity price index decreased by 0.9% week-on-week, following a 1.8% increase the previous week[34] - U.S. gasoline prices continued to decline, averaging $2.69 per gallon, down 1.1% from the previous week[34] Federal Spending - U.S. federal spending for the calendar year 2025 is projected to be approximately $7.765 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.8%[54]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent economic data from the US, Eurozone, and Japan, highlighting that most data points are below expectations, indicating potential economic weakness and areas to monitor in the upcoming weeks [2][3][5]. Group 1: US Economic Data - November non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, but other key economic indicators such as October retail sales, November CPI, and Michigan consumer confidence index fell short [2][11]. - Upcoming data to watch includes October durable goods orders, November industrial output, and December consumer confidence index [2][11]. - Weekly economic activity index in the US remained stable, while the German index showed a rising trend [17]. Group 2: Eurozone Economic Data - Eurozone data released this week, including the December monetary policy meeting results and October industrial output, met expectations, while December PMI for manufacturing and services fell short [3][12]. - No significant data releases are scheduled for the upcoming week in the Eurozone [4][12]. Group 3: Japanese Economic Data - Japan's economic indicators, including the quarterly manufacturing index and November CPI, aligned with expectations, while the December PMI showed improvement compared to the previous month [5][13]. - Key upcoming data includes December Tokyo CPI, November unemployment rate, and November industrial output [5][14]. Group 4: Employment and Demand - Initial jobless claims in the US decreased to 224,000, slightly better than expected, while continuing claims rose but remained below forecasts [24]. - The commercial retail sales growth in the US showed a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, indicating a recovery in consumer demand [20]. Group 5: Price and Financial Conditions - Commodity prices have declined, and US gasoline prices continued to drop, with the average price at $2.77 per gallon [32][33]. - Financial conditions in the Eurozone improved slightly, while those in the US remained stable [35]. - The spread-to-worst for high-yield US corporate bonds remained largely unchanged, indicating stable credit conditions [41]. Group 6: Fiscal Spending - As of December 18, total federal spending in the US reached approximately $7.537 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6%, compared to 3% in the same period last year [46].

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate has recently experienced significant volatility, with a notable rebound after initially breaking below the critical support level of 146.20, highlighting the ongoing tug-of-war between bulls and bears in the market [1]. Market Analysis - The current focus is on the key resistance area between 147.40 and 148.00, which has previously served as a pivotal point for multiple highs, particularly the round number of 148, acting as a potential dividing line for market sentiment [1]. - A breakthrough above this resistance could lead to targets near the 200-day moving average and the monthly high around 149, although current momentum indicators like MACD and RSI suggest that upward momentum may need to build further before a sustained rally occurs [1]. Support Levels - The support zone between 146.00 and 146.20 has proven to be reliable following a previous false breakout, but a drop below 146 could lead to further declines towards 145.50 or even 145.00 [3]. Economic Context - Recent economic data from Japan has been disappointing, with July's core machinery orders declining by 4.6% month-on-month, raising concerns about the economic outlook [3]. - Despite the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts, its hawkish stance has provided some support for the USD, while market attention is increasingly on the Bank of Japan's potential policy actions amid rising inflation and a tightening labor market [3].