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光当世界钱袋子不够,要想人民币取代美元,中国得学会当世界债主
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-02-18 13:40
光当世界的钱袋子还不够,人民币要想取代美元,中国还得学会当全世界的债主。 时至今日,很多人一谈起人民币国际化这个宏大问题,目光总是会被一个显眼的指标所吸引,外汇储备。 最新的IMF数据显示,虽然中国稳居世界第二大经济体的位置,但人民币在全球官方外汇储备中的占比依然稍显尴尬:仅排在第七位,甚至落后于澳元。相 比之下,美元依然以57%的份额傲视群雄。这种反差很容易引发一种迷惑:是不是我们还要更加努力,通过贸易让全世界多攒一点人民币呢?是不是只要大 家都把人民币当存款存起来,人民币就能拥有像美元那样的国际地位了呢? 长期以来,主流经济学界有一种观点一直十分流行:如果想让一种货币成为全球储备货币,它的发行国就必须忍受长期的贸易逆差,向全世界输出货币。这 种观点是如此地深入人心,以至于如今似乎已经成了人民币国际化的一道心理障碍。作为全球最大的出口国家,难道中国真的要把自己变成一个逆差国,才 有可能让人民币走向国际吗? 这揭示了国际金融体系的一个基本原理,也就是"资产负债匹配"原则。大多数国家和企业之所以储备美元,是因为它们欠了美元债。为了偿还利息和本金, 为了对冲汇率风险,它们必须持有美元资产。这才是美元霸权的真正锚点 ...
以史为鉴:流动性危机中的美联储
雪球· 2025-04-12 04:04
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current surge in U.S. Treasury yields as a critical vulnerability for the U.S. economy, suggesting a potential scenario of a bond market collapse, widespread hedge fund liquidations, and Federal Reserve intervention to stabilize the market [1]. Group 1: Historical Context of Liquidity Crises - Each liquidity crisis is characterized by a panic where lenders seek to retract loans and borrowers rush to sell collateral, leading to a downward spiral in asset prices and liquidity [1]. - Historical instances of liquidity crises, such as the Silicon Valley Bank crisis, the March 2020 liquidity crisis, and the 2019 repo crisis, are reviewed, highlighting the Federal Reserve's role as a last resort lender [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Special Lending Facilities - The Federal Reserve has introduced special lending facilities, such as the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), which was established in March 2023 to address the Silicon Valley Bank crisis, allowing eligible institutions to borrow against U.S. Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities at face value [3][6]. - As of May 3, 2023, the borrowing amount under BTFP reached $75.8 billion, indicating significant reliance on this facility during the crisis [6]. - The discount window, a traditional short-term loan tool, saw a peak borrowing of $152.9 billion on March 15, 2023, following the crisis, before declining to $5.3 billion by May 3, 2023 [6]. Group 3: Specific Events and Responses - The article details the March 2020 liquidity crisis triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic, where the Federal Reserve implemented various measures, including the Main Street Lending Program and the Commercial Paper Funding Facility, to support credit flow to households and businesses [8][9]. - The 2019 repo crisis is highlighted, where the overnight repo rate spiked from around 2% to over 5%, prompting the Federal Reserve to intervene with low-cost funding to stabilize the market [14][16].