在资产负债表的问题上，鲍曼明确表示，她偏好尽量小的资产负债表规模，准备金余额更接近稀缺而非 充裕水平。她建议美联储，积极抛售抵押贷款支持证券（MBS），因为"仅仅靠MBS到期将无法在可信 的时间框架内回归纯国债投资组合"。 持续呼吁果断降息应对就业风险 鲍曼周五指出，过去几个月，她一直强调，经济形势在变化，就业和通胀目标风险的平衡态势有变，并 指出劳动力市场可能出现脆弱的迹象。她认为，日益显现的劳动力市场疲软迹象为美联储积极采取措施 支持就业目标提供了依据。紧接着她说： 和近期讲话一样，美联储负责金融监管的副主席鲍曼（Michelle Bowman）重申，美国的就业市场"脆 弱"，通胀则接近联储目标，因此呼吁坚定降息。不同于之前的是，这次鲍曼还提出，美联储应努力将 资产负债表控制在最小规模，并改革其货币政策执行机制。 美东时间26日周五发表的演讲中，鲍曼强调，美联储货币政策委员会FOMC需要"果断且主动地行动"， 应对劳动力市场脆弱的新兆头。她再次警告，美联储在应对就业风险方面有落后于形势的风险，如果这 些状况持续，未来可能不得不更快且更大幅调整政策。 "在我看来，在市场出现脆弱迹象时迅速果断地采取行动，远比 ...

美联储理事鲍曼表示，美联储应寻求实现尽可能小的资产负债表规模，并全面改革其货币政策实施机 制。鲍曼称："从长期来看，我倾向于维持尽可能小的资产负债表，使准备金余额接近稀缺水平，而非 充裕水平。"鲍曼认为，回归到美联储积极管理资产负债表的机制，将能更好地显示市场压力和运行问 题。鲍曼称："允许货币市场出现适度的波动，可以增强我们对市场出清点的理解。"她还表示，她支持 美联储的资产负债表上只持有国债，且期限略微倾向于短期 证券，而不是完全与整体市场的期限结构 一致。她说，这将给美联储带来更大的灵活性。鲍曼补充称，美联储应该考虑积极出售其持有的抵押贷 款支持证券（MBS）。（格隆汇） ...

Core Viewpoint - PIMCO suggests that the Federal Reserve should consider halting the reduction of its mortgage-backed securities (MBS) holdings to support the U.S. housing market [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - Since the beginning of the interest rate hike cycle in 2022, the Federal Reserve has been gradually reducing its MBS holdings through quantitative tightening (QT) [1] - The Fed has allowed the principal and interest payments from MBS to mature without reinvesting the proceeds [1] Group 2: Impact on Mortgage Market - PIMCO reports that the continuous reduction of MBS holdings over the past three years has led to an "abnormally wide" mortgage spread, which is the difference between Treasury yields and mortgage rates [1] - As of last Friday, this spread was approximately 230 basis points, nearing historical highs [1] - This situation has contributed to an increase in the average rate for the most common 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, which currently stands at 6.35% [1] Group 3: Proposed Solutions - PIMCO's Chief Investment Officer, Mark Sedna, and others argue that reinvesting the principal and interest payments from MBS could have a similar or even better effect on lowering mortgage rates compared to rate cuts [1]

Group 1 - The US capital market remains active and resilient despite ongoing risks and challenges, with market indices consistently reaching new highs, including the Dow Jones approaching the 50,000 mark [1] - The Federal Reserve's quantitative easing (QE) measures since the 2008-2009 financial crisis have significantly boosted the stock market, with the S&P 500 index rising from approximately 676 points in March 2009 to nearly 6,500 points by 2025, reflecting a substantial increase [2] - The emphasis on capital market development is crucial for China's economic transformation, with a focus on "productive finance" to support real economic activities and promote growth, employment, and technological advancement [3][4] Group 2 - The concept of "productive finance" is defined as a financial model that directly or indirectly supports real economic activities, aiming to enhance overall economic vitality rather than merely seeking short-term financial gains [3][4] - China's economy is entering a "bond economy" phase, necessitating reliance on a robust capital market and financial tools to manage and offset debt, rather than conventional administrative methods [4] - The reform of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) should pivot towards becoming productive finance groups, focusing on asset preservation and value enhancement while supporting the development of the real economy and technology [5][6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View - Similar to the Bank of Japan, the Fed's bond - buying policy was initially a tool for liquidity adjustment. In 2008, the sub - prime mortgage crisis led to systemic financial risks and exhausted traditional interest - rate cut space, prompting the Fed to turn to QE. In 2020, the COVID - 19 outbreak restarted QE. In the short term, the impact of the QE policy on Treasury yields evolves more through investors' expectations, while in the long term, the US QE significantly affects long - term Treasury yields. Large - scale bond purchases provide liquidity to the financial market and drive down interest rates to some extent [1][66]. Summary by Different Stages First Stage (Before 2008): Traditional Monetary Policy Tool for Providing Liquidity - **Macro Background and Policy Objectives**: To meet the continuous expansionary demand for base money, the Fed used open - market operations (permanent and temporary) to control the money supply and influence interest rates. Asset purchases mainly supported currency issuance, while repurchase transactions smoothed liquidity disturbances [14][15]. - **Bond - buying Method**: One - way purchases in the primary and secondary markets. The Fed usually conducted weekly bond - buying operations in the secondary market through the SOMA. From 2004 - 2006, it carried out 40, 24, and 39 cash - bond transactions respectively, with average single - time increases of $1.28 billion, $1.04 billion, and $0.92 billion [20]. - **Impact on the Bond Market**: The Fed's bond - buying had a relatively limited impact on the bond market as its core goal was to limit the impact on normal market functions and the purchase scale was generally small. US Treasury yields were mainly determined by market expectations of future economic growth, inflation, and policy rates [38]. Second Stage (2008 - 2014): Quantitative Easing after the Sub - prime Mortgage Crisis - **Macro Background and Policy Objectives**: The 2008 sub - prime mortgage crisis led to a liquidity crisis. The Fed implemented QE to stabilize the financial and real - estate markets, lower long - term interest rates, and stimulate the economy by purchasing assets and expanding its balance sheet [39][40]. - **Bond - buying Method**: Continuous purchases in the secondary market. The QE process included three rounds and a twist operation. QE1 (2008.11 - 2010.3) had a total scale of $1.725 trillion; QE2 (2010.11 - 2011.6) involved buying $600 billion of long - term Treasuries; the twist operation (2011.9 - 2012.12) sold short - term Treasuries and bought an equal amount of long - term Treasuries; QE3 (2012.9 - 2014.10) was an open - ended plan. The Fed started tapering in 2013 [41][44]. - **Impact on the Bond Market**: The actual bond - buying operations had inconsistent effects on bond yields. After the QE policy was introduced, the bond market traded more based on investors' expectations. In the long run, the QE policy significantly reduced US bond yields. From October 2008 to October 2014, the yields of 1 - year and 10 - year Treasuries dropped by 124BP and 166BP respectively [47][48]. Third Stage (2015 - 2018): Difficult Exploration of Normalization - **Macro Background and Policy Objectives**: With the US economy's moderate recovery, the Fed aimed to exit the ultra - loose policy through passive balance - sheet reduction to avoid asset price bubbles and financial risks [49][50]. - **Bond - buying Method**: No reinvestment after bond maturity. The Fed raised interest rates 9 times from the end of 2015 to the end of 2018 and started QT in October 2017, gradually reducing its bond holdings [51][52]. - **Impact on the Bond Market**: After the QT policy was implemented, US Treasury yields continued to rise. It is believed that balance - sheet reduction increased Treasury yields as it meant less demand for US Treasuries and occurred during the late stage of the interest - rate hike cycle [55]. Fourth Stage (2019 - 2022): Unprecedented Response to the Pandemic - **Macro Background and Policy Objectives**: The COVID - 19 outbreak in 2020 led to an economic slowdown and market panic. The Fed launched an "unlimited QE" to start the crisis - response mode [56][57]. - **Bond - buying Method**: Unlimited QE - Taper - Balance - sheet reduction. The Fed cut interest rates to zero in March 2020, launched a $700 billion QE plan, and then an "unlimited QE". It started tapering in November 2021 and planned to end QE in mid - 2022. Balance - sheet reduction started in May 2022 [58][60][61]. - **Impact on the Bond Market**: After the "unlimited QE" was announced, US bond yields declined. However, due to factors such as investors' expectations and economic fluctuations, the ultimate impact of the Fed's bond - buying was limited. In 2022, the Fed's bond - buying failed to lower bond yields [63][65].

Group 1: Definition and Purpose of Quantitative Easing - Quantitative Easing (QE) is a non-conventional monetary policy where central banks purchase long-term bonds to increase the money supply and inject liquidity into the market, aiming to stimulate consumption and investment by influencing inflation expectations [3][4] - The primary goal of QE is to break the "liquidity trap" when nominal interest rates are near zero, making it difficult for traditional monetary policy to be effective [4] Group 2: Reasons for Implementing Quantitative Easing - Traditional monetary policy tools become ineffective during severe economic downturns, such as the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, necessitating the use of QE to directly inject liquidity into the market [4] - QE helps combat deflation by injecting liquidity, raising asset prices, and stimulating demand, thereby reversing deflationary expectations [5] - During financial crises, QE provides liquidity to prevent market panic and stabilize financial institutions, avoiding widespread bankruptcies [6] Group 3: Operation of Quantitative Easing - Central banks typically target low-risk, highly liquid assets for purchase, such as government bonds and mortgage-backed securities, with the possibility of including corporate bonds and ETFs in special circumstances [7] - The implementation involves open market operations where central banks buy assets from primary dealers, injecting funds back into the banking system [8] - The funds received by dealers from asset sales flow back into the banking system, increasing excess reserves and ultimately facilitating lending and investment in the real economy [9] Group 4: Impacts of Quantitative Easing - QE stimulates economic recovery by lowering financing costs for businesses and individuals, leading to increased investment and consumption, which can boost GDP and reduce unemployment [11] - It stabilizes the financial system by injecting liquidity, alleviating pressure on financial institutions during crises [11] - The influx of capital into financial markets drives up asset prices, potentially creating a positive feedback loop that further stimulates consumption and investment [11] Group 5: Notable Cases of Quantitative Easing - The Federal Reserve implemented multiple rounds of QE post-2008 financial crisis, expanding its balance sheet from $4 trillion to a peak of $8.9 trillion after the COVID-19 pandemic [10] - Japan's central bank adopted QE in the 1990s following economic stagnation, significantly increasing its balance sheet, but with limited success in economic recovery [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve may adjust its asset portfolio to better align its assets and liabilities, mitigating interest rate risks and improving its negative asset situation, which could provide crucial support to the U.S. Treasury and reshape the supply-demand dynamics in the short-term bond market [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Strategy - The Federal Reserve is likely to gradually reinvest the proceeds from maturing mortgage-backed securities (MBS) into short-term Treasury bills (T-bills) and convert maturing Treasury bonds into shorter-term notes, aiming to shorten liability durations and reduce the impact of long-term interest rate fluctuations on its balance sheet [3]. - The potential scale of this operation could approach $1 trillion, as the Treasury has recently issued about $1 trillion in short-term notes, with the Federal Reserve possibly becoming a major buyer, creating new demand in the front end of the market [3]. Group 2: Impact on Treasury and Bond Market - The U.S. Treasury has been increasing short-term bond issuance to address the expanding fiscal deficit and accelerate cash reserves replenishment after the debt ceiling was raised in June. The Federal Reserve's shift towards short-term Treasury investments could absorb some of the new supply, alleviating concerns about supply-demand imbalances in the short-term bond market [3]. - This adjustment may enhance liquidity in the short-term bond market but could also increase volatility in long-term bonds. Additionally, a large-scale shift to short-term Treasury securities may indirectly affect the stability of the overnight funding market [4].

当前，美国正计划让房利美和房地美重新上市，预计今年晚些时候启动的程序旨在筹集约300亿美元资 金。二十年前，为避免金融危机期间灾难性损失，政府曾接管这两家机构。长期以来，它们通过购买银 行抵押贷款、打包成债券并担保违约还款，在推动美国住房拥有率方面扮演核心角色。 但行业观察人士指出，将两家机构从政府托管中剥离面临多重挑战，任何操作失误都可能削弱市场对政 府支持的信心。特朗普政府官员，包括财政部长斯科特·贝森特和联邦住房金融局局长比尔·普尔特，近 几个月来多次强调"防止抵押贷款利率上涨是首要任务"。 房地美前首席执行官戴维·布里克曼坦言："这是个难解的题，尤其在短期内。若不提供更明确的担保或 拓展盈利模式，解除托管的同时不推高利率几乎不可能。"财政部和联邦住房金融局尚未对此置评。 在规模超6万亿美元的机构抵押贷款支持证券(MBS)市场中，投资者似乎对政府缓解潜在混乱的举措抱 有信心。这包括特朗普本人承诺维持对两家机构的"隐性担保"。近期MBS风险溢价几乎未变，显示交易 员仍相信即便私有化后，政府仍会为危机中的房利美和房地美提供支持。 不过，Pimco提醒市场不可忽视风险。这家管理超2万亿美元资产的资管巨头指出： ...

彼得首先直言美国消费者面临日益加剧的财务压力背后的心理状态。他指出，对许多深陷债务泥潭的人 而言，当破产已成为必然时，抑制借贷的动力几乎消失。 他认为，"银行体系的风险敞口极大。事实上，滞胀——即疲软经济与利率上升并存的局面——是美联 储从未对任何银行进行过压力测试的场景。在美联储最严峻的' 不利情景'（adverse scenario）中，尽管 假设了高失业率的大规模衰退，但他们同时假定利率会回落至零，国债收益率也会暴跌。他们并未进行 过这样的压力测试：在高失业率的衰退中，通胀和利率不降反升……在真正恶劣的情景下，所有银行都 将崩溃。" 知名经济学家、黄金死多头彼得·希夫（Peter Schiff）近期做客《金属与矿业》（Metals and Miners）节 目，与主持人加里·戈姆（Gary Gohm）探讨了一系列经济话题，从美国消费者债务到美元的脆弱性，再 到全球储备格局的转变。他阐释了消费者和政府的轻率借贷如何与不可持续的美元主导地位交织，进而 对经济安全、通胀和黄金市场产生连锁影响。 "我认为，那些因绝望而试图借更多钱的人，可能根本不在乎自己无法偿还债务。他们只想继续借贷。 事实上，一旦你借入的金额 ...

长按即可参与 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 妙新银BoomBust周期 来源：雪球 Millions of dollars | Reserve Bank credit, related items, and | | | Averages of daily figures | | | Wednesday | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | reserve balances of depository institutions at | Week ended | | | Change from week ended | | Apr 9, 2025 | | Federal Reserve Banks | Apr 9, 2025 | | Apr 2, 2025 | | Apr 10, 2024 | | | Reserve Bank credit | 6,678,863 | - | 8,454 | । | 722,708 | 6,680,364 | | Securities held outrig ...