与此同时，亚洲市场同样情绪高涨，A股市场见证历史，上证指数突破4100点关口，日K线收出惊人的"16连阳"，单日成交额突破3.15万亿元，显 示出资金入市的汹涌态势。 大宗商品市场亦表现抢眼，受地缘政治因素及通胀预期推动，原油价格创下自去年10月以来的最大单日涨幅，白银周涨幅达10%，黄金逼近历史 高位。尽管美国非农就业数据略逊于预期，但服务业活动扩张及生产率提升的数据，叠加华盛顿方面的政策支持，令市场暂时忽略了潜在的宏观 不确定性。 华尔街风险偏好升温，资金流向高贝塔资产 随着投资者押注实体经济走强，资金正在从去年表现优异的科技巨头流向市场中风险更高的部分。除了罗素2000指数的显著表现外，Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) 在短短几天内吸引了100亿美元资金。 更具投机性的资产也表现活跃，一只"Meme股"ETF飙升近15%，而一篮子被做空最严重的股票上涨了7%，创下至少自2008年以来的最佳开局。 2026年的首个交易周，全球金融市场展现出强劲的风险偏好，从华尔街到上海，股票、大宗商品及信贷市场同步走高。投资者正大举撤离去年的 防御性资产，转而押注周期性板块与高风险资产，推动主要股指创 ...

面对居高不下的住房成本，特朗普政府直接绕过美联储，动用行政力量干预抵押贷款市场，试图通 过"对冲"美联储的缩表来压低房贷利率。 当地时间1月9日，美国财政部长贝森特在明尼苏达州接受媒体采访时阐明了特朗普政府最新一轮金融干 预政策的核心逻辑。他表示，美国政府指令房利美（Fannie Mae）和房地美（Freddie Mac）购买抵押贷 款支持证券（MBS）的目标，是为了大致匹配这些债券从美联储资产负债表中流出的速度。 贝森特指出，目前美联储每月约有150亿美元的MBS到期不再投资（即"缩表"），这导致美联储庞大的 6.3万亿美元债券组合中的MBS持有量持续下降。他认为，美联储的这一操作实际上是在向市场施加反 向压力，阻碍了抵押贷款利率的进一步下行。因此，特朗普政府的策略是利用"两房"的购买力来填补这 一由央行留下的需求缺口。 所以我认为，我们的想法是大致跟上美联储的步伐，因为美联储一直在朝着相反的方向努 力。 此前，特朗普总统于周四正式下令监管"两房"的联邦住房金融局（FHFA）购买2000亿美元的MBS。 FHFA局长William Pulte周五证实，他们已经启动了首轮30亿美元的购买计划。这一指令被市场解 ...

这不是印钞，但比印钞更危险。正常情况下，买债、调流动性是央行行为，但现在特朗普推出了"总统版QE"，绕过了美联储的利率和资产购 买体系。它比QE更危险的地方在于——让"货币宽松"脱离了央行体系，变成行政指令。QE至少还有FOMC会议、投票、纪要，而现在是总统 一句话，政府金融机构立刻执行。 执行者是谁？房利美和房地美。 来源：华尔街情报圈 特朗普绕过了美联储的降息程序，亲自"下场放水"（印钞）。这不是传统意义上的QE，但效果和逻辑几乎一模一样，甚至更直接。 特朗普在Truth Social上宣布：动用2000亿美元，买入抵押贷款支持证券（MBS），目标只有一个——压低房贷利率，让买房更便宜。 钱从哪来？它们账上已经攒了2000亿美元现金。 可以把它理解成一个非常直白的过程：政府控制的机构，用账上现金，大规模买入MBS，推高债券价格，压低房贷利率。这和2008、2020年 美联储QE的传导路径一模一样，区别在于权力边界被打破了。 特朗普想压房价，赢选票。结果是推房价，需要更强刺激，更大QE，更弱货币，更高资产。 投资者瞬间明白：有"无限买家"要进场了，这也是昨晚美股期货、黄金、白银、比特币突然拉升的原因。 这不 ...

【特朗普的MBS购买计划被比作"准QE"，为交易员带来买入长债的理由】美国总统特朗普要求房利美 和房地美购买2000亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券（MBS），此举被市场视为一种"准量化宽松"（准 QE）。其核心目的是在不依赖美联储的情况下，通过行政手段直接压低长期市场利率和购房成本，从 而对美联储的货币政策形成间接施压。 ...

花旗去年底估计，如果这两家政府支持企业将其投资组合增加2500亿美元，那么债券的风险溢价可能会 下降约0.25个百分点，这可能会转化为消费者支付的抵押贷款利率出现类似幅度的下降。 策略师们指出，这样做是降低抵押贷款利率的一种相对直接的方法，因为对抵押贷款支持证券(MBS)的 需求增加会转化为风险溢价收窄，从而影响到基础抵押贷款。 美国全国住房会议主席兼首席执行官David Dworkin,表示"如果特朗普政府允许房利美和房地美扩大其保 留的投资组合，毫无疑问，这将对抵押贷款利率造成下行压力——可能至少下降0.25个百分点，甚至更 多。" 房地美周四表示，截至1月8日当周，30年期抵押贷款利率平均为6.16%，接近2024年10月以来的最低水 平。 美国总统特朗普指示房利美和房地美购买2000亿美元的抵押贷款债券(MBS)，他将此举视为在11月中期 选举前降低住房成本的最新举措。特朗普周四在社交媒体上宣布了这一举措，称"这将降低抵押贷款利 率，降低每月还款额，使拥有房屋的成本更加实惠。" 他还补充说，他在第一任期内决定不出售房利美和房地美，使它们积累了"2000亿美元的现金"，而他之 所以发表这一声明，正是因为 ...

2025年最后一天，美联储的"金融管道"以746亿美元的历史流量向市场紧急注水，这个数字甚至打破了两个月前的纪录。 市场的反应却出乎意料，美元并未 因此走强，反而在不到24小时内，离岸人民币汇率一举升破6.97关口，创下近20个月的新高。 与此同时，黄金价格也在新年首个交易日再度上扬。 进口依赖型行业同样从中获益。 煤炭、钢铁、化工原料等行业原材料半数以上依赖海外采购，人民币升值使其进口成本直接下降。 某华东大型纸企采购总 监表示，进口木浆按当前汇率折算，比半年前每吨便宜近400元人民币。 人民币内在价值的提升同样关键。 2026年1月1日，数字人民币正式迈入2.0时代，六大国有行开始为实名钱包余额按0.05%的活期利率计付利息，使其具备 了储蓄功能。 截至2025年11月末，数字人民币累计交易金额已达16.7万亿元，并在跨境支付中占比显著提升。 跨境支付系统CIPS的优化也为人民币注入动力。 新版业务规则计划在2026年2月施行，届时将放宽境外机构接入限制。 目前CIPS已拥有190家直接参与者和 1567家间接参与者，覆盖全球主要地区。 黄金市场在2025年经历了历史性牛市，国际金价年内涨幅一度超过70% ...

Core Viewpoint - DBS Bank's report indicates that with the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle, bonds have reestablished their role as a risk-hedging tool against equities, suggesting investors shift cash into credit bonds, particularly focusing on A-rated or BBB-rated investment-grade credit bonds, while maintaining a portfolio duration of 5 to 7 years [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - Despite geopolitical tensions and macro uncertainties in 2025, global markets exhibited an overall upward trend, with investment-grade credit bonds showing lower absolute returns compared to equities but significantly lower volatility [1]. - During market risk events, while global equities experienced pullbacks, the bond market remained resilient, effectively protecting investment portfolios and demonstrating defensive resilience in asset allocation [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategy and Recommendations - The report refutes the notion that bonds have lost their hedging function in investment portfolios, highlighting a shift in correlation between bonds and stocks, making bonds a quality safe-haven asset [2]. - Investors are advised to adopt a quality enhancement strategy, favoring A-rated and BBB-rated investment-grade credit bonds, as healthy corporate balance sheets and a lack of risk-free assets support their valuation despite current credit spreads being at historical lows [2]. - Caution is advised regarding high-yield bonds, which are perceived to be overpriced with spreads lower than average levels during non-recession periods, presenting asymmetric downside risks amid slowing economic growth [2]. - For investors seeking excess returns, the report recommends a combination of government bonds with Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to enhance yield [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The report concludes that under the macro conditions of stable global growth and policy easing, credit products are expected to perform well, but investors should remain cautious about credit quality to navigate future market volatility [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's plan to purchase $40 billion in Treasury bonds monthly is expected to lower borrowing costs and revise Wall Street's debt issuance forecasts for 2026, with potential purchases reaching $525 billion [1][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve will begin purchasing Treasury bonds to alleviate short-term interest rate pressures by rebuilding financial system reserves [1]. - Starting in December, the Fed will also reinvest the proceeds from unwinding agency debt, which is expected to relieve accumulated pressure from months of asset reduction [2]. - The Fed's aggressive actions indicate a low tolerance for financing pressures, with expectations to become the primary buyer of U.S. Treasury bonds in the coming months [5]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Barclays estimates that the Fed may purchase nearly $525 billion in Treasury bonds by 2026, significantly higher than previous forecasts of $345 billion, while net issuance to private investors is expected to drop to $220 billion from $400 billion [5]. - JPMorgan anticipates the Fed will maintain a $40 billion monthly purchase rate until mid-April, then slow to $20 billion, with total purchases reaching approximately $490 billion by 2026 [7]. - RBC Capital Markets suggests that the Fed's actions are more about absorbing Treasury issuance rather than increasing reserves, indicating a coordinated effort with the Treasury to manage issuance volatility [8]. Group 3: Implications for Market Dynamics - The Fed's bond purchases are expected to support swap spreads and the SOFR-federal funds rate basis trades, although they may not completely eliminate market volatility, especially around year-end [2][10]. - Deutsche Bank notes that the Fed's cautious approach to transitioning to ample money supply is beneficial for stabilizing the repo market and supporting favorable conditions for SOFR and front-end swap spreads [6]. - TD Securities predicts that the Fed will purchase $425 billion in Treasury bonds through RMP and MBS reinvestments in FY2026, which will account for a significant portion of net supply [9].

美联储资产负债表的"量化紧缩"（QT）时代已经落幕，一个旨在重新扩张资产负债表的新阶段或将很 快开启。市场正在屏息以待一个新缩写词——RMP（储备管理购买），尽管美联储官员强调其与量化 宽松（QE）存在本质区别，但这似乎并不会妨碍投资者将其视为"新一代QE"。 随着美联储于本周一正式停止缩减其资产负债表，华尔街的目光迅速转向了下一步。由于美国货币市场 持续动荡，尤其是规模高达12万亿美元的回购市场利率近来出现令人不安的波动，分析师普遍认为，美 联储可能最快在下周的议息会议上，就会宣布启动旨在增加系统流动性的"储备管理购买"（RMP）。 根据Evercore ISI分析师Marco Casiraghi和Krishna Guha的预测，美联储可能宣布从明年1月开始，每月购 买350亿美元的短期国债（T-bills）。考虑到每月约有150亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）到期，此 举将使美联储的资产负债表每月净增长约200亿美元。 这一潜在的政策转向，标志着美联储的流动性管理策略从"抽水"转向"放水"，旨在确保金融体系拥有充 足的准备金以平稳运行。对于投资者而言，RMP的宣布时点、规模和具体操作方式，将成为判断未来 ...

Core Viewpoint - The end of the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening (QT) marks a transition to a new phase, with ongoing liquidity pressures in the short-term funding markets despite the cessation of QT [1][3][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions - The QT process officially ended on December 1, 2023, after significantly reducing the reserve levels in the banking system [1][3]. - The Federal Reserve plans to maintain its balance sheet at approximately $6.1 trillion, allowing agency debt and MBS to mature and using the proceeds to purchase Treasury securities [6]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve will initiate a "reserve management purchase" program in January 2026, involving monthly purchases of about $20 billion in Treasury securities and reinvesting $20 billion in MBS [9]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The end of QT has shifted market focus to the Federal Reserve's future balance sheet management strategies, with expectations of potential asset purchases to stabilize the financial system [3][4]. - The Treasury is expected to net issue $870 billion in Treasury securities in 2026, with the Federal Reserve purchasing approximately $480 billion, leading to a reduced net supply for non-Federal Reserve buyers [12]. - The mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market is anticipated to face significant supply pressure as approximately $2.05 trillion in agency debt and MBS mature and enter the market [14]. Group 3: Funding Market Conditions - Despite the end of QT, liquidity tensions in the funding markets remain acute, with the usage of the Federal Reserve's Standing Repo Facility (SRF) reaching $26 billion, the second-highest level since 2020 [5][15]. - Recent data indicates that repo rates have been trading about 6 basis points above their fair value, reflecting structural shifts in reserve demand [15][18]. - The market is divided on the interpretation of these funding pressures, with some analysts suggesting that more aggressive measures may be needed from the Federal Reserve to stabilize short-term funding costs [18][19].