Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve may adjust its asset portfolio to better align its assets and liabilities, mitigating interest rate risks and improving its negative asset situation, which could provide crucial support to the U.S. Treasury and reshape the supply-demand dynamics in the short-term bond market [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Strategy - The Federal Reserve is likely to gradually reinvest the proceeds from maturing mortgage-backed securities (MBS) into short-term Treasury bills (T-bills) and convert maturing Treasury bonds into shorter-term notes, aiming to shorten liability durations and reduce the impact of long-term interest rate fluctuations on its balance sheet [3]. - The potential scale of this operation could approach $1 trillion, as the Treasury has recently issued about $1 trillion in short-term notes, with the Federal Reserve possibly becoming a major buyer, creating new demand in the front end of the market [3]. Group 2: Impact on Treasury and Bond Market - The U.S. Treasury has been increasing short-term bond issuance to address the expanding fiscal deficit and accelerate cash reserves replenishment after the debt ceiling was raised in June. The Federal Reserve's shift towards short-term Treasury investments could absorb some of the new supply, alleviating concerns about supply-demand imbalances in the short-term bond market [3]. - This adjustment may enhance liquidity in the short-term bond market but could also increase volatility in long-term bonds. Additionally, a large-scale shift to short-term Treasury securities may indirectly affect the stability of the overnight funding market [4].

当前，美国正计划让房利美和房地美重新上市，预计今年晚些时候启动的程序旨在筹集约300亿美元资 金。二十年前，为避免金融危机期间灾难性损失，政府曾接管这两家机构。长期以来，它们通过购买银 行抵押贷款、打包成债券并担保违约还款，在推动美国住房拥有率方面扮演核心角色。 但行业观察人士指出，将两家机构从政府托管中剥离面临多重挑战，任何操作失误都可能削弱市场对政 府支持的信心。特朗普政府官员，包括财政部长斯科特·贝森特和联邦住房金融局局长比尔·普尔特，近 几个月来多次强调"防止抵押贷款利率上涨是首要任务"。 房地美前首席执行官戴维·布里克曼坦言："这是个难解的题，尤其在短期内。若不提供更明确的担保或 拓展盈利模式，解除托管的同时不推高利率几乎不可能。"财政部和联邦住房金融局尚未对此置评。 在规模超6万亿美元的机构抵押贷款支持证券(MBS)市场中，投资者似乎对政府缓解潜在混乱的举措抱 有信心。这包括特朗普本人承诺维持对两家机构的"隐性担保"。近期MBS风险溢价几乎未变，显示交易 员仍相信即便私有化后，政府仍会为危机中的房利美和房地美提供支持。 不过，Pimco提醒市场不可忽视风险。这家管理超2万亿美元资产的资管巨头指出： ...

彼得首先直言美国消费者面临日益加剧的财务压力背后的心理状态。他指出，对许多深陷债务泥潭的人 而言，当破产已成为必然时，抑制借贷的动力几乎消失。 他认为，"银行体系的风险敞口极大。事实上，滞胀——即疲软经济与利率上升并存的局面——是美联 储从未对任何银行进行过压力测试的场景。在美联储最严峻的' 不利情景'（adverse scenario）中，尽管 假设了高失业率的大规模衰退，但他们同时假定利率会回落至零，国债收益率也会暴跌。他们并未进行 过这样的压力测试：在高失业率的衰退中，通胀和利率不降反升……在真正恶劣的情景下，所有银行都 将崩溃。" 知名经济学家、黄金死多头彼得·希夫（Peter Schiff）近期做客《金属与矿业》（Metals and Miners）节 目，与主持人加里·戈姆（Gary Gohm）探讨了一系列经济话题，从美国消费者债务到美元的脆弱性，再 到全球储备格局的转变。他阐释了消费者和政府的轻率借贷如何与不可持续的美元主导地位交织，进而 对经济安全、通胀和黄金市场产生连锁影响。 "我认为，那些因绝望而试图借更多钱的人，可能根本不在乎自己无法偿还债务。他们只想继续借贷。 事实上，一旦你借入的金额 ...

长按即可参与 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 妙新银BoomBust周期 来源：雪球 Millions of dollars | Reserve Bank credit, related items, and | | | Averages of daily figures | | | Wednesday | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | reserve balances of depository institutions at | Week ended | | | Change from week ended | | Apr 9, 2025 | | Federal Reserve Banks | Apr 9, 2025 | | Apr 2, 2025 | | Apr 10, 2024 | | | Reserve Bank credit | 6,678,863 | - | 8,454 | । | 722,708 | 6,680,364 | | Securities held outrig ...