6 证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 8 月 7 日 晨会纪要 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 一、产业综合组： 美国总统特朗普表示，美国将对芯片和半导体征收约 100%的关税。虽然目前还没 有详细的规则披露，但是根据 2024 年中国对美国半导体出口总额约 30 亿美元，进 口约 22 亿美元分析，总体上半导体对美进出口金额占中国年度出口总额比例较小， 因此关税即使涉及中国芯片产业，对中国芯片产业的影响也不大。 盛美上海公布了 2025 年半年报，上半年营业收入 32.6 亿，同比增长 35.8%，毛利 率 50.7%，继续维持高位，实现归属母公司净利润 6.95 亿，同比增长 57%。二季度 公司收入 19.6 亿，同比增长 32%，净利润 4.5 亿，同比增长 23.8%，总体业绩继续 维持高增长。分项目看，公司在半导体清洗设备领域全球市场占有率达 8.0%，位 居全球第四，中国市场占有率超 30%，位列第二；在半导体电镀设备领域，公司全 球市场占有率达 8.2%，位列全球第三 。 由于公司电镀设备可供应半导体前道制 程和后道先进封装，而这些领域的国产设备竞争较弱，但需求前景较好，因此我们 ...

坐拥昔日销冠优势的理想汽车，正在陷入多元化争议和阶段性困境之中。 对于近期理想i8与乘龙卡车安全性碰撞测试引发的争议，相关方均已作出公开回应。 其中乘龙卡车发布声明认为，理想方面已构成严重侵权，超过正常商业竞争范畴；乘龙卡车安全体系严 格遵循"真实场景防护"原则；东风柳汽坚决反对任何通过贬损同业、恶意攀比等破坏行业生态的行为。 理想汽车的回应态度有所收敛。其表示，本次测试目的只是为了验证和提升理想i8的被动安全性能，并 非针对其他任何品牌进行产品质量评价，测试结果也不应被解读为对其他品牌产品质量的论断。 对比来看，就在几天前，理想汽车产品负责人还"隔空喊话"乘龙卡车：要不来复测一把两车对撞？ 新能源车市的演进，像一部跌宕起伏的商战剧。理想汽车这个曾经的销量冠军，正在出现"踩刹车"迹 象。 去年6月，2024新财富500创富榜发布，李想以651.7亿元身家位列第34位，较2023年的百余位大幅上 升。不过从今年来看，其身家已经缩水不少。 原因之一在于理想股价的表现不如人意。公司在近日发布旗下首款纯电动SUV i8，但因为主流声音对 其性价比存在质疑，新车陷入"高价低配"争议，市场反应不及预期，公司股价一度遭遇大 ...

Group 1 - The core idea emphasizes that long-term investment returns are primarily driven by intrinsic value growth rather than market price fluctuations, with only 0.6% of returns attributed to price changes [1][2] - Apple's net profit doubled from 2016 to 2024, while its stock price increased approximately ninefold, indicating that a significant portion of the returns came from P/E ratio expansion, known as "Davis Double" [3][5] - The investment philosophy suggests that investing in great companies can yield unexpected additional returns, while investing in mediocre companies may lead to losses [6][19] Group 2 - The article discusses the irrationality of the market, which provides opportunities for value investors to capitalize on mispriced assets [7] - A specific example is given regarding Kuaishou's new recommendation system, which showed minimal improvements in user engagement but led to a significant stock price increase, highlighting the disconnect between market sentiment and actual financial performance [9] - The importance of a sound investment decision-making process is stressed, as it is more critical than the final investment outcome [10][11] Group 3 - The author expresses skepticism about short-term stock price movements driven by hype, as seen in the case of Alibaba and Tencent, where the actual business performance did not align with market expectations [12][13] - The article critiques investment strategies that lack a solid analytical foundation, emphasizing the need for understanding the business model and financial metrics before investing [16][18] - It concludes that true value investors focus on the intrinsic value of companies and the potential for price correction based on that value, rather than speculative trading [19]

Group 1 - The phenomenon of "capital clustering" is significant in the current structural market of A-shares, with funds concentrating in specific sectors such as core assets, growth tracks, and high-dividend stocks, leading to substantial short-term price increases [1] - On June 27, the banking sector experienced a sharp decline, with several banks like Hangzhou Bank, Chongqing Bank, and Qingdao Bank dropping over 4%, while others like Jiangsu Bank and Agricultural Bank fell more than 3% [1] - The banking sector has seen an increase of nearly 40% in 2024 and over 15% this year, with some individual bank stocks experiencing even greater gains, driven by the low yield environment for traditional savings and investment products [1] Group 2 - Investing in high-dividend assets is not without risks, as these assets are primarily concentrated in traditional industries like energy, finance, and real estate, which are closely tied to macroeconomic cycles [2] - The excessive pursuit of high-dividend assets can lead to valuation bubbles, resulting in rapid adjustments in these assets, especially if companies lack growth momentum [2] - Companies' dividend policies are not fixed and can change due to various factors, including operational conditions and strategic planning, which may lead to reduced or suspended dividends even for historically stable dividend-paying companies [2] Group 3 - In the current low-interest-rate environment, high-dividend assets are attractive due to the potential for steady cash dividends alongside gradual price appreciation, but caution is advised to avoid falling into the "high-dividend trap" [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "Davis Double Play" phenomenon observed in the leading A-share pet food companies, Zhongchong Co., Ltd. and Guobao Pet, where both profit growth and valuation (P/E ratio) have increased simultaneously since 2024 [1][14]. Group 1: Profit Growth and Valuation - Profit growth for both companies began to accelerate in Q2 2023, with significant growth observed by Q2 2024, leading to a valuation rebound [2]. - Zhongchong Co., Ltd. has a TTM P/E ratio of approximately 45.7, with a market cap of about 178.34 billion [8][11]. - Guobao Pet has a TTM P/E ratio of 63.92, significantly higher than the industry average of 41.41, reflecting a market premium for its high growth performance [10]. Group 2: EPS and P/E Relationship - Zhongchong Co., Ltd. experienced a price increase of approximately 237% over 10 months, while Guobao Pet saw a 160% increase over 9 months, illustrating the appeal of the "Davis Double Play" [11][12]. Group 3: Conditions for Davis Double Play - Not all industries with significant profit increases can achieve simultaneous valuation re-evaluation; key factors include market perceptions of profit sustainability, growth visibility, capital requirements, and industry risks [15]. - The "Davis Double Play" mechanism occurs when both EPS and P/E rise, leading to accelerated stock price increases [16]. Group 4: Industry Comparisons - Industries characterized by cyclical or commodity-driven profits often face valuation declines despite profit increases, as seen in sectors like steel and agriculture [20][22]. - In contrast, growth-oriented industries like pet food benefit from sustained consumer demand and brand penetration, leading to higher valuations [23]. Group 5: Summary Insights - Significant profit increases do not guarantee valuation increases; the market's assessment of profit sustainability and visibility is crucial [30]. - High capital expenditure industries tend to have lower valuations even with profit increases, while low capital requirement sectors can achieve higher valuations [24][25]. - Investor sentiment and thematic investment trends can significantly influence valuation re-evaluations, with sectors like pet food currently attracting sustained interest [27].

美国掀起的所谓"对等关税"仍在持续，全球金融市场近期跌宕起伏。 回顾过去200多年的资本市场，跌宕起伏的走势并不能真正伤害稳健的投资者。 这是因为他们的投资具有超强 的纪律性：坚持以合理的估值购买那些具有强劲资产负债表、盈利真实、现金流强劲，分红可持续、具有提价 能力的公司。 这些公司的生命周期已经超过数十年甚至上百年，它们或矿产资源丰富，或地理位置绝佳，或品牌深入人心， 或在同行业中成本最低，或处于自然垄断地位等等。如果一家公司没有经历过不同经济周期的考验，没有在衰 退中生存下来，投资者则无法判断该公司的品质。 投资并不需要担忧"时代的呼声"，每一个时代都有所谓"不容错过"的热门股让无数投资者付出了沉重的代价， 投资者通常会为那些听上去充满奇异特性的公司赋予最高市盈率。 股价可以简化成每股收益与市盈率的乘积，过去4年A股有一批低估值高现金流高分红的公司，由于盈利与估 值双双提升而股价翻倍；同样也有一批热门公司因为盈利下降了一半，而估值以更大的幅度下降，股价跌幅超 90%。 正如资深投资者所言，在投资中，你不仅需要知道什么可行什么不可行，而且需要知道为什么可行为什么不可 行。你只有深刻理解为什么可行为什么不可 ...

投资小红书-第236期 美国掀起的所谓"对等关税"仍在持续，全球金融市场近期跌宕起伏。 "戴维斯双杀"是戴维斯家族竭力避免的投资类型，但等待热门股的往往是"戴维斯双杀"。戴维斯家族曾 举过一个例子：一只热门成长股，每股盈利1元，以60倍的市盈率标价，该股价格为每股60元。如果该 股盈利下降一半，同时投资者不再抱有幻想，只愿意支付10倍的市盈率，那么这只60元的股票瞬间便会 跌到5元。泡沫破裂，"戴维斯双杀"带来的结果是跌幅高达91%。 知名科技股基金经理"木头姐"管理的ARKK的净值在过去5年的时间中跌幅超过70%，亏损超过上百亿美 元。在不同的时代，都有押注热门股公司的投资者在某个时间段看起来像投资天才，但他们却最终会成 为财富杀手。 回顾过去200多年的资本市场，跌宕起伏的走势并不能真正伤害稳健的投资者。 这是因为他们的投资具 有超强的纪律性：坚持以合理的估值购买那些具有强劲资产负债表、盈利真实、现金流强劲，分红可持 续、具有提价能力的公司。 这些公司的生命周期已经超过数十年甚至上百年，它们或矿产资源丰富，或地理位置绝佳，或品牌深入 人心，或在同行业中成本最低，或处于自然垄断地位等等。如果一家公司没有经历 ...

市盈率的第三种情况是寡头垄断型 、 低增长 、 成熟工业制造业的市盈率 ， 这种市盈率都是比较 低的 ， 因为它未来利润增长缓慢 ， 已经到了成熟期 ， 所以可以把它当做一种债券或者分红股来 投资 。 最典型的就是格力电器 ， 格力电器早年的时候 ， 它的行业市占率很低 ， 比如说格力电 器从 2000 年到 2005 年 ， 它的市值一直不涨 ， 一直是 50 亿的市值 ， 当时格力电器有将近 200 亿的营收 ， 它的净利率很低 ， 只有 2% 、 3% ， 那 200 亿的营收呢 ， 只有 5 个亿的利润 ， 5 亿利润 ， 50 亿市值是当年估值最低点 。 格力电器从 2005 年开始之后 ， 一系列的改革措 施 ， 降本增效 ， 提高净利率 ， 盈利能力 、 毛利率都极大增加 ， 导致格力电器的利润从 4 个 亿涨到今天的 400 多亿 ， 涨了 100 倍 ， 市值也涨了 100 倍 ， 由 50 亿涨到 4000 多亿 。 格 力电器最好的投资机会应该是 2005 年前后 ， 当时行业市占率比较低的时候 ， 投资到现在 ， 格 力电器的空调占到中国的一半左右 ， 已经进入了寡头垄断的一个格局 ， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the declining performance of Juewei Foods and the broader challenges facing the marinated food industry, indicating a significant downturn in both revenue and profit for major players in the sector [1][4][8]. Group 1: Company Performance - Juewei Foods' market value peaked at 600 billion RMB in 2021, with rapid expansion from 9,053 stores in 2017 to 12,399 stores in 2020, and revenue growth from 3.85 billion RMB to 5.276 billion RMB during the same period [3]. - In 2024, Juewei Foods reported a revenue of 6.257 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 13.84%, and a net profit of 227 million RMB, down 34.04% [4][5]. - The first quarter of 2025 continued the downward trend, with revenue of 1.501 billion RMB, a decrease of 11.47%, and a net profit of 120 million RMB, down 27.29% [4]. Group 2: Industry Challenges - The marinated food industry is experiencing a collective downturn, with Juewei Foods, Zhou Hei Ya, and Huang Shang Huang all reporting declines in revenue and profit [9][10]. - Zhou Hei Ya's revenue in 2024 was 2.451 billion RMB, down 10.66%, while Huang Shang Huang reported 1.739 billion RMB, a decline of 9.44% [9]. - The industry faces challenges such as the expiration of growth dividends, with a net closure of approximately 23,000 stores nationwide in the past year, indicating a contraction in the market [10]. Group 3: Price and Cost Dynamics - The marinated food sector is grappling with significant fluctuations in raw material prices, particularly for duck products, which constitute over 50% of Juewei Foods' procurement costs [10][11]. - Prices for duck necks surged from 12 RMB/kg to 27 RMB/kg between 2021 and 2023, a rise of over 125%, before falling to 10 RMB/kg in late 2023, a decrease of 63% [11]. - Despite the drop in raw material costs, Juewei Foods has been slow to adjust its prices, leading to reduced consumer demand and continued profit decline [11]. Group 4: Business Model and Strategy - Juewei Foods relies heavily on franchisees, with over 90% of its stores being franchises, which has previously driven rapid growth [12]. - However, due to declining demand, the company has shifted its strategy from aggressive expansion to focusing on enhancing single-store revenue and supporting franchisee survival [12][13]. - The average single-store revenue in the first half of 2024 was 169,000 RMB, reflecting an 11% year-on-year decline [13]. Group 5: Investment and Future Outlook - Juewei Foods has historically invested in various food-related companies, but recent investments have resulted in losses, with a reported investment loss of 160 million RMB in 2024 [14]. - Cumulative investment losses over the past three years exceed 370 million RMB, indicating challenges in both operational and investment growth avenues [14]. - The company is currently facing a "dead end," with both core business and investment strategies proving ineffective in driving performance improvement [14].

极限封锁并不能折断优秀企业的翅膀，华为就是一个可用于观察的典型例子。在美国挑起贸易摩 擦的8年时间里，华为事实上已经被美国"脱钩断链"。然而，华为2024年财报显示，其营收规模 已接近历史巅峰，而来自美洲的营收仅占4.2%。华为让世人看到在美国打压之下，企业可以通 过"深淘滩、低作堰"集中精力做好自己的事而变得更强大。 "深淘滩、低作堰"是2000多年前李冰父子修都江堰时留下的治水准则，也是华为的经营准则之 一，它同样适用于投资。无论外在环境如何变化，投资者用长期资金买入低估的优质企业，长期 来说很难亏损。 投资小红书-第234期 全球股市迎来疯狂一周，各大股指跌宕起伏，千点跌幅、暴涨暴跌比比皆是。 美国挑起的"对等关税"，成为扰动股市的最大利空因素。事实上，对于股市来说，任何极端情况 都可能遇到。翻开资本市场的历史，你会看到曾有一天，道指单日大跌超过22%，那就是1987年 10月19日的美股大崩盘；1997年亚洲金融危机之时，恒指单日大跌13.7%，部分个股一周跌幅超 过50%。 即使最严重下跌的股市，多年后也会收复失地。对于心理上和财务上都做好准备的长期投资者来 说，极端波动并不能带来真正的伤害。回顾资 ...