证券研究报告 固收点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 24 日 25Q4 保险公司资金运用有何变化？ 投资要点： 张一帆 zhangyifan@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 根据国家金融监督管理总局数据，截至 25Q4，保险公司资金运用余额共计 38.48 万亿元，较 25Q3 增长 2.71%。其中，人身险公司资金运用余额 34.66 万亿元，财 产险公司 2.42 万亿元，分别较 25Q3 增长 2.77%和 1.18%。截至 25Q4，人身险和 财产险公司银行存款投资共计 3.04 万亿元，在此两类公司合计资金运用余额中占比 8.19%；债券投资 18.70 万亿元，占比 50.43%；股票投资 3.73 万亿元，占比 10.07%； 证券投资基金 1.97 万亿元，占比 5.31%；长期股权投资 2.83 万亿元，占比 7.64%。 截至 25Q4 险资（财产险及人身险公司，下同）债券投资余额同比增长 17.43%，其 中 25Q4 单季同比少增。截至 25Q4，险资债券投资余额为 18.70 万亿元，较 24 年 末（1 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs reports that AIA Group's stock price has increased by 62% since last year, currently valued at 1.4 times the projected intrinsic value for the next year, marking a new high for 2023 but still below the average of 1.7 times from 2013 to 2023 [1] - The target price for AIA has been raised from HKD 85 to HKD 96, equivalent to 1.4 times the projected intrinsic value for 2027, with a reiterated "Buy" rating [1] - AIA's valuation is supported by stable compound growth in new business value, intrinsic value, and post-tax operating profit, with a recovery and upward trend in intrinsic value growth [1] Group 2 - Despite concerns from investors regarding the increasing proportion of savings-type products in mainland and Hong Kong markets, the growth story for AIA remains intact, with current valuation reflecting these risks [2] - The risk-reward profile for AIA's valuation is considered attractive, with an upward revision of new business value forecasts for 2025 to 2027 by 3% to 4% and a 5% increase in net profit forecasts for 2025, primarily reflecting stock market performance in mainland and Thailand [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that AIA Group's stock price has increased by 62% since last year, currently valued at 1.4 times its projected intrinsic value for the next year, which is a new high for 2023 but still below the average of 1.7 times from 2013 to 2023 [1] - Goldman Sachs raised the target price for AIA from HKD 85 to HKD 96, which corresponds to 1.4 times the projected intrinsic value for 2027, while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - The valuation of AIA is supported by stable compound growth in new business value, intrinsic value, and post-tax operating profit [1] Group 2 - Despite concerns from investors regarding the increasing proportion of savings-type products in mainland and Hong Kong markets, the growth story for AIA remains intact, and the current valuation reflects this [2] - The risk-reward profile of AIA's current valuation is considered attractive [2] - The forecast for AIA's new business value for 2025 to 2027 has been increased by 3% to 4%, and the net profit forecast for 2025 has been raised by 5%, primarily reflecting the stock market performance in mainland China and Thailand [2]

Core Viewpoint - The profitability of life insurance companies primarily relies on the "three differences": mortality difference, expense difference, and interest difference. Due to various factors, domestic life insurance companies have mainly depended on interest difference for profits. However, with the rapid decline in interest rates and the overall decrease in market investment returns, continuing to rely on interest difference is no longer realistic. Future operations must shift towards a balance of the three differences [1][9]. Summary by Sections Reasons for Dependence on Interest Difference - The dependence of small and medium-sized companies on interest difference is attributed to three main factors: insufficient marketing capabilities leading to high marketing costs, a single product structure that heavily relies on interest difference, and aggressive marketing strategies that keep sales costs and insurance risks high [2][12][14]. Fundamental Causes of Interest Difference Dependence - The root causes of small and medium-sized companies' reliance on interest difference include a rough development model focused on scale and speed, a sales-driven operational model, and the public's limited understanding of insurance products [3][13][18]. Transitioning from Interest Difference to Balanced Three Differences - To transition from reliance on interest difference to a balanced approach, small and medium-sized life insurance companies need to focus on four areas: customer-centered product diversification, strict control of liability costs and quality management, cultivation of refined asset operation capabilities, and cost reduction while increasing efficiency [6][15][17]. Key Considerations for Achieving Balance - In the process of achieving a balance among the three differences, companies must maintain patience and a long-term perspective, as well as strategic determination to avoid being swayed by short-term pressures [8][18].

Group 1 - The life insurance industry is expected to experience historic opportunities due to wealth reallocation as retail investors seek higher reinvestment returns from maturing bank deposits by 2026 [1][2] - Profit margins are anticipated to remain stable, as the pricing rate cut in September 2025 is expected to offset margin erosion caused by changes in product mix [1][2] - The preference for leading companies such as China Life (601628) and Ping An (601318) is highlighted, as a K-shaped growth divergence is expected between large and small insurance companies amid tightening regulations [1] Group 2 - The Chinese life insurance industry is entering a golden period this year, driven by the maturity of substantial bank deposits (estimated to exceed 70 trillion RMB) deposited after 2021, with retail investors facing a low reinvestment rate environment [2] - The shift from savings-type products to dividend-type products is expected to help insurance companies reduce new business costs and mitigate interest rate risks, while the recovery of protection-type products may serve as a gradual long-term driver for margin improvement [2] - The non-auto insurance business is expected to see a reasonable cost rate adjustment, and the management of auto insurance costs is anticipated to improve under regulatory support [1]

Group 1 - The life insurance industry is expected to experience a historic opportunity for wealth reallocation by 2026, as retail investors seek higher reinvestment returns for maturing bank deposits [1][2] - Profit margins are projected to remain stable, as the pricing rate cut in September 2025 will offset the margin erosion caused by changes in product mix [1][2] - The preference for leading companies such as China Life (02628) and Ping An (02318) is highlighted, as a K-shaped growth differentiation is anticipated between large and small insurance companies amid tightening regulations [1] Group 2 - The property insurance sector is expected to see a premium growth of 4%, with further improvement in the combined cost ratio (CoR) due to regulatory tailwinds [1] - The non-auto insurance business is expected to rationalize expense ratios, while auto insurance expense management is being strengthened, and pricing for new energy vehicle insurance is gradually being relaxed [1] - Despite the property insurance sector being less favored in a bull market, leading companies like China Pacific Insurance (02328) are expected to benefit the most and achieve the best industry performance [1]

Core Insights - The insurance industry in China has shown robust growth in premium income, with a total of 5.76 trillion yuan in original insurance premium income for the first 11 months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.6% [1] - Life insurance premiums reached 4.42 trillion yuan, growing by 9.2%, while property insurance premiums totaled 1.34 trillion yuan, marking a 2.5% increase [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - The insurance sector's net assets reached 3.68 trillion yuan, with total assets amounting to 40.64 trillion yuan as of November 2025 [1] - Life insurance companies accounted for 4.15 trillion yuan in premium income, with a 9.1% year-on-year growth [2] - The total assets of life insurance companies were 35.75 trillion yuan, while property insurance companies held 3.15 trillion yuan in total assets [1] Group 2: Premium Income Breakdown - Life insurance premium income included 3.39 trillion yuan from life insurance, 725.2 billion yuan from health insurance, and 34.6 billion yuan from accident insurance [1] - Property insurance premium income was 1.62 trillion yuan, with significant contributions from motor vehicle insurance (843.2 billion yuan), liability insurance (133.6 billion yuan), agricultural insurance (149.4 billion yuan), health insurance (218.7 billion yuan), and accident insurance (54.6 billion yuan) [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The growth in life insurance premiums is primarily driven by the sales of savings-type products and competitive settlement rates in linked insurance products [2] - The implementation of the "reporting and operation integration" policy has led to a significant reduction in sales costs for bank insurance channels, boosting new policy sales [2] - In the property insurance sector, non-auto insurance remains the main growth driver, particularly in health insurance, which has seen strong demand and manageable risks [2]

Core Insights - The insurance industry in China has shown robust growth in premium income, with a total of 5.76 trillion yuan in original insurance premium income for the first 11 months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.6% [1] - Life insurance premiums reached 4.42 trillion yuan, growing by 9.2%, while property insurance premiums totaled 1.34 trillion yuan, marking a 2.5% increase [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - The insurance sector's net assets reached 3.68 trillion yuan, with total assets amounting to 40.64 trillion yuan as of November 2025 [1] - Life insurance companies accounted for 4.15 trillion yuan in premium income, with a 9.1% year-on-year growth [2] - The total assets of life insurance companies were 35.75 trillion yuan, while property insurance companies held 3.15 trillion yuan in total assets [1] Group 2: Premium Breakdown - Life insurance premium income included 3.39 trillion yuan from life insurance, 725.2 billion yuan from health insurance, and 34.6 billion yuan from accident insurance [1] - Property insurance premium income was 1.62 trillion yuan, with significant contributions from motor vehicle insurance (843.2 billion yuan), liability insurance (133.6 billion yuan), agricultural insurance (149.4 billion yuan), health insurance (218.7 billion yuan), and accident insurance (54.6 billion yuan) [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The growth in life insurance premiums is primarily driven by the sales of savings-type products, with competitive settlement rates in linked insurance products attracting consumers [2] - The implementation of the "reporting and operation integration" policy has led to a significant reduction in sales costs for bank insurance channels, boosting new policy sales [2] - In the property insurance sector, while motor insurance remains stable, non-motor insurance is identified as the main growth driver, particularly in health insurance due to strong demand and manageable risks [2]

Summary of Conference Call on the Insurance Industry Industry Overview - The insurance industry is projected to see a maturity of wealth management products reaching 25 trillion, providing room for premium growth, with recent "New Year" data indicating strong performance across companies, suggesting growth potential in the industry [1][3] - Despite profit pressures, historical data shows that industry market value remains stable or increases even in years of declining profit growth, indicating that asset expectations and changes in investment returns are more critical valuation drivers [1][4] Key Insights - Short-term projections indicate that the life insurance market could reach 4.8 trillion by 2026, representing a 10% year-on-year growth, supported by both savings and protection product demands [1][5] - The regulatory requirement for 30% of new premiums to be invested in A-shares is expected to result in an operational net cash flow of approximately 4.8 trillion for life insurance by 2026, translating to an influx of 300 billion to 760 billion into the market [1][6] - The preference for stable income-generating equity assets, such as value stocks and cyclical bottom stocks, is driven by the need to address duration gaps and investment demands in a low-interest-rate environment [1][6] Profitability and Valuation - Profitability in the insurance sector is influenced by the difference between investment returns and liability costs, with a clear trend of improving liability costs, leading to optimistic market sentiment regarding the widening of interest spreads [1][7] - The insurance sector's current valuation is still significantly below a one-time price-to-value (PV) ratio, indicating substantial room for growth, and it is recommended to maintain a focus on the insurance sector over individual stock selection [2][8] Long-term Growth Drivers - The severe shortfall in retirement savings in China compared to the U.S. presents a significant long-term growth opportunity for the insurance sector, with projections suggesting that the proportion of life insurance in retirement assets could increase from 15% to 20% by 2035, maintaining a compound annual growth rate of 10% [1][5] Conclusion - The insurance industry is positioned for both short-term and long-term growth, with favorable regulatory conditions and market dynamics supporting a positive outlook for investment and profitability [1][2][6]

Core Insights - The insurance industry is undergoing significant transformation driven by rising interest rates, inflation, and emerging risks, necessitating a shift from traditional risk assessment to more proactive management strategies [5][6][8]. Non-Life Insurance - The U.S. non-life insurance sector achieved an underwriting profit of $9.3 billion in Q1 2024, a significant recovery from a loss of $8.5 billion in the same period last year, driven by multiple rounds of rate increases [10]. - The industry faces challenges including rising claims costs due to social inflation and geopolitical tensions, which require careful risk assessment and management [11][16]. - Global natural disaster losses exceeded $100 billion for the first time in six years, highlighting the need for reinsurance companies to closely monitor and reassess underwriting risks [11][16]. Life Insurance and Annuities - The high interest rate environment has stimulated demand for savings-related products, with U.S. annuity sales reaching $385 billion in 2023, a 23% increase year-over-year [21]. - There is a significant protection gap in the U.S. life insurance market, estimated at $25 trillion, and a global retirement savings gap of approximately $70 trillion [25][26]. - Life insurance companies must modernize core systems and optimize processes to sustain long-term growth and profitability [25][32]. Group Insurance and Employee Benefits - The group insurance sector has benefited from high renewal rates and wage inflation, but growth may slow due to a projected increase in unemployment rates [33][34]. - Employers are increasingly recognizing the importance of benefits packages in attracting and retaining talent, with over 70% of respondents in a consumer confidence survey indicating that benefits are crucial [34]. AI and Digitalization - 76% of U.S. insurance companies have implemented generative AI in at least one business area, with claims and customer service being the primary focus [36]. - The AI liability insurance market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 80%, potentially generating $4.7 billion in annual premiums by 2032 [20]. Emerging Areas - Embedded insurance is expected to exceed $722 billion globally by 2030, driven by partnerships with industries such as automotive and real estate [20]. - Insurance companies can balance profitability and social value by investing in climate resilience and innovative underwriting practices [43][44]. New Tax Regime - The introduction of a global minimum tax rate is reshaping the tax landscape for insurance companies, particularly those in traditionally low-tax jurisdictions [46]. - Companies must adapt their organizational structures and compliance strategies to meet new tax obligations, which may impact pricing and operational strategies [46]. Conclusion - The insurance industry is at a pivotal moment, requiring companies to innovate and adapt to changing market dynamics, consumer expectations, and regulatory environments to maintain competitiveness and sustainability [48].