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杰罗姆·鲍威尔:就业与通胀的风险平衡需要美联储调整政策立场
Jin Rong Shi Bao· 2025-09-22 03:33
今年以来,在宏观政策发生重大变化的背景下,美国经济展现出韧性。就美联储的双重使命和货币政策 的双重目标而言,劳动力市场接近充分就业,通胀率仍然偏高,但已经从疫情后的峰值大幅回落。风险 平衡正在发生变化。今天首先讨论当前宏观经济形势和货币政策前景,然后讨论对货币政策框架第二次 公开审查评估结果,这一结果主要体现在今天发布的《长期目标和货币政策战略声明》修订版中。 关税政策所带来的物价压力可能引发长期通胀,就业风险也正在上升 一年前,当我在这里发言的时候,美国经济正处在拐点。央行基准利率,即联邦基金利率,已经在一年 多的时间里维持在5.25%至5.5%。当时这一限制性货币政策立场是适当的,不仅抑制了通货膨胀,而且 推进了供求关系再平衡,劳动力市场也从过热状态降温。当时,通胀上行的风险明显减弱,但失业率却 意外上升了近一个百分点。这一现象除了"大衰退"时期之外,还从来没有出现过。为此,2024年下半 年,我们调整了货币政策立场,连续三次降息,为劳动力市场在过去一年保持接近充分就业的均衡奠定 了基础。 今年以来,美国经济面临新挑战。对贸易伙伴国大幅提高关税的政策措施,正在重构全球贸易体系。更 加严格的移民政策导致劳动 ...
热点思考 | “临阵”转鸽——鲍威尔2025年杰克逊霍尔年会演讲(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
赵伟宏观探索· 2025-08-24 16:17
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference indicates a shift towards a more dovish monetary policy stance, balancing the risks of stagflation with a focus on employment and inflation [2][3][9] - Powell's analysis highlights a "fragile balance" in the labor market, with both supply and demand weakening, leading to an increased risk of unemployment [3][11] - Inflation is influenced by tariffs, which Powell describes as having a clear but potentially "one-time" effect, necessitating close monitoring of their transmission and accumulation [3][17][18] Group 2 - The long-term monetary policy framework has been revised to return to a 2% inflation target and a broader maximum employment goal, moving away from the average inflation targeting introduced in 2020 [4][22][25] - The 2025 statement serves as a retrospective confirmation of the Fed's monetary policy strategy, acknowledging the current challenges of stagflation and the need to balance dual objectives of inflation and employment [4][25][30] - The Fed's interest rate cut expectations have risen significantly, with the implied probability of a September rate cut increasing from 72% to 94%, and the number of expected cuts for the year rising from 1.9 to 2.2 [5][31][42] Group 3 - The article discusses the potential risks associated with the Fed's rate cut expectations, particularly focusing on the labor market's performance and upcoming economic data releases [5][42][43] - The baseline scenario anticipates an increase in the unemployment rate to the range of 4.4-4.5%, which would support the case for two rate cuts within the year [5][43][48] - The long-term outlook for 2026 suggests that the market may be overly optimistic regarding the number of expected rate cuts, with a need to monitor the upward pressure on long-term Treasury yields and the risk of a reversal in the dollar's value [5][53][70]
热点思考 | “临阵”转鸽——鲍威尔2025年杰克逊霍尔年会演讲(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
申万宏源宏观· 2025-08-24 12:22
Group 1: Macroeconomic and Monetary Policy Stance - The policy tone has shifted to a "neutral dovish" stance compared to the July FOMC meeting, indicating a fragile balance in the labor market with rising risks of job losses [3][9][11] - Economic growth is slowing, with a real GDP growth rate of 1.2% in the first half of 2025, which is half of the 2024 rate, primarily due to a slowdown in consumer spending [10][11] - Inflation is influenced by tariffs, which are clearly visible but may be "one-time" effects, necessitating close monitoring of their transmission and accumulation [3][17][18] Group 2: Long-term Monetary Policy Framework Normalization - The long-term monetary policy framework has been revised to return to a 2% inflation target and a broad maximum employment goal, moving away from the average inflation targeting introduced in 2020 [4][22][25] - The 2025 statement serves as a retrospective confirmation of the Fed's monetary policy strategy, emphasizing the need to balance inflation and employment amid the current "stagflation" challenges [4][25][78] Group 3: Expectations and Risks of Fed Rate Cuts - The expectation for a rate cut in September has increased significantly, with implied probabilities rising from 72% to 94%, and the number of expected cuts for the year increasing from 1.9 to 2.2 [5][31][42] - The key to whether the September rate cut materializes lies not in Powell's statements but in the upcoming non-farm payroll report and inflation data [5][42][43] - The macroeconomic scenario for 2026 suggests persistent inflation and economic stabilization, but the pricing of three rate cuts may be overly optimistic, warranting caution regarding long-term bond yields and the dollar's reversal risk [5][53][60]