Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report Copper prices will remain high in the near future due to the Indonesian copper mine accident, with increased volatility. However, approaching the National Day holiday, it is recommended to reduce positions in single-sided Shanghai copper positions. The expected release of new production capacity will suppress long-term prices, but short-term restocking at the smelting end will support spot prices. On the demand side, high prices and the National Day holiday will lead to a decline in production, making the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season less prominent. Macroscopically, the issuance of policies to stabilize growth in the non-ferrous industry by eight domestic departments may boost market confidence, but high copper prices will intensify the wait-and-see sentiment among downstream enterprises [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: From September 22 to September 26, the SHFE main contract price rose slightly from 79,990 yuan/ton to 82,490 yuan/ton and then declined slightly, while the LME copper price dropped from $10,320/ton to $10,205/ton, indicating pressure on the external market. In terms of spot premiums and discounts, the premium of premium copper shrank significantly from 95 yuan/ton to 40 yuan/ton, and the discounts of flat copper and wet-process copper widened to -40 yuan/ton and -105 yuan/ton respectively, reflecting the weakening of the spot market. The LME (0 - 3) discount also widened to -$33.91/ton, and the basis weakened overall [1]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The LME copper position increased from 295,609 lots on September 22 to 297,660 lots on September 26, an increase of 0.69%. The SHFE inventory decreased slightly by 25 tons to 144,400 tons, while the COMEX inventory increased by 1,228 short tons to 322,284 short tons [2]. (2) Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: Argentina approved a $2.7 billion Los Azules copper mine project, and Ningbo Jintian Copper's 100,000 - ton A - grade copper registered production capacity was implemented, strengthening the medium - and long - term supply increase expectation. However, short - term smelting disturbances were limited, and the raw material inventory of domestic refined copper rod enterprises increased by 2.21% month - on - month [3]. - **Demand Side**: Terminal demand in industries such as electricity, construction, and automobiles was weak. Copper cable enterprises slowed down downstream pick - up due to copper prices reaching 83,000 yuan/ton, and their finished product inventory increased by 10.66% month - on - month. The operating rate of enameled machines decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 77.73% month - on - month, and the pre - holiday inventory of brass rod enterprises was significantly lower than that of the same period last year. In addition, approaching the National Day holiday, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises was expected to decrease by 9.74 percentage points to 64.04% month - on - month [4]. - **Inventory Side**: The LME inventory decreased continuously, reaching 26,557 tons on September 26, a decrease of 3.99% compared to the previous week. However, the SHFE inventory remained at a high level of 144,000 tons, and the COMEX inventory continued to accumulate, resulting in a differentiated pressure on global visible inventories. The finished product inventory of domestic refined copper rod enterprises rose to 78,900 tons [5]. 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring | Data Index | September 26, 2025 | September 25, 2025 | September 22, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM: 1 Copper | 82,660 | 82,520 | 80,140 | 140 | 0.17% | yuan/ton | | Premium Copper (Spot Premium/Discount) | 40 | 80 | 95 | -40 | -50.00% | yuan/ton | | Flat Copper (Spot Premium/Discount) | -40 | -10 | 15 | -30 | -300.00% | yuan/ton | | Wet - Process Copper (Spot Premium/Discount) | -105 | -60 | -35 | -45 | -75.00% | yuan/ton | | LME (0 - 3) | -34 | -32 | -31 | -2 | -7.48% | dollars/ton | | SHFE Price | 82,490 | 82,540 | 79,990 | -50 | -0.06% | yuan/ton | | LME Price | 10,205 | 10,276 | 10,320 | -71 | -0.69% | dollars/ton | | LME Inventory | 26,557 | 27,662 | 27,419 | -1,105 | -3.99% | tons | | SHFE Inventory | 144,400 | 144,425 | 144,775 | -25 | -0.02% | tons | | COMEX Inventory | 322,284 | 321,056 | 318,229 | 1,228 | 0.38% | short tons | [9] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - On September 26, Argentina approved a $2.7 billion Los Azules copper mine project invested by Canadian mining company McEwen Copper, and McEwen Copper enjoys the tax exemption plan of the large - scale investment incentive system (RIGI) [10]. - It is expected that the operating rate of domestic main refined copper rod enterprises will drop to 64.04% next week (September 26 - October 2), a month - on - month decrease of 9.74 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 11.14 percentage points. The main reasons are that high copper prices suppress downstream inventory demand and enterprises' pre - stocked inventory has not been significantly digested. In addition, the National Day holiday in the next week will lead to centralized production holidays of many enterprises [10]. - From September 19 to September 25, domestic main refined copper rod enterprises mainly focused on production and inventory, so the raw material inventory increased by 2.21% month - on - month, reaching 32,400 tons, and the finished product inventory increased by 10.66% month - on - month, reaching 78,900 tons [10]. - From September 19 to September 25, the operating rate of domestic main refined copper rod enterprises rose to 73.78%, a month - on - month increase of 3.28 percentage points, 0.09 percentage points lower than expected, and a year - on - year decrease of 11.14 percentage points [10]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange approved the registration of "Jintian Copper" brand A - grade copper produced by Ningbo Jintian Copper (Group) Co., Ltd., with a registered production capacity of 100,000 tons, and it can be used for the performance settlement of the cathode copper futures contract [11]. 4. Industry Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper price, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper price, TC processing fees, CFTC copper position, LME copper net long position analysis, Shanghai copper warehouse receipt volume, LME copper inventory change, COMEX copper inventory change, and SMM social inventory [12][16][18].

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On July 23, the three major A - share indexes rose and then fell. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.01% to close at 3582.30 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.37% to 11059.04 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.01% to 2310.67 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 1864.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 28.4 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The CSI 300 index showed a strong shock on July 23, closing at 4119.77, a环比 increase of 0.81 [2] Coking Coal and Coke - On July 23, the coking coal weighted index closed at 1161.9 yuan, with a环比 increase of 105.7, and the coke weighted index closed at 1717.6, with a环比 increase of 58.8 [3][4] - For coke, good steel - enterprise profits drive some blast furnaces to resume production, high daily hot - metal output supports rigid demand, and the second round of spot price increase has started. For coking coal, the notice on production verification tightens the supply expectation, and the inventory has been decreasing for 4 consecutive weeks [5] Zhengzhou Sugar - Early signs indicate a possible global sugar supply surplus in the 2025/26 season. Brazil's dry climate may add about 3.2 million tons of sugar supply. Although the US sugar price fell, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract rose slightly on July 23, and continued to rise at night due to capital support [5] Rubber - Affected by technical factors, Shanghai rubber oscillated and closed slightly lower on July 23, and fluctuated slightly at night. In June 2025, the global light - vehicle annualized sales reached 93 million vehicles, with a year - on - year increase of 2.1% to 7.73 million vehicles [6] Palm Oil - On July 23, palm oil showed a high - level wide - range shock. The highest price was 9088, the lowest was 8908, and it closed at 8994, up 0.76% from the previous day. Malaysia's palm oil production from July 1 - 20 increased by 11.24% compared with the same period last month [7] Shanghai Copper - Sino - US trade relaxation and domestic policies to stabilize the non - ferrous industry boost market sentiment, but the cooling of interest - rate cut expectations before the Fed's July meeting makes the macro - sentiment neutral. The tight supply of mainstream copper supports the price, and the market is in a tight - balance state [7] Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14140 yuan/ton on the night of July 23. On July 24, the lowest basis quotation of Xinjiang designated delivery warehouses was 430 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 54 lots [8] Iron Ore - On July 23, the main contract of iron ore 2509 closed down 0.61% at 812 yuan. The shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased slightly, and the arrivals dropped significantly, while the hot - metal output rebounded. The price may fluctuate in the short term [8] Asphalt - On July 23, the main contract of asphalt 2509 closed down 0.47% at 3594 yuan. The operating rate of asphalt plants decreased last week, and the low social inventory increased the refinery shipments. The price will fluctuate in the short term [8] Logs - The 2509 log contract opened at 841.5 on July 22, with a low of 812.5, a high of 848.5, and closed at 823, with a reduction of 3299 lots. The market faced high - level pressure. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged, and the spot trading was weak [8][9] Steel - On July 23, rb2510 closed at 3274 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3438 yuan/ton. The rising coking coal price drives up the steel cost, but the steel demand is hard to improve in the high - temperature off - season, and the price increase may slow down [9] Alumina - On July 23, ao2509 closed at 3355 yuan/ton. The "anti - involution" policy, bauxite disturbances in Guinea, and low warehouse receipts drive the price up, but the short - term production cut probability is low, and the medium - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged [9] Shanghai Aluminum - On July 23, al2509 closed at 20790 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum supply increases slightly, the downstream operating rate is still weak, and the inventory is in a low - level shock. The current price increase is driven by policies and cost, and the follow - up needs to pay attention to policy implementation and inventory pressure [10][11]