Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal industry has shown strong performance recently, with significant price increases across various segments, driven by market dynamics and expectations of monetary policy changes [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal index rose by 8.59% over the two-week period from August 18 to August 29, outperforming the CSI 300 index and ranking 5th among 31 first-level industries [1][2]. - Among sub-sectors, small metals led the gains with a 23.81% increase, followed by metal new materials (7.69%), precious metals (6.76%), industrial metals (5.71%), and energy metals (4.41%) [1][2]. Group 2: Metal Prices - As of August 29, COMEX gold closed at $3,516 per ounce, up 3.97% over the two weeks; COMEX silver closed at $40.75 per ounce, up 7.18% [3]. - Black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) price increased by 24.62% to 251,000 CNY per ton; LME tin price rose by 3.99% to $34,950 per ton [3]. - The light rare earth price index increased by 6.39%, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide rising by 10.96% to 597,500 CNY per ton [3]. Group 3: Economic Factors - Expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September have strengthened metal prices, with a notable increase in the non-ferrous ETF fund by 4.46% on August 25 [4]. - The weakening dollar has enhanced the financial attributes of metals like copper and gold, contributing to the overall price increase [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The non-ferrous metal sector is expected to continue its upward trend, with a focus on opportunities in precious metals and industrial metals such as copper and aluminum [6].

截至8月29日，有色金属ETF(512400)最新规模达88.88亿元，创成立以来新高。有色金属ETF(512400)最 新资金净流入1.12亿元，近5个交易日合计净流入10.16亿元。 高盛预计到2025年底，金价将升至每盎司3700美元；到2026年中期，金价将进一步攀升至每盎司4000美 元。东方证券指出，金价新催化剂已来袭，资金或重新回流，看好黄金板块的投资空间。4月以来黄金 在高位震荡，政治政策风险使得资金流向白银、钯、铜等金属，但美联储释放的降息信号或将成为金价 的新催化剂，使得资金重新回流黄金，持续看好金价的上涨空间。 2025年9月1日，COMEX黄金期货价格持续拉升，一度涨至3552美元/盎司，刷新历史新高！截至午间收 盘，金ETF(159834)一度涨超2%，冲击6连涨，换手18.58%，成交1.73亿元放量明显，市场交投活跃。 中信建投证券指出，美联储青睐的通胀指标核心PCE温和上涨，稳定了市场对美联储在9月议息会议降 息的预期，特朗普解雇美联储理事库克的事件持续发酵，严重威胁着美联储独立性，美元走弱，激发黄 金货币属性与铜的金融属性，商品价格突破前高在即，打开权益标的上行空间。有色板块 ...