Core Viewpoint - The recent strong performance of the non-ferrous metals sector is driven by three main factors: the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, supply-demand mismatches, and the increasing complexity of international relations [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Impact - The Federal Reserve has restarted its interest rate cut cycle, leading to increased global liquidity and benefiting commodity markets with a "dollar dividend" [1] Group 2: Supply-Demand Dynamics - Demand for copper is surging due to the global construction of smart grids - Recovery in demand for aluminum and zinc is observed as the global economy gradually recovers, particularly in the home appliance and construction sectors - On the supply side, the growth rate of global copper mining capacity is slowing, stricter environmental policies are making mining development more challenging, and external risks are increasing, particularly in cobalt mining in the Democratic Republic of Congo and nickel mining in Indonesia [1][1][1] Group 3: International Relations - The complexity of global relations is increasing, elevating the strategic importance of non-ferrous metals as critical resources [1]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal industry has shown strong performance recently, with significant price increases across various segments, driven by market dynamics and expectations of monetary policy changes [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal index rose by 8.59% over the two-week period from August 18 to August 29, outperforming the CSI 300 index and ranking 5th among 31 first-level industries [1][2]. - Among sub-sectors, small metals led the gains with a 23.81% increase, followed by metal new materials (7.69%), precious metals (6.76%), industrial metals (5.71%), and energy metals (4.41%) [1][2]. Group 2: Metal Prices - As of August 29, COMEX gold closed at $3,516 per ounce, up 3.97% over the two weeks; COMEX silver closed at $40.75 per ounce, up 7.18% [3]. - Black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) price increased by 24.62% to 251,000 CNY per ton; LME tin price rose by 3.99% to $34,950 per ton [3]. - The light rare earth price index increased by 6.39%, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide rising by 10.96% to 597,500 CNY per ton [3]. Group 3: Economic Factors - Expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September have strengthened metal prices, with a notable increase in the non-ferrous ETF fund by 4.46% on August 25 [4]. - The weakening dollar has enhanced the financial attributes of metals like copper and gold, contributing to the overall price increase [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The non-ferrous metal sector is expected to continue its upward trend, with a focus on opportunities in precious metals and industrial metals such as copper and aluminum [6].

Group 1 - COMEX gold futures prices surged to a historical high of $3552 per ounce, with gold ETFs experiencing a significant increase of over 2% and a trading volume of 1.73 billion yuan [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector showed strong performance, with the non-ferrous metals ETF rising over 2% and achieving a trading volume of 6.24 billion yuan, while the index tracking the sector increased by 2.10% [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts gold prices will reach $3700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and $4000 per ounce by mid-2026, indicating a bullish outlook for the gold sector [1] Group 2 - Citic Securities noted that the core PCE inflation indicator's moderate rise stabilized market expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, leading to a weaker dollar and enhancing the appeal of gold and copper [2] - The non-ferrous metals ETF closely tracks the CSI Non-ferrous Metals Index, which includes 50 listed companies to reflect the overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector in the market [2]