期指趋势强度

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期指:驱动因素变化,转大区间震荡模式
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 01:51
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report On July 31, all the current - month contracts of the four major stock index futures declined. The trading enthusiasm of investors has increased, with the total trading volume of each index futures rising. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF, IH, and IC decreased, while that of IM increased. The trend intensities of IF, IH, IC, and IM are all 1 [1][2][6]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - On July 31, all current - month contracts of the four major stock index futures declined: IF fell 1.68%, IH fell 1.42%, IC fell 1.26%, and IM fell 0.8% [1]. - In terms of trading volume, the total trading volume of IF increased by 18,165 lots, IH by 4,976 lots, IC by 14,305 lots, and IM by 36,495 lots. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF decreased by 3,716 lots, IH by 3,315 lots, IC by 2,760 lots, and IM increased by 1,767 lots [1][2]. b. Positions of the Top 20 Member Institutions - For IF: In IF2508, long - positions decreased by 686 and short - positions by 1950; in IF2509, long - positions decreased by 4,695 and short - positions by 3,905; in IF2512, long - positions increased by 2,332 and short - positions by 2,681; in IF2603, long - positions increased by 268 and short - positions by 519 [5]. - For IH: In IH2508, long - positions decreased by 161 and short - positions by 600; in IH2509, long - positions decreased by 873 and short - positions by 1,372; in IH2512, long - positions decreased by 274 and short - positions by 165; IH2603 data was not released [5]. - For IC: In IC2508, long - positions decreased by 2,004 and short - positions by 1,928; in IC2509, long - positions increased by 912 and short - positions decreased by 1,078; in IC2512, long - positions increased by 696 and short - positions by 399; in IC2603, long - positions increased by 598 and short - positions by 713 [5]. - For IM: In IM2508, long - positions decreased by 2,083 and short - positions by 2,302; in IM2509, long - positions decreased by 564 and short - positions by 928; in IM2512, long - positions increased by 3,094 and short - positions by 2,320; IM2603 data was not released [5]. c. Trend Intensity The trend intensities of IF and IH are 1, and those of IC and IM are also 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 representing the most bearish view [6]. d. A - share Market Review The A - share market declined in the afternoon. The Shanghai Composite Index closed below the 10 - day moving average for the first time since regaining 3,400 points on June 24. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.18% to 3,573.21 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.73%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.66%, the North Securities 50 fell 1.16%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 fell 1.01%, the Wind All - A fell 1.36%, the Wind A500 fell 1.89%, and the CSI A500 fell 1.75%. The total trading volume of A - shares was 1.96 trillion yuan, compared with 1.87 trillion yuan the previous day. In July, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.74%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 5.2%, and the ChiNext Index rose 8.14% [6].
期指:震荡等待新的驱动
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-17 02:05
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - On June 16, all four major stock index futures contracts for the current month rose. The trading enthusiasm of investors cooled down as the total trading volume of stock index futures declined. The total positions of all four major stock index futures also decreased [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Periodic Index and Spot Data Tracking] - **Index Futures Price Changes**: On June 16, IF rose 0.38%, IH rose 0.48%, IC rose 0.46%, and IM rose 0.72%. The closing prices, price - to - spot basis, trading volumes, and open interest of each contract of the four major index futures are presented in detail [1]. - **Trading Volume Changes**: The total trading volume of index futures decreased, with IF increasing by 1520 lots, IH decreasing by 3940 lots, IC decreasing by 1262 lots, and IM decreasing by 25196 lots [2]. - **Open Interest Changes**: The total open interest of index futures decreased, with IF decreasing by 13714 lots, IH decreasing by 5088 lots, IC decreasing by 2937 lots, and IM decreasing by 12803 lots [2]. [Trend Intensity] - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and the trend intensity of IC and IM is 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6]. [Important Drivers] - In May, the national economy showed overall stable and progressive development. The year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value above designated size was 5.8%, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year - on - year, and the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.0% [6]. [Stock Market Performance] - On June 16, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.35%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.41%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.66%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 rose 1.84%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 fell 0.21%, the Wind All - A Index rose 0.54%, the Wind A500 rose 0.31%, and the CSI A500 rose 0.25%. The A - share trading volume was 1.24 trillion yuan, down from 1.5 trillion yuan the previous day [7]. [Top 20 Member Position Changes in Index Futures] - The position changes of long and short positions of the top 20 members in each contract of IF, IH, IC, and IM are presented, with some data not disclosed [5].
期指:利多落地后,节前转震荡格局
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-30 02:05
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - After the bullish factors materialized, the stock index futures are expected to enter a sideways pattern before the holiday [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Index Futures Data Tracking - On May 29, all the current - month contracts of the four major index futures rose. IF rose 0.68%, IH rose 0.25%, IC rose 1.89%, and IM rose 2.35% [1] - On this trading day, the total trading volume of index futures rebounded, indicating increased trading enthusiasm among investors. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF increased by 36,676 lots, IH by 22,078 lots, IC by 44,108 lots, and IM by 81,572 lots. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF increased by 15,516 lots, IH by 10,464 lots, IC by 16,794 lots, and IM by 27,548 lots [1][2] 3.2. Index Futures Basis - The basis data of IF, IH, IC, and IM are presented in the form of charts, showing the basis changes from May 13 to May 29 for different contract months [4] 3.3. Top 20 Member Positions Changes - The data shows the changes in long and short positions of the top 20 members for different index futures contracts. For example, for IF contracts, the long - position increase in IF2506 and IF2507 is 7,698 lots, and the short - position increase is 7,038 lots [5] 3.4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6] 3.5. Important Drivers - The Ministry of Commerce spokesperson mentioned that since the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks, both sides have maintained communication on economic and trade concerns at multiple levels. China has repeatedly negotiated with the US regarding its abuse of export control measures in the semiconductor field [6] - Uncertainty in tariffs has suppressed the rebound of US stocks. The S&P 500 briefly turned down, while Nvidia rose more than 3%. After earnings reports, Best Buy fell more than 7%, C3.ai rose nearly 21%, and Dell rose more than 5% after - hours trading. The Chinese concept stock index rose more than 1% to end a seven - day losing streak [6] - On the previous trading day, the three major A - share indexes opened and closed higher with increased trading volume. The ChiNext Index rose more than 1% to regain the 2,000 - point mark, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.7% to close at 3,363.45 points [6]
期指:消息面依旧平淡,略偏弱震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-19 02:16
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The news on the futures index remains dull, with a slightly weak and volatile trend. On May 16, the current - month contracts of the four major futures indices showed mixed performance. The total trading volume of futures indices declined on the trading day, indicating a decrease in investors' trading enthusiasm, and the total open interest also decreased [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Index Data Tracking - **Stock Index Futures Performance**: On May 16, IF fell 0.55%, IH fell 0.96%, IC rose 0.07%, and IM rose 0.36%. For example, IF2505 had a closing price of 3886.6, down 0.55%, with a basis of - 2.49 and a trading volume of 144.3 billion yuan [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: The total trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased by 13474, 1887, 19098, and 37459 lots respectively; the total open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased by 13654, 7939, 12115, and 16939 lots respectively [2]. 3.2. Futures Index Basis - The basis data of IF, IH, IC, and IM from April 17 to May 16 are presented in the form of line charts, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [4]. 3.3. Position Changes of the Top 20 Member Futures Index Holders - For different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM, the long - and short - position changes of the top 20 member futures index holders are different. For example, in IF2505, long positions decreased by 10173 lots and short positions decreased by 10027 lots [5]. 3.4. Trend Intensity and Important Drivers - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1, indicating a neutral trend [6]. - **Important Drivers**: The mortgage interest rate in Guangzhou has been raised by 10BP; Moody's has downgraded the US credit rating to Aa1, causing the US stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets to fall after trading; the container booking volume from China to the US by shipping giant Hapag - Lloyd has increased by 50% [6][7]. 3.5. A - Share Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.4% to 3367.46 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.07%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.19%, etc. The A - share market turnover was 1.12 trillion yuan, down from 1.19 trillion yuan the previous day. The market opened lower and showed a differentiated trend throughout the day, with large - cap stocks being weak and restricting the upward space of the index [7][8].