Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On August 15, 2025, the main contracts of stock index futures IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 opened slightly lower. After the opening, IF2509 and IH2509 first declined and then rose, fluctuating upward; IC2509 and IM2509 also first declined and then rose, fluctuating upward and reaching new highs in nearly 3 years, with significantly larger increases than IF2509 and IH2509 [2]. - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the market trend of the main futures contracts on this day is expected to be as follows: IF2509 will likely fluctuate strongly and attack resistance levels at 4200 and 4213 points; IH2509 will likely fluctuate strongly with resistance levels at 2838 and 2859 points; IC2509 will likely fluctuate strongly and attack resistance levels at 6530 and 6560 points; IM2509 will likely fluctuate strongly and attack resistance levels at 7050 and 7100 points [2][9][10][11]. - For the whole of August 2025, the IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts of stock index futures are expected to fluctuate strongly and attack corresponding resistance levels [12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Outlook Points - On August 15, the main contracts of stock index futures opened slightly lower. After the opening, IF2509 and IH2509 first declined and then rose, fluctuating upward; IC2509 and IM2509 also first declined and then rose, fluctuating upward and reaching new highs in nearly 3 years, with significantly larger increases than IF2509 and IH2509 [2]. - The expected intraday trends and resistance and support levels of IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 are provided [2]. Macroeconomic and Stock Market News - In July 2025, affected by multiple factors, some economic indicators fluctuated, but the cumulative growth rates of major indicators remained generally stable, employment and prices were generally stable, and the economy maintained a steady - and - progressive development trend. The national industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year and 0.38% month - on - month in July, and 6.3% year - on - year from January to July [3]. - In July, the national service production index increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and 5.9% year - on - year from January to July [3]. - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 387.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%. From January to July, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 2.84238 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. The national online retail sales were 868.35 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.2% [4]. - From January to July, the service retail sales increased by 5.2% year - on - year [4]. - From January to July, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 2.88229 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. Excluding real estate development investment, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 5.3%. In July, the fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.63% month - on - month [4]. - In July, the total volume of goods imports and exports was 391.02 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. Among them, exports were 230.77 billion yuan, an increase of 8.0%; imports were 160.26 billion yuan, an increase of 4.8%. From January to July, the total volume of goods imports and exports was 2.56969 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. Among them, exports were 1.53048 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.3%; imports were 1.03922 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.6% [6]. - From January to July, the average monthly surveyed urban unemployment rate nationwide was 5.2%. In July, the surveyed urban unemployment rate nationwide was 5.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month and the same as the same month last year [6]. - In July, the national consumer price (CPI) was flat year - on - year and increased by 0.4% month - on - month. From January to July, the national consumer price decreased by 0.1% year - on - year [6]. - In July, the ex - factory prices of industrial producers nationwide decreased by 3.6% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month; the purchase prices of industrial producers nationwide decreased by 4.5% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month. From January to July, the ex - factory prices and purchase prices of industrial producers nationwide decreased by 2.9% and 3.2% year - on - year respectively [6]. - The central bank announced on August 15 that it would conduct a 500 - billion - yuan outright reverse - repurchase operation with a term of 6 months. Together with the 700 - billion - yuan 3 - month outright reverse - repurchase on August 8, the central bank has cumulatively over - renewed 30 billion yuan of outright reverse - repurchases this month, effectively injecting medium - term liquidity. The market expects that after the maturity of 300 billion yuan of MLF this month, the central bank may also over - renew it [7]. - In July, among 70 large and medium - sized cities in China, 6 cities saw a month - on - month increase in the prices of newly built commercial housing, compared with 14 cities in June. In terms of month - on - month changes, Urumqi and Shanghai led with a 0.3% increase, while Beijing remained flat, and Guangzhou and Shenzhen decreased by 0.3% and 0.6% respectively [7]. - On August 13, the number of investors participating in margin trading reached 523,400, a new high this year, exceeding the 521,400 on February 21. Compared with the previous trading day, the number of investors increased by 46,100, a month - on - month increase of 9.67%. As of August 13, the number of individual margin - trading investors was 7.5568 million, the number of institutional investors was 50,004, and the number of investors with margin - trading liabilities was 1.7218 million [7]. Technical Analysis and Market Outlook - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the expected intraday and August trends of the main contracts of stock index futures IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 are provided, including opening trends, price movements, and resistance and support levels [8][9][10][11][12].

今天上午10点，国务院新闻办将举行新闻发布会，国家统计局相关负责人将介绍今年7月份国民经济运 行情况，并答记者问。目前现场情况如何？媒体都有哪些关注点？ 7月份经济运行情况 宋菀：我们注意到，这次的政治局会议也指出，要在扩大商品消费的同时，培育服务消费新的增长点。 大家同样也关注下一阶段，我国将如何在保障改善民生中扩大消费需求，以及对于未来的消费趋势，相 关负责人会有怎样的预期。 及未来经济走势 此外，媒体也将重点聚焦房地产、就业等热点话题。 总台央视记者宋菀：今天发布会中外记者最关注的热点有哪些？首先，媒体非常关注7月我国经济的总 体运行情况。就在上个月，国家统计局在这里发布了今年上半年的经济数据，当时国家统计局相关负责 人介绍，上半年，国民经济迎难而上、稳中向好，高质量发展取得新进展。那么7月份，我国经济是否 延续了向新向好的发展态势，是媒体非常关注的。 （文章来源：央视新闻） 同时，我们也注意到，7月底，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势，并部署下半年经济 工作。这次会议对于"十四五"圆满收官、开启"十五五"新局面作出了细致部署，会议强调要着力稳就 业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，宏观政策要持续发 ...

Economic Data Release - The National Bureau of Statistics will announce key economic data including industrial added value, fixed asset investment, and retail sales of consumer goods on July 15 [1] - The press conference will provide insights into the national economic performance for the first half of 2025 [2] Import and Export Data - A press conference will be held on July 14 to discuss the import and export situation for the first half of 2025 [3] Oil Price Adjustment - A new round of fuel price adjustments will take effect from July 15, with 13 price adjustment windows occurring this year, resulting in six increases, five decreases, and two unchanged [5] Real Estate Market - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the June 2025 residential property price index report on July 15, indicating a month-on-month decline in property prices across 70 major cities, with a narrowing year-on-year decline [6] Industry Conferences - Multiple industry summits will take place from July 16 to 20, including the third China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo and the 12th World Chemical Engineering Conference [7] Stock Market Unlocking - A total of 42 companies will have their restricted shares unlocked next week, with a total market value exceeding 26 billion yuan based on the closing price on July 11 [8] - The top three companies by unlocking market value are Tianyue Advanced (7.487 billion yuan), Maiwei Biological (5.420 billion yuan), and Baoli Food (3.010 billion yuan) [8] New Stock Opportunities - Two new stocks are set to be issued next week, with a total of approximately 9.073 million shares and expected fundraising of 1.236 billion yuan [11] - The stocks include Jiyuan Group with an issue price of 10.88 yuan and Shanda Electric Power at 14.66 yuan, both available for subscription on July 14 [12]

Economic Overview - The national economy maintained stable operation in May, supported by more proactive macro policies, with stable production demand and overall employment situation [1] Industrial Performance - The industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.8% year-on-year in May, with a month-on-month growth of 0.61% [2] - The equipment manufacturing industry saw a 9.0% year-on-year increase, while high-tech manufacturing grew by 8.6%, outperforming the overall industrial growth by 3.2 and 2.8 percentage points respectively [2] - Key products such as 3D printing equipment, industrial robots, and new energy vehicles experienced significant production growth of 40.0%, 35.5%, and 31.7% year-on-year [3] - From January to May, the industrial added value increased by 6.3% year-on-year [3] Service Sector - The service production index rose by 6.2% year-on-year in May, accelerating by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [4] - The service sector's business activity index was at 50.2 in May, up by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, while the business activity expectation index rose to 56.5 [5] - From January to May, the service production index increased by 5.9% year-on-year [5] Consumer Spending - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan in May, marking a 6.4% year-on-year increase, which is 1.3 percentage points higher than the previous month [6] - Online retail sales amounted to 60,402 billion yuan, growing by 8.5% year-on-year, with physical goods online retail sales at 49,878 billion yuan, a 6.3% increase [6] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 191,947 billion yuan from January to May, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [8] - Infrastructure investment grew by 5.6%, while manufacturing investment increased by 8.5%. However, real estate development investment declined by 10.7% [9] Trade Performance - The total value of goods imports and exports reached 38,098 billion yuan in May, with a year-on-year growth of 2.7% [10] - Exports were 22,767 billion yuan, up by 6.3%, while imports decreased by 2.1% [10] Employment Situation - The urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.0% in May, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [11][12] - The average urban surveyed unemployment rate from January to May was 5.2% [12] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.1% year-on-year in May, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.6% [13] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 3.3% year-on-year in May [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - On June 16, all four major stock index futures contracts for the current month rose. The trading enthusiasm of investors cooled down as the total trading volume of stock index futures declined. The total positions of all four major stock index futures also decreased [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Periodic Index and Spot Data Tracking] - **Index Futures Price Changes**: On June 16, IF rose 0.38%, IH rose 0.48%, IC rose 0.46%, and IM rose 0.72%. The closing prices, price - to - spot basis, trading volumes, and open interest of each contract of the four major index futures are presented in detail [1]. - **Trading Volume Changes**: The total trading volume of index futures decreased, with IF increasing by 1520 lots, IH decreasing by 3940 lots, IC decreasing by 1262 lots, and IM decreasing by 25196 lots [2]. - **Open Interest Changes**: The total open interest of index futures decreased, with IF decreasing by 13714 lots, IH decreasing by 5088 lots, IC decreasing by 2937 lots, and IM decreasing by 12803 lots [2]. [Trend Intensity] - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and the trend intensity of IC and IM is 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6]. [Important Drivers] - In May, the national economy showed overall stable and progressive development. The year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value above designated size was 5.8%, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year - on - year, and the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.0% [6]. [Stock Market Performance] - On June 16, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.35%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.41%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.66%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 rose 1.84%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 fell 0.21%, the Wind All - A Index rose 0.54%, the Wind A500 rose 0.31%, and the CSI A500 rose 0.25%. The A - share trading volume was 1.24 trillion yuan, down from 1.5 trillion yuan the previous day [7]. [Top 20 Member Position Changes in Index Futures] - The position changes of long and short positions of the top 20 members in each contract of IF, IH, IC, and IM are presented, with some data not disclosed [5].

Economic Overview - In May, the national economy showed overall stability and progress under pressure, with key indicators reflecting positive growth [3][6]. - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 5.8% year-on-year [3]. - The service production index rose by 6.2% year-on-year [3]. - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 6.4% year-on-year [3]. Investment and Trade - From January to May, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 3.7% year-on-year [3]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 20,317.1 billion yuan, marking a 5% year-on-year increase [3]. - The total import and export value rose by 2.5% year-on-year [3].

Domestic News - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the industrial added value above designated size increased by 6.1% year-on-year in April [3] - The urban surveyed unemployment rate nationwide stands at 5.1% [3] - The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year-on-year [3] - In 70 large and medium-sized cities, the sales prices of commercial residential properties remained stable or slightly decreased month-on-month, with the year-on-year decline continuing to narrow [3] International News - The EU will propose to G7 finance ministers to lower the price cap on Russian seaborne oil, potentially setting it at $50 per barrel [5] - The Federal Reserve officials expressed a preference for only one interest rate cut this year, with recent economic data being described as very good [5] - The U.S. Treasury yields have shown a V-shaped recovery after the 30-year Treasury yield broke above 5% and then declined [7]

Economic Overview - The overall trend of China's economy remains positive, with recent financial data indicating sustained growth in monetary aggregates and support for the real economy [3][4]. - As of the end of April, the M2 (broad money) balance grew by 8% year-on-year, reflecting a 1 percentage point increase from the previous month, influenced by low base effects from last year and effective counter-cyclical adjustments by the central bank [3]. Financial Indicators - In the first four months of the year, the social financing scale stock, broad money M2, and RMB loan growth rates were 8.7%, 8%, and 7.2% respectively, all exceeding the nominal GDP growth rate, indicating strong financial support for the real economy [3]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% month-on-month in April, while year-on-year it decreased by 0.1%. The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month and decreased by 2.7% year-on-year [3]. Industrial Performance - In the first quarter, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size turned from a year-on-year decline of 3.3% to a growth of 0.8%, driven by the continued release of policy effects [4]. - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors showed significant profit support, contributing to the overall improvement in industrial economic quality and efficiency [4].

Economic Overview - In the first quarter of 2025, China's GDP reached 31.8758 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.2% [3] - The primary industry added value was 1.1713 trillion yuan, growing by 3.5% year-on-year; the secondary industry added value was 11.1903 trillion yuan, increasing by 5.9%; and the tertiary industry added value was 19.5142 trillion yuan, with a growth of 5.3% [3] Financial Data - As of April 2025, the M2 money supply grew by 8% year-on-year, reflecting a 1 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating effective monetary policy and financial support for the economy [4] - The social financing scale, M2, and RMB loan growth rates were 8.7%, 8%, and 7.2% respectively, all exceeding nominal GDP growth, demonstrating strong financial support for the real economy [4] Price Indices - In April 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% month-on-month but fell by 0.1% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year [4] - The core CPI showed stable growth, and some industrial prices continued to improve year-on-year, indicating a gradual recovery in market demand [4] Industrial Profit - In the first quarter of 2025, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size turned from a 3.3% decline in the previous year to a 0.8% increase, driven by policy effects and significant contributions from equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors [5]