地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 8 月 25 日 热点品种 期市综述 截止 8 月 25 日收盘，国内期货主力合约大面积飘红，焦煤涨超 6%，燃料油涨超 5%，焦炭涨超 4%，BR 橡胶、集运欧线、铁矿石、玻璃、20 号胶涨超 2%；跌幅方 面，胶合板跌超 1%，碳酸锂、苯乙烯小幅下跌。沪深 300 股指期 ...

重点关注 股指期货全景日报 2025/8/25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF主力合约（2509） | 4474.6 | +100.2↑ IF次主力合约（2512） | 4457.4 | +104.0↑ | | | IH主力合约（2509） | 2992.0 | +62.6↑ IH次主力合约（2512） | 2993.4 | +62.4↑ | | | IC主力合约（2509） | 6909.6 | +122.4↑ IC次主力合约（2512） | 6785.0 | +122.2↑ | | | IM主力合约（2509） | 7412.2 | +92.6↑ IM次主力合约（2512） | 7262.0 | +102.8↑ | | 期货盘面 | IF-IH当月合约价差 | 1482.6 | +30.6↑ IC-IF当月合约价差 | 2435.0 | +18.6↑ | | | IM-IC当月合约价差 | 502.6 | -35.6↓ IC-IH当月合约价差 | 3917.6 | + ...

| 商品 | | 动力煤 | （元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/08/22 | -97.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/08/21 | -97.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/08/20 | -97.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/08/19 | -99.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/08/18 | -100.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 8 月 25 日） 一、动力煤 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 二、能源化工 www.bcqhgs.com 2 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 2025/08/22 2025/08/21 2025/08/20 2025/08/19 2025 ...

金融期货日报 股指 ◆ 核心观点： 周三早盘 A 股震荡回落，午后人工智能板块带动反弹，无视隔夜美股及亚太 股指下跌，股指期货大涨呈逼空态势，与碳酸锂跌停形成反差。资金面宽松 是主因：央行宽松政策下，资金为求回报流入股期市场；居民财富管理意识 提升、房地产吸引力下降，部分资金转向金融领域，充实股市资金池。市场普 遍看涨形成正向反馈—投资者买入推升价格，价格上涨又吸引更多资金入场， 放大涨幅，这种情绪与信心转变成为股指期货 IM、IC 逼空行情的重要心理基 础。 ◆ 策略建议： 逢低做多 国债 保持观望 研究咨询部 2025-08-21 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司期货交易咨 询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 金融期货团队 研究员： 彭博 从业编号：F3080600 投资咨询编号：Z0021839 研究员： 张志恒 ◆ 核心观点： 以前期高点作为参考，如果后续收益率调整高度不能突破前高（以 30 年国债 活跃券 2500002 前高 2.06%为例），那么权益市场的强势表现对债市冲击最 猛烈的时刻很可能已经过去；同时债市还迎来了税期过后资金面重回宽松以 及基金赎回压力经历前期释放而有所缓解的边际利好 ...

Report Overview - This is the Baocheng Futures Variety Arbitrage Data Daily Report for August 21, 2025, covering multiple commodities including thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - Not provided in the report Summary by Commodity Category Thermal Coal - The report presents the basis and spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of thermal coal from August 14 to 20, 2025. The basis values are -106.4, -103.4, -100.4, -99.4, -97.4 for respective dates, while all spreads are 0.0 [2] Energy and Chemicals Energy Commodities - Data on basis, price ratios, and related indicators of energy commodities such as fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt from August 14 to 20, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on August 20 was 136.18 yuan/ton [7] Chemical Commodities - The basis, spreads, and cross - commodity spreads of chemical commodities (rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, PP, etc.) are provided. For instance, the basis of rubber on August 20 was -1075 yuan/ton [9][11] Black Metals - The report shows the cross - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, 9(10) - 5 month) and cross - commodity spreads (such as screw/ore, screw/coke) of black metals including rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal. The basis data from August 14 to 20, 2025 are also presented [20][21] Non - Ferrous Metals Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) from August 14 to 20, 2025 are given. For example, the basis of copper on August 20 was 30 yuan/ton [28] London Market - Data on LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit/loss of non - ferrous metals in the London market on August 20, 2025 are provided [35] Agricultural Products - The basis, cross - period spreads, and cross - commodity spreads of agricultural products (soybean No.1, soybean No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc.) are presented. For example, the basis of soybean No.1 on August 20 was 4284.54 yuan/ton [39] Stock Index Futures - The basis and cross - period spreads of stock index futures (CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000) are provided. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on August 20 was 1.40 [51][53]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For copper, the Fed's September FOMC meeting is approaching, with high market uncertainty. The fundamentals remain largely unchanged, but the upcoming peak season may boost demand, so copper prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels [9]. - For lithium carbonate, the market is volatile. Although the resumption of Yichun Yinli's production eases supply concerns, the suspension of CATL's production continues. With the anti - involution measures in progress, lithium carbonate prices are likely to oscillate at high levels [11]. - For crude oil, supply - demand conditions are weakening, and prices are expected to decline under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies [12][14]. - For asphalt, considering factors such as开工 rate, production, demand, and cost, it is advisable to view asphalt as having a weak and volatile trend [15]. - For PP, it is expected to oscillate in the near term. The 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended to take profit and exit as the 09 contract approaches the delivery month [17]. - For plastic, it is expected to oscillate recently, influenced by factors like开工 rate, demand, and cost [18]. - For PVC, due to factors such as supply, demand, and inventory, it is expected to oscillate downward [20]. - For coking coal, the market sentiment is fluctuating, and the futures price is temporarily oscillating with a downward bias [21]. - For urea, the market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and inventory. Attention should be paid to the Indian tender in September [23]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of August 20th, domestic commodity futures contracts showed mixed performance. EG, caustic soda, and methanol rose over 1%, while lithium carbonate hit the daily limit down, and soda ash, glass, etc. declined significantly. Stock index futures generally rose, and treasury bond futures had different trends [6]. Capital Flows - As of 15:22 on August 20th, funds flowed into CSI 1000 2509, SSE 300 2509, and CSI 500 2509, while funds flowed out of Shanghai silver 2510, lithium carbonate 2511, and ten - year treasury bond 2509 [7]. Specific Commodity Analyses Copper - Uncertainty surrounds the Fed's FOMC meeting. Supply may face challenges in the later third - quarter, and demand is expected to improve in the peak season. Copper prices are likely to oscillate at high levels [9]. Lithium Carbonate - After the resumption of Yichun Yinli's production, the market sentiment fluctuated, and the price hit the daily limit down. Supply may decline in August - September, and demand has some support [11]. Crude Oil - Seasonal factors, OPEC+ production decisions, and geopolitical events affect supply - demand. Prices are expected to decline under pressure [12][14]. Asphalt - Supply is increasing, but demand is restricted by factors such as weather and funds. Cost is weakening, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [15]. PP - Downstream开工 rate is low, supply may increase, and cost is decreasing. It is expected to oscillate, and the 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended to take profit [16][17]. Plastic -开工 rate is at a medium - low level, demand is weak, and cost is decreasing. It is expected to oscillate [18]. PVC - Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and inventory is high. It is expected to oscillate downward [20]. Coking Coal - Supply is increasing, downstream demand is complex, and market sentiment is fluctuating. The price is temporarily oscillating with a downward bias [21]. Urea - Supply has a narrow - range fluctuation, demand is insufficient, and inventory is high. Attention should be paid to the Indian tender [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on August 20, 2025, including basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - commodity spreads for power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1][5][21][27][39][50] 3. Summary by Category Power Coal - **Basis Data**: From August 13 to August 19, 2025, the basis of power coal was - 108.4, - 106.4, - 103.4, - 100.4, - 99.4 yuan/ton respectively. The spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month were all 0.0 yuan/ton [2] Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - **Basis and Ratio Data**: For fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt, data such as basis and ratio from August 13 to August 19, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on August 19 was - 1.87 yuan/ton [7] Chemical Commodities - **Basis Data**: For rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP, basis data from August 13 to August 19, 2025 are presented. For instance, the basis of rubber on August 19 was - 1025 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rubber was 80 yuan/ton [11] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol from August 13 to August 19, 2025 are provided. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on August 19 was 2301 yuan/ton [11] Black Metals - **Inter - period Spreads**: For rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal, the 5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, and 9(10) - 5 month inter - period spreads are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rebar was 49.0 yuan/ton [20] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The ratios of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and the spread of rebar - hot rolled coil from August 13 to August 19, 2025 are given. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio on August 19 was 4.08 [20] - **Basis Data**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from August 13 to August 19, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of rebar on August 19 was 144.0 yuan/ton [21] Non - ferrous Metals Domestic Market - **Basis Data**: For copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin, the basis data from August 13 to August 19, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of copper on August 19 was 170 yuan/ton [28] London Market - **LME Data**: Data such as LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on August 19, 2025 are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper was (96.85) [35] Agricultural Products - **Basis Data**: For soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn, the basis data from August 13 to August 19, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on August 19 was - 6 yuan/ton [39] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of soybeans No.1 was 42 yuan/ton [39] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The ratios of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, and the spreads of soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from August 13 to August 19, 2025 are provided. For example, the ratio of soybeans No.1/corn on August 19 was 1.86 [39] Stock Index Futures - **Basis Data**: For CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, the basis data from August 13 to August 19, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on August 19 was 7.17 [51] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided. For example, the next month - current month spread of CSI 300 was - 42.6 [53]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The report is a daily report on futures variety arbitrage data from Baocheng Futures on August 19, 2025, presenting the basis, inter - period, and inter - variety data of multiple futures varieties including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1][5][21][27][40][51]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Power Coal - The basis data from August 12 to August 18, 2025, shows that the basis on August 18 was - 100.4 yuan/ton, compared to - 113.4 yuan/ton on August 12. The 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 inter - period spreads were all 0.0 during this period [2]. Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: Basis data for fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from August 12 to August 18, 2025, are presented. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on August 18 was 163.63 yuan/ton [7]. - **Chemical Commodities**: - Basis data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP are provided from August 12 to August 18, 2025. For instance, the basis of rubber on August 18 was - 920 yuan/ton [9]. - Inter - period data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given, such as the 5 - 1 inter - period spread of rubber being 85 yuan/ton. Inter - variety data for LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from August 12 to August 18, 2025, are also presented. For example, the LLDPE - PVC value on August 18 was 2269 yuan/ton [11]. Black Metals - Inter - period data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are shown. For example, the 5 - 1 inter - period spread of rebar was 46.0 yuan/ton. Inter - variety data for rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from August 12 to August 18, 2025, are presented. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio on August 18 was 4.09 [20]. - Basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from August 12 to August 18, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of rebar on August 18 was 145.0 yuan/ton [21]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: Basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from August 12 to August 18, 2025, are given. For example, the basis of copper on August 18 was 220 yuan/ton [28]. - **London Market**: LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on August 18, 2025, are presented. For example, the LME premium/discount of copper was (96.75) [35]. Agricultural Products - Basis data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc., from August 12 to August 18, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on August 18 was - 4 yuan/ton [41]. - Inter - period data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, etc., are given. For example, the 5 - 1 inter - period spread of soybeans No.1 was 41 yuan/ton. Inter - variety data for soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc., from August 12 to August 18, 2025, are also presented. For example, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio on August 18 was 1.86 [41]. Stock Index Futures - Basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from August 12 to August 18, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on August 18 was 1.61 [52]. - Inter - period data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, including the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts and the next - quarter and current - quarter contracts, are presented. For example, the next - month minus current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 39.8 [54].

Market Performance - The A-share market has seen significant gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a nearly 10-year high on August 18, 2023 [2] - The major stock index futures also experienced substantial increases, with the CSI 1000 index futures rising by 24% year-to-date [2][6] Policy Impact - Recent policy measures, including the new "National Nine Articles" and capital market reforms, have contributed to market stability and attracted long-term capital [3][4] - The People's Bank of China has signaled a potential reduction in reserve requirements and interest rates, enhancing market risk appetite [2][5] Capital Inflows - There has been a notable increase in new A-share accounts, with 1.9636 million new accounts opened in July, reflecting a 19% month-over-month increase and a 71% year-over-year increase [6] - Institutional investors, particularly insurance funds, have been actively increasing their holdings in high-dividend assets, contributing to a stable market environment [3][4] Sector Performance - The CSI 1000 index has outperformed other indices, driven by strong performance in sectors such as technology and healthcare, which are benefiting from government support and favorable economic conditions [7][8] - Economic data for July showed positive trends, including a 6.7% year-over-year increase in total goods imports and exports, indicating resilience in foreign trade [8] Investment Strategies - Investors are increasingly focusing on strategies involving index futures, with a preference for the CSI 1000 index futures due to its structural advantages and growth potential [9][12] - Different strategies are being employed by institutional and individual investors, with institutions focusing on hedging existing gains while individuals leverage futures for potential high returns [11][12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report Although economic data weakened in July, market expectations for policy intensification have increased. The market is focusing on the semi - annual reports of listed companies, with positive net profit growth in the four broad - based indices. Some companies' improved fundamentals support the stock market, but the potential drag from unreported companies' profit declines should be watched. A - shares with reasonable valuations are attracting foreign capital inflows. The strategy suggests light - position buying on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - **Futures Contracts**: All main and secondary contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM showed price increases. For example, the IF main contract (2509) rose 34.6 to 4237.8 [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: All spreads between different contracts showed increases. For instance, the IF - IH monthly contract spread rose 26.4 to 1389.4 [2]. - **Futures Net Positions**: The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, and IM increased, while that of IC decreased slightly [2]. - **Futures Basis**: The basis of IF, IH, and IC main contracts decreased, while that of IM increased [2]. 3.2 Market Data - **Spot Prices**: All major spot indices (CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000) rose. The CSI 300 rose 37.1 to 4239.41 [2]. - **Market Turnover and Margin Trading**: A - share trading volume remained at a high level, and the margin trading balance increased slightly [2]. - **Market Sentiment Indicators**: North - bound trading was active, and the proportion of rising stocks decreased. The Shibor rate increased [2]. 3.3 Industry News - **Economic Data**: In July 2025, fixed - asset investment, real - estate investment, and social retail sales growth slowed down compared to previous values. However, inflation data showed improvement, and the M2 - M1 gap continued to narrow [2]. - **Stock Market Performance**: A - share major indices closed higher, with over 4000 stocks rising. Communication, comprehensive, and computer sectors strengthened, while real - estate and oil sectors declined [2]. 3.4 Upcoming Key Data - August 20th, 9:00: China's one - year and five - year LPR quotes - August 21st, 15:00 - 16:30: France, Germany, Eurozone, and UK's August SPGI manufacturing, service, and composite PMI preliminary values; 21:45: US August SPGI manufacturing, service, and composite PMI preliminary values - August 22nd, 22:00: Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference [3]