陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 2025 年 10 月 10 日 股指期货将震荡整理 黄金、白银、铜期货将偏强宽幅震荡 螺纹钢、铁矿石、焦煤、玻璃、纯碱、豆油、棕榈油期货 将偏强震荡 原油、PTA、PVC 期货将偏弱震荡 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将震荡整理：IF2512 阻力位 4730 和 4750 点，支撑位 4689 和 4660 点；IH2512 阻力位 3040 和 3060 点，支撑位 3020 和 3003 点；IC2512 阻力位 7500 和 7550 点，支撑位 7 ...

| 10 m 22 111 | Un m A 11 | | --- | --- | | SOURCE POINT | SOURCE POINT | | 三十四代 | | 研究中心宏观团队 2025/10/10 国 债 期 货 交 易 数 据 国债期货 T00 TF00 T01 TF01 收盘价 108.045 105.730 107.720 105.610 涨跌（%） 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 资金利率 R001 R007 SHIBOR-3M 1.4069% 1.5367% 1.5790% 日度变化(BP) -20.00 -7.00 0.00 货 币 市 场 | 最新变化 | 0.05% | 0.21% | 0.09% | -0.25% | -0.34% | 0.82% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 一周变化 | 0.18% | 0.31% | 0.11% | -0.36% | -0.43% | -0.44% | | 一月变化 | 1.41% | 0.77% | 1.26% | 0.66% | 0.33% | 1.18% ...

运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 10 月 10 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | 动力煤 | （元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/10/09 | -102.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/30 | -102.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/29 | -102.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/26 | -100.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/25 | -95.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 二、能源化工 www.bcqhgs.com 2 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 2025/10/09 2025/09/30 2025/09/29 2025/09/26 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 10 月 9 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | 动力煤 | （元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/09/30 | -102.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/29 | -102.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/26 | -100.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/25 | -95.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/24 | -95.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 二、能源化工 www.bcqhgs.com 2 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 2025/09/30 2025/09/29 2025/09/26 2025/09/25 20 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillation [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] - Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index Futures/Options: Oscillation [4] - Shanghai 50 Index Futures/Options: Oscillation [4] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [4] - 2 - year Treasury bonds: Oscillation [4] - 5 - year Treasury bonds: Oscillation [4] - 10 - year Treasury bonds: Rebound [4] - Gold: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Silver: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Logs: Range oscillation [6] - Pulp: Consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Oscillation [6] - Soybean oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Palm oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Rapeseed oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Bean meal: Oscillation with a downward bias [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation with a downward bias [6] - Soybean No.2: Oscillation with a downward bias [7] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a slightly upward bias [7] - Rubber: Oscillation [9] - PX: Wait - and - see [9] - PTA: Oscillation [9] - MEG: Wait - and - see [9] - PR: Wait - and - see [9] - PF: Wait - and - see [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - The trading logic of iron ore has increased uncertainty, with short - term support under supply - side interference. The follow - up focus is on the actual impact on the supply side and October steel demand [2]. - In October, the supply of coking coal in China is expected to run stably, with limited increase. Coke supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and its trend follows coking coal. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the "anti - involution" policy [2]. - For rebar, the futures price has a low static valuation. The supply side may shrink, and the focus is on the demand recovery in October. The price needs to see rapid post - festival inventory reduction to stabilize [2]. - The glass market has short - term support from the replenishment market, but the demand is difficult to improve fundamentally. The supply - demand is basically balanced, and the follow - up should pay attention to production and policy changes [2]. - The stock index market is volatile, with an optimistic upward outlook. Stock index long positions should maintain the current position, while Treasury bond long positions should be held lightly [4]. - The logic for the rise in gold prices has not completely reversed. It is expected to show strong - biased oscillation, affected by the Fed's interest - rate policy and geopolitical risks [4][6]. - Logs are expected to oscillate in a range, with supply - side pressure not significant and an increase in daily outbound volume [6]. - Pulp prices are expected to consolidate at the bottom, affected by cost support and demand factors [6]. - The oil and fat market continues the range - oscillation pattern, with significant differentiation among varieties. Attention should be paid to Brazilian soybean sowing and Malaysian palm oil production and sales [6]. - Bean meal prices are expected to move downward in the short term, affected by supply and demand factors such as new soybean listings and changes in Chinese demand [6][7]. - Live pig prices are expected to oscillate slightly downward in the short term, with sufficient supply and weak downstream demand [7]. - Natural rubber prices may show wide - range oscillation, affected by supply, demand, and inventory factors [9]. - The prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF are mainly affected by cost, supply, and demand factors, with different trends [9]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: During the long holiday, the Singapore Exchange iron ore swaps rose slightly. There are new concerns about supply, and the short - term supply - side interference provides support. The follow - up core is steel demand in October [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: In October, domestic coking coal supply is expected to be stable, with production lower than last year. Coke's first - round price increase was implemented, and the second - round basically failed. Coke supply - demand contradiction is not large, and it follows coking coal [2]. - **Rolled steel and rebar**: During the long holiday, Tangshan billet prices were stable. Rebar futures have a low valuation, and the supply side may shrink. The focus is on demand recovery in October, and the price needs rapid post - festival de - stocking [2]. - **Glass**: Market sentiment was boosted by news, and prices rose. Supply was stable last week, and there was short - term support from replenishment. However, long - term demand is suppressed by the real estate adjustment [2]. - **Soda ash**: Although the report mentions it in the context, there is no specific in - depth analysis other than the overall "oscillation" rating [2]. Financial and Precious Metals - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The market is volatile. The overall upward outlook is optimistic, and stock index long positions should maintain the current position [4]. - **Treasury bonds**: Market interest rates are volatile, and Treasury bond trends are weak. Treasury bond long positions should be held lightly [4]. - **Gold and Silver**: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing. The logic for the rise has not reversed, and it is expected to show strong - biased oscillation, affected by the Fed's policy and geopolitical risks [4][6]. Light Industry - **Logs**: Port daily shipment volume increased, and supply is expected to be tight. The cost support is enhanced, and it is expected to oscillate in a range [6]. - **Pulp**: Spot prices fluctuated. Cost support is enhanced, but demand improvement is uncertain. It is expected to consolidate at the bottom [6]. - **Double - offset paper**: The spot price is stable. Production is relatively stable, and demand is expected to improve, but prices are expected to oscillate [6]. Oil and Fats - **Soybean oil, Palm oil, Rapeseed oil**: The oil and fat market shows a wide - range oscillation pattern. There are differences among varieties, affected by factors such as Argentine exports, biodiesel, and seasonal production [6]. - **Bean meal, Rapeseed meal**: Although there is some support from US domestic demand, new soybean listings and Brazilian production potential bring supply pressure. Prices are expected to move downward [6][7]. Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight is declining, and supply is sufficient. Downstream demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate slightly downward [7]. Soft Commodities and Polyester - **Rubber**: Supply - side pressure in Yunnan has decreased, while Hainan's output is lower than expected. Demand has improved slightly, and inventory is decreasing. Prices may show wide - range oscillation [9]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: These products are mainly affected by cost, supply, and demand factors. Their prices show different trends such as oscillation, wait - and - see, etc. [9]

金 融 期 货 研 究 2025 年 10 月 9 日 期指：节后首日或偏强震荡为主 毛磊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com 【期指期现数据跟踪】 期指数据 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基 差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 | 变 动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深300 | 4640.69 | ↑0.45 | | 6646.2 | | | | | | IF2510 | 4634.4 | ↑0.18 | -6.29 | 445.3 | 32027 | ↓15624 | 52458 | ↓9496 | | IF2511 | 4623 | ↑0.19 | -17.69 | 68.4 | 4927 | ↓304 | 6116 | ↑456 | | IF2512 | 4618 | ↑0.20 | -22.69 | 877 | 63292 | ↓34009 | 153795 | ↓11459 | | IF2603 | 4595.2 | ↑0.24 | -45.49 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Baocheng Futures Variety Arbitrage Data Daily Report for September 30, 2025, covering multiple commodity sectors including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1] Group 2: Power Coal - The power coal data shows the basis from September 23 to September 29, 2025. The basis gradually decreased from -95.4 yuan/ton on September 23 to -102.4 yuan/ton on September 29, while the spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month remained 0.0 [2] Group 3: Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - For energy commodities, data on fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt are presented. The basis and price ratios of these commodities changed from September 23 to September 29, 2025. For example, the basis of INE crude oil was 15.24 yuan/ton on September 23 and 13.03 yuan/ton on September 29 [7] Chemical Commodities - In the chemical sector, the basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP are provided. The basis of these commodities fluctuated from September 23 to September 29, 2025. For instance, the basis of rubber decreased from -825 yuan/ton on September 23 to -825 yuan/ton on September 29 [9] - The cross - period spreads and cross - variety spreads of chemical commodities are also given. For cross - period spreads, different spreads such as 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month are shown for various chemicals. For cross - variety spreads, spreads like LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol are presented with their values changing from September 23 to September 29, 2025 [11] Group 4: Black Metals - The black metal data includes cross - period spreads and cross - variety spreads, as well as basis data. For cross - period spreads, values for 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month(10) minus 1 - month, and 9 - month(10) minus 5 - month are given for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal. For cross - variety spreads, ratios such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil are presented. The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal also changed from September 23 to September 29, 2025 [20][21] Group 5: Non - Ferrous Metals Domestic Market - In the domestic non - ferrous metal market, the basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin are provided from September 23 to September 29, 2025. The basis values of these metals fluctuated during this period [28] London Market - In the London market, data on LME non - ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin are presented. Information such as LME forward premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss are given for September 29, 2025 [33] Group 6: Agricultural Products - The agricultural product data includes basis, cross - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads. For basis, values of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. are shown from September 23 to September 29, 2025. The cross - period spreads are calculated for different months (5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 5 - month) for various agricultural products. The cross - variety spreads such as the ratio of soybeans No.1 to corn, soybeans No.2 to corn, etc. are also presented with their values changing over the period [38] Group 7: Stock Index Futures - The stock index futures data includes basis and cross - period spreads. The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided from September 23 to September 29, 2025. The cross - period spreads of the next - month minus the current - month and the next - quarter minus the current - quarter are given for these stock index futures [49]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report provides daily arbitrage data for various futures commodities on September 29, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, showing the basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - commodity spreads of these commodities. 3. Summary by Directory Power Coal - The basis for power coal on September 26, 2025, was - 100.4 yuan/ton, compared to - 95.4 yuan/ton on September 25, 24, and 23, and - 96.4 yuan/ton on September 22. The spreads of 5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, and 9 - month vs 5 - month were all 0.0 [2]. Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - For energy commodities, the basis data for fuel oil, INE crude oil, and crude oil/asphalt from September 22 to 26, 2025, are presented, along with the price ratios. For example, on September 26, the basis of INE crude oil was 13.13 yuan/ton, and the price ratio was 0.1417 [7]. Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from September 22 to 26, 2025, are provided. For instance, on September 26, the basis of rubber was - 770 yuan/ton [9]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 5 - month) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of rubber was - 30 yuan/ton [11]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from September 22 to 26, 2025, are shown. On September 26, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2261 yuan/ton [11]. Black Metals - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal (5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month(10) vs 1 - month, 9 - month(10) vs 5 - month) are presented. For example, the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of rebar was 58.0 yuan/ton [20]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from September 22 to 26, 2025, are provided. On September 26, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 3.94 [20]. - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from September 22 to 26, 2025, are given. On September 26, the basis of rebar was 126.0 yuan/ton [21]. Non - ferrous Metals Domestic Market - The basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin in the domestic market from September 22 to 26, 2025, are presented. On September 26, the basis of copper was 40 yuan/ton [28]. London Market - For LME non - ferrous metals on September 26, 2025, the LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper was (38.91), and the import profit and loss was (452.74) [33]. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc., from September 22 to 26, 2025, are given. On September 26, the basis of soybeans No.1 was 125 yuan/ton [39]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of various agricultural products (5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 5 - month) are presented. For example, the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of soybeans No.1 was 33 yuan/ton [39]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc., from September 22 to 26, 2025, are shown. On September 26, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio was 1.81 [39]. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from September 22 to 26, 2025, are provided. On September 26, the basis of CSI 300 was 25.05 [50]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (next - month vs current - month, next - quarter vs current - quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given. For example, the next - month vs current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 14.0 [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Rebar and rolled steel: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Rebounding [2] - Soda ash: Adjusting [2] - CSI 50: Oscillating [2] - CSI 300: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500: Rebounding [4] - CSI 1000: Rebounding [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Rebounding [4] - Gold: High - level oscillation [4] - Silver: High - level oscillation [4] - Logs: Range - bound oscillation [6] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Bearish outlook [6] - Edible oils: Wide - range oscillation [5] - Soybean meal: Oscillating with a bearish bias [5] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating with a bearish bias [5] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Live pigs: Oscillating with a bullish bias [7] - Rubber: Oscillating [10] - PX: On the sidelines [10] - PTA: Oscillating [10] - MEG: On the sidelines [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: On the sidelines [10] 2. Core Views - The Fed's interest rate cut has landed as expected, and after the National Day, trading focus will gradually shift to reality. Different commodities have different supply - demand situations and price trends [2][4]. - Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting, and factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and the US economic situation affect its price [4]. - Various factors such as supply - demand, policies, and seasonal factors impact the prices of commodities in different industries [2][5][6][7][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: Overseas supply decreased slightly but remained at a high level in recent years. Port arrivals increased, demand rebounded, and the 2601 contract adjusted at a high level [2]. - Coking coal and coke: As the double - festival replenishment period approaches, procurement enthusiasm increased. Supply may be weaker than last year, and the futures market rebounded [2]. - Rebar and rolled steel: Data met expectations, production increased slightly, demand was lackluster, and the 2601 contract oscillated with a bullish bias [2]. - Glass: Enterprises raised prices, short - term price increases may stimulate downstream replenishment, and demand improved slightly, but the long - term real estate adjustment continued [2]. Financial Products - Stock index futures/options: Different stock indices showed different trends, with some sectors having capital inflows and others outflows [2]. - Treasury bonds: Yields and market interest rates fluctuated, and the market was affected by factors such as central bank operations [4]. - Gold and silver: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing, and factors such as geopolitical risks, the US economic situation, and central bank gold purchases affect their prices [4]. Light Industry - Logs: Supply tightened, inventory decreased, cost support weakened, and prices were expected to oscillate in a range [6]. - Pulp: Spot prices were divided, cost support increased, but demand was weak, and prices were expected to consolidate at the bottom [6]. - Offset paper: Production was stable, demand was weak during the off - season, and the industry was bearish [6]. Oils and Fats - Oils: Palm oil inventory increased, production decreased due to disasters, and demand from India increased. Domestic oil supply was abundant, and prices were expected to oscillate widely [5]. - Meal: US soybean production increased, export demand was weak, and domestic supply was abundant, with prices expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [5]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: Average transaction weight increased, supply was abundant, demand was weak, and prices were expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [7]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: Supply pressure decreased in some areas, demand increased slightly, inventory decreased, and prices were expected to oscillate widely [10]. - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF: PX had supply risks, PTA's cost support might weaken, and their prices followed cost fluctuations. MEG had supply pressure, and PR and PF were expected to trade flatly [10].

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