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期指:新高过后,震荡走势
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 02:06
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On August 13, all the current-month contracts of the four major stock index futures rose. IF increased by 0.97%, IH by 0.33%, IC by 1.57%, and IM by 1.63% [1] - On the trading day, the total trading volume of stock index futures rebounded, indicating an increase in investors' trading enthusiasm. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF increased by 23,189 lots, IH by 9,330 lots, IC by 27,828 lots, and IM by 55,257 lots. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF increased by 10,150 lots, IH by 6,610 lots, IC by 11,324 lots, and IM by 32,273 lots [2] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **Closing Prices and Fluctuations**: On August 13, the closing prices of various stock index futures and their underlying indexes showed different increases. For example, the CSI 300 index closed at 4,176.58, up 0.79%; IF2508 closed at 4,181.2, up 0.97% [1] - **Basis**: Different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM had different basis values. For example, the basis of IF2508 was 4.62, and that of IF2509 was -5.78 [1] - **Trading Volume and Turnover**: The trading volume and turnover of each contract also varied. For example, the turnover of IF2509 was 929.2 billion yuan, and the trading volume was 74,450 lots [1] - **Position Changes**: The positions of each contract changed. For example, the position of IF2508 decreased by 5,986 lots, while that of IF2509 increased by 11,069 lots [1] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6] 3. Important Drivers - The central bank announced that at the end of July, China's broad - money (M2) balance was 329.94 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.8%; narrow - money (M1) balance was 111.06 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.6%; currency in circulation (M0) balance was 13.28 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.8%. In the first seven months, the net cash injection was 465.1 billion yuan. In the first seven months, RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan, and RMB deposits increased by 18.44 trillion yuan. The cumulative increase in social financing scale in the first seven months was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [6] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.48%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.76%, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.62%. The A - share trading volume throughout the day was 2.18 trillion yuan, reaching the second - highest level this year. The market volume exceeded 2 trillion yuan, and the Shanghai Composite Index had an eight - day consecutive increase [6] 4. Positions of the Top 20 Members in Futures - The positions of the top 20 members in different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM changed. For example, in IF2508, the long positions decreased by 4,663 lots, and the short positions decreased by 4,513 lots [5]
期指:寰球共振,震荡偏强
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 01:57
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - On August 12, the current-month contracts of the four major index futures all rose. The overall trading volume of index futures declined, indicating a decrease in investors' trading enthusiasm. The overall open interest of all four major index futures decreased [1][2]. - The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The market is in a situation of global resonance, oscillating with a slight upward bias [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Index Futures Data Tracking - **IF Series**: The closing price of the underlying CSI 300 was 4143.83, up 0.52%. Among the futures contracts, IF2508 closed at 4144.4, up 0.52%, with a basis of 0.57; IF2509 closed at 4131.2, up 0.51%, with a basis of -12.63; IF2512 closed at 4102, up 0.51%, with a basis of -41.83; IF2603 closed at 4069.6, up 0.51%, with a basis of -74.23. The total trading volume decreased by 1165 lots, and the total open interest decreased by 8595 lots [1][2]. - **IH Series**: The closing price of the underlying SSE 50 was 2807.01, up 0.61%. Among the futures contracts, IH2508 closed at 2809.8, up 0.62%, with a basis of 2.79; IH2509 closed at 2809.6, up 0.61%, with a basis of 2.59; IH2512 closed at 2811.4, up 0.64%, with a basis of 4.39; IH2603 closed at 2811, up 0.64%, with a basis of 3.99. The total trading volume increased by 8277 lots, and the total open interest decreased by 1720 lots [1][2]. - **IC Series**: The closing price of the underlying CSI 500 was 6418.16, up 0.41%. Among the futures contracts, IC2508 closed at 6409.2, up 0.52%, with a basis of -8.96; IC2509 closed at 6342.6, up 0.52%, with a basis of -75.56; IC2512 closed at 6190, up 0.58%, with a basis of -228.16; IC2603 closed at 6051.6, up 0.54%, with a basis of -366.56. The total trading volume decreased by 14462 lots, and the total open interest decreased by 9999 lots [1][2]. - **IM Series**: The closing price of the underlying CSI 1000 was 6963.61, up 0.28%. Among the futures contracts, IM2508 closed at 6954.2, up 0.31%, with a basis of -9.41; IM2509 closed at 6883.6, up 0.31%, with a basis of -80.01; IM2512 closed at 6694.2, up 0.30%, with a basis of -269.41; IM2603 closed at 6512, up 0.30%, with a basis of -451.61. The total trading volume decreased by 38939 lots, and the total open interest decreased by 20490 lots [1][2]. 2. Top 20 Member Open Interest Changes - **IF Contracts**: For IF2508, long positions decreased by 5297 lots, with a net change of -8242 lots; short positions decreased by 5061 lots, with a net change of -7997 lots. For IF2509, long positions decreased by 2979 lots, and short positions decreased by 2507 lots. For IF2512, long positions increased by 344 lots, and short positions decreased by 254 lots. For IF2603, long positions decreased by 310 lots, and short positions decreased by 175 lots [5]. - **IH Contracts**: For IH2508, long positions decreased by 1110 lots, with a net change of -1400 lots; short positions decreased by 1003 lots, with a net change of -1056 lots. For IH2509, long positions increased by 76 lots, and short positions increased by 416 lots. For IH2512, long positions decreased by 366 lots, and short positions decreased by 469 lots. The data for IH2603 was not announced [5]. - **IC Contracts**: For IC2508, long positions decreased by 4194 lots, with a net change of -9005 lots; short positions decreased by 4730 lots, with a net change of -8928 lots. For IC2509, long positions decreased by 2972 lots, and short positions decreased by 2715 lots. For IC2512, long positions decreased by 1306 lots, and short positions decreased by 1069 lots. For IC2603, long positions decreased by 533 lots, and short positions decreased by 414 lots [5]. - **IM Contracts**: For IM2508, long positions decreased by 8911 lots, with a net change of -16351 lots; short positions decreased by 9453 lots, with a net change of -17297 lots. For IM2509, long positions decreased by 5810 lots, and short positions decreased by 6384 lots. For IM2512, long positions decreased by 1630 lots, and short positions decreased by 1460 lots. The data for IM2603 was not announced [5]. 3. Important Drivers - **Policy News**: China and the US issued the Joint Statement of the China-US Stockholm Economic and Trade Talks. Both sides will continue to suspend the implementation of 24% reciprocal tariffs for 90 days. The three departments jointly issued the Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans, and eligible personal consumption loans can enjoy the interest subsidy policy [6]. - **Global Market Conditions**: Inflation data strengthened the expectation of interest rate cuts. The Nasdaq and S&P reached new highs, Ethereum rose 9%, and the Russell small-cap index soared 3%. The 2-year US Treasury yield fell nearly 3 basis points, the US dollar fell 0.47%, gold fluctuated widely around $3350, and crude oil closed lower [6]. - **A-share Market**: The A-share market continued its slow-bull pattern. The STAR 50 led the rise, and the ChiNext Index broke through its previous high. More than 3100 stocks closed lower, and market divergence intensified before reaching new highs [6].
期指:震荡偏强
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 02:05
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for index futures is "shockingly bullish" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - On August 11, all the current - month contracts of the four major index futures rose. The trading volume of index futures increased, indicating that investors' trading enthusiasm has warmed up. The total positions of all types of index futures also increased [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Index Futures Data Tracking - **CSI 300 and its Futures**: The CSI 300 index closed at 4122.51, up 0.43%. Among its futures contracts, IF2508 closed at 4116, up 0.37% with a basis of - 6.51; IF2509 closed at 4104.8, up 0.43% with a basis of - 17.71; IF2512 closed at 4075.2, up 0.48% with a basis of - 47.31; IF2603 closed at 4044.6, up 0.56% with a basis of - 77.91 [1] - **SSE 50 and its Futures**: The SSE 50 index closed at 2789.9, up 0.03%. Among its futures contracts, IH2508 closed at 2788.4, up 0.01% with a basis of - 1.5; IH2509 closed at 2789.4, up 0.01% with a basis of - 0.5; IH2512 closed at 2791, up 0.06% with a basis of 1.1; IH2603 closed at 2790.4, up 0.10% with a basis of 0.5 [1] - **CSI 500 and its Futures**: The CSI 500 index closed at 6391.76, up 1.08%. Among its futures contracts, IC2508 closed at 6368.2, up 1.02% with a basis of - 23.56; IC2509 closed at 6298.8, up 1.07% with a basis of - 92.96; IC2512 closed at 6144.6, up 1.18% with a basis of - 247.16; IC2603 closed at 6006, up 1.20% with a basis of - 385.76 [1] - **CSI 1000 and its Futures**: The CSI 1000 index closed at 6943.94, up 1.55%. Among its futures contracts, IM2508 closed at 6925.6, up 1.56% with a basis of - 18.34; IM2509 closed at 6851.2, up 1.61% with a basis of - 92.74; IM2512 closed at 6663.8, up 1.72% with a basis of - 280.14; IM2603 closed at 6478.8, up 1.71% with a basis of - 465.14 [1] 3.2 Trading Volume and Position Changes - **Trading Volume**: The total trading volume of IF increased by 29586 lots, IH increased by 9620 lots, IC increased by 23858 lots, and IM increased by 55757 lots [2] - **Positions**: The total positions of IF increased by 14212 lots, IH increased by 6800 lots, IC increased by 9202 lots, and IM increased by 25544 lots [2] 3.3 Top 20 Member Position Changes - For IF, the long - position changes of different contracts varied, such as 623 lots for IF2508, 8267 lots for IF2509, etc. The short - position changes also differed, like 1360 lots for IF2508 [5] - For IH, the long - position changes included 557 lots for IH2508, 3754 lots for IH2509, etc. The short - position changes were also distinct [5] - For IC, the long - position changes were - 549 lots for IC2508, 5137 lots for IC2509, etc. The short - position changes were also different [5] - For IM, the long - position changes were 1995 lots for IM2508, 11368 lots for IM2509, etc. The short - position changes were also distinct [5] 3.4 Trend Intensity and Important Drivers - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1 [6] - **Important Drivers**: Before the US CPI data, the market was cautious. The Nasdaq rose and then fell. Lithium mining stocks soared, and gold was under pressure. In the domestic market, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.34%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.46%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.96%. The market was active with more than 4000 stocks rising [6]
期指:或震荡偏强
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 03:17
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for index futures is "possibly fluctuating with a slight upward bias" [1] 2. Core View - On August 9, the current - month contracts of the four major index futures showed mixed performance. IF decreased by 0.22%, IH decreased by 0.42%, IC increased by 0.02%, and IM decreased by 0.23%. On the current trading day, the total trading volume of index futures declined, indicating a decrease in investors' trading enthusiasm. The total trading volume and positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM all decreased [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Index Futures Data Tracking - **IF Series**: The closing prices of different contracts decreased, with the largest decline of 0.33% in IF2603. The trading volume and positions of most contracts decreased, such as IF2508's trading volume decreasing by 3525 lots and positions decreasing by 2294 lots [1] - **IH Series**: The closing prices of different contracts decreased, with the largest decline of 0.46% in IH2603. The trading volume and positions of most contracts decreased, such as IH2508's trading volume decreasing by 666 lots and positions decreasing by 223 lots [1] - **IC Series**: The closing prices of different contracts showed mixed trends, with IC2508 and IC2509 increasing slightly. The trading volume and positions of most contracts decreased, such as IC2508's trading volume decreasing by 3482 lots and positions decreasing by 3410 lots [1] - **IM Series**: The closing prices of different contracts decreased, with the largest decline of 0.27% in IM2512. The trading volume of most contracts decreased, while the positions of IM2509 increased by 67122 lots [1] 3.2 Trading and Position Changes - In terms of trading volume, IF decreased by 18105 lots, IH decreased by 9004 lots, IC decreased by 18301 lots, and IM decreased by 37903 lots. In terms of positions, IF decreased by 9906 lots, IH decreased by 3451 lots, IC decreased by 8103 lots, and IM decreased by 11229 lots [2] 3.3 Top 20 Member Position Changes - For most contracts, both long and short positions decreased. For example, in IF2508, long positions decreased by 1815 lots and short positions decreased by 1940 lots [5] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and the trend intensity of IC and IM is also 1, indicating a neutral - to - slightly - positive trend [6] 3.5 Important Drivers - President Xi Jinping had a phone call with Russian President Putin, expressing China's welcome for Russia - US dialogue on the Ukraine issue. Xinhua News Agency decoded how to understand "enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market", stating that there will be no large - scale IPO expansion. The three major A - share indices showed narrow - range fluctuations, with some sectors such as Xinjiang infrastructure stocks rising and some sectors such as AI intelligent agent concepts falling [7]
期指:消息面平静,震荡回升
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 02:09
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that on August 7, the four major stock index futures contracts showed mixed trends. The overall trading volume of stock index futures increased, indicating a rise in investors' trading enthusiasm. The report also presents data on price, trading volume, open interest, basis, and the position changes of the top 20 members of the futures contracts, along with information on trend strength and important economic drivers [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Futures Index and Spot Data Tracking - **Index Futures Price and Change**: On August 7, the closing prices of the four major stock indexes showed different trends. The CSI 300 rose 0.03% to 4,114.67, the SSE 50 rose 0.03% to 2,798.31, the CSI 500 fell 0.31% to 6,337.54, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.01% to 6,862.15. Among the corresponding futures contracts, IF2508 fell 0.07%, IH2508 fell 0.01%, IC2508 fell 0.50%, and IM2508 fell 0.18% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The total trading volume of all four major stock index futures increased. IF increased by 19,361 lots, IH by 11,776 lots, IC by 15,809 lots, and IM by 19,113 lots. The total open interest also increased, with IF up 7,431 lots, IH up 2,077 lots, IC up 3,443 lots, and IM up 4,114 lots [1][2]. 3.2 Basis Data The report provides the basis data of IF, IH, IC, and IM from July 14 to August 7, showing the basis changes of the current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter contracts [4]. 3.3 Position Changes of Top 20 Members The report shows the long and short position changes of the top 20 members of each futures contract. For example, in the IF contracts, the long positions of IF2508 and IF2509 increased by 2,185 and 4,996 lots respectively, and the short positions increased by 1,562 and 3,282 lots respectively [5]. 3.4 Trend Strength The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend strength ranges from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [6]. 3.5 Important Drivers In July, China's exports (in RMB) increased by 8% year - on - year (previous value: 7.2%), imports increased by 4.8% (previous value: 2.4%), and the trade surplus was 705.1 billion yuan (previous value: 825.8 billion yuan). In US dollars, exports increased by 7.2% year - on - year (previous value: 5.9%), imports increased by 4.1% (previous value: 1.1%), and the trade surplus was 98.24 billion US dollars (previous value: 114.75 billion US dollars). In the first seven months, China's total goods trade value reached 25.7 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%, with the growth rate accelerating by 0.6 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [6]. 3.6 Stock Market Performance The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.16%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.18%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.68%. The total trading volume of A - shares was 1.85 trillion yuan, up from 1.76 trillion yuan the previous day. The rare earth permanent magnet concept led to a warming of cyclical stocks, and the military stocks maintained their popularity. The rare earth permanent magnet, rare earth, and IGBT concepts led the gains, while three pharmaceutical sub - sectors, CRO, weight - loss drugs, and innovative drugs, led the decline [7].
期指:上涨后的震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 01:39
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - On August 5th, all four major stock index futures contracts for the current month rose. IF increased by 0.86%, IH by 0.8%, IC by 0.72%, and IM by 0.9%. The total trading volume of stock index futures declined on the trading day, indicating a decrease in investors' trading enthusiasm. In terms of positions, IF's total position increased by 1005 lots, IH's by 660 lots, IC's decreased by 1806 lots, and IM's decreased by 7110 lots [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Periodic Index Data Tracking - **CSI 300 and Its Futures Contracts**: The CSI 300 index closed at 4103.45, up 0.80%. Among its futures contracts, IF2508 closed at 4095, up 0.86% with a basis of -8.45; IF2509 closed at 4082, up 0.84% with a basis of -21.45; IF2512 closed at 4051, up 0.85% with a basis of -52.45; IF2603 closed at 4020.6, up 0.84% with a basis of -82.85 [1] - **SSE 50 and Its Futures Contracts**: The SSE 50 index closed at 2790.73, up 0.77%. Among its futures contracts, IH2508 closed at 2789.4, up 0.80% with a basis of -1.33; IH2509 closed at 2791, up 0.83% with a basis of 0.27; IH2512 closed at 2792.8, up 0.82% with a basis of 2.07; IH2603 closed at 2794, up 0.87% with a basis of 3.27 [1] - **CSI 500 and Its Futures Contracts**: The CSI 500 index closed at 6303.24, up 0.66%. Among its futures contracts, IC2508 closed at 6265.4, up 0.72% with a basis of -37.84; IC2509 closed at 6198.6, up 0.66% with a basis of -104.64; IC2512 closed at 6040.2, up 0.65% with a basis of -263.04; IC2603 closed at 5909.8, up 0.62% with a basis of -393.44 [1] - **CSI 1000 and Its Futures Contracts**: The CSI 1000 index closed at 6787.48, up 0.71%. Among its futures contracts, IM2508 closed at 6754.4, up 0.90% with a basis of -33.08; IM2509 closed at 6682, up 0.90% with a basis of -105.48; IM2512 closed at 6490.8, up 0.90% with a basis of -296.68; IM2603 closed at 6311, up 0.78% with a basis of -476.48 [1] 3.2 Trading Volume and Position Changes - **Trading Volume**: IF's total trading volume increased by 3421 lots, IH's by 2218 lots, IC's decreased by 11728 lots, and IM's decreased by 33934 lots [2] - **Positions**: IF's total position increased by 1005 lots, IH's by 660 lots, IC's decreased by 1806 lots, and IM's decreased by 7110 lots [2] 3.3 Top 20 Member Position Changes in Futures - **IF Contracts**: For IF2508, long positions decreased by 155 with a net change of 692, and short positions decreased by 181 with a net change of 533; for IF2509, long positions increased by 601; for IF2512, long positions decreased by 126; for IF2603, long positions increased by 372 [5] - **IH Contracts**: For IH2508, long positions decreased by 216 with a net change of 1299; for IH2509, long positions increased by 1020 and short positions increased by 507 with a net change of 1105; for IH2512, long positions increased by 495 [5] - **IC Contracts**: For IC2508, long positions decreased by 1509 and short positions decreased by 1519; for IC2509 and IC2512, long positions decreased by 1274 and 537 respectively, and short positions decreased by 985 and 202 respectively; for IC2603, long positions increased by 700 [5] - **IM Contracts**: For IM2508, long positions decreased by 1730 and short positions decreased by 2259; for IM2509, long positions decreased by 4474 with a net change of -7498, and short positions decreased by 3785 with a net change of -6783; for IM2512, long positions decreased by 1294 [5] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [6] 3.5 Important Drivers - Seven departments including the People's Bank of China jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for New - type Industrialization", strengthening medium - and long - term loan support for digital infrastructure construction such as 5G, industrial Internet, data and computing power centers, and using various financing methods to broaden the funding sources. They also put forward requirements in multiple aspects such as promoting the financing of emerging industries in the capital market, and the State Council emphasized consolidating and expanding the upward trend of the economic recovery [7][8]
期指:会议落地,偏多支撑依旧
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 02:12
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On July 30, the current-month contracts of the four major stock index futures showed mixed performance, with IF up 0.04%, IH up 0.32%, IC down 0.43%, and IM down 0.44%. The total trading volume of stock index futures rebounded on the trading day, indicating increased trading enthusiasm among investors. The total trading volume and positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM all increased [1][2]. - The trends of IF and IH have a strength of 1, while those of IC and IM also have a strength of 1. The取值 range of trend strength is an integer within the [-2, 2] interval [6]. - The market was affected by multiple factors, including the decisions of the Politburo meeting, the党外人士座谈会, and Powell's remarks on interest rates. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.17%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.77%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.62%. A - shares had a full - day trading volume of 1.87 trillion yuan, up from 1.83 trillion yuan the previous day [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **IF Series**: The closing prices of IF2508, IF2509, IF2512, and IF2603 were 4147, 4136.4, 4105.2, and 4074.4 respectively, with increases of 0.04%, 0.04%, 0.08%, and 0.13%. The trading volumes were 35444, 81931, 15870, and 4786 respectively, with increases of 11217, 23415, 5044, and 692. The positions were 46692, 162604, 54981, and 10426 respectively, with increases of 4803, 9027, 435, and 918. The basis was - 4.24, - 14.84, - 46.04, and - 76.84 respectively [1]. - **IH Series**: The closing prices of IH2508, IH2509, IH2512, and IH2603 were 2821.4, 2820, 2820.2, and 2821.6 respectively, with increases of 0.32%, 0.28%, 0.23%, and 0.26%. The trading volumes were 16238, 46511, 6381, and 1819 respectively, with increases of 5126, 15965, 2807, and 904. The positions were 20777, 64619, 15228, and 2657 respectively, with increases of 2883, 4265, 841, and 570. The basis was 2.05, 0.65, 0.85, and 2.25 respectively [1]. - **IC Series**: The closing prices of IC2508, IC2509, IC2512, and IC2603 were 6271.2, 6215.4, 6079, and 5955.2 respectively, with decreases of 0.43%, 0.42%, 0.36%, and 0.31%. The trading volumes were 26089, 58280, 15042, and 5843 respectively, with increases of 3022, 11610, 1455, and 1074. The positions were 51234, 108507, 57093, and 13089 respectively, with changes of + 2292, + 3193, - 964, and + 621. The basis was - 43.49, - 99.29, - 235.69, and - 359.49 respectively [1]. - **IM Series**: The closing prices of IM2508, IM2509, IM2512, and IM2603 were 6675.6, 6604.2, 6415.2, and 6249.8 respectively, with decreases of 0.44%, 0.43%, 0.43%, and 0.43%. The trading volumes were 46466, 144840, 31250, and 8723 respectively, with increases of 7945, 28437, 4954, and 1394. The positions were 64269, 185002, 78570, and 18656 respectively, with increases of 4761, 79688, 75, and 1303. The basis was - 42.88, - 114.28, - 303.28, and - 468.68 respectively [1]. 2. Trading Volume and Position Changes - **Trading Volume**: The total trading volume of IF increased by 40368 lots, IH by 24802 lots, IC by 17161 lots, and IM by 42730 lots [2]. - **Position**: The total positions of IF increased by 15183 lots, IH by 8559 lots, IC by 5142 lots, and IM by 16585 lots [2]. 3. Top 20 Member Position Changes - **IF Series**: For IF2508, long - order increase was 5738, and short - order increase was 4801; for IF2509, long - order increase was 7911, and short - order increase was 6415; for IF2512, long - order increase was 1200, and short - order increase was 313; for IF2603, long - order increase was 669, and short - order increase was 781 [5]. - **IH Series**: For IH2508, long - order increase was 2480, and short - order increase was 2467; for IH2509, long - order increase was 4125, and short - order increase was 3941; for IH2512, long - order increase was 962, and short - order increase was 919; for IH2603, data was not announced [5]. - **IC Series**: For IC2508, long - order increase was 2097, and short - order increase was 2029; for IC2509, long - order increase was 2973, and short - order increase was 2564; for IC2512, long - order increase was - 376, and short - order increase was - 849; for IC2603, long - order increase was 795, and short - order increase was 456 [5]. - **IM Series**: For IM2508, long - order increase was 4501; for IM2509, long - order increase was 9904, and short - order increase was 7544; for IM2512, long - order increase was 693, and short - order increase was 1559; for IM2603, data was not announced [5]. 4. Important Driving Factors - **Policy - related**: The Politburo meeting emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability, promoting domestic and international dual - circulation, and achieving the goals of economic and social development for the year. The党外人士座谈会 also focused on promoting economic development in the second half of the year [6][7]. - **International Factor**: Powell did not give guidance on a September interest - rate cut, stating that it was too early to determine, and that the current interest - rate level was appropriate given the uncertainties in tariffs and inflation. He also said the job market was not weakening [7].
期指:震荡格局,下有支撑
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 03:08
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The futures index is in a volatile pattern with support at the bottom [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Index Data Tracking - On July 26, 2025, the current - month contracts of the four major futures indices showed mixed performance. IF fell 0.48%, IH fell 0.58%, IC fell 0.02%, and IM rose 0.03% [1]. - In terms of closing prices, index values were as follows: CSI 300 was 4127.16, SSE 50 was 2795.51, CSI 500 was 6299.59, and CSI 1000 was 6706.61 [1]. - In terms of trading volume, the total trading volume of futures indices declined, indicating a decrease in investors' trading enthusiasm. IF's total trading volume decreased by 21687 lots, IH's by 6615 lots, IC's by 18535 lots, and IM's by 45693 lots [2]. - In terms of positions, IF's total position decreased by 11192 lots, IH's by 3451 lots, IC's by 4233 lots, and IM's by 11290 lots [2]. 3.2. Futures Index Member Position Changes - For IF contracts, the long - order changes of IF2508, IF2509, and IF2512 were - 3625, - 5795, and 532 respectively; the short - order changes were - 4398, - 6036, and 881 respectively [5]. - For IH contracts, the long - order changes of IH2508, IH2509, and IH2512 were - 8, - 2468, and - 154 respectively; the short - order changes were - 508, - 2599, and - 51 respectively [5]. - For IC contracts, the long - order changes of IC2508, IC2509, and IC2512 were - 2215, - 1875, and - 182 respectively; the short - order changes were - 2087, - 2628, and 298 respectively [5]. - For IM contracts, the long - order changes of IM2508, IM2509, and IM2512 were - 2637, - 6387, and - 540 respectively; the short - order changes were - 3420, - 7360, and 142 respectively [5]. 3.3. Trend Intensity and Important Drivers - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with different levels of strength classification [6]. - The CSRC held a mid - year work meeting, emphasizing the basis and conditions for maintaining the stable and healthy operation of the capital market [6]. - In the first half of 2025, the national general public budget expenditure was 1.41271 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. Expenditures in key areas such as social security and employment, science and technology, education, and health increased [6]. - The US Secretary of Commerce said that the tariff increase deadline on August 1 would not be extended [6]. - A high - level US business delegation is set to visit China [6]. 3.4. Stock Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.33%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.22%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.23%. The A - share market's full - day trading volume was 1.82 trillion yuan, down from 1.87 trillion yuan the previous day [7]. - Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.67%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.33%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.76%, with all three major indices rising for five consecutive weeks [7]. - In the afternoon session, funds flowed out of cyclical stocks and back into the technology sector. Lithography machines and STAR Market chip stocks were in high demand, and Cambricon once rose 16%. The film and television and rare earth sectors were also active [7].
期指:震荡走势
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 01:56
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - On July 24, 2025, all the current - month contracts of the four major stock index futures rose, with IF up 0.71%, IH up 0.49%, IC up 1.61%, and IM up 1.6% [1] - On the trading day, the total trading volume of stock index futures declined, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF decreased by 16,976 lots, IH by 13,034 lots, IC by 9,753 lots, and IM by 6,634 lots. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF increased by 2,311 lots, IH by 135 lots, IC by 1,553 lots, and IM by 35 lots [2] - The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The A - share market had a good performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.65%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.21%, the ChiNext Index up 1.5%, and the North 50 up 1.1%. The A - share market turnover was 1.87 trillion yuan, slightly lower than the previous day's 1.9 trillion yuan [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures Data - **IF Contracts**: IF2508 closed at 4,147 with a 0.71% increase, a basis of - 2.04, a turnover of 37.62 billion yuan, a trading volume of 30,340 lots (down 1,946 lots), and a position of 47,426 lots (up 357 lots); IF2509 closed at 4,141.2 with a 0.76% increase, a basis of - 7.84, a turnover of 80.85 billion yuan, a trading volume of 65,298 lots (down 10,716 lots), and a position of 163,125 lots (up 1,443 lots); IF2512 closed at 4,111.8 with a 0.78% increase, a basis of - 37.24, a turnover of 17.36 billion yuan, a trading volume of 14,115 lots (down 3,732 lots), and a position of 53,553 lots (down 269 lots); IF2603 closed at 4,083.4 with a 0.78% increase, a basis of - 65.64, a turnover of 5.35 billion yuan, a trading volume of 4,380 lots (down 582 lots), and a position of 7,264 lots (up 780 lots) [1] - **IH Contracts**: IH2508 closed at 2,815.4 with a 0.49% increase, a basis of 2.96, a turnover of 1.077 billion yuan, a trading volume of 12,773 lots (down 3,448 lots), and a position of 20,633 lots (down 224 lots); IH2509 closed at 2,816.6 with a 0.50% increase, a basis of 4.16, a turnover of 2.894 billion yuan, a trading volume of 34,309 lots (down 8,089 lots), and a position of 63,790 lots (up 95 lots); IH2512 closed at 2,818 with a 0.49% increase, a basis of 5.56, a turnover of 442 million yuan, a trading volume of 5,242 lots (down 1,496 lots), and a position of 14,530 lots (up 95 lots); IH2603 closed at 2,818 with a 0.43% increase, a basis of 5.56, a turnover of 128 million yuan, a trading volume of 1,518 lots (down 1 lot), and a position of 1,938 lots (up 169 lots) [1] - **IC Contracts**: IC2508 closed at 6,269.6 with a 1.61% increase, a basis of - 24, a turnover of 3.22 billion yuan, a trading volume of 25,848 lots (down 1,438 lots), and a position of 53,361 lots (up 1,361 lots); IC2509 closed at 6,226 with a 1.72% increase, a basis of - 67.6, a turnover of 6.096 billion yuan, a trading volume of 49,292 lots (down 5,044 lots), and a position of 109,680 lots (up 284 lots); IC2512 closed at 6,104.6 with a 1.79% increase, a basis of - 189, a turnover of 1.802 billion yuan, a trading volume of 14,865 lots (down 2,494 lots), and a position of 57,871 lots (down 610 lots); IC2603 closed at 5,997.8 with a 1.95% increase, a basis of - 295.8, a turnover of 650 million yuan, a trading volume of 5,463 lots (down 777 lots), and a position of 8,877 lots (up 518 lots) [1] - **IM Contracts**: IM2508 closed at 6,675.8 with a 1.60% increase, a basis of - 25.32, a turnover of 5.751 billion yuan, a trading volume of 43,342 lots (up 960 lots), and a position of 64,427 lots (down 557 lots); IM2509 closed at 6,618.6 with a 1.84% increase, a basis of - 82.52, a turnover of 16.3 billion yuan, a trading volume of 124,051 lots (down 7,313 lots), and a position of 181,457 lots (up 72,061 lots); IM2512 closed at 6,435.4 with a 1.88% increase, a basis of - 265.72, a turnover of 3.716 billion yuan, a trading volume of 29,081 lots (down 610 lots), and a position of 79,069 lots (up 96 lots); IM2603 closed at 6,273.2 with a 1.86% increase, a basis of - 427.92, a turnover of 1.076 billion yuan, a trading volume of 8,632 lots (up 329 lots), and a position of 13,360 lots (up 1,094 lots) [1] Positions of the Top 20 Futures Members - **IF Contracts**: For IF2508, long positions increased by 197 lots, and short positions increased by 808 lots with a net short - position change of 2,370 lots; for IF2509, long positions decreased by 108 lots with a net long - position change of - 645 lots, and short positions increased by 1,821 lots; for IF2512, long positions decreased by 734 lots, and short positions decreased by 259 lots [5] - **IH Contracts**: For IH2508 and IH2509, long positions decreased by 164 lots with a net long - position change of - 62 lots, and short positions increased by 171 lots; for IH2509, long positions increased by 77 lots, and short positions increased by 345 lots; for IH2512, long positions increased by 25 lots, and short positions increased by 231 lots with a net short - position change of 747 lots [5] - **IC Contracts**: For IC2508, long positions increased by 778 lots, and short positions increased by 1,333 lots; for IC2509, long positions decreased by 1,091 lots with a net long - position change of - 434 lots, and short positions increased by 3 lots with a net short - position change of 996 lots; for IC2512, long positions decreased by 121 lots, and short positions decreased by 340 lots [5] - **IM Contracts**: For IM2508, long positions decreased by 533 lots with a net long - position change of - 1,886 lots, and short positions increased by 414 lots; for IM2509, long positions decreased by 560 lots, and short positions decreased by 904 lots with a net short - position change of - 715 lots; for IM2512, long positions decreased by 793 lots, and short positions decreased by 225 lots [5] Important Drivers - The Chinese President met with the President of the European Council and the President of the European Commission, emphasizing the importance of China - EU cooperation [6] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a public consultation on the draft amendment to the Price Law of the People's Republic of China, aiming to clarify the standards for identifying improper price behaviors [6] - The A - share market had a good performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing above 3,600 points for the first time since January 2022, and the ChiNext Index leading the gains. Nearly 4,400 stocks rose, and the short - term sentiment and the index both showed signs of recovery [6]
期指:或转为震荡格局
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 01:51
Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - The stock index futures may shift to a volatile pattern [3] Group 3: Summary of Key Information 1. Index Futures Data - On July 23, the monthly contracts of the four major index futures showed mixed trends. IF rose 0.27%, IH rose 0.46%, IC rose 0.07%, and IM rose 0.01% [1] - In terms of trading volume, the total trading volume of index futures rebounded. IF increased by 13,706 lots, IH by 7,078 lots, IC by 12,645 lots, and IM by 19,443 lots. In terms of positions, IF's total position increased by 1,510 lots, IH decreased by 1,022 lots, IC increased by 2,910 lots, and IM increased by 9,947 lots [1][2] 2. Basis of Index Futures - The report presents the basis trends of IF, IH, IC, and IM from June 27 to July 23 through charts [4] 3. Positions of the Top 20 Futures Members - In the IF series, IF2508's long - position decreased by 56 lots, and short - position decreased by 892 lots; IF2509's long - position decreased by 1,337 lots, and short - position decreased by 515 lots; IF2512's long - position increased by 515 lots, and short - position increased by 553 lots [5] - In the IH series, IH2508's long - position decreased by 569 lots, and short - position decreased by 476 lots; IH2509's long - position decreased by 1,610 lots, and short - position decreased by 1,337 lots; IH2512's long - position increased by 110 lots, and short - position increased by 137 lots [5] - In the IC series, IC2508's long - position decreased by 2,175 lots, and short - position decreased by 1,925 lots; IC2509's long - position increased by 997 lots, and short - position increased by 870 lots; IC2512's long - position increased by 1,088 lots, and short - position increased by 1,539 lots [5] - In the IM series, IM2508's long - position increased by 2,420 lots, and short - position increased by 2,410 lots; IM2509's long - position increased by 4,084 lots, and short - position increased by 2,791 lots; IM2512's long - position increased by 1,568 lots, and short - position increased by 2,056 lots [5] 4. Trend Intensity and Important Drivers - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6] - Important drivers include: He Lifeng will go to Sweden to hold economic and trade talks with the US from July 27 to 30; the spot price of industrial silicon rose significantly this week, with the main contract's closing price rising from 8,745 yuan/ton to 9,525 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.92%. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.01%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.37%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.01%. A - share trading volume was 1.9 trillion yuan [6]