2月26日，加密货币市场在经历长时间的低迷后，于周三迎来了一场强劲的报复性反弹，比特币价格迅 速回升至每盎司69000美元附近。针对这一剧烈波动，Moneta Markets外汇认为，尽管市场情绪因短线 空头挤压而显著回升，但投资者仍需保持理性。目前的走势更像是在流动性匮乏背景下，对前期过度看 跌头寸的一次技术性修正，而非基本面发生了根本性反转，市场尚未真正脱离"危险区"。 从技术指标来看，比特币在70000美元至72000美元区间存在密集的抛压簇群。Moneta Markets外汇认 为，如果价格不能在周线级别稳固站上78000美元这一衡量资金实际流入的"真实市场均值"水位，那么 当前的结构性弱势将难以从根本上扭转。短期内的反弹若缺乏成交量的持续支撑，极易演变为高位接盘 的陷阱，导致价格再度陷入区间震荡。 展望后市，周五到期的价值约74.9亿美元的大规模期权交割将成为短期波动的放大器。Moneta Markets 外汇表示，在市场未能有效突破关键阻力位前，多头头寸的持有者应密切关注回撤风险。作为专业的交 易平台，Moneta Markets外汇将持续监测数字资产与外汇市场的联动效应，协助投资者在剧烈的价格震 ...

（来源：吴说） 来源：市场资讯 吴说获悉，据 GreeksLive，2 月 27 日将有 11.6 万张 BTC 期权到期，Put Call Ratio 为 0.76，最大痛点 75000 美元，名义价值 79 亿美元；同时有 20.6 万张 ETH 期权到期，Put Call Ratio 为 0.77，最大痛点 2200 美元，名义价值 9.8 亿美元。分析指出，明天到期的期权占总持仓 20%，共计近 90 亿美元，其中 BTC 持仓占比达近几年峰值。得益于近两日反弹，本周 BTC 和 ETH 隐含波动率（IV）有所上升，主 要期限 IV 分别在 47% 和 65%。 ...

吴说获悉，据 GreeksLive，明日是 2026 年首个月度交割日，超过 25% 的期权仓位即将交割。受美联储 未降息及缺乏重大事件影响，行情平稳，IV 持续走低。比特币重回震荡区间，90,000 美元压力与 86,000 美元支撑较强，市场波动预期下降，暂无破局因素。此外，近期机构持币大量流入交易所，市场 流动性压力较大，加密美股表现弱势，市场情绪逐渐偏向悲观，FUD 声量有所提升。 （来源：吴说） ...

新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：陈平 1月27日，在2026年开局的关键阶段，全球数字资产市场的领头羊正处于历史性的心理关口。ZFX山海 证券认为，比特币目前在8.7万美元附近的徘徊不仅是单纯的价格波动，更预示着其可能面临自2018年 以来首次出现的月线"四连阴"。这种连续四个月收跌的罕见周期，即便是在经历了量化紧缩与行业多重 暴雷的2022年熊市中也未曾上演，这表明当前比特币市场正在经历一场极其深度的估值重塑与筹码出 清。 从宏观回撤的幅度来看，本轮走势的疲软程度令市场屏息。自去年10月站上历史高点以来，比特币受累 于获利盘了结与宏观流动性收紧，已连续在三个自然月内交出负增长成绩单，区间累计跌幅高达36%。 ZFX山海证券认为，如果1月份不能在剩余的交易周内完成反转，这种八年未见的连跌模式将从技术心 理层面给多头带来沉重压力。然而，正如历史规律所示，极端的情绪压制往往也预示着反弹动能的积 蓄，关键在于即将到来的月底结算。 在波谲云诡的衍生品交易区，多空力量的终极对决已经拉开帷幕。ZFX山海证券表示，1月30日将在 Deribit平台迎来名义价值约85亿美元的期权大交割。尽管现货价格低迷，但 ...

Group 1 - The overall market trading is expected to remain weak until after New Year's due to the Christmas holiday, US stock market closure, and the exit of European and American institutions [1] - This Friday (26th) marks the annual options expiration, with over 50% of positions still outstanding [1] - The implied volatility (IV) for major terms has been declining, with Bitcoin's short-term IV dropping over 10% in the past month, and Ethereum experiencing an even larger decline, indicating a market consensus of low volatility or a bearish trend in the short term [1]

Core Insights - Institutional funds are entering the market to buy at lower prices, leading to a strong breakout in spot gold, which has surpassed the resistance level of 3725 [1] - Following interest rate cuts, macroeconomic benefits have significantly increased, prompting investment banks to raise their gold and silver price targets [1] - With options expiration approaching, October gold is facing seasonal selling pressure, and initial signs of cooling demand in Asia are being observed [1] - The market is closely monitoring the impact of these factors on short-term trading and the medium-term outlook for gold, with macro trading guidelines expected to be released soon [1]

Core Insights - Institutional funds are entering the market to buy at lower prices, leading to a strong increase in gold prices, which have consecutively broken through resistance levels [1] - The current spot gold price has risen to 3725, with macroeconomic favorable factors emerging significantly after interest rate cuts, prompting investment banks to raise their target prices for gold and silver [1] - As the options expiration approaches, October may face seasonal selling pressure, and initial signs of demand cooling in the Asian region have been observed, raising questions about the short-term operations and mid-term outlook for gold [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights significant options expirations in the cryptocurrency market, specifically for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) [1] Group 1: Options Expiration Data - 34,000 BTC options are set to expire, with a Put Call Ratio of 1.3 and a maximum pain point at $118,000, representing a notional value of $3.82 billion [1] - 220,000 ETH options are also expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.82 and a maximum pain point at $4,250, amounting to a notional value of $950 million [1] - This week, nearly $5 billion in options will be settled, accounting for 8% of the current total open interest [1] Group 2: Implied Volatility Trends - Implied volatility (IV) for BTC has shown a significant rebound, with mid to short-term IV rising above 35% [1] - For ETH, the main term IV has not reached 70%, while short-term IV has surpassed 80% [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the expiration of a significant number of BTC and ETH options, highlighting the Put Call Ratios and maximum pain points for both cryptocurrencies [1] Group 1: BTC Options - 39,000 BTC options are set to expire, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.95 and a maximum pain point at $118,000, representing a notional value of $4.6 billion [1] - The implied volatility (IV) for BTC remains low, with mid-term IV consistently below 35% [1] Group 2: ETH Options - 280,000 ETH options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 1.04 and a maximum pain point at $4,000, amounting to a notional value of $1.3 billion [1] - The main term IV for ETH is significantly higher, reaching 70%, aligning with the current volatility expectations for ETH [1] Group 3: Overall Market Impact - Nearly $6 billion in options are set to be settled this week, accounting for 9% of the current total open interest [1]