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地产发展新模式,重视城市工作会议:申万期货早间评论-20250718
申银万国期货研究· 2025-07-18 00:32
Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of urban work meetings and the need for a new model of real estate development, focusing on urban renewal and community building [1] - The U.S. retail sales have rebounded across various sectors, alleviating some concerns about consumer spending, with 10 out of 13 retail categories showing growth, primarily driven by a recovery in auto sales [1] - The Chinese Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has highlighted the need for comprehensive implementation of various livelihood projects and safety engineering [1] Group 2 - In the steel market, the profitability of steel mills remains stable, with a gradual decline in iron water production, while steel inventory continues to decrease [2][21] - The overall steel market is not facing significant supply-demand imbalances, and short-term exports are expected to remain resilient despite tariff impacts [2][21] - The macroeconomic outlook is strong, contributing to price increases in black commodities, including steel [2][21] Group 3 - The U.S. stock market indices have risen, with the defense and military sector leading gains, while the banking sector has lagged [3][8] - The financing balance has increased, indicating a growing interest in long-term investments in the capital market, which may reduce stock market volatility [3][8] - A-shares are considered to have high investment value, particularly the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are supported by technology innovation policies [3][8] Group 4 - The European shipping index has shown fluctuations, with the EC contract closing at 1581.3 points, down 4.28% [4][25] - Despite a general decline in shipping rates, the European line has not followed the U.S. line's downward trend, indicating a potential recovery in market expectations [4][25] - The focus is on the upcoming August shipping rates, with limited information currently available from shipping companies [4][25] Group 5 - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission reported that central enterprises achieved a total added value of 5.2 trillion yuan in the first half of the year [6] - The emphasis is on transitioning from labor-intensive growth to innovation-driven growth for high-quality development [6] - The National Intellectual Property Administration has reported an increase in the industrialization rate of invention patents from 44.9% in 2020 to 53.3% in 2024 [7]
制造业PMI连续回升:申万期货早间评论-20250701
申银万国期货研究· 2025-07-01 00:52
集运欧线: EC 早盘偏弱运行, 08 合约收于 1761.4 点,下跌 1.92% 。 6 月 30 日最新公布的 SCFIS 欧 线为 2123.24 点,对应于 06.23-06.29 的离港结算价,较上期上涨 9.6% ,对应于 6 月最后一周的结算 价,对应大柜运价超 3100 美元,超市场预期。 2506 合约交割,交割结算价为 1919.3 点。美西运价的 快速见顶和迅速回落以及马士基在 7 月连续两周的调降令市场对于欧线运价在 7 月中旬见顶预期加强, 市场跟随预期转弱。目前统计到的欧线在接下来的 7 月 8 月周均运力投放仍在 29 万 TEU 左右,较为充 裕,再加上马士基带头降价揽货行为对市场预期的影响,预计随着旺季预期的边际变化,后续市场将逐 渐转为博弈旺季见顶后的淡季现货运价,见顶预期将继续发酵。 股指: 美国三大指数上涨,上一交易日股指反弹,小盘股活跃,国防军工板块领涨,市场成交额 1.52 万亿元。资金方面, 6 月 27 日融资余额增加 9.06 亿元至 18274.60 亿元。当前市场整体开始有突破前期 震荡出现开始向上突破的迹象,操作上股指期货建议偏多为主,股指期权建议买权 ...
有色金属三十年|我眼中江铜与上期所相互成就的30年
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-27 14:42
Group 1 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has established a globally recognized system for non-ferrous metal futures and options, contributing to the rapid development of China's non-ferrous metal industry and deepening cooperation with global markets [1] - Jiangxi Copper Co., Ltd. has actively embraced the capital market, achieving significant growth and becoming a leader in the copper industry, reflecting the rise of both the copper industry and China's futures market [3][5] - Jiangxi Copper's journey in the futures market began in the 1990s, where it became one of the first companies to engage in futures trading, utilizing the Shanghai Futures Exchange's copper futures to strengthen its market position [5][6] Group 2 - Jiangxi Copper faced financial risks in the late 1990s due to domestic debt issues but successfully used the futures market to balance production and sales, ensuring 100% recovery of receivables through delivery [5][7] - The company established a futures department in 1998 and created a professional futures company, Jinrui Futures, which became an excellent member of the Shanghai Futures Exchange [6] - Jiangxi Copper's hedging journey has not been without challenges, as it faced significant losses during the 2008 financial crisis but chose to continue its hedging strategy, optimizing its operations and establishing a comprehensive risk management system [7][11] Group 3 - The company expanded its hedging practices beyond copper to include by-products such as gold, silver, and lead-zinc, evolving from simple hedging to a more integrated approach with futures market participation [8][14] - Jiangxi Copper has developed a robust hedging management system, including a decision-making committee and a risk control leadership group, to ensure effective and stable hedging operations [11][12] - The integration of futures trading into Jiangxi Copper's operations has significantly enhanced its competitiveness, allowing it to leverage market information and opportunities for better decision-making and service to partners [14][16]
美国通胀涨幅温和,美股期货、欧股全线上涨,金银下挫,美元指数走向六个月连跌
news flash· 2025-06-27 13:24
Group 1 - Spot gold prices have continued to decline, with a daily drop of 2%, currently reported at $3260.99 per ounce [1]
整理:每日全球大宗商品市场要闻速递(5月28日)
news flash· 2025-05-28 07:16
2. 巴西政府发表声明称,决定延长钢铁行业的贸易保护措施。巴西贸易机构对19种钢铁产品维持25%的 关税,并将该措施扩大到其他四种产品。 3. 法国与印尼签署战略防务合作意向书,签署农业和关键矿产领域合作意向书。 农业: 1. 墨西哥农业部:墨西哥与美国就重新开放墨西哥牛肉出口至美国的措施达成一致。 金十数据整理:每日全球大宗商品市场要闻速递(5月28日) 能源: 1. 阿联酋能源部长:欧佩克+正在尽最大努力平衡市场,确保供应方面有足够的投资。如果没有欧佩克 +,尤其是八国集团,局势将会陷入混乱。 贵金属和矿业: 1. 美国佛州州长签署法案,承认金银为法定货币。 2. 加拿大2025年3月油菜籽出口量为896968吨。 2. 路透调查:沙特7月对亚洲原油售价或降至6个月低位。 3. 雪佛龙从美国获得有限使用许可,可以继续在委内瑞拉运营。 4. 澳大利亚环境部:批准伍德赛德西北部液化天然气项目延长至2070年。 5. 阿曼2025年第一季度石油收入同比下降13%,至14.68亿里亚尔。 ...
商品日报(5月16日):商品大面积转跌 欧线原油及碳酸锂显著回落
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-05-16 10:41
截至16日下午收盘,中证商品期货价格指数收报1353.87点,较前一交易日下跌13.57点,跌幅0.99%; 中证商品期货指数收报1874.36点,较前一交易日下跌18.09点,跌幅0.96%。 金银小幅反弹供应收缩支撑硅铁小幅收涨 情绪转弱背景下,国内商品市场16日普遍走弱,尾盘仅硅铁、金银、沥青等品种小幅收涨。 在隔夜海外贵金属大幅反弹的带动下,国内金银16日小幅跟涨,但汇率因素和当日亚洲时段海外金银价 格回落,使得沪金沪银涨幅受限。短期内,避险需求和美联储货币政策走向的博弈,成为影响贵金属波 动的重要因素。但避险情绪减弱、美联储在降息上的谨慎态度,均将在短期内继续限制贵金属的反弹空 间。 虽然黑色系商品整体走弱,但硅铁供应收缩利多仍在发酵,这支撑硅铁期价16日小幅收涨0.92%,成为 当日领涨品种。Mysteel公布的数据显示,截至5月15日当周,全国187家独立锰硅企业和136家独立硅铁 企业开工率均环比下滑,日均产量不同程度下降,这表明硅铁产区减产仍在持续,进而有利于缓解铁合 金供应压力。不过,钢厂高炉开工率环比下降,铁水产量高位回落,市场对硅锰供需仍偏宽松的担忧不 减,或仍将构成硅锰价格进一步走高 ...
铜价能否继续走高?
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-05-07 00:23
Group 1 - The Peruvian government has implemented a curfew in the Pataz region due to rising crime, suspending all mining activities for 30 days, which may raise concerns about the stability of copper supply from Peru, the world's third-largest copper producer [1] - Peru's copper production for 2024 is projected at 2.736 million tons, accounting for approximately 10% of global output, indicating the significance of any disruptions in this region [1] - The Pataz region primarily produces gold and silver, with limited copper production, suggesting that the impact on precious metal prices may be relatively minor despite the mining suspension [1] Group 2 - The overall weakness in non-ferrous metals is attributed to two main factors: the impact of the trade war initiated by the Trump administration on the US economy and the significant fluctuations in demand expectations due to tariffs [2] - Domestic copper consumption in China exceeded expectations with an 8% growth in apparent consumption in the first quarter, but a seasonal decline is anticipated post-May, which may weaken the demand-side support for copper prices [2] - Analysts remain cautiously optimistic about copper prices in the medium term, despite potential high-level corrections, as the fundamentals appear strong, and the market is currently experiencing low inventory levels [3]
商品日报(4月28日):聚酯链集体领涨 油粕金属大面积下跌
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-04-28 16:05
中证商品期货价格指数日内走势图 聚酯链集体走强低硫燃料油午后拉涨 新华财经北京4月28日电(吴郑思、张瑶)尽管能化品种多数走强,但在金属、农产品等多数板块偏弱的拖累下,国内商品期货市场周一(4月28日)震荡 趋弱。截至收盘时,中证商品期货价格指数收报1376.15点,较前一交易日下跌5.55点,跌幅0.40%;中证商品期货指数收报1901.86点,较前一交易日下跌 7.67点,跌幅0.40%。 国际油价继续低位企稳,为国内能化板块震荡走升提供了积极助力,尤其是聚酯链商品集体表现活跃。截至28日收盘,短纤、低硫燃料油、PTA等均录得 2%左右的涨幅,分居涨幅排行前三位。瓶片、PX,沥青等涨幅也均在1%以上。 相比之下,金属板块延续调整,除了多晶硅再度重挫超3%、领跌商品市场以外,金银双双跌超1%,延续调整。另外,镍、锡、锌、碳酸锂等品种跌幅也 在0.63%至2.15%不等。 在油价回升的背景下,高低硫燃料油市场进一步企稳。其中,低硫燃料油期货在28日午盘终盘录得1.94%的涨幅,高硫燃料油则仅收涨0.46%。且从高低硫 燃料油自身来看,一方面随着气温升高,南亚中东等地区燃油发电需求旺季渐进,这利好燃料油需求。另 ...
商品普遍上涨,铁矿延续强势:申万期货早间评论-20250327
申银万国期货研究· 2025-03-27 00:36
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the general rise in commodity prices, with a strong performance in iron ore, amidst ongoing discussions between China and the U.S. regarding trade relations and tariffs [1] Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - Domestic commodity futures closed mostly higher, with energy and chemical products rising nearly 1%, and black metals showing an overall increase, particularly iron ore which rose by 1.48% [1] - Agricultural products showed mixed results, while basic metals experienced varied movements, with nickel up by 0.57% and copper down by 1.08% [1] Group 2: Key Commodities - **Apple**: The futures market for apples surged due to changes in delivery warehouses, with a reported cold storage inventory of 5.0061 million tons, a decrease of 234,500 tons from the previous week [2][35] - **Iron Ore**: Despite weak performance expectations due to supply-side changes, iron ore demand is expected to recover marginally as steel mills show strong recovery momentum [3][27] - **Urea**: Urea futures continued to rise slightly, with market prices in Shandong ranging from 1,850 to 1,900 yuan per ton, supported by demand and inventory reduction [3][34] Group 3: Domestic and International News - **International News**: The Federal Reserve's warning about potential inflation expectations disrupting interest rate plans highlights the uncertainty in the U.S. bond market [5] - **Domestic News**: The Ministry of Commerce announced measures to support the development of international consumption centers in major cities, aiming to enhance the consumption environment [6] - **Industry News**: The expansion of the national carbon emissions trading market to include steel, cement, and aluminum industries, covering over 60% of national CO2 emissions, indicates a significant regulatory shift [7]