期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 1 月 12 日 | 股指期货：春季行情确立 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：债市情绪或有缓和 4 | 0 / 48 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 蛋白粕：供应整体充足 盘面继续承压 5 | | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价震荡收跌，国内糖价小幅震荡 5 | | 油脂板块：关注今日 mpob 报告 6 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：小麦和玉米持续拍卖，现货稳定 7 | | 生猪：出栏压力好转 现货偏强运行 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面底部震荡 9 | | 鸡蛋：需求有所改善，蛋价稳中有涨 10 | | 苹果：冷库库存偏低，苹果价格坚挺 10 | | 棉花-棉纱：大宗商品下调，棉价价格大跌 11 | | 钢材：钢材转向累库，钢价延续震荡 13 | | --- | | 双焦：资金与情绪推动上涨，仍需关注基本面变化 13 | | 铁矿：市场预期反复，矿价高位偏空对待 14 | | 铁合金：成本端推动下，价格震荡偏强 15 | | 金银：非农数据矛盾交织叠加地缘风险 金银价格强势上行 16 | | --- | | 铂钯：宏观总体偏紧，232 ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 1 月 9 日 0 / 49 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：股指分化持续 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：国内"再通胀"叙事稍有生变 4 | | 蛋白粕：供应压力仍存 盘面整体回落 5 | | --- | | 白糖：大宗商品波动加大，国内外糖价震荡 5 | | 油脂板块：油脂整体震荡运行 7 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：小麦和玉米持续拍卖，现货稳定 7 | | 生猪：供应压力仍存 现货震荡运行 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面底部震荡 9 | | 鸡蛋：需求有所改善，蛋价稳中有涨 10 | | 苹果：冷库库存偏低，果价高位震荡 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：新年度种植面积预计下降，棉价震荡偏强 11 | | 钢材：钢材转向累库，钢价延续震荡 13 | | --- | | 双焦：市场情绪降温，注意回调风险 13 | | 铁矿：市场预期反复，矿价高位偏空对待 14 | | 铁合金：市场情绪整体降温，短期震荡运行 15 | | 金银：彭博指数开启调整 | 金银宽幅震荡 16 | | --- | --- | | 铂钯：BCOM | 调整权重 ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：波动不改上行趋势 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：修复动能偏弱 4 | 银河期货研究所 2026 年 1 月 8 日 0 / 48 | 蛋白粕：供应压力较大 美豆整体承压 5 | | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价收涨，国内糖价略强 5 | | 油脂板块：商品情绪回暖，油脂有所上涨 7 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：小麦和玉米拍卖，现货稳定 7 | | 生猪：出栏压力仍存 现货整体震荡 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面底部震荡 9 | | 鸡蛋：需求有所改善，蛋价稳中有涨 10 | | 苹果：冷库库存偏低，果价高位震荡 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：新年度种植面积预计下降，棉价震荡偏强 12 | | 钢材：市场情绪好转，钢价震荡走强 13 | | --- | | 双焦：波动剧烈，多单建议逐步止盈 13 | | 铁矿：市场预期反复，矿价高位偏空对待 14 | | 铁合金：供需边际改善预期叠加成本推动，短期震荡偏强 15 | | 金银：彭博指数开启调整 金银高位震荡 16 | | | --- | --- | | 铂钯：BCOM | 调整权 ...

ETF进化论 开年最强风口！比金银还疯狂。。 原创 阅读全文 ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 1 月 7 日 0 / 49 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 钢材：基本面边际转弱，钢价区间震荡 13 | | --- | | 双焦：延续宽幅震荡 13 | | 铁矿：市场预期反复，矿价震荡运行 14 | | 铁合金：供需边际改善预期叠加成本推动，短期震荡偏强 15 | | 股指期货：波动不改上行趋势 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：风偏上行，债市趋弱 4 | | 蛋白粕：供应压力仍存 美豆继续回落 5 | | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价小幅上涨，国内糖价略偏强 5 | | 油脂板块：商品情绪回暖，油脂有所上涨 7 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：小麦和玉米拍卖，现货稳定 7 | | 生猪：供应压力仍存 现货震荡运行 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面底部震荡 9 | | 鸡蛋：需求表现一般，蛋价稳中有涨 10 | | 苹果：冷库库存偏低，果价高位震荡 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：新年度种植面积预计下降，棉价震荡偏强 11 | | 金银：地缘主导 短期内或偏强震荡 16 | | --- | | 铂钯：资金做多情绪回暖 铂钯重归上行通道 17 | ...

1月6日上午，A股四大指数早盘涨跌不一，沪指半日涨超1%再创10年新高。截至午间休市，沪指涨1.14%，深证成指涨0.81%，创业板指跌0.04%，科创综 指涨1.05%。沪深北三市半日成交17961亿元，较上个交易日同期放量1472亿元。全市场超3600只个股上涨。 盘面上，脑机接口板块再度爆发，三博脑科、伟思医疗等近20只个股涨停。保险板块延续强势，新华保险、中国太保再创新高。券商板块拉升，华林证券 2分钟涨停。有色金属板块同样表现强劲，紫金矿业（601899）总市值盘中突破1万亿元。 券商板块拉升 华林证券2分钟涨停 券商板块6日盘中发力走高，早盘华林证券直线拉升，2分钟涨停；华安证券盘中一度涨停，同花顺、指南针等纷纷大涨。 | 序号 代码 | | 名称 | | | 涨幅% ↓ | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 002945 | 华林证券 | 1 | 17.84 | 9.99 | 1.62 | | 2 | 600909 | 华安证券 | 1 | 7.58 | 9.70 | 0.67 | | 3 | 300033 | 同花顺 ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 1 月 5 日 0 / 47 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | | | | 蛋白粕：成本端存在较大考验 粕类整体压力明显 5 | | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价大跌，国内糖价震荡 5 | | 油脂板块：地缘扰动再起，油脂波动增加 7 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：现货稳定，小麦开始拍卖 8 | | 生猪：出栏压力有所好转，现货阶段性回落 9 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面窄幅震荡 9 | | 鸡蛋：需求表现一般，蛋价稳中有落 10 | | 苹果：冷库库存偏低，果价高位震荡 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：新年度种植面积预计下降，棉价震荡偏强 12 | | 铅：供需双弱 铅价区间震荡 22 | | --- | | 镍：配额削减预期助力镍价强势上涨 23 | | 不锈钢：跟随镍价偏强运行 24 | | 工业硅：短期反弹，中期逢高沽空 24 | | 多晶硅：长期偏强，短期注意风险管理 25 | | 碳酸锂：高位运行，谨慎操作 25 | | 锡：地缘政治动荡加剧，锡价或波动加剧 26 | | | | | 原油：地缘扰动频繁，油价波动加剧 29 | | --- | ...

Market Overview - On the last trading day of 2025, US stock index futures collectively declined, with technology stocks under pressure in pre-market trading [1] - The market experienced light trading due to holiday factors, with European stocks showing mixed results [2] - Major global exchanges shortened trading hours, with Japan, South Korea, and Germany closed, and France and the UK closing early [1] Key Market Movements - The Dow futures fell by 0.15%, S&P 500 futures dropped by 0.26%, and Nasdaq futures decreased by nearly 0.4% [1][4] - The 10-year US Treasury yield decreased by 1 basis point to 4.11% [3] - The US dollar remained stable, while the euro and yen both fell by 0.1% against the dollar [3] Commodity and Cryptocurrency Performance - Spot silver plummeted over 5.4% to $72 per ounce, with a significant drop of nearly 7% at one point [3][4] - Spot gold decreased by 0.2% to $4,329 per ounce, while WTI crude oil rose by 0.3% to $58.1 per barrel [3] - Bitcoin increased by 0.3% to $88,476.81, and Ethereum rose by 0.2% to $2,971.16 [3] Analyst Insights - Market dynamics are influenced more by divergence than direction as the year-end approaches, which has somewhat suppressed risk appetite [1] - Investment portfolio adjustments may be occurring as fund managers seek to align their holdings with benchmark indices after a strong year [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and volatile trend at the end of the year. Various factors such as policy, supply - demand, and geopolitical situation affect different sectors. For example, the stock index is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend before the end of the year due to sector rotation; the bond market sentiment is average with limited new information and is waiting for the release of official PMI data; different commodity futures also show different trends based on their own fundamentals and external factors [21][24]. Summary by Category Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The market closes steadily. The index shows a volatile upward trend due to sector rotation. It is recommended to go long on dips, conduct IM/IC futures - ETF arbitrage when the discount widens, and use a bull spread for options [21][22]. - **Treasury Futures**: The performance at the close is differentiated. The market is waiting for the official PMI data. It is recommended to hold short positions in TS and TF lightly and wait and see for arbitrage [24]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: There is still supply pressure, and the market shows a small - scale shock. It is recommended to lay out a small number of long positions, narrow the MRM spread, and use a short straddle strategy for options [28]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price drops sharply, and the domestic price follows weakly. It is expected to oscillate near the current platform. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and sell put options [33][34]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: There is still a lack of obvious drivers, and the rebound space may be limited. It is recommended to hold a light position before the festival, go short after the rebound, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [35]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The spot price rises, but the futures price falls from a high level. It is recommended to go long on dips for the 03 and 07 contracts, narrow the 03 corn - starch spread, and wait and see for options [39]. - **Hogs**: The supply pressure decreases, and the spot price continues to be strong. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price shows a narrow - range shock. It is recommended that the 05 contract oscillates at the bottom, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option [47]. - **Eggs**: The demand slightly recovers, but the price drops. It is recommended to go long on far - month contracts on dips and wait and see for arbitrage and options [51]. - **Apples**: The demand is average, and the price is mainly stable. It is recommended to oscillate in the short - term range, go long on the 1 contract and short on the 10 contract for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [56]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The new cotton sales are good, and the price oscillates strongly. It is recommended that the US cotton oscillates in the range, the Zhengzhou cotton oscillates strongly with a possible short - term callback risk, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [60]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The raw material replenishment starts, and the steel price maintains a range - bound shock. It is recommended to maintain the shock trend, short the coil - coal ratio and the coil - screw spread, and wait and see for options [62][63]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They oscillate and wait for new drivers. It is recommended to wait and see mainly or go long on dips lightly, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [66][67]. - **Iron Ore**: The market expectation is repeated, and the price oscillates. It is recommended to oscillate in the short - term [69]. - **Ferroalloys**: The supply - demand margin is expected to improve, and the cost drives the price. It is recommended to go long on dips, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money put options [72]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: They oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily [76]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Pay attention to position management before the New Year's Day holiday. It is recommended to go long on dips, conduct long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage, and wait and see for options [80][81][82]. - **Copper**: The short - term fluctuation intensifies. It is recommended to control the position, go long on dips in the long - term, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [83]. - **Alumina**: It oscillates mainly after the convergence of the warehouse receipt registration profit. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [87]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: It oscillates at a high level. It is recommended to go long on dips, pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of buying spot delivery products and shorting futures, and wait and see for options [91]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It oscillates at a high level with the sector. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [94]. - **Zinc**: Control the position reasonably before the holiday. It is recommended to oscillate widely, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [96]. - **Lead**: Pay attention to the impact of funds on the price and control the position reasonably before the holiday. It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions and hold the rest, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [99]. - **Nickel**: The news of Indonesia's reduction of nickel ore quotas boosts the price. It is recommended to treat it as an upward trend before a significant inventory build - up, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [100][101][102]. - **Stainless Steel**: It follows the nickel price and runs strongly. It is recommended to follow the nickel price to go long and wait and see for arbitrage [105]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It rebounds in the short - term and goes short on rallies in the medium - term. It is recommended to go short on rallies, conduct long - polysilicon and short - industrial silicon arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [106]. - **Polysilicon**: The long - term fundamentals are favorable, but the short - term trading volume shrinks. It is recommended to be cautious, conduct long - polysilicon and short - industrial silicon arbitrage, and sell put options [108]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The subsidy policy boosts the sentiment. It is recommended to control the position and be cautious, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [110]. - **Tin**: Some long - position funds take profits, and the price drops sharply. It is recommended to oscillate widely after the sharp drop and wait and see for options [113]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The MSK's price increase slightly exceeds expectations, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term. It is recommended to take most profits on long positions of the EC2602 contract and hold the rest lightly, and wait and see for arbitrage [114][115]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market trading is light at the end of the year, and geopolitical conflicts cause fluctuations. It is recommended to oscillate widely, conduct relevant arbitrage, and wait and see for options [117][118]. - **Asphalt**: The raw material contradiction is difficult to resolve, and the price oscillates strongly. It is recommended to oscillate, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [123]. - **Fuel Oil**: The near - end fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are weak. It is recommended to go short, conduct relevant arbitrage, and wait and see for options [126]. - **LPG**: The upward space is limited. It is recommended to go short on far - month contracts, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [130]. - **PX & PTA**: The polyester sales and cost weaken, and the price drops from a high level. It is recommended to oscillate at a high level in the short - term, conduct relevant arbitrage, and wait and see for options [132]. - **BZ & EB**: The pure benzene inventory build - up pressure slows down, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. It is recommended to oscillate strongly, conduct short - pure benzene and long - styrene arbitrage, and wait and see for options [136]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory continues to rise. It is recommended to oscillate widely in the short - term and weakly in the medium - term, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell call options [139]. - **Short - Fiber**: The processing fee is under pressure. It is recommended to oscillate, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [141]. - **Bottle Chips**: The supply - demand is relatively loose. It is recommended to oscillate, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [143]. - **Propylene**: The supply pressure is large, and the downstream product profits are differentiated. It is recommended to oscillate widely, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell both call and put options [146]. - **Plastic PP**: The PP inventory build - up rate slows down. It is recommended to hold long positions of the L 2605 contract, wait and see for the PP 2605 contract, conduct relevant arbitrage and wait and see, and sell and hold the PP2605 put option [148][149]. - **PVC**: It oscillates mainly. It is recommended to rebound continuously, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [152]. - **Methanol**: It rises strongly. It is recommended to go long on the 05 contract, conduct relevant arbitrage, and sell put options on dips [154][155]. - **Urea**: It oscillates widely. It is recommended to pay attention to relevant policies and wait and see for relevant operations [157][158]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber**: The global economic data continues to improve. It is recommended to go short in the short - term, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [162]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The chemical industry production slowdown continues. It is recommended to hold short positions of the BR 03 contract, conduct relevant arbitrage, and wait and see for options [165].

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2025 年 12 月 30 日 0 / 45 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：震荡不改上行趋势 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：市场突发调整，空单适度止盈 4 | | 蛋白粕：供应压力较大 | 盘面整体回落 5 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：内蒙糖厂已开始停机 | 产量预计略增 5 | | 油脂板块：商品情绪转弱，油脂反弹空间或有限 7 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：现货上涨，盘面高位震荡 7 | | | 生猪：出栏压力减少 | 盘面上涨较明显 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面窄幅震荡 9 | | | 鸡蛋：需求表现一般 | 蛋价有所回落 10 | | 苹果：需求表现一般 | 果价稳定为主 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：新棉销售较好 | 棉价震荡偏强 12 | | 钢材：原料补库开启，钢价维持区间震荡 13 | | --- | | 双焦：驱动不明显，震荡运行 13 | | 铁矿：市场预期反复，矿价震荡运行 14 | | 铁合金：商品情绪回落，短期震荡运行 15 | | 金银：市场降温 金银大幅回调 16 | | --- | | 铂钯 ...