Asia Insights Global Markets Research Economics - Global Asia: IEEPA invalidation = Near-term relief, medium-term fog Lower tariffs are a positive for Asia's growth in the near term, but trade policy uncertainty is back. Negotiations will proceed at a slower pace. State of tariff play After the US Supreme Court (SCOTUS) struck down President Trump's International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs in a 6-3 ruling, President Trump announced that he would impose a 10% temporary import surcharge (la ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每 日 早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 2 月 27 日 0 / 51 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：分化进一步加大 4 | | --- | | 国债期货：情绪仍弱，曲线熊陡 5 | | 蛋白粕：天气影响增加 | 盘面高位震荡 6 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价底部震荡 | 国内糖价略偏强 6 | | 油脂板块：美国生柴扰动，美豆油震荡上涨 7 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：产区现货稳定，盘面高位震荡 8 | | | 生猪：供应压力好转 | 价格小幅上涨 9 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面窄幅震荡 10 | | | 鸡蛋：节后进入淡季 | 蛋价稳中有落 10 | | 苹果：冷库库存偏低 | 优质苹果价格坚挺 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面有所支撑 | 棉价表现偏强 12 | | 钢材：钢厂继续检修，钢价压力仍存 14 | | --- | | 双焦：波动较大，但不构成趋势 14 | | 铁矿：基本面持续弱化，矿价偏弱运行 15 | | 铁合金：锰矿扰动存不确定性，多单减持 16 | | 金银：多空因素共存，预计维持高位震荡 18 | | --- | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Wednesday saw continued rises in stock index futures, with the overall market showing an upward trend driven by price - rising themes. The bond market was affected by real - estate policies and showed a complex short - term trend but remained optimistic in the medium - term. In the agricultural products market, factors such as weather and production forecasts influenced prices. The black metal market was affected by policies and demand recovery, with steel prices expected to oscillate. The non - ferrous metal market was influenced by macro and geopolitical factors, with prices showing different trends. The shipping and carbon emission markets were affected by geopolitical and policy factors. The energy and chemical market was affected by supply - demand relationships and geopolitical situations, with prices fluctuating [20][24][28]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: On Wednesday, the stock index continued to rise, with small - cap indexes performing better. Price - rising themes supported the market, and trading volume steadily increased. The trading strategies included going long on dips, conducting IM/IC 2609 long + ETF short cash - and - carry arbitrage, and using bull spreads [20][21][23]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On Wednesday, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The relaxation of real - estate policies in Shanghai was a negative factor for the bond market. In the short - term, the bond market may fluctuate, but in the medium - term, the outlook is relatively optimistic. The trading strategies included a neutral - to - bullish approach for single - side trading and waiting and seeing for arbitrage [24][25]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: CBOT soybeans and soybean meal indexes rose. Weather disturbances in the producing areas affected crop yields, and the domestic soybean market was volatile. The trading strategies included waiting and seeing for single - side trading, arbitrage, and using a short strangle strategy for options [27][28]. - **Sugar**: ICE and London sugar prices were volatile. Brazil's sugar exports decreased, and India's sugar production increase was adjusted downward. The domestic Zhengzhou sugar was expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend. The trading strategies included waiting for the international sugar price to break through the previous high, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and shorting put options in the short - term [30][33][34]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: CBOT soybean oil and BMD palm oil prices changed slightly. Malaysia's palm oil exports and production decreased in February. The domestic oil inventory was at a moderately high level, and the market was expected to oscillate. The trading strategies included short - term oscillation, considering reverse arbitrage for p59 and y59, and waiting and seeing for options [36][37][38]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: CBOT corn prices rose. The domestic corn market had stable prices in the northeast and falling prices in the north - central region. The inventory situation was complex, and the futures price was expected to oscillate. The trading strategies included a long - on - dip approach for the outer - market 05 corn, short - selling the 05 corn on rallies, and widening the 05 corn - starch spread [40][41][42]. - **Hogs**: Hog prices were stable overall, with supply pressure remaining. The trading strategies included lightly going long on the 05 contract, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and using a short strangle strategy for options [43][45]. - **Peanuts**: Peanut spot prices were stable, and the futures price oscillated narrowly. The trading strategies included lightly going long on the 05 contract on dips, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and shorting the pk605 - P - 7800 option [47][48][49]. - **Eggs**: Egg prices were stable to slightly falling after the holiday. The trading strategies included short - selling the June contract on rallies, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [50][51][52]. - **Apples**: Apple inventory decreased, and high - quality apple prices were firm. The 5 - month contract price was expected to be strong. The trading strategies included going long on dips for the 5 - month contract, long 5 short 10 for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [53][54][55]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The outer - market cotton price rose. The global cotton supply - demand situation was relatively tight, and the domestic cotton price was expected to rise. The trading strategies included going long on dips for Zhengzhou cotton, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [56][57]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices oscillated at night. After the holiday, the steel inventory increased, and the demand recovery was uncertain. The trading strategies included oscillating trends, shorting the coil - coal ratio on rallies, and waiting and seeing for options [59][60]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Australian coking coal prices were inverted, and port coke inventory decreased. After the holiday, coal mines resumed production. The trading strategies included going long on dips for coking coal, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [61][62][63]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices fell slightly at night. The supply was abundant, and the demand might decline. The trading strategies included a weakening trend for single - side trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [66][67]. - **Ferroalloys**: The cost of ferroalloys was strongly supported. The trading strategies included holding previous long positions, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and shorting out - of - the - money put options [68][69]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: London gold and silver prices rose. The dollar index fell, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield oscillated at a low level. The prices of gold and silver were expected to oscillate at a high level. The trading strategies included holding long positions against the 5 - day moving average, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and buying out - of - the - money call options or using a bull call spread strategy [71][72][74]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Platinum and palladium prices oscillated. Geopolitical and macro factors supported precious metals. The trading strategies included going long on platinum on dips, waiting and seeing for palladium, and long platinum short palladium for arbitrage [75][76]. - **Copper**: The copper price was expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term. The macro environment was favorable for copper consumption, but inventory increases limited the upside. The trading strategies included a short - term strong - oscillation trend, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and buying out - of - the - money call options [79][80]. - **Alumina**: The alumina price was expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of northern capacity. The trading strategies included a short - term oscillating - to - strong trend [83][84]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum price was expected to oscillate strongly. NVIDIA's performance boosted the market, and the supply - demand relationship was supportive. The trading strategies included an oscillating - to - strong trend, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [87]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cast aluminum alloy price was expected to oscillate strongly following the aluminum price. The trading strategies included an oscillating - to - strong trend, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [88]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price was expected to be bought on dips after a correction. The macro and fundamental factors influenced the price. The trading strategies included buying on dips after a correction, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [91][92]. - **Lead**: The lead price was expected to oscillate within a range. The market was affected by inventory and demand. The trading strategies included going long on dips with light positions, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and buying deep out - of - the - money call options [93][94]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price was dominated by macro factors. Indonesian policies and demand were the focus. The trading strategies included holding long positions at low levels, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and shorting out - of - the - money put options [96][98]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel price followed the nickel price. The cost was supportive. The trading strategies included holding long positions at low levels, waiting and seeing for arbitrage [99][100]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon price was affected by the resumption of production of leading manufacturers. The trading strategies included waiting and seeing, with the option of short - term long positions [101][102]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon market was bearish fundamentally. Attention should be paid to spot transactions. The trading strategies included waiting and seeing [104][105]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate price was likely to rise due to supply disruptions. The trading strategies included holding long positions at low levels, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and shorting out - of - the - money put options [107][110]. - **Tin**: The tin price was expected to be strong. NVIDIA's performance boosted demand, and supply factors needed attention. The trading strategies included a short - term strong - oscillation trend, waiting and seeing for options [111][113]. Shipping and Carbon Emissions - **Container Shipping**: The spot freight rate of container shipping decreased. The market was affected by the Iran situation and seasonal factors. The trading strategies included short - term oscillation and waiting and seeing [114][115]. - **Dry Bulk Freight**: The BDI index rose. The market was influenced by demand recovery and geopolitical factors. In the long - term, the supply and demand situation needed attention. The trading strategies included a positive short - term trend [116][117]. - **Carbon Emissions**: The domestic carbon market had sporadic transactions, and the EU carbon market was affected by policies and public opinion. The carbon price in China was expected to be supported in the short - term, and the EU carbon market was in a tight supply situation. The trading strategies included waiting and seeing [121][122]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ might slightly increase production in April. The oil price was expected to oscillate at a high level. The trading strategies included high - level oscillation, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and buying out - of - the - money call options [124][125]. - **Asphalt**: The demand for asphalt had not recovered, and the supply was expected to increase. The trading strategies included going long on the BU2606 contract on dips, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [126][127]. - **Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil price was affected by supply and geopolitical factors. The trading strategies included a strong - oscillation trend, going long on the FU2605 contract on dips, and waiting and seeing for options [129][131][132]. - **LPG**: The LPG outer - market was strong. The domestic market was expected to oscillate at a high level. The trading strategies included high - level oscillation, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [133][136]. - **Natural Gas**: The natural gas market was waiting for geopolitical guidance. The demand risk decreased, but the supply risk remained. The trading strategies included holding short positions for the US HH second - quarter contract, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [137][138][139]. - **PX & PTA**: The PX and PTA prices were expected to oscillate. The supply - demand situation was gradually improving. The trading strategies included oscillating consolidation, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [141][142]. - **BZ & EB**: The overseas supply of benzene and styrene was in a vacuum period. The domestic supply was stable. The trading strategies included oscillating consolidation, reverse arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [143][144][145]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol market had obvious inventory - building pressure. The supply - demand structure was improving, but the inventory was increasing. The trading strategies included range - oscillation, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [146][149]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber price was expected to oscillate. The trading strategies included oscillating consolidation, narrowing the processing fee on rallies for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [150][151]. - **Bottle Chips**: The supply of bottle chips was expected to be tight. The trading strategies included oscillating consolidation, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [153][154]. - **Propylene**: Some propylene supply returned. The market was stable with a weakening trend. The trading strategies included oscillating consolidation, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [155][156]. - **Plastic PP**: The PPI of plastic products declined for consecutive months. The trading strategies included holding long positions for the L 2605 contract, short - selling the PP 2605 contract on a small scale, and waiting and seeing for arbitrage and options [157][158]. - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda price oscillated. The supply pressure was still there, and the demand was improving. The trading strategies included a weak - oscillation trend, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [160][161]. - **PVC**: The PVC price oscillated weakly. The supply was high, and the demand was low. The trading strategies included a weak - oscillation trend [163][164]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash price oscillated strongly. The supply was high, and the demand was resilient. The trading strategies included going long on dips, shorting glass and going long on soda ash for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [166][169][170]. - **Glass**: The glass price oscillated strongly, but the fundamentals were weak. The trading strategies included short - selling on rallies, shorting glass and going long on soda ash for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [171][172]. - **Methanol**: The methanol price oscillated widely. The international and domestic supply - demand situations were complex. The trading strategies included a strong - oscillation trend [174]. - **Urea**: Urea factories were reluctant to sell. The supply was at a high level, and the demand was expected to increase. The trading strategies included going long on dips, paying attention to the 5 - 9 positive arbitrage, and shorting put options on corrections [176][177]. - **Pulp**: The high inventory of pulp restricted the rebound. The market was in a supply - surplus situation. The trading strategies included holding previous long positions, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and shorting the SP2605 - P - 5250 option [179][182][183]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The demand for offset printing paper was average. The market rebound was limited. The trading strategies included short - selling on rallies, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and shorting the OP2604 - C - 4200 option [184][185]. - **Logs**: The log market had weak supply and demand. The price was affected by supply and demand and cost. The trading strategies included waiting and seeing, with the option of lightly going long for aggressive investors, and paying attention to the 5 - 7 reverse arbitrage [185][186]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber**: The ANRPC had marginal production cuts. The prices of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber rose. The trading strategies included holding long positions for the RU 05 contract, going long on the NR 04 contract on opportunities, and holding the RU2605 - RU2609 spread [187][189]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The inventory build - up of domestic automobiles slowed down. The butadiene rubber price fell. The trading strategies included holding short positions for the BR 04 contract, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [190][192].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Spring Festival, the stock market showed a mixed performance with some sectors rising and others falling. The futures market also had different trends in various products, influenced by factors such as supply - demand, geopolitical situations, and policy changes [20][21][25]. - The bond market sentiment was not weak, but the market might become more cautious as the "Two Sessions" approached. The medium - term outlook for the bond market was relatively optimistic [25][26]. - In the agricultural product market, the supply and price trends of different products varied. For example, the supply of protein meal increased, and the price oscillated; the international sugar price bottomed out and oscillated [30][35]. - In the black metal market, steel faced post - holiday pressure, while the performance of coking coal and iron ore was affected by factors such as production resumption and supply - demand changes [62][65][71]. - In the non - ferrous metal market, precious metals like gold and silver were in high - level oscillations due to macro uncertainties, and other non - ferrous metals also had different price trends influenced by factors such as tariffs and supply - demand [76][79][84]. - In the shipping and carbon emission market, the container shipping market was in short - term oscillations, the dry bulk freight market showed a positive trend after the holiday, and the carbon price in the domestic market oscillated while the EU carbon price was affected by policies and public opinions [122][124][126]. - In the energy and chemical market, the prices of various products were affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand, and cost. For example, crude oil was in high - level oscillations, and asphalt was supported by cost but with weak demand [132][136]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - After the Spring Festival, the stock index rose across the board, but the trading volume was slightly insufficient. The market showed a clear differentiation, with some sectors rising and others falling. The trading strategy was to be bullish on the trend, buy on dips, and consider arbitrage and option strategies [20][21][23]. Treasury Bond Futures - On Tuesday, the bond futures contracts of various tenors generally strengthened. The central bank's large - scale net withdrawal of short - term liquidity after the holiday and the approaching of the "Two Sessions" affected the bond market sentiment. The trading strategy was to be neutral - bullish and wait and see for arbitrage [25][26][28]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - The supply increased overall, and the price oscillated. The trading strategy was to short at high levels and wait and see for arbitrage [30][31]. Sugar - The increase in Indian sugar production was revised down, and the international sugar price bottomed out and oscillated. The domestic sugar market was in a bottom - oscillation trend. The trading strategy was to wait and see for arbitrage and sell put options in the short term [32][35][36]. Oilseeds and Oils - The domestic oil market made up for losses and maintained oscillations. The trading strategy was to wait and see for arbitrage and consider reverse arbitrage for some contracts [38][39][40]. Corn/Corn Starch - The spot price in the production area was stable, and the futures price was in high - level oscillations. The trading strategy was to buy on dips for the outer - market corn and short lightly on rallies for domestic corn, and consider expanding the spread between corn and starch [41][43]. Live Pigs - The supply increased gradually, and the price continued to decline. The trading strategy was to buy a small amount of the 05 contract and wait and see for arbitrage [44][46]. Peanuts - The spot price was stable, and the futures price oscillated in a narrow range. The trading strategy was to buy lightly on dips and sell put options [47][48]. Eggs - After the holiday, it entered the off - season, and the egg price was stable with a slight decline. The trading strategy was to short the June contract on rallies and wait and see for arbitrage [50][51][52]. Apples - The market performance varied after the year, with the western region performing slightly better than the eastern region. The trading strategy was to go long on the 5 - month contract on dips and consider a long - 5 short - 10 arbitrage [54][55][56]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - The fundamentals changed little, and the cotton price was supported. The trading strategy was to go long on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [58][59][60]. Black Metals Steel - There was still pressure on steel after the holiday. The trading strategy was to maintain a weak - oscillation trend, hold short positions, and wait and see for arbitrage [62][63]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coal mines were gradually resuming production. The trading strategy was to consider going long on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [64][65][67]. Iron Ore - The fundamentals continued to weaken, and the ore price was in a weak - running state. The trading strategy was to be bearish and wait and see for arbitrage [70][71]. Ferroalloys - The cost support was strong, and it could be used as a long - position configuration on dips. The trading strategy was to go long on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [72][73][74]. Non - Ferrous Metals Gold and Silver - The macro uncertainties continued, and the prices were in high - level oscillations. The trading strategy was to hold long positions cautiously and consider option strategies [76][79][80]. Platinum and Palladium - Supported by macro and geopolitical factors, platinum could be bought on dips, and palladium could be traded in bands. Consider a long - platinum short - palladium arbitrage [80][81][83]. Copper - Affected by continuous tariff disturbances, the copper price was in a strong - oscillation state. The trading strategy was to be bullish in the long - term and consider option strategies [84][85]. Alumina - After the decline in the supply - side operating rate, the spot price was supported. The trading strategy was to be bullish in the short - term [86][87]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Tariff disturbances did not change the supply - demand support pattern. The trading strategy was to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [89][91][92]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - It oscillated with the aluminum price. The trading strategy was to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [93][95]. Zinc - After the correction stabilized, it could be bought on dips. The trading strategy was to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [96][97]. Lead - It oscillated in a range. The trading strategy was to go long lightly on dips and consider option strategies [99][100]. Nickel - The macro factors dominated the price fluctuations. The trading strategy was to hold long positions at low levels and wait and see for arbitrage [101][103][104]. Stainless Steel - Supported by cost, it followed the nickel price. The trading strategy was to hold long positions at low levels and wait and see for arbitrage [106]. Industrial Silicon - Attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of large factories. The trading strategy was to rebound in the short - term and short on rallies in the medium - term [107][108]. Polysilicon - Driven by merger news, it might rebound in the short - term, and the spot price should be focused on in the medium - term [110][111]. Lithium Carbonate - The demand was good, and the price was at a high level. The trading strategy was to wait and see [113][115]. Tin - Attention should be paid to macro - policy trends. The trading strategy was to hold long positions at low levels and wait and see for arbitrage [118][120]. Shipping and Carbon Emissions Container Shipping - It was mainly in short - term oscillations, and attention should be paid to Maersk's opening - cabin price. The trading strategy was to wait and see for both single - side trading and arbitrage [121][122][124]. Dry Bulk Freight - After the holiday, the demand recovery drove the spot price to improve. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US Maritime Action Plan. The trading strategy was to wait and see [124][125][126]. Carbon Emissions - The domestic carbon price oscillated, and the EU carbon price was affected by policies and public opinions. The trading strategy was to wait and see [126][127][128]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The API inventory increased more than expected. The trading strategy was to be bullish on the trend, consider the bullish spread, and buy out - of - the - money call options [132][133]. Asphalt - The cost supported the spot price, but the rigid demand had not recovered. The trading strategy was to go long on the BU2606 contract on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [134][136][137]. Fuel Oil - The high - sulfur supply increased, and the low - sulfur price strengthened in the near - term. The trading strategy was to be bullish on the trend, consider expanding the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, and wait and see for options [139][140][141]. LPG - It was still dominated by geopolitical factors. The trading strategy was to wait and see for both single - side trading and arbitrage [142]. Natural Gas - It was waiting for geopolitical guidance. The trading strategy was to hold short positions on the HH second - quarter contract and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [145][146][147]. PX & PTA - Driven by cost. The trading strategy was to hold long positions, consider positive arbitrage, and wait and see for options [149][150]. BZ & EB - There was a supply vacuum in the overseas market. The trading strategy was to oscillate and consider reverse arbitrage [151][152]. Ethylene Glycol - There was obvious inventory - accumulation pressure. The trading strategy was to oscillate in a range and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [154][157]. Short - Staple Fiber - The polyester raw materials strengthened. The trading strategy was to be bullish on the price, consider narrowing the processing fee on rallies, and wait and see for options [158]. Bottle Chips - The supply was expected to be tight. The trading strategy was to be bullish on the price and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [160][162]. Propylene - The supply - demand support was acceptable. The trading strategy was to hold long positions and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [163]. Plastic PP - The L plastic was bullish on the trend, and the PP was to wait and see. The trading strategy was to go long on the L 2605 contract on dips and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [165][166]. Caustic Soda - The price was weakening. The trading strategy was to wait and see [168][169]. PVC - It was mainly in oscillations. The trading strategy was to go long on dips and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [170][173]. Soda Ash - The price was bullish on the trend. The trading strategy was to be bullish in the short - term, consider a long - soda - ash short - glass arbitrage, and wait and see for options [174][175]. Glass - The price was bearish on the trend. The trading strategy was to be bearish in the short - term, consider a long - soda - ash short - glass arbitrage, and wait and see for options [176][178]. Methanol - It was in a strong - oscillation state. The trading strategy was to go long on dips, consider a 5 - 9 positive arbitrage, and sell put options on corrections [179][180]. Urea - It was rising strongly. The trading strategy was to go long cautiously and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [182][183]. Pulp - The US dollar quotation increased, but the high inventory suppressed the rebound. The trading strategy was to hold long positions and consider option strategies [184][185][187]. Offset Printing Paper - The inventory was high, and the market rebound was limited. The trading strategy was to short on rallies and consider option strategies [188][189]. Logs - The supply and demand were both weak. The trading strategy was to wait and see and consider a 3 - 5 reverse arbitrage [190][192][193]. Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber - The gross profit of concentrated latex decreased for consecutive months. The trading strategy was to go long on the RU 05 contract and consider arbitrage strategies [194][196][197]. Butadiene Rubber - The growth rate of butadiene production slowed down. The trading strategy was to short the BR 04 contract lightly and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [198][200][201].

马年第一个交易日（2月24日）开盘，最强的板块不是人工智能，也不是机器人，反而是油气板块。通 源石油开盘后1分钟，20%封死涨停板。整个油气开采板块集体暴拉，准油股份、中曼石油、山东墨 龙、洲际油气等纷纷涨停。 分析认为，当前，美伊关系紧张推高原油市场地缘风险溢价，布伦特原油价格自66美元/桶升至72美元/ 桶，净多持仓回升至两年高位，1月看涨期权成交量达历史峰值。市场担忧美伊冲突可能升级为全面战 争，影响霍尔木兹海峡原油供应，推动油价短期冲高。 那么，春季躁动第二阶段是否从油气开始呢？ 实物资产打头阵 长假期间，外围实物资产，如石油、金银等大幅拉升，助力今天A股相关板块表现。早盘，油气股全线 大涨，通源石油、准油股份、中曼石油、山东墨龙、洲际油气等纷纷涨停。石油ETF一度大涨7%。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 开年"第一强"有些超出预期！ 有色金属亦集体飙升，板块涨幅超过3%。晓程科技、白银有色（维权）、湖南白银、江南新材等涨停 或涨幅超过10%。中国中铁等有色概念股亦大幅飙涨。 国金证券认为，当前原油市场由地缘政治风险主导，美伊关系紧张推升布伦特原油净多持仓及 ...

【光大宏观】假期海外地缘局势动荡，全球权益市场多数上涨，港股能源、半导体、软件表现偏强；大宗商品涨 跌分化，金银油齐涨，美元走强压制港股，但人民币升值及特朗普访华，总体提振节后权益市场的风险偏好。 美国较强的通胀和经济数据对于降息预期带来掣肘，短期降息交易较为波折～ 【光大宏观】假期海外地缘局势动荡，全球权益市场多数上涨，港股能源、半导体、软件表现偏强；大宗商品涨 跌分化，金银油齐涨，美元走强压制港股，但人民币升值及特朗普访华，总体提振节后权益市场的风险偏好。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It takes into account factors such as overseas market fluctuations, policy changes, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical situations to offer investment suggestions for each market segment. For instance, the stock index futures are expected to be in a structural market, while the bond market is influenced by factors like financial data and "Two Sessions" policies [19][20][23]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: Overseas market volatility during the Spring Festival holiday may affect the A - share market. The tariff rulings and subsequent tariff increase announcements in the US have caused market expectation chaos. The rise in oil and silver prices may stimulate the oil and gas, precious metals, and AI application sectors. The M1 - M2 spread narrowing is beneficial for market liquidity. The stock index is expected to be oscillating strongly, with the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices remaining strong. Suggested trading strategies include going long on dips, conducting IM\IC 2609 long + ETF short cash - and - carry arbitrage, and using bull spreads for options [19][20]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The January domestic financial data shows that the money supply is stronger than the financing demand, and the holiday high - frequency consumption data is also divided. Overseas tariff policies are uncertain. The central bank's attitude to protect market liquidity is clear, which is favorable for the bond market. However, as the "Two Sessions" approach, bond market sentiment may become cautious. It is recommended to gradually stop losses on short positions in TS contracts and wait and see for arbitrage [23][24][25]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The CBOT soybean and soybean meal indices declined. The impact of origin weather on production is limited, and the Brazilian export volume has increased. The US soybean price is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to short at high prices [27][28]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price rose during the Spring Festival. Brazil's sugar production is almost over, and the market focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere. Although India's sugar production is at a high level, the growth rate has slowed down. The domestic sugar supply is under pressure, but the international price increase may drive the Zhengzhou sugar price up in the short term, with a long - term bottom - oscillating trend [29][33][34]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The external market prices of soybean oil and palm oil fluctuated. The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased in February, and the export decline narrowed. The geopolitical situation and the US biodiesel policy have an impact on the market. The domestic oil inventory is at a moderately high level, and the oil price is expected to be oscillating strongly [35][36][37]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The CBOT corn price rose. The spot price in the producing area is stable, and the market is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips for the outer - market 05 corn and short the 05 corn lightly at high prices [38][39]. - **Hogs**: The hog price is declining, but the short - term decline may be limited. It is advisable to go long on the 05 contract in small quantities [40][41][42]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut spot price is stable, and the futures price is oscillating narrowly. It is recommended to go long on dips lightly for the 05 peanut [43][45]. - **Eggs**: After the Spring Festival, it is the off - season, and the egg price is stable with a slight decline. It is advisable to short the June contract on rallies [46][48]. - **Apples**: The inventory removal speed is acceptable, and the fruit price is oscillating strongly. It is recommended to go long on the 5 - month contract on dips and conduct long 5 and short 10 arbitrage [49][50][51]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The external market price of cotton declined. The global cotton production is expected to decrease, and the demand is expected to increase. The domestic cotton market has certain support, and the price is expected to be oscillating strongly [52][53][55]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The total inventory of the five major steel products increased, and the overall fundamentals weakened. The steel price is expected to be oscillating weakly. It is recommended to short the coil - coal ratio on rallies and hold the short position of the coil - rebar spread [57][58]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coal mines are gradually resuming production. The international and domestic coal markets need to be monitored. The coking coal price is expected to be widely oscillating, and it is advisable to go long on dips [59][60][61]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply of iron ore is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to wait and see [62][63]. - **Ferroalloys**: The cost of ferroalloys has strong support. It is advisable to go long on dips as a long - term position [64][65]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The overseas gold and silver markets showed a trend of first falling and then rising. Geopolitical risks, the risk of US economic stagflation, and trade policy uncertainties support the price. It is recommended to go long on dips based on the 5 - day moving average [67][68][70]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Geopolitical and macro factors support the price of precious metals. It is advisable to go long on platinum on dips and wait and see for palladium [70][71]. - **Copper**: The US tariff is expected to decline in the short term but may exist in the long term. The copper price is supported in the short term, and it is advisable to go long on dips [73][74]. - **Alumina**: The decline in the supply - side operating rate supports the spot price. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short term [76][77]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The tariff disturbance does not change the supply - demand support pattern. The aluminum price is expected to be oscillating strongly [79][81]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It is expected to follow the aluminum price and oscillate strongly [83][87]. - **Zinc**: It is necessary to pay attention to macro guidance. The price is expected to be widely oscillating, and it is advisable to go long on dips [88][89][90]. - **Lead**: The supply - demand is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to macro guidance and go long on dips lightly [91][92]. - **Nickel**: The market is dominated by macro factors. The low - position long - term positions can be held [93][94][95]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is supported by cost and follows the nickel price. It is advisable to buy on sufficient pullbacks [96][98]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is necessary to pay attention to the resumption of production of large factories. The price may rebound in the short term [99]. - **Polysilicon**: The industry is trying to maintain prices. It is advisable to seize low - price opportunities [100][102]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The demand is good, and the price is at a high level. It is necessary to operate cautiously [103][105]. - **Tin**: The concern about AI has increased. The price is expected to be oscillating at a high level in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to macro policies [107][108][109]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The spot freight rate is weak. The demand is declining, and the supply is changing. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and stop profits on the 6 - 10 positive spread on rallies [110][111][112]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical uncertainties are increasing. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly. It is advisable to go long on dips and conduct positive spread arbitrage [114][115]. - **Asphalt**: It is necessary to pay attention to the expected supply gap after the holiday. It is advisable to go long on the BU2606 contract on dips [116][117]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur supply is increasing, and the low - sulfur near - end is strengthening. The price is expected to be strongly oscillating [119][120][121]. - **LPG**: The international market is strong, and the domestic market is expected to be oscillating strongly [123][124][125]. - **Natural Gas**: The market trading theme changes frequently. It is advisable to exit the TTF or JKM positions and hold the HH short positions for the second quarter [126][127]. - **PX & PTA**: The geopolitical situation has increased the cost. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly, and it is advisable to hold long positions [129][130]. - **BZ & EB**: The fundamentals of styrene are weakening. The price is expected to be oscillating and consolidating [131][132]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The inventory accumulation pressure is obvious. The price is expected to be oscillating within a range [133][134]. - **Short - Fiber**: The raw material price is rising, and the processing fee is under pressure. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly [135][136]. - **Bottle Chips**: The spot supply is decreasing. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly [137]. - **Propylene**: The supply - demand support is acceptable. It is advisable to hold long positions [139]. - **Plastics and PP**: The L contract warehouse receipts are flat, and the PP contract warehouse receipts are accumulating. It is advisable to wait and see for the L 2605 contract and short the PP 2605 contract lightly [140][141][142]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price is oscillating. It is necessary to wait and see [143][144]. - **PVC**: The price is mainly oscillating. It is advisable to go long on dips [146][147][148]. - **Soda Ash**: The price is expected to rise first and then fall. It is advisable to short glass and go long on soda ash on appropriate occasions [150][151][154]. - **Glass**: The price is running weakly. It is advisable to short glass and go long on soda ash on appropriate occasions [153][154]. - **Methanol**: Driven by geopolitics, the price is expected to be strongly oscillating [156][157]. - **Urea**: The price is rising strongly. It is advisable to go long on dips and pay attention to the 5 - 9 positive spread [159][160][161]. - **Pulp**: The US dollar quotation is rising, but the high inventory restricts the rebound. It is advisable to wait and see and conduct range trading [162]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The inventory is high, and the market rebound is limited. It is advisable to short on rallies [166]. - **Logs**: The supply - demand is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the resumption of work after the holiday. It is advisable for aggressive investors to go long in small quantities [168][170]. - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The external market is strengthening. It is advisable to wait and see for the RU 05 contract and hold the short position for the NR 04 contract [171][173][174]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The warehouse receipts accumulated significantly before the holiday. It is advisable to wait and see for the BR 04 contract [175][177].

早上好，今天是正月初八！开工大吉，开市大吉！ 我们先看一下重要消息！ 深夜，美股三大股指集体重挫，金银价格大涨！ 截至当地时间2月23日收盘，美股三大指数收盘均跌超1%，道指跌1.66%，纳指跌1.13%，标普500指数跌1.04%。 与此同时，国际金银价格大涨，截至当地时间2月23日收盘，伦敦金涨2.52%，报5227.43美元/盎司；伦敦银涨4.49%，报88.3美元/盎司。 消息面上，美伊局势趋紧。 另据央视新闻报道，特朗普政府高层正在就如何应对伊朗僵局以及每种方案的后果展开辩论。目前，特朗普身边的一些人士敦促保持谨慎，但一些消息人 士认为特朗普本人倾向于发动打击。 23日晚些时候，特朗普通过社交媒体发文否认有关丹·凯恩反对美国对伊朗动武的消息，称相关说法"100%错误"。 特朗普表示，凯恩与其他人一样"不希望看到战争"，但如果在军事层面作出对伊朗采取行动的决定，凯恩认为这将是一场"容易取胜"的行动。 特朗普表示，是否采取行动的决定权在总统本人手中，并称自己"更愿意达成协议"。但他同时警告，如果无法达成协议，"那将是那个国家非常糟糕的一 天"。 以总理：若遭伊朗袭击 将以其无法想象的力度回击 美军参联会 ...

Group 1: Domestic High-Frequency Data - Retail and catering sales showed a significant increase, with average daily sales during the first four days of the Spring Festival rising by 8.6% compared to the same period in 2025, up from a 5.4% increase in the previous year [2][10] - Travel activity also increased, with an average daily passenger volume of 30.99 million during the Spring Festival, representing a 10.9% increase from 2025. Railway travel increased by 13.3% to 11.44 million, while civil aviation travel rose by 8.9% to 2.46 million [2][10] - Box office revenue for the Spring Festival was low, with an estimated total of around 6 billion yuan, which is below the levels of the past three years and similar to 2022 [2][10] - Real estate transactions were low during the Spring Festival, with average daily sales in 30 major cities at seasonal lows, making the data less relevant for broader analysis [2][10] Group 2: Overseas Macro Environment - The U.S. is experiencing increased uncertainty regarding tariffs due to internal conflicts between judicial and executive branches, with a recent Supreme Court ruling declaring many tariffs imposed by the previous administration as legally invalid [3][25] - Economic growth in the U.S. has slowed, with Q4 GDP rising by only 1.4%, significantly lower than the 4.4% growth in Q3, influenced by government shutdowns and reduced consumer spending [4][25] - Inflation pressures remain, with the core PCE price index rising to 3.0% year-on-year in December 2025, up from 2.8%, which may complicate future interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve [4][25] Group 3: Global Capital Markets - Most global stock indices rose during the Spring Festival, with the South Korean market leading with a 3.09% increase. The U.S. stock market also saw slight gains, with the Nasdaq up 1.51% and the S&P 500 up 1.07% [5][34] - Oil prices increased by 5.7% due to geopolitical tensions, while gold and silver prices recovered, with silver rising by 5.6% and gold by 0.7% during the same period [5][40] - Bond yields in major economies mostly declined, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield slightly rising to 4.08%, while other regions like Germany and France saw decreases in long-term bond yields [5][38] Group 4: Post-Festival Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to continue strengthening post-festival, supported by a weak economic backdrop and low financing demand, which provides overall protection for the bond market [6][43] - Seasonal declines in funding demand and limited impact from central bank liquidity withdrawal are anticipated, maintaining a loose monetary environment [6][43] - The low positions of trading institutions and the continued allocation by investment institutions driven by lower costs and declining yields from other assets are expected to stabilize the market [6][43]

李斯特的贸易保护主义，特朗普能用的基本都用了，奈何美元体系下的金融市场，说到底是听华尔街的，而不是听白宫的，我们只看到美国财政部和美联储 的冲突，但忽略了美国的金融系统实际上并不受美国财政完全掌控，美国有大量的交易策略都是在做空美国自己，这在东方是不可想象的，而正因为如此， 所以华尔街是不希望回到过去工业强国的时代，这种体系会影响其利差和杠杆的放大能力，从而增加他们投机时对自己的风险。 而美国持续的巨额贸易逆差，本质是因为其他国家对美投资效应旺盛，说白了"美国要做老大，那大家就都吃美国的消费增长和全球扩张红利"。 其路径是全世界的各种投资者都能通过美国的二级资本市场获得美国的扩张红利，并因为持仓问题在一级市场参与美国的扩张意志，从而驱动美元体系在全 球的决策配置。这点从经济学的角度去理解的话，就是国家综合实力实际上取决于其信用扩张基础上的融资能力，所以我们看到美债、美股、美国商品交易 所一起构成了庞大的全球性定价的美元池子，在这个池子里的是来自全球的资本在分享美国的红利，同时也被绑在了美国的金融体系之内，导致很多去美元 化的最后实际是从左手去了右手。 当然，造成逆差的原因还有很多，我们接下来就仔细分析下 一、 ...