Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content regarding the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non-ferrous metals, and energy and chemical products. It offers insights into market trends, fundamental factors, and trading strategies for each sector, suggesting that most markets will experience volatile trends in the short term, with specific market conditions varying [7][9][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The market is characterized by continuous rallies followed by pullbacks, indicating resistance to upward movement. Trading volume is insufficient, and investors are cautious. The index is expected to remain range-bound, waiting for a clear direction. Recommended strategies include reducing positions and waiting on the sidelines, conducting IM/IC long 2512 + short ETF cash-and-carry arbitrage, and using a straddle strategy for options [17][19][20]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Market sentiment remains cautious, and the recovery momentum is weak. Although the central bank's reverse repurchase operations indicate a slightly supportive stance, the market is still affected by investor behavior and sentiment. Short-term trading strategies suggest lightly betting on rebounds and paying attention to potential cash-and-carry arbitrage opportunities [21][22][23]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The international soybean market shows a pattern of high yields, with limited upside potential. Domestic soybean meal has significant losses in crushing profit, and future supply is uncertain. It is recommended to hold long positions in soybean and rapeseed meal, and adopt a sell wide-straddle strategy for options [24][25][26]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, Brazilian sugar production may be lower than expected, and international sugar prices are showing signs of bottoming out. Domestically, although new sugar production is increasing, high production costs provide some support. It is advisable to consider short-term long positions at low prices, conduct long January and short May arbitrage, and sell put options at low levels [26][29][30]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The high-frequency data of palm oil shows an expected increase in production and weak exports, with limited upside potential. Soybean oil follows the overall trend of the oil market, and rapeseed oil is expected to continue to reduce inventory. It is recommended to conduct short-term long and short trading at low and high prices or wait and see [30][31][32]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The U.S. corn market is expected to remain strongly volatile in the short term. The supply of domestic corn is relatively tight, and the spot price is strong. It is suggested to short the 01 contract at high prices, wait for the 05 and 07 contracts to pull back, and conduct 01 corn and starch spread narrowing arbitrage [33][34][36]. - **Hogs**: The overall supply pressure remains, and the pig price is expected to face some pressure. It is recommended to wait and see and adopt a sell wide-straddle strategy for options [37][38][39]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price of peanuts is stable, but the supply of oil peanuts is abundant, limiting the upside potential of the futures price. It is advisable to short the 01 contract at high prices, conduct 15 peanut reverse arbitrage, and sell pk601-P-7600 options [40][42]. - **Eggs**: The demand is average, and the egg price is mainly stable. It is recommended to go long on the January contract at low prices and wait and see for arbitrage and options [42][43][46]. - **Apples**: The demand is weak, and the apple price is stable. The inventory is increasing, and the sales space is squeezed by citrus fruits. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [47][48][50]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The new cotton is entering the market in large quantities, and the supply is increasing, but the demand is in the off - season. The cotton price is expected to be volatile in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for all trading strategies [51][52][53]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel price is range - bound, and there is still room to reduce hot metal production. The overall supply and demand of the steel market are relatively balanced, and the cost provides some support. It is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see attitude for the overall trend and conduct long hot - rolled coil and short rebar spread trading when the spread is low [56][57][58]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market sentiment is weak, and the downstream procurement is inactive. The price is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, but the downside space is limited. It is recommended to gradually take profits on short positions and close out the coking coal 1/5 reverse arbitrage [58][60][61]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is abundant in the fourth quarter, and the demand for domestic steel is weak in the medium term. The ore price is expected to be volatile and weak at high levels. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach at high prices [62][63][64]. - **Ferroalloys**: Under the trend of production cuts, the price is oscillating at the bottom. The fundamentals and cost of silicon iron and manganese silicon are relatively stable, and the overall valuation is not high. It is recommended to expect bottom - range oscillations and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [65][66][67]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The scenario of a December interest rate cut has become the baseline again, and gold and silver are expected to maintain a strong trend. It is recommended to hold long positions based on the 5 - day moving average and buy out - of - the - money call options [68][69][70]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The listing of platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has driven global market resonance. Platinum is expected to have more upside potential, while palladium is expected to follow platinum's trend but with weaker upward momentum. Recommended strategies include a long - buying approach, long platinum and short palladium arbitrage, and a call collar option strategy [73][74][75]. - **Copper**: The expectation of a U.S. interest rate cut has increased, providing support for copper prices. The global copper market is expected to face a supply shortage in 2026. It is recommended to hold long positions below 86,000 yuan/ton [75][76][78]. - **Alumina**: Substantial production cuts have not been implemented, and the pressure on alumina remains high. The price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to wait and see for trading strategies [80][82][84]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The overseas market sentiment is volatile, and the aluminum price fluctuates with the sector. The fundamentals support a relatively strong medium - term price. It is recommended to follow the external market's volatility and wait and see for other strategies [85][86][87]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The alloy price fluctuates with the aluminum price. The raw material cost is high, and the demand is differentiated. It is recommended to follow the aluminum price's volatility and wait and see for other strategies [89][90][91]. - **Zinc**: The price is in a wide - range oscillation. The supply may decrease, and the export volume is uncertain. It is recommended to hold long positions and be vigilant about the impact of overseas funds [92][93]. - **Lead**: Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of smelting cost support. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weakening. The price is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the cost line and wait and see for other strategies [94][96]. - **Nickel**: Production cuts stimulate the nickel price to rebound, but inventory suppresses the upside. The price is in a downward trend. It is recommended to take a short - selling position and sell out - of - the - money call options [97][98]. - **Stainless Steel**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the price follows the raw material's rebound. The price is restricted by inventory accumulation. It is recommended to take a short - selling position [99][100][101]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is range - bound, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions in a timely manner, conduct Si2601, Si2602 cash - and - carry arbitrage, and sell put options [101][102][105]. - **Polysilicon**: The price may rise and then fall in the short term. It is recommended to short - sell when the price rises again and set stop - loss and take - profit levels [105][106]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is recommended to buy on a full - scale long - term correction [106][107]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: Short - term driving factors are limited, and the oil price remains volatile [16]. - **Asphalt**: The spot market still faces pressure, and the futures price is weakly volatile [16]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil remains weak, and the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil continues to increase [16]. - **PX & PTA**: The current situation is weak, but the future expectation is strong [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: There is still an expectation of inventory accumulation [16]. - **Short - Fiber**: Domestic demand is seasonally declining [16]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Supply and demand are weak, and inventory is high [16]. - **Propylene**: Supply pressure remains high, and inventory is at a high level [16]. - **Plastic PP**: The inventory growth rate of domestic large - scale enterprises has slowed down [16]. - **PVC**: The price has a weak rebound [16]. - **Methanol**: Short - term support comes from gas restrictions in Iran [16]. - **Urea**: The spot price has increased, but trading volume has weakened [16]. - **Pulp**: High inventory suppresses the pulp price [16]. - **Logs**: The fundamentals continue to weaken, and attention should be paid to the potential impact of the deterioration of Sino - Japanese relations on log imports [16]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Supply pressure remains high, and the market has limited rebound momentum [16]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber**: The year - on - year growth rate of tire operating rates has slowed down [16]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: BD gross profit has reached a new low, while BR gross profit has reached a new high [16].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The document does not provide specific industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - **Financial Derivatives**: Stock index futures are expected to remain volatile, with leading stocks' attempts to rise making large - cap indexes perform strongly. Treasury bond futures may rebound in the short - term [17][22]. - **Agricultural Products**: Protein meal prices are generally supported, while sugar shows different trends internationally and domestically. The oil and fat sector continues to oscillate, and various agricultural products have their own supply - demand and price characteristics [24][27][33]. - **Black Metals**: Steel prices oscillate within a range, and the double - coking market sentiment is weak. Iron ore should be treated with a bearish mindset, and ferroalloys oscillate at the bottom [9]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Precious metals maintain a strong trend, and base metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc have different price trends affected by factors like interest - rate cut expectations and supply - demand [11][12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil prices have rebounded after touching the bottom, and various chemical products have their own price trends based on supply - demand and other factors [16]. 3. Summary by Catalog Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: On Wednesday, the market rebounded and then fell back. Indexes showed differentiation, and trading volume and open interest decreased. It is recommended to reduce positions and wait and see, conduct IM/IC long 2512 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage, and use the double - buy option strategy [17][19][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On Wednesday, treasury bond futures fell sharply. The sharp adjustment may be due to rumors of new public - fund regulations. In the short - term, it is recommended to moderately bet on the oversold rebound and go long at low positions [22]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: CBOT soybean and soybean meal indexes rose. In the international market, the supply of soybeans is abundant, and domestic soybean meal has price support. It is recommended to lay out a small number of long positions in soybean and rapeseed meal [25][26]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices continued to rise, and domestic sugar prices oscillated within a range. It is recommended to build long positions at low positions in the short - term and conduct long January and short May arbitrage [28][31][32]. - **Oil and Fat Sector**: The Malaysian palm oil has an expected increase in production and weak exports in November. Palm oil oscillates weakly, and soybean oil follows the overall trend. It is recommended to conduct short - term band operations or wait and see [34][35]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The spot is strong, and the futures oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to go long on the 12 - month corn on dips, wait and see for the 01 - month corn, and wait for dips for the 05 - and 07 - month corn [36][38]. - **Pigs**: The pressure of pig slaughter is still high, and it is recommended to wait and see and use the strategy of selling wide - straddle options [39][40]. - **Peanuts**: Peanut spot prices rose, and the futures rose significantly. It is recommended to short the 01 - month peanut lightly at high positions and conduct 15 - month peanut reverse arbitrage [41][42]. - **Eggs**: Egg demand is average, and prices are mainly stable. It is recommended to build long positions in the January contract at low positions [44][46][47]. - **Apples**: Apple demand is average, and prices are mainly stable. It is recommended to wait and see [49][50][51]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The fundamentals have few contradictions, and cotton prices mainly oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see [53][54]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices oscillate within a range, and there is still room to reduce hot - metal production. It is recommended to maintain the oscillating trend and go long on the spread between hot - rolled and rebar futures [56][57]. - **Double - Coking**: The market sentiment is still weak, and it is recommended to gradually take profits on short positions and continue to hold the 1/5 coking coal reverse arbitrage [58][59]. - **Iron Ore**: It should be treated with a bearish mindset, and it is recommended to be bearish at high positions [60][61][63]. - **Ferroalloys**: Prices oscillate at the bottom under the trend of production reduction. It is recommended to expect bottom - oscillating and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [64][65]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver maintain a strong trend. It is recommended to hold long positions based on the 5 - day moving average and buy out - of - the - money call options [67][68][70]. - **Copper**: Copper prices are supported by the increasing expectation of US interest - rate cuts. It is recommended to hold long positions below 86,000 yuan/ton [71][72][74]. - **Alumina**: Substantial production cuts have not been realized. It is recommended to expect the price to be weak and wait and see [75][76]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Aluminum prices rise with the external market. It is recommended to oscillate strongly with the external market and pay attention to the narrowing of the spread between East China and Central China [77][78][79]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It runs strongly with aluminum prices. It is recommended to run strongly with aluminum prices and wait and see [80][82][83]. - **Zinc**: It oscillates widely. It is recommended to hold profitable long positions and be vigilant about the impact of overseas funds [84][86]. - **Lead**: Pay attention to the impact of the capital side. It is recommended to take partial profits on previous profitable short positions and pay attention to the capital flow [87][88][89]. - **Nickel**: Production cuts stimulate the rebound of nickel prices, but inventory suppresses the height. It is recommended to be a short - position configuration [90][93]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supply and demand are both weak, and it follows the raw - material rebound. It is recommended to be a short - position configuration and sell out - of - the - money call options [91][94]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It oscillates within a range, and long positions should be held at this price. It is recommended to hold long positions, conduct Si2601, Si2602 cash - and - carry arbitrage, and sell put options [95][97]. - **Polysilicon**: It is strong in the short - term. It is recommended to try shorting after the price rises again and pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss [98]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical uncertainties still exist, and oil prices have rebounded after touching the bottom [16]. - **Other Chemical Products**: Each chemical product has its own supply - demand and price characteristics, such as asphalt oscillating narrowly, fuel oil with different trends for high - sulfur and low - sulfur, etc. [16].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a decline on November 20, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.4% to 3931.05 points, and overall market sentiment remaining low [2][4]. Stock Market Analysis - The stock indices mostly declined, with the Shenzhen Component down by 0.76%, the ChiNext Index down by 1.12%, and the CSI 500 down by 0.67%. The total trading volume was 1.72 trillion yuan, slightly lower than the previous day's 1.74 trillion yuan [2][4]. - The market opened higher due to Nvidia's better-than-expected earnings, alleviating some concerns about the AI bubble, but overall sentiment remained weak due to unchanged LPR and limited expectations for market easing [4]. - Real estate policies aimed at stabilizing the market were introduced, including measures from Foshan to promote healthy development in the real estate sector [4]. Bond Market Analysis - The bond market showed overall fluctuations, with the 30-year treasury futures down by 0.21% to 115.870 yuan. The 10-year and 5-year contracts saw slight increases [6][7]. - The People's Bank of China maintained a net injection of liquidity, conducting a 300 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net injection of 110 billion yuan for the day [6][7]. - The LPR remained unchanged for six consecutive months, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, which aligns with market expectations [7]. Commodity Market Analysis - The commodity market saw most prices decline, with energy products leading the drop. However, lithium carbonate prices surged, breaking through 100,000 yuan due to strong demand in the battery sector and tight supply [8][10]. - The price of lithium carbonate increased significantly, with a year-on-year consumption growth of approximately 44.5% in September [8]. Trading Hotspots - Recent popular sectors include dividends, artificial intelligence, quantum technology, and domestic chips, with a focus on capital expenditure and technological advancements [11]. - The market is advised to balance investments in dividend stocks, micro-trading, and industry trends while monitoring policy drivers and international commodity prices [12].

（文章来源：期货日报） 近期金银价格自高位回落，市场人士认为，这主要受近期美联储多位官员发表"鹰派"讲话影响，市场对 12月的降息预期明显"降温"。另外，随着美国政府重新"开门"，关税问题出现边际缓和迹象，市场避险 情绪下降，也对贵金属价格不利。但就长期而言，在"去美元化"的背景下，贵金属或延续牛市行情，仍 需持续关注贸易局势、地缘政治风险变化。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [4] Core Views - The report emphasizes the investment opportunities in aluminum and the continued price increase of rare earth metals. Recent expectations of reduced production in overseas electrolytic aluminum plants have raised concerns about supply. The rapid expansion of AI computing power may alter the electricity consumption structure, potentially impacting future electrolytic aluminum projects due to the long construction cycle of power plants. The Ministry of Commerce has announced the suspension of the implementation of four rare earth export control measures, leading to a moderate increase in rare earth spot prices. The overall outlook remains positive for aluminum, rare earths, copper, tin, gold, silver, cobalt, tantalum, and uranium [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - Concerns about electrolytic aluminum supply have arisen due to expected production cuts in overseas plants. The rapid growth of AI computing may change electricity consumption patterns, affecting future electrolytic aluminum projects [1]. - The Ministry of Commerce's decision to suspend certain rare earth export controls has led to a moderate increase in rare earth prices, with low inventory levels suggesting a potential replenishment cycle [1]. - The report maintains a positive outlook on metals including aluminum, rare earths, copper, tin, gold, silver, cobalt, tantalum, and uranium [1]. Precious Metals - COMEX gold and silver closed at $3995.2 and $48.0 per ounce, with slight increases of +0.33% and +0.04% respectively. The Federal Reserve may soon need to expand its balance sheet through bond purchases to meet liquidity demands [2]. - The report suggests a continued long-term upward trend in gold prices, supported by central bank and ETF buying. Silver prices may experience short-term volatility but are expected to maintain long-term elasticity [2]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices on LME closed at $10,695 per ton, down 1.1% from the previous week. Supply chain issues in Tanzania and Zambia are affecting copper trade, while downstream demand is showing signs of recovery [2][3]. - Aluminum prices on LME closed at $2,862 per ton, with a slight decrease of 1.6%. The report notes stable domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity and tight liquidity in aluminum ingots [3]. - Tin prices are expected to remain stable due to a recovery in domestic refined tin production and slow progress in Myanmar's tin mining exports [8]. Strategic Metals - Rare earth prices have shown a slight increase, with the report anticipating a recovery in export demand and increased purchasing intentions from downstream manufacturers [9]. - Cobalt prices are under pressure due to tight supply and reduced purchasing intentions from downstream manufacturers, but a long-term upward trend is expected due to supply constraints [10].

宏观慧眼 四中全会擘画"十五五"规划蓝图：以高质量发展筑牢中国式现代化根基 苏商银行特约研究员 高政扬 2025年10月20日至23日，二十届四中全会在北京召开，为新时代中国经济社会发展的关键阶段锚定方 向、擘画蓝图。此次全会审议通过了《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建 议》，清晰且系统地擘画了2026年至2030年中国经济社会发展的总体方向、战略重点与政策路径。 金价短期调整承压，长期支撑仍存 招金精炼有限公司副总经理 梁永慧 当前金银价格波动主要受政策预期、地缘风险及市场情绪三大核心因素驱动。从近期市场变化来看，此 前支撑金银上涨的关键利多因素均出现缓和迹象：地缘风险有所降温，中美经贸摩擦取得积极进展；同 时白银租赁利率从10月上旬34.9%的历史高位回落至5.6%，实物市场此前存在的供应紧张局面有所缓 解。在利多因素持续消化、避险情绪下降的背景下，前期积累的获利盘离场进一步加剧了金银价格调 整。 短期视角下，全球经济及地缘政治领域的不确定性因素尚未完全消除，仍将对金银价格形成阶段性扰 动。长期来看，美联储降息周期已正式开启，叠加实物金银供需缺口的客观存在，将为金银价格提供基 础性支 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that while the long-term expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve supports gold prices, Citigroup has turned bearish, projecting a price drop to $4,000, which increases market uncertainty due to institutional divergence [1][2] Market Dynamics - Recent regulatory actions have led to a sharp decline in the international precious metals sector, as overseas exchanges raised margin requirements and intensified oversight, causing significant selling pressure among long positions [1][2] - The failure to break through key resistance levels in the international market has resulted in domestic gold prices stagnating around the 1,000 mark [1][2] Short-term Outlook - The current market is characterized by a complex interplay of geopolitical expectations, policy directions, and regulatory interventions, leading to an anticipated period of high volatility and price fluctuations in precious metals [1][2]

Core Insights - Global metal traders are experiencing a record year of profits due to supply disruptions pushing metal prices near historical highs [1] - Major players like Glencore and Trafigura are expected to achieve their best trading performance, while IXM's CEO indicates the company will set a record for the third consecutive year [1][5] - The industry is witnessing a significant shift as energy traders enter the metal market, betting on increasing government focus on this strategic sector [1] Group 1: Profit Growth Drivers - Profit growth for large traders is primarily driven by a series of supply tightness and disruptions [3] - The exemption of import tariffs on refined copper by the U.S. created substantial arbitrage opportunities, allowing traders to profit from transporting spot metals to the U.S. [3] - Prices for copper, lead, and zinc have surged due to smelting capacity expansion and limited new supply, benefiting traders with long-term contracts [4] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The surge in gold and silver prices has also provided lucrative profit opportunities for traders, leading many firms to establish dedicated precious metals teams [5] - Glencore's metal trading business achieved a record adjusted EBITDA of $1.57 billion in the first half of 2025, with similar growth expected in the second half [5] - The industry boom has triggered a talent war in metal trading, with companies like Mercuria rapidly expanding their teams [8] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - New entrants like Vitol and Gunvor are adopting more cautious expansion strategies, resulting in modest profits from metal trading [2][8] - Gunvor's CEO noted that building a metal trading portfolio from scratch takes time and that the market is highly competitive [8] - Smaller trading firms are receiving acquisition offers, indicating a strong interest in the booming market, although some are not in a hurry to sell [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a daily morning observation of various commodity futures, including agricultural products, ferrous metals, non - ferrous metals, and energy and chemical products. It analyzes the market conditions, relevant information, logical reasoning, and trading strategies for each commodity or commodity group. Summary by Commodity Categories Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The market is generally stable with a fluctuating trend. International soybean pressure is high, and domestic soybean meal may decline under supply pressure. Suggestions include shorting at high points for the 05 contract, conducting M11 - 1 positive spreads, and selling call options at high points [15][16][17]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price is weak, and the domestic market is expected to follow the external trend. It is recommended to short at high points, and keep an eye on arbitrage and options [18][23][24]. - **Oils and Fats**: Affected by Indonesia's tax adjustment, the short - term trend is volatile. It is advisable to go long on dips, consider OI 1 - 5 positive spreads without chasing high, and keep an eye on options [25][26][27]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The pressure of new grain has weakened, and the price trend is strong. Suggestions are to go long on dips for the 12 - month corn externally, hold long positions for the 01 contract, and gradually build long - term long positions for the 05 and 07 contracts [27][29][30]. - **Hogs**: The supply pressure is still high, and the price is expected to decline. A short - side approach is recommended, along with LH15 reverse spreads, and keep an eye on options [30][31]. - **Peanuts**: Affected by the weather in the producing areas, the short - term trend is strongly volatile. It is advisable to go long on dips for the 01 and 05 contracts without chasing high, and sell pk601 - P - 7600 options [31][33][35]. - **Eggs**: The demand is good, and the price has stabilized. It is recommended to close out previous short positions, and keep an eye on arbitrage and options [35][36][37]. - **Apples**: The quality of new fruits is average, and the price is supported. The short - term price is expected to be strongly volatile. It is advisable to go long on dips, and keep an eye on arbitrage and options [38][40][41]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The fundamentals have not changed much, and the price is mainly fluctuating. It is expected that the US cotton will fluctuate, and Zhengzhou cotton will remain stable. Keep an eye on arbitrage and options [42][43][44]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The supply - demand situation has improved, and the price has rebounded slightly. It is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, and it is advisable to go long on the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar at low points, and keep an eye on options [45][46][47]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The spot trading is good, and there is support at the bottom. It is not advisable to chase high at present, and it is safer to go long on dips. Keep an eye on arbitrage and options [47][48][49]. - **Iron Ore**: A bearish view is taken in the medium - term. It is advisable to short in the medium - term, conduct cash - and - carry arbitrage, and keep an eye on options [50][51][53]. - **Ferroalloys**: After falling to a low level, they rebounded, but the upward drive is not strong. They are expected to fluctuate at the bottom. It is advisable to go long on short - term rebounds, and sell out - of - the - money put options [54][55]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: Due to the credit explosion of US regional banks, gold and silver prices have risen strongly. It is advisable to hold previous long positions cautiously based on the 5 - day moving average, and keep an eye on arbitrage and options [56][57][59]. - **Copper**: In the short - term, there is a need for consolidation, and the long - term trend remains unchanged. It is advisable to go long on dips, hold long positions in cross - market positive spreads, and keep an eye on options [62][63][66]. - **Alumina**: The supply - demand surplus leads to a weak trend. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and keep an eye on arbitrage and options [66][67][68]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The downstream demand shows resilience, and the medium - term trend is strong. It is advisable to go long on dips, and keep an eye on arbitrage and options [71][72][73]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The macro panic has subsided, and the price can be bought on dips. It is advisable to go long on dips, and keep an eye on arbitrage and options [73][76][77]. - **Zinc**: There are both bullish and bearish factors. It is advisable to short at high points, and keep an eye on arbitrage and options [77][78][80]. - **Lead**: The supply and demand are both weak. Be vigilant about the price falling from a high level. It is advisable to hold short positions, and sell out - of - the - money call options [81][82][84]. - **Nickel**: The inventory increase reflects an oversupply, and the price is under pressure. It is advisable to short at the upper edge of the fluctuation range, and sell a 2512 contract straddle [85][86][89]. - **Stainless Steel**: The demand is weak, testing the cost support. It is advisable to short on rebounds, and keep an eye on arbitrage [89][90][91]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Industrial Silicon**: It fluctuates within a range. It is advisable to short at high points and go long at low points. Wait for a full correction in the short - term, and keep an eye on arbitrage and options [91][92][95]. - **Polysilicon**: After an intraday correction and stabilization, continue to go long. It is advisable to go long after a correction, hold 2511 and 2512 contract reverse spreads, and adjust the previous double - buying strategy [95][96]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supported by demand and with uncertain supply, the price is rising in a volatile manner. It is advisable to go long in a volatile market, and sell out - of - the - money put options [97][100][101]. - **Tin**: The supply and demand are both weak. Pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate, and keep an eye on the market [101][102].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the consumer confidence index in the Eurozone has shown an improvement, with the latest value at -14.9, which is better than the previous value of -15.5 and the forecast of -15.3, suggesting a positive outlook for consumer spending and the Euro [1][2] - The consumer confidence index is a leading indicator for consumer spending, and an increase in the index is expected to lead to higher future expenditures, which is favorable for the Euro [1] - The data is released monthly by Eurostat, based on surveys of consumers regarding their financial situation and the national economy, and the next release is scheduled for October 23, 2025 [2] Group 2 - Historical data shows fluctuations in the consumer confidence index, with the most recent values indicating a trend of improvement from -15.5 to -14.9, which has a positive impact on gold, silver, and oil prices, as well as the Euro [2] - The previous months' data indicates a mixed impact on commodities and the Euro, with some months showing a decline in confidence leading to negative effects on gold, silver, and oil [2]